國(guó)際貿(mào)易外文翻譯--人民幣交易的復(fù)雜關(guān)系

1、<p><b>　　畢業(yè)論文</b></p><p>　　外 文 文 獻(xiàn) 翻 譯</p><p>　　系　 別 經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院 </p><p>　　專 業(yè) 班 國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易 </p><p>　　姓　 名　

2、 </p><p>　　評(píng) 分 </p><p>　　導(dǎo) 師（簽名） </p><p>　　2010 年 1 月 17 日</p><p>　　人民幣交易的復(fù)雜關(guān)系</p><p

3、>　　華盛頓批評(píng)北京匯率政策的人士認(rèn)為，人民幣兌美元大幅升值，會(huì)顯著縮小美國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差。 這種觀點(diǎn)能否得到歷史的檢驗(yàn)？ 支持上周三美國(guó)眾議院所通過(guò)法案的人認(rèn)為，北京拒絕讓人民幣兌美元升值，讓中國(guó)出口商品的美元價(jià)格低到競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手無(wú)法招架的程度，因而使美國(guó)形成了巨大的對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差。 華盛頓智庫(kù)彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所的所長(zhǎng)伯格斯坦，是主張針對(duì)中國(guó)匯率政策采取立法措施的最知名人士之一。他認(rèn)為，美國(guó)應(yīng)當(dāng)尋求“說(shuō)服”中國(guó)

4、允許人民幣在未來(lái)兩到三年升值20%到25%。 伯格斯坦9月15日在眾議院籌款委員會(huì)作證時(shí)說(shuō)，這會(huì)使中國(guó)的全球經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差減少3,500億美元到5,000億美元，美國(guó)的全球經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目逆差減少500億美元到1,200億美元。他說(shuō)，如果排除中國(guó)匯率的錯(cuò)配，美國(guó)將在未來(lái)幾年新增約50萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位，這些崗位主要集中于制造業(yè)，工資高于平均水平。 中國(guó)政府對(duì)這些說(shuō)法予以反駁，表示匯率在中美雙邊貿(mào)易余額中起到的作用很小。但中國(guó)官員同時(shí)警告

5、說(shuō)，如果人民幣大幅升值，中國(guó)出口行業(yè)可能會(huì)受到嚴(yán)重挫傷。溫家寶總理本月早些時(shí)候在美國(guó)發(fā)表演講時(shí)說(shuō)，中國(guó)承受不起人民幣的大幅升值。他認(rèn)</p><p><b>　　文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：</b></p><p>　　杰森·迪恩.人民幣匯率與美國(guó)對(duì)華逆差的復(fù)雜關(guān)系.中國(guó)實(shí)事報(bào). 2010年10月1日.</p><p>　　IMF：人民幣匯率被低估&l

6、t;/p><p>　　盡管中國(guó)決定采用“彈性”匯率，但國(guó)際貨幣基金組織官員表示，該組織拖延時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)的對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的觀察顯示，人民幣匯率“被大幅低估?！?國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的決定意在向北京施壓，讓人民幣更大幅度地升值。6月19日中國(guó)允許人民幣與美元脫鉤以來(lái)，人民幣僅升值0.7%。兩位了解這一決定的人士表示，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的決定受到美國(guó)、德國(guó)、法國(guó)和英國(guó)等國(guó)家的支持，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織執(zhí)行委員會(huì)周一討論了中國(guó)的報(bào)告，

7、不過(guò)這些國(guó)家中無(wú)一強(qiáng)迫中國(guó)快速提升人民幣匯率。 在中國(guó)，央行一直向公眾解釋說(shuō)，彈性匯率可以通過(guò)緩解通脹壓力、改善貨幣政策的效果來(lái)扶助經(jīng)濟(jì)。 周一在國(guó)際貨幣基金組織執(zhí)行委員會(huì)召開會(huì)議前，中國(guó)人民銀行副行長(zhǎng)胡曉煉在不到兩周內(nèi)發(fā)表第三次聲明，說(shuō)明上月政府決定允許人民幣與美元實(shí)際脫鉤的原因，中國(guó)出口企業(yè)和其他一些利益集團(tuán)公開反對(duì)人民幣匯率變化。 她的言論響應(yīng)了國(guó)際貨幣基金組織和全球其他機(jī)構(gòu)的論點(diǎn)，但從中國(guó)一位官員的口中說(shuō)

8、出有點(diǎn)不太尋常?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家彭星表示，這種公開聲明非常少見，胡曉煉講話的語(yǔ)氣實(shí)際上越來(lái)越強(qiáng)了。 目前還不清楚國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的決定是將加強(qiáng)北京方面匯率</p><p><b>　　文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：</b></p><p>　　鮑伯·戴維斯，艾倫·貝克. IMF：人民幣匯率被低估.華爾街日?qǐng)?bào). 2010年7月27日.</p>&l

9、t;p>　　The Yuan's Complicated Ties To Trade</p><p>　　Critics of Beijing's currency policy in Washington argue that a jump in the yuan's value against the dollar would have a big impact on China

10、's trade gap with the U.S. Does history back them up? Supporters of the bill that passed the House on Wednesday argue that Beijing's refusal to let the yuan rise again the U.S. currency is responsible for

11、 the massive size of America's trade deficit with China by making Chinese exports so much cheaper in dollar terms that rivals can't compete. C. </p><p>　　China's government rejects such argum

12、ents, saying the exchange rate plays little role in the bilateral balance of trade with the U.S. But Chinese officials also warn that a big jump in the yuan's value could severely damage China's export sector. Ch

13、ina cannot afford a big rise in the yuan, Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speechin the U.S. earlier this month, arguing that 20% to 40% jump in the yuan's value against the dollar would trigger a wave of job losses and

14、business bankruptcies that would ca</p><p>　　As the chart below indicates, the relationship between the yuan's value and China's trade surplus is actually not so clear.</p><p>　　China le

15、t the yuan rise 21% against the dollar between July 2005 and July 2008. During that time, China's trade surplus with the U.S. grew.Yes, grew substantially. In the first six months of 2008, before the appreciation end

16、ed, China's surplus with the U.S. was $119 billion, almost a third larger than the surplus in the first six months of 2005, before the appreciation began.</p><p>　　China's overall global trade surplu

17、s grew even faster. It totaled $295 billion for 2008, almost triple the $102 billion for 2005.</p><p>　　It was after the yuan stopped rising that China's trade surplus shrank-in the first half of 2009, a

18、s the worsening recession clobbered global demand for exports. China's overall trade surplus in 2009 narrowed by a third.</p><p>　　Yuan hawks acknowledge that the global downturn played a role in that sl

19、ump. But they argue that the skinnier surplus also reflected, in significant part, the delayed impact of the yuan's rise in 2005 to 2008. With the usual lags of two to three years, these currency corrections made imp

20、ortant contributions to the subsequent adjustments in trade imbalances,Bergsten said in his testimony.</p><p>　　If the yuan's stronger value were the culprit, one might expect the U.S. trade deficit with

21、 China to have contracted more than America's trade deficit with other countries during the recession. That didn't happen. The U.S. trade deficit with China shrank 15% in 2009, while the deficit with all other na

22、tions besides China halved. In other words, even with a pricier yuan, recession-battered America cut net spending on goods from the rest of the world by more than three times as much as it cut net </p><p>　　

23、The improvement in the U.S. trade balance in 2009 was far more likely due to the global recession than a lag effect of China's appreciation, John Frisbie, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council, which repre

24、sents companies that do business in China, said in his testimony to the Ways and Means committee.</p><p>　　There's little question that the yuan's value has some impact on trade. The question is how

25、much and whether it warrants the focus it has received. The dispute is between those who think price effects are the major determinant of trade flows, and those who think trade balances are ultimately determined by domes

26、tic patterns of savings and investment.</p><p>　　Opponents of the yuan legislation say the focus on currency is misguided. In a highly competitive world, there are no guarantees that currency shifts would be

27、 passed through to foreign customers in the form of price adjustments that might narrow trade imbalances, Stephen Roach, the non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia who is also a senior fellow at Yale, wrote in a N

28、ew York Times Op-Edthis week. He notes the dollar has fallen 23% (in inflation-adjusted terms) since 2002, yet America con</p><p>　　The two camps may yet get a chance to test their arguments. With pressure i

29、n Washington heating up, China let the yuan gain 1.7% against the dollar in September. If it continues at an average of even half that pace--a big 'if', it will have risen by the 25% Bergsten seeks by the end 201

30、2.</p><p><b>　　RESOURCE:</b></p><p>　　Jason Dean . The Yuan's Complicated Ties To Trade.China Realtime Report . October 1st 2010.</p><p>　　IMF Sees Yuan As Underval

31、ued</p><p>　　Despite China's decision to adopt a 'flexible' exchange rate, the International Monetary Fund's long-delayed review of the Chinese economy found that the yuan is 'substantial

32、ly undervalued,' according to IMF officials. The IMF determination is bound to put pressure on Beijing to let the currency appreciate more than the 0.7% it has risen since China loosened the yuan's peg to the

33、 dollar on June 19. The IMF determination was backed by the U.S., Germany, France, the U.K., among others, say two</p><p><b>　　RESOURCE:</b></p><p>　　Bob Davis, Arron Back. IMF Sees