外文翻譯----奧運(yùn)會(huì)里約能像北京那樣獲益良多嗎？

1、<p><b>　　本科畢業(yè)論文</b></p><p><b>　　外文文獻(xiàn)及譯文</b></p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)、資料題目：The Olympic Games: Will Rio Benefit as Much as Beijing</p><

2、p>　　文獻(xiàn)、資料來(lái)源： 國(guó)道數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)</p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)、資料發(fā)表（出版）日期： 2009.10.14</p><p>　　院 （部）： </p><p>　　專(zhuān) 業(yè)： </p><p>　　班 級(jí)： </p><p>　　姓

3、 名： </p><p>　　學(xué) 號(hào)： </p><p>　　指導(dǎo)教師： </p><p>　　翻譯日期： </p><p><b>　　外文文獻(xiàn)：　</b></p><p>　　The Olympic G

4、ames:Will Rio Benefit as Much as Beijing</p><p>　　For Brazil, winning the opportunity in late September to host the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro probably represents many of the same things that the

5、 2008 games did for China: a chance for the world to see that it is now an influential, modern country and a way to showcase -- domestically and internationally -- its remarkable economic growth. But do cities benefit as

6、 much from hosting Olympic Games as local residents and businesses alike are led to believe? Is the return on investment hi</p><p>　　There are no easy answers. One year after Beijing was host to sports stars

7、 from around the world, some analysts question whether China's capital city and all the stakeholders involved benefitted greatly from the games. Yet the feel-good factors are hard to ignore. For one thing, the Olympi

8、cs seem to have been useful for China from a marketing perspective, in terms of rallying people within the country and raising global awareness about “Brand China.” Simon Anholt, a government-reputation adviser</p>

9、<p>　　Observers also note that the timing of the 2008 event augured well for the organizers, saying the combination of public and private spending for the games may have acted as an early stimulus program before t

10、he global economic downturn began making a deeper impact later that year. “The global financial crisis overshadowed the Olympics, but from a Chinese perspective, the crisis was an external threat and the nationalistic or

11、gy of the Olympics gave [Chinese] leadership an extra boost in fending it</p><p>　　The government also used the games as a catalyst to clean up many environmentally unfriendly industries all over the country

12、 and to increase spending on public infrastructure, including transportation. “The Chinese government very cannily used the Olympics as a way to push environmental change in China,” says Shaun Rein, managing director of

13、the China Market Research Group, a Shanghai-based market research consultancy. Even Greenpeace, the activist environmental non-profit, gives Beijing high ma</p><p>　　Getting the Job Done</p><p>

14、　　But is this simply blurring the lines between what was the result of the Olympics and what should have been on the government’s to-do list anyway? “It is true that Beijing is cleaner and more so because of [the Olympic

15、s]. But the government did not need an excuse to do all these [things],” says Lin Bo Qiang, a professor at the Center of China Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University.</p><p>　　Jonathan Anderson, head

16、 of Asia-Pacific economics for UBS, says that Beijing is such a small city relative to the rest of the country -- representing 2.5% of national GDP and 1% of the population -- that the economic impact of the event was li

17、mited. “It was just too small of an event to really matter.” </p><p>　　And not all public relations was good. “The China brand got a lift as a result of the games mainly because of the flawless execution. So

18、 the positive perception is definitely one about Chinese capabilities in getting things done,” says Minxin Pei, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, California. “The facilities were

19、 finished on time and the games went on without a hitch. That's good news. The bad perception is about credibility -- the use of the ‘fake’ girl</p><p>　　Other incidents put the PR acumen of various glob

20、al sponsors to the test. Threatening to scupper their well-choreographed sponsorships, pre-game protests outside China over human rights issues in Tibet and Darfur, Sudan, with disruptions to the global torch procession

21、in Paris and elsewhere. In what became a politically sticky double threat, some sponsors found themselves caught between the risk of an international boycott of their products for supporting the Beijing games and the ris

22、k of a dome</p><p>　　Opinions regarding the return on investment for corporate sponsors are also divided. “Consumers didn’t really care and they didn’t really know who the official Olympics sponsors were,” s

23、ays Rein, who says many sponsors weren’t happy with their return on the Olympics. Yet Scott Kronick, president of the Ogilvy Beijing Group of Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide, notes that sales for two of the firm’s clie

24、nts who sponsored the Olympics – Adidas and UPS – grew dramatically during the Games, and UPS </p><p>　　For Sam Taylor, president of Reputation Dynamics, a New York-based corporate social responsibility (CSR

25、) consultancy, part of the difficulty for sponsors was the result of an ad hoc approach to CSR. “At the last Olympics, some companies had fragmented approaches toward developing social responsibility programs and alignin

26、g them around causes,” she says. One of her key lessons: Clear, consistent communications about the aim of their CSR programs at such events is critical. “While the Darfur situa</p><p>　　Domestic and regiona

27、l sponsors may have received a greater return on their investment. “For companies in emerging markets, Olympics sponsorship has become a badge of honor and ‘graduation party’ -- much the way it has long served for nation

28、al governments," says Terry of Cotton Tree Productions. "At least one of my clients, Chaoda, which supplied vegetables to the Olympic village and other venues, has made its ‘Olympic mission’ central to its mark

29、eting before and after. I suspect others are doing</p><p>　　The Games People Play</p><p>　　For host cities generally, sponsorship seems to be a mixed blessing. A number of studies by academics a

30、nd consultants suggest that Olympics-related economic growth is often a case of wishful thinking, and that positively-spun scenarios often don't differentiate short-term consumer spending from long-term growth. Notab

31、ly, cities are often left with costly yet unusable Olympics infrastructure once the party is over -- dormitories, specialized facilities, an oversupply of hotel rooms, to name a few</p><p>　　For Beijing, the

32、 financial and human costs of the 2008 Olympics were enormous: </p><p>　　More than 600,000 residents were displaced as old neighborhoods were razed to make way for the Olympic venues. And while the legacy in

33、cludes new subway lines, a new state-of-the-art stadium and a swimming and diving center, so far, only one event has been held in the 91,000-seat stadium -- a massive opera production -- and there is some talk that it co

34、uld eventually be converted into a shopping center.</p><p>　　Other host cities have much less to show for their efforts. The games in Athens -- costing approximately $14 billion -- went so far in the red tha

35、t the bills are still being paid, amounting to the equivalent of $70,000 per household, according to an estimate by U.K. newspaper The Independent. It took Montreal's residents until 2006 to pay off the $1 billion th

36、eir 1976 Olympics cost.</p><p>　　For the hosts’ countries, the value may be more positive, given that PR is managed well. Anholt says tourism in Australia jumped after the 2000 summer games in Sydney, in par

37、t because of a post-event publicity campaign touting the games' success. But for every Australia, there's a Greece, he notes. Greece failed to capitalize on the twin successes of the Athens 2004 games and its hos

38、ting of -- and victory in -- the European football championship that same year, “its greatest PR opportunity since</p><p>　　But despite the risks -- such as PR campaigns coming unstuck -- the upsides of host

39、ing the Olympics outnumber the downsides, particularly as the world climbs out of the economic downturn. A recent study by two economists -- Andrew Rose of the University of California, Berkeley, and Mark Spiegel of the

40、Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco -- found that after an Olympics, host countries’ export trade generally increases. In an examination of 196 countries’ economic performance between 1950 and 20</p><p>　　

41、Another big event, soccer's World Cup, has similarly attractive results. Non-sporting spectaculars, such as a World’s Fair -- which Shanghai is hosting in 2010 -- are also positively associated with national economic

42、 growth. Timing is important, however. The Olympic findings seem to hold true only for games held in the summer rather than winter. The economists suggest that the effect is partly because the spending and TV viewership

43、of the winter games tend to be smaller, and the events are hoste</p><p>　　If Rose and Spiegel are right, Brazil, the U.K. and China all have good economic times to look forward to as a result of their Olympi

44、c involvement. But what about the losers? For the likes of Chicago, Tokyo and other cities that don't win the chance to host an Olympic event, Rose and Spiegel say that simply the act of making a bid can have the sam

45、e positive effect on trade as hosting it does, with a lot less investment. They note, “The 'Olympic effect' on trade in the data is not associated with</p><p><b>　　中文譯文：</b></p>&l

46、t;p>　　奧運(yùn)會(huì)：里約能像北京那樣獲益良多嗎？</p><p>　　對(duì)巴西來(lái)說(shuō)，9月末贏得在里約熱內(nèi)盧主辦2016年夏季奧運(yùn)會(huì)的機(jī)會(huì)，可能意味著在很多方面會(huì)與2008年奧運(yùn)會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的意義相同：這是一個(gè)讓全世界看看自己已經(jīng)成了一個(gè)頗具影響力的現(xiàn)代國(guó)家的機(jī)會(huì)，同時(shí)，也是一個(gè)展示——既向國(guó)內(nèi)展示，同時(shí)也向國(guó)際社會(huì)展示——自己令人矚目的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的機(jī)會(huì)。但是，主辦城市真的像許多民眾和企業(yè)認(rèn)為的那樣，能從舉辦夏季奧運(yùn)

47、會(huì)上獲益良多嗎？奧運(yùn)會(huì)的投資回報(bào)真地能高到足以將數(shù)個(gè)月甚至數(shù)年準(zhǔn)備的投入收回的程度嗎？另外，北京能為里約熱內(nèi)盧和將來(lái)舉辦奧運(yùn)會(huì)的其他城市提供什么樣的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn)呢？</p><p>　　這些問(wèn)題并沒(méi)有簡(jiǎn)單的答案。在北京作為東道主，讓全世界的體育明星聚集一堂一年以后，就中國(guó)的首都以及其他所有的利益相關(guān)人（Stakeholder）是否從這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)上收益頗豐的問(wèn)題，有些分析家提出了質(zhì)疑。不過(guò)，人們很難對(duì)讓中國(guó)自我感覺(jué)良好

48、的諸多因素視而不見(jiàn)。首先，從市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)角度看來(lái)，從重振中國(guó)人的凝聚力以及提升全球?qū)Α爸袊?guó)品牌”（Brand China）認(rèn)知的角度來(lái)看，這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)頗有幫助。西蒙·安霍爾特（Simon Anholt）談到，他自己進(jìn)行的最新研究得到的初步成果表明，在經(jīng)歷了幾年的下跌之后，中國(guó)的國(guó)家品牌指數(shù)排名在奧運(yùn)會(huì)之后得到了提升，安霍爾特是一位政府聲譽(yù)顧問(wèn)，創(chuàng)建了包括50個(gè)國(guó)家的“安霍爾特-捷孚凱國(guó)家品牌指數(shù)”（Anholt-GfK Rop

49、er Nation Brands Index）（捷孚凱市場(chǎng)咨詢(xún)公司是一家總部位于德國(guó)紐倫堡的有80年歷史的全球性市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)——譯者注），這一指數(shù)是對(duì)國(guó)家聲譽(yù)進(jìn)行全球民意調(diào)查的結(jié)果。</p><p>　　觀察家們還指出，考慮到在這場(chǎng)全球性經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退在去年晚些時(shí)候造成更大的影響之前，針對(duì)這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)的公共開(kāi)支和個(gè)人消費(fèi)合起來(lái)，可能扮演了刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的早期角色，所以，對(duì)組織者來(lái)說(shuō)，2008年奧運(yùn)會(huì)的舉辦時(shí)機(jī)是個(gè)吉兆?！斑@

50、場(chǎng)全球性金融危機(jī)給這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)蒙上了陰影，但是，從中國(guó)的角度而言，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)只是個(gè)外部的威脅，這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)激起的民族主義熱潮，為中國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人擊退危機(jī)提供了額外的動(dòng)力?！奔t棉制作（Cotton Tree Productions）——一家設(shè)在香港、為東亞提供商業(yè)和公共事務(wù)咨詢(xún)顧問(wèn)服務(wù)的機(jī)構(gòu)——的董事總經(jīng)理伊迪絲?特里（Edith Terry）談到。</p><p>　　政府還將這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)當(dāng)作了在全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)清理很多對(duì)環(huán)境有害

51、的企業(yè)，以及增加包括交通運(yùn)輸設(shè)施在內(nèi)的公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投入的“催化劑”?！爸袊?guó)政府非常巧妙地將這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)當(dāng)作了推動(dòng)中國(guó)環(huán)境改善的契機(jī)。”位于上海的市場(chǎng)研究顧問(wèn)機(jī)構(gòu)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)研究集團(tuán)（China Market Research Group）的董事總經(jīng)理雷小山（Shaun Rein）談到。甚至連綠色和平組織（Greenpeace）——一個(gè)由環(huán)保積極分子構(gòu)成的非營(yíng)利性組織——也對(duì)北京的環(huán)境治理工作給予了高度評(píng)價(jià)，這些工作包括為汽車(chē)設(shè)定了全新的排放標(biāo)

52、準(zhǔn)、開(kāi)通了五條地鐵新線路，以及有近4，000輛公共汽車(chē)采用了清潔燃燒的壓縮天然氣。</p><p><b>　　完成工作</b></p><p>　　但是，這是不是將這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)的成果與政府本來(lái)就應(yīng)該做的工作之間的界限弄模糊了呢？“確實(shí)，北京變得更干凈了，這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)尤為功不可沒(méi)。可是，做這些工作，政府并不需要什么借口。”廈門(mén)大學(xué)中國(guó)能源經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心（the Center

53、 of China Energy Economics Research）的林伯強(qiáng)教授談到。</p><p>　　瑞銀集團(tuán)（UBS）亞太區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)師喬納森·安德森（Jonathan Anderson）認(rèn)為，與這個(gè)國(guó)家的其他部分比較起來(lái)，北京這個(gè)城市的規(guī)模還很小——其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值只占全國(guó)的2.5%，人口只占全國(guó)人口的1%，因此，這項(xiàng)活動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響是有限的。“這項(xiàng)活動(dòng)的規(guī)模太小了，實(shí)際上無(wú)足輕重。”</

54、p><p>　　此外，并不是所有的公共關(guān)系（public relations）活動(dòng)都會(huì)有出色的結(jié)果。“這次運(yùn)動(dòng)會(huì)之所以使中國(guó)品牌的地位有所提升，主要原因在于完美的執(zhí)行。所以，毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)給人的正面印象是中國(guó)人完成工作的能力?！蔽挥诩永Ｄ醽喼菘巳R蒙特（Claremont）的克萊蒙特麥肯納學(xué)院（Claremont McKenna College）政治學(xué)教授裴敏欣（Minxin Pei）談到?！案鞣N設(shè)施如期完成，

55、比賽沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)任何問(wèn)題。這些都是好消息。而這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)留給人的負(fù)面印象則是信譽(yù)問(wèn)題——開(kāi)幕式上推出了‘冒牌’女孩（假唱），以及圍繞女子體操運(yùn)動(dòng)員未到法定年齡問(wèn)題的造成了輿論大嘩。人們想知道的是，中國(guó)品牌是否還存在其他離奇古怪的東西?！?lt;/p><p>　　其他事件則讓各個(gè)全球贊助商的公共關(guān)系智慧經(jīng)受了考驗(yàn)。有人威脅，要摧毀它們精心策劃的贊助活動(dòng)，有人在奧運(yùn)會(huì)開(kāi)幕之前，就西藏和蘇丹達(dá)爾富爾（Darfur）地區(qū)的人權(quán)問(wèn)題

56、，以在巴黎和其他地方破壞奧運(yùn)火炬全球傳遞活動(dòng)的方式，在中國(guó)境外舉行了抗議活動(dòng)。在政治上頗為棘手的雙重威脅之間，有些贊助商深深陷入了兩種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的夾擊，一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是：它們對(duì)北京奧運(yùn)會(huì)的支持，會(huì)引起國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)其產(chǎn)品的抵制；另一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是：如果它們退出，那么，便會(huì)受到中國(guó)人在國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)它們的對(duì)抗。</p><p>　　有關(guān)奧運(yùn)會(huì)贊助商投資回報(bào)的觀點(diǎn)同樣存在很大分歧。“消費(fèi)者并不真的很在乎誰(shuí)是贊助商，他們并不知道到底誰(shuí)是奧運(yùn)會(huì)的的正

57、式贊助商。”雷小山還談到，很多贊助商對(duì)投資于本屆奧運(yùn)會(huì)的回報(bào)并不滿(mǎn)意。然而，奧美公共關(guān)系國(guó)際集團(tuán)（Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide）奧美北京集團(tuán)（Ogilvy Beijing Group）的總裁斯科特·克羅尼克（Scott Kronick）則談到，在奧運(yùn)會(huì)舉辦期間，為奧運(yùn)會(huì)提供贊助的兩個(gè)客戶(hù)——阿迪達(dá)斯公司（Adidas）和美國(guó)聯(lián)合包裹運(yùn)送服務(wù)公司（UPS）——的銷(xiāo)售額大幅增長(zhǎng)，美國(guó)聯(lián)合包裹運(yùn)

58、送服務(wù)公司已經(jīng)與2012年倫敦夏季奧運(yùn)會(huì)的組委會(huì)簽訂了贊助協(xié)議。“奧運(yùn)會(huì)以后，我還沒(méi)有聽(tīng)到有哪個(gè)贊助商為自己的贊助感到后悔的?！彼劦?。</p><p>　　信譽(yù)動(dòng)態(tài)公司（Reputation Dynamics）——一家設(shè)在紐約的企業(yè)社會(huì)責(zé)任（corporate social responsibility，簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)CSR）咨詢(xún)顧問(wèn)機(jī)構(gòu)——的總裁薩姆·泰勒（Sam Taylor）認(rèn)為，對(duì)贊助商來(lái)說(shuō)，有些麻煩在

59、于企業(yè)以某種特定方式承擔(dān)社會(huì)責(zé)任所帶來(lái)的結(jié)果?！霸谏蠈脢W運(yùn)會(huì)中，有些公司為了實(shí)施社會(huì)責(zé)任計(jì)劃，將其手段分割開(kāi)來(lái)，并圍繞各種事由分別應(yīng)用。”她談到。一個(gè)重要的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)是：在這樣的重大活動(dòng)中，企業(yè)就其社會(huì)責(zé)任的目標(biāo)進(jìn)行清楚、前后一致的溝通是至關(guān)重要的?！氨M管達(dá)爾富爾地區(qū)的局勢(shì)為這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)蒙上了陰影，不過(guò)，贊助商不應(yīng)該屈從于激進(jìn)主義分子的壓力，而應(yīng)該持保持續(xù)溝通，并確保自己對(duì)社會(huì)責(zé)任的承諾得以實(shí)現(xiàn)。”她談到。</p><p

60、>　　國(guó)內(nèi)贊助商和地區(qū)贊助商可能在其投資上獲得了豐厚的回報(bào)?！皩?duì)那些新興市場(chǎng)中的公司來(lái)說(shuō)，奧運(yùn)會(huì)贊助商資格已經(jīng)成了榮譽(yù)徽章和‘畢業(yè)典禮’，在很大程度上而言，這屆奧運(yùn)會(huì)一直承擔(dān)著國(guó)家政府的某些職能?！奔t棉制作的特里談到?！霸谖业目蛻?hù)中，至少有一個(gè)客戶(hù)——為奧運(yùn)村和其他比賽場(chǎng)所供應(yīng)蔬菜的朝達(dá)公司（音譯）——在奧運(yùn)會(huì)前后一直將‘奧運(yùn)任務(wù)’當(dāng)作市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)的核心。我覺(jué)得其他公司也一樣?！?lt;/p><p><b&g

61、t;　　人間游戲</b></p><p>　　總體而言，對(duì)主辦城市來(lái)說(shuō)，主辦奧運(yùn)會(huì)的結(jié)果似乎喜憂參半。學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)和咨詢(xún)顧問(wèn)的很多研究結(jié)果表明，與奧運(yùn)會(huì)相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)往往只是如意算盤(pán)，人們往往無(wú)法分辨，那些積極的動(dòng)態(tài)是來(lái)自短期的消費(fèi)性開(kāi)支，還是源于長(zhǎng)期的增長(zhǎng)。顯而易見(jiàn)的是，一旦奧運(yùn)會(huì)結(jié)束，主辦城市往往會(huì)留下花費(fèi)不菲但卻無(wú)法使用的奧運(yùn)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，比如，奧運(yùn)村，專(zhuān)門(mén)設(shè)施，以及過(guò)剩的旅館房間等等。盡管主辦城市已經(jīng)

62、從過(guò)去的錯(cuò)誤中吸取了教訓(xùn)，同時(shí)，為將這些設(shè)施轉(zhuǎn)化為新用途付出了更多的努力——比如，主辦1996年奧運(yùn)會(huì)的亞特蘭大，最后留下的是由私人投資興建的價(jià)值5億美元的全新公共建筑群和21英畝的公園——不過(guò)，減少損失的能力到底還不同于經(jīng)濟(jì)成果。</p><p>　　對(duì)北京來(lái)說(shuō)，主辦2008年奧運(yùn)會(huì)投入的財(cái)力和人力是巨大的：為了給奧運(yùn)會(huì)場(chǎng)館騰地方，老社區(qū)被夷為平地，60多萬(wàn)居民拆遷。盡管這次奧運(yùn)會(huì)留下的遺產(chǎn)包括全新的地鐵線路、

63、一個(gè)反映了現(xiàn)代水平的全新體育場(chǎng)以及一個(gè)游泳跳水中心，不過(guò)，截止到目前，在這座有91，000個(gè)座位的體育場(chǎng)中，只舉辦過(guò)一次大型活動(dòng)——一場(chǎng)歌劇演出，坊間傳言，這個(gè)體育場(chǎng)最終將被改造成一個(gè)購(gòu)物中心。</p><p>　　其他主辦城市的工作則乏善可陳。雅典奧運(yùn)會(huì)花費(fèi)了大致140億美元，截止到目前，這些債務(wù)依然沒(méi)有還清，據(jù)英國(guó)的《獨(dú)立報(bào)》（The Independent）估計(jì)，其債務(wù)總額已經(jīng)累加到了相當(dāng)于每個(gè)家庭負(fù)債7萬(wàn)

64、美元的水平。直到2006年，蒙特利爾的居民才將1976年奧運(yùn)會(huì)10億美元的花費(fèi)還清。對(duì)主辦國(guó)而言，如果能出色管理公共關(guān)系，那么，奧運(yùn)會(huì)就可能具有更積極的意義。安霍爾特談到，2000年悉尼夏季奧運(yùn)會(huì)結(jié)束以后，澳大利亞的旅游業(yè)得到了迅速發(fā)展，部分原因得益于奧運(yùn)會(huì)以后贊揚(yáng)運(yùn)動(dòng)會(huì)大獲成功的宣傳活動(dòng)。但是，他也談到，萬(wàn)物皆有時(shí)，有澳大利亞的成功，就有希臘的失敗。希臘就沒(méi)能有效利用2004年雅典奧運(yùn)會(huì)以及同一年主辦的歐洲杯足球賽——而且希臘在這次比

65、賽中撥得頭籌——所取得的成功?！澳鞘亲蕴芈逡粒═roy）大劫之后的最佳公共關(guān)系契機(jī)?！彼劦?。“可我去觀看奧運(yùn)會(huì)時(shí)，雅典向我傳遞的唯一信息就是：我們買(mǎi)得起很多煙火，我們對(duì)自己的遺產(chǎn)充滿(mǎn)自豪，我們把奧運(yùn)會(huì)組織得超乎你的想象。”換句話說(shuō)，在提升自己的國(guó)家形象方面，他們無(wú)所作為。</p><p>　　盡管存在這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——比如，公共關(guān)系宣傳活動(dòng)遭遇挫折——不過(guò)，主辦奧運(yùn)會(huì)的好處依然會(huì)超過(guò)負(fù)面影響，尤其是在全球正在擺脫經(jīng)濟(jì)

66、衰退的時(shí)候。兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家——加州大學(xué)伯克利分校（University of California，Berkeley）的安德魯·羅斯（Andrew Rose）和舊金山聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco）的馬克·斯皮戈?duì)枺∕ark Spiegel）——最近進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，奧運(yùn)會(huì)結(jié)束以后，主辦國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易通常都會(huì)出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。在對(duì)196個(gè)國(guó)家從1950年到2006年的經(jīng)

67、濟(jì)表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行研究以后，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，奧運(yùn)會(huì)前主辦國(guó)的出口比非主辦國(guó)的出口平均高出30%，他們從中發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種相關(guān)性“從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)上看很穩(wěn)定、持久，而且關(guān)聯(lián)性很強(qiáng)?！眾W運(yùn)會(huì)的作用還不止于此，“奧運(yùn)會(huì)不只扮演了促進(jìn)出口的角色，而且還促進(jìn)了主辦國(guó)與世界其他國(guó)家的雙邊貿(mào)易。”他們?cè)?009年4月一篇名為《奧運(yùn)會(huì)效應(yīng)》（The Olympic Effect）的論文中寫(xiě)道。羅斯和斯皮戈?duì)栒J(rèn)為，奧運(yùn)會(huì)相當(dāng)于向全球發(fā)出了一個(gè)積極的信號(hào)，盡管這個(gè)信號(hào)花費(fèi)不菲，即：這

68、個(gè)國(guó)家會(huì)真誠(chéng)吸引外國(guó)</p><p>　　足球世界杯（World Cup）等重大賽事也具有引人入勝的類(lèi)似效果。此外，非運(yùn)動(dòng)性的重大活動(dòng)，比如，世界博覽會(huì)——比如上海將主辦2010年世博會(huì)——同樣也會(huì)給主辦國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)積極影響。不過(guò)，時(shí)機(jī)很重要?？雌饋?lái)，奧運(yùn)會(huì)的研究成果只適用于夏季奧運(yùn)會(huì)，而不是冬奧會(huì)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為，之所以有這種效應(yīng)，部分原因在于冬季奧運(yùn)會(huì)的支出和電視收視率都相對(duì)較小，此外，冬季奧運(yùn)會(huì)都是由相

69、對(duì)較小的城市主辦的，比如，紐約的普萊西德湖（Lake Placid）（1932年第三屆、1980年第十三屆冬奧會(huì)舉辦城市——譯者注）以及法國(guó)的阿爾貝維爾（Albertville）（1992年第十六屆冬奧會(huì)舉辦城市——譯者注）。</p><p>　　如果羅斯和斯皮戈?duì)柺菍?duì)的，那么，巴西、英國(guó)和中國(guó)都將會(huì)看到奧運(yùn)會(huì)所帶來(lái)的良好經(jīng)濟(jì)前景?？墒?，那些申辦失敗的城市又怎么樣呢？羅斯和斯皮戈?duì)栒J(rèn)為，對(duì)芝加哥、東京以及其他未能