不確定環(huán)境下研發(fā)項目的決策分析.pdf

1、天津大學(xué)博士學(xué)位論文不確定環(huán)境下研發(fā)項目的決策分析姓名：伊長生申請學(xué)位級別：博士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：唐萬生20061201ABSTRACTIntheincre勰inglycompetiti、陀market，re8e缸chandde、，elopment(R&D)h嬲becomeasourceor缸impetllstom柚1tamngthecompetitivead啪tageform粕y垃dustri髑Thedecision—ma

2、娃ngs0fR&Dprojectsareu8uanymadeunderthe1lncertainconditions麗thhighriskbecausetheR&Dprojectsarea髓ctedbym鄴7衄certaillfactors，叭ch蠲m缸ket，techllique，capit出andmaterialTMs山ssertationijstoinve8tigatetheproblems0fselection，8chedlll

3、illgandill、resrtmentdeci8ionofR&Dprojectsunderuncertain何ThedetanedWorks牡edescribedasfoUoⅣsThemulticriteriaselectionmethodofR＆Dprojectsispresentedbasedonthef11zzysim：ulationTheselectiondeeisioⅡproe鉻80fR＆Dprojeetsisdjvided

4、intothestrate百cdecijsionperioda衛(wèi)dthetacticaldecisionperiodThefuzzypreferencemodelaⅡdfuzzy功【ulti—criteriaevaluationmodel盯e印pUedtoevaLluatethecandidateprojectsmthe鈿吣pemds，respectivelyFillallythe印timalR&Dprojecth硼tobe8elect

5、ediIlaccord麗ththe8trate目0fthe缸mTheprogramevaluationandreviewtechnique(PEf江)b韶ed0nthe缸zzysiInula上ionisdeVelopedto6ndthepossiblecriticalpa土hoftheR＆DprojectnetworkiIlwhichtheacti啊tiesdⅦrationstimesareassumedtobe負(fù)lzzyW血ables

6、Ontheotherhand，thecontiIlgencymodel璃presentedtoconsiderthefuzzynatureofchangeorders缸dtheirimpac乞oⅡtheschedllleofanR＆DprojectThefllzzysiⅡ1llla七ionisemployedto髑timatethe唧ectedv址ueandpe鏹i111isticVa玉ueofthetot札projectdelayIt

7、maybehelpfultotheprojectschedulingproblemofR&Dproject8atthee軀lystagesofprojectplanninga丑ddevelopmentTheoptimaLlstoppiIlgdecisionmodelsofR＆Dprojectsareconstmctedb嬲edontherenew址reWa州processesintherandomandrandomfIlzzyeⅡ、血。

8、衄ents，respectivelyThestoppingtimeandiIlvestmeⅡtstrate釘areconsideredasdeci一8ion證ables缸dthe砒erar】^、柚timesb咖eendiscoveries【jump8)are曲sumedtoberandom、，ariablesandrandom如【zzyvariables，re8pecti由elyThesiD啦ltane_ousperturbations

9、tochasticappro菇mation(SPSA)algorithmsb船edonsiIIullationtechIliqu鶴＆redesignedto80lvethemodelsFiIl礎(chǔ)ly，theⅡumeric址eX鋤ples甜epresentedtomllstratethee髓ctiven笛softhesemethodSThemultiperioddecisionmodelofanR&Dprojectij5coIlsider