版權(quán)說(shuō)明：本文檔由用戶提供并上傳，收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方，若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán)，請(qǐng)進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)
文檔簡(jiǎn)介
1、1KeynesGlobalImbalancesInternationalMoaryRefmToday凱恩斯、全球失衡與當(dāng)今國(guó)際貨幣體系改革凱恩斯、全球失衡與當(dāng)今國(guó)際貨幣體系改革RobertSkidelskyVijayJoshi羅伯特斯基德?tīng)査够S杰喬希RebalancingtheGlobalEconomy:APrimer[啟蒙書(shū)雷管底漆引線]fPolicymakingbyStijnClaessensSimonEvetBernardHoe
2、kman(eds)|WednesdayJune232010ThischapterarguesthattheKeynesPlanof1941fdealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsianUSimbalancestoday.JustasthefirstBrettonWoodssystemrestedona“grbargain”bet
3、weentheUSBritainanewBrettonWoodswouldtestthestatesmanshipoftheUSChina.TheProblemofGlobalImbalancesAsthewldtentativelyscrambles[快速爬行匍匐前進(jìn)攀登]outofthewstrecessionsinceWldWarIIthefutureofthewldmoarysystemremainsfirmlyofftheag
4、enda.Theglobaldownturnhadmanyinteractingcausesbutatenable[站得住腳的；合理的]viewisthattheaccumulationofreservesbyahfulofcountriesinEastAsiathedleEastplayedakeypermissiveroleinthecollapse.Between20032009(measurable)globalreserves
5、increasedfrom$2.6trillionto$6.8trillion–anaverageannualrateofincreaseofabout15%atatimewhenglobalGDPgrewatanannualrateof4.4%.Thisamountedtoabigincreaseindeflationarypressure.Howeverthefactthatthereserveswereheldmainlyindo
6、llarsallowedtheUStoavoiddeflationinsteadruna“Keynesian”domesticpolicywhichsetthestagefanunsustainableassetconsumptionboom.InshttherewasanexusconnectingreserveaccumulationbyChinaexpansionarymoaryfiscalpolicyintheUS.Thepur
7、poseofthischapteristohowthattheKeynesPlanof1941fdealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsianUSimbalancestoday.Itproposestwomechanismsfalleviatingthecurrentproblemof“symmetricalnonadjustme
8、nt”.ThefirstpartoftheessaywillexaminethehisticalcontextoftheKeynesPlanthebreakdownoftheBrettonWoodssystemthesecondwillanalysethepresentproblemofnonadjustmentstepswhichcanbetakentoovercomeit.TheKeynesPlanof1941Inthe1920sK
9、eyneshadcometoseedeflationasthemaincauseofBritishunemploymentthemainsourceofdeflationarypressureastheunbalancedcreditpositionoftheUS.Intheytheinternationalgoldstardwhichwasthecurrencyregimeofthetimeprovidedfautomaticsymm
10、etricaladjustmentofcurrentaccountimbalances.Priceswouldautomaticallyriseinthegoldgainingcountrieswouldautomaticallyfallinthegoldlosingcountriesthusrestingthe3prohibitcapitalexpts.Theywouldalsobegedinterestonexcessivedebi
11、ts.Ifallcountrieswereinperfectbalanceattheyear’sendthesumofbancbalanceswouldbeexactlyzero.TheKeynesplanwasvetoedbytheUSwhichwasnotpreparedtoallowits“hardearned”surplusestobeautomaticallyatthedisposalof“profligate”[揮霍的，放蕩
12、的]debtcountries.InsteadtheBrettonWoodsAgreementof1944setupanInternationalMoaryFundtoprovideshttermfinancialassistancefcountriesintemparybalanceofpaymentsdifficulties.TheIMFwasafundnotabankintowhichmemberswouldpaycontribu
13、tionsquotasmadeupofgolddomesticcurrencies.(ThetotalresourcesoftheFundweresetat$8bnasopposedto$25bn.fKeynes’ICB).TheFundwouldsupplyfeigncurrenciestomembersuptothelimitoftheirquotasprovidedtheycrectedtheirdomesticpolicies.
14、Parvaluesofcurrencieswouldbefixedintermsofgoldwhichcouldbealteredonlytocrecta“fundamentaldisequilibrium”.BoththeKeynesPlantheIMFsystemreliedoncapitalcontrolstopreventthedestabilisingflowsof“hotmoney”.Thecrucialpointwasth
15、atwhileacceptingtheideaoffixedbutadjustableexchangeratestheFundprovidednomechanismtostoppersistentreserveaccumulation.Itupheld[支持，維持，贊同，確認(rèn)]thatisthethodoxdoctrineofdebtadjustmenttothatextentfailedtosolvetheKeynesproblemo
16、fpersistentcredithoarding.Thecontrastbetweenthetwoplanswasdeliberate.FKeynestheBritishtheproblemwhichbroughtdownthegoldstardin1931hadarisenfromtherefusalofthesurpluscountriestospendtheirsurplusesftheAmericansithadarisenf
17、romthemoaryindisciplineofthedeficitcountries.TheBrettonWoodssysteminpracticeThattheBrettonWoodsfixedexchangeratesystemwhichlastedfrom1949to1971didnotreproducethedeflationaryacteroftheinterwarsystemwasduetothegeneralcommi
18、tmentofgovernmentstofullemploymentpoliciesbackedbythe“dishoarding”policiesoftheUS.Americafloodedthe“free”wldwithdollarstosuchanextentthatbythelate1960sitwasstartingtorunabalanceoftradedeficititself.Thebootwasnowontheothe
19、rfootbuttheneedfthedeficitcountry(nowtheUSA)todeflatewascircumventedbytheroleofthedollarasthewld’smainreserveasset.AsitstradedeficitwidenedtheUSAprintedanincreasingquantityofdollarstocoveritsunrequited[單方面的，單相思的]impts.Th
20、esurpluscountriesaccumulatedAmericandollarliabilitieswhichtheyinvestedinUSTreasurybonds.TheUSdidnothavetorestrictdomesticcreditbyraisinginterestratessincethedollarsitprintedcamebacktoit.Intheabsenceofwhatwouldhavebeenama
21、jdeflationaryfcethewldeconomyboomedftwentyyears.TheflawinthesystemaspointedoutbyProfessTriffinofYaleUniversitywasthattheincreaseintheliabilitiesofthekeycurrencycountrywasboundtoraisedoubtsaboutitsabilitytoredeemtheseliab
22、ilitiesingold.Attheendofthe1960stheFrenchstartedconvertingtheirdollarreservesintogold.Thisbroughtaboutthepredictedcollapseofthegoldexchangestardin1971.Thedollarbecameinconvertible.Anewsupplementaryinternationalreservecur
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無(wú)特殊說(shuō)明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請(qǐng)下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請(qǐng)聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網(wǎng)頁(yè)內(nèi)容里面會(huì)有圖紙預(yù)覽，若沒(méi)有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒(méi)有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 眾賞文庫(kù)僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)空間，僅對(duì)用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理，對(duì)用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對(duì)任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容，請(qǐng)與我們聯(lián)系，我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對(duì)自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
評(píng)論
0/150
提交評(píng)論