巴克萊-美股-銀行業(yè)-美國大型銀行業(yè)會(huì)議評(píng)論關(guān)鍵要點(diǎn)、公司總結(jié)與投票結(jié)果-2018.9.17-67頁

1、EquityResearch17September2018CEBarclaysCapitalInc.oneofitsaffiliatesdoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectiv

2、ityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)IMPTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE61.U.S.LargeCapBanksConferenceReview–KeyTakeawaysCompanyRecapsP

3、ollingResultsBankstocksappearunderownedunloved.Attendanceatour16thAnnualGlobalFinancialServicesConferencedeclined7%fromlastyear.ThepercentageofinvestssurveyedattheConferencethatsaidtheywere“veryoverweight“stoodatamere3%d

4、ownfrom6%in201714%in2016.ThepercentageofrespondentswhothoughtU.S.financialservicesstockwould“outperfm”overnext12monthsdeclinedfrom63%in2015to56%in2016to45%in2017to35%in2018.CFGCMARFSTIMTBwerethemostunderownednameswhileBA

5、CWFCJPMCPNCwerethemostowned.BACfollowedbyWFCJPMCatwerethemostoverweighednameswhileCFGFITBSTIMTBNTRSweretheleast.RelativetolastyearRFKEYFITBsawthelargestincreasesinpercentagepointsofthoseoverweightwhileNTRSSTIBACPNCCFGCMA

6、witnessedthegreatestreductions.Banksofferedtheirinitialtakeon3Q18EPS.Generallyspeakingbankstalkedtostabletomodestlyhigherinterestincomereflectingcontinuedbutmodestaverageloangrowth(broadbasedbytypegeography)stabletomodes

7、tlywiderinterestmargins(mostbanksstillassetsensitivebetasareincreasingatameasuredpacebutlackofLibincreaseweighs)1extradayvariedfeeincometrends(higherservicegesassetmanagementtrustfeesbutmemixedresultsftradinginvestmentba

8、nkingmtgage)controlledexpenses(efficiencyimprovementsbranchrationalizationmodestlyoffsetbytechspendpositiveoperatingleveragecontinuesDIFreductionmelikelya4Q18event)higherloanlossprovisions(reservereleasescannotgoonfever)

9、thoughstillverybenignassetqualitymetrics(loanlossesarelessthanhalftheirhisticalaverage)apickupinsharerepurchase(medianbankbuyingback5.8%ofitssharesinCCAR2018upfrom4.5%inCCAR2017).3Q18EPSestimatebiasatthiseventcontinuesto

10、belower.Weincreaseour3Q18EPSestimatesatJPM($0.03)USB($0.01)butlowerestimatesatSTT($0.09)STI($0.03)BK($0.02)KEY($0.01)CMA($0.01).AtJPMhigherthanexpectedinterestincomeinvestmentbankingrevenuesassetmanagementfeesmethanoffse

11、tlowertradingrevenueswhileUSBlookstobeturningthecnerwithboardbasedrevenuegrowthimprovingoperatingleverage.StillwemodestlylowerestimatesatSTIBKKEYCMAonreducedinterestincomeexpectationsaswellasatSTT(CRDshareissuanceBLKloss

12、).Stillwefeltourcoveragewasgenerallyconstructivelookingout.MostpointedtocontinuedhighsinglelowdoubledigitEPSgrowth(singledigitrevenuegrowthpositiveoperatingleveragebenignassetqualityactivesharerepurchase)competitivetechn

13、ologyadvantages(economiesofscalesallowfinvestmentsinmobiledigitalAIetc)animprovingregulatybackatanattractivevaluation(sub70%relativePEallinyieldofover8.5%sub2xtangibledespite17.4%ROTCE).INDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.LargeCapBanksPOS

14、ITIVEUnchangedFafulllistofourratingspricetargetearningschangesinthisreptpleaseseetableonpage2.U.S.LargeCapBanksJasonM.GoldbergCFA12125268580jason.goldberg@BCIUSInnaBlyakher12125263904inna.blyakher@BCIUSMatthewKesselhaut1

15、2125260181matthew.kesselhaut@BCIUSEugeneKoysman12125260971Eugene.Koysman@BCIUSBrianMtonCFA12125262163brian.mton@BCIUSBarclays|U.S.LargeCapBanks17September20183ExecutiveSummary–NewCompanyDisclosuresFIGURE1KeyNewCompanyDis

16、closuresSource:BarclaysResearchTicker3Q18EPSchangeKeynewdisclosuresALLY$0.00Positiveoperatingperfmancein1Q182Q18hascarriedinto3Q18.Resultstrackinginlinewithexpectations.Depositsexpectedtogrowth2Q18to3Q18.BAC$0.00Wellposi

17、tionedtogrowitsleadershippositionwithmassaffluenttohighwthclients.StrongestMerrillLynchhouseholdacquisitionin5years.BBT$0.00Reiterated3Q18expectationsof46%annualizedloangrowthslightlyhigherNIMfrom2Q1835%yoyfeeincomegrowt

18、h13%yoyexpensegrowth.BK($0.02)Expects3Q18interestincomegrowthtobeatthelowerendofitstohighsingledigityoyguidanceDepositsstillbelow2Q18levelsbutbalanceshavestabilizedoflate.C$0.00ExpectstoachieveROTCEof10.5%in201812.0%in20

19、1913.5%in2020.PreviouslysaiditexpectedanROTCEof“approaching10.5%”in2018“uptoroughly12%”in2019“atleast13%”in2020.Increaseditslongertermtargetfrom14%to16%.Expectsatleast$2.8bnofexpensessavingsby2020upfromthe$2.5bnitlaidout

20、lastyear.Targetinganefficiencyratioof57%in201855%in201953%in2020.Expects3Q18tradingrevenuestobeflattoslightlyhigherthan3Q17butexpectsInvestmentBankingfeetobesomewhatlowerthanlastyear.CFG$0.003Q18isplayingoutlargelytheway

21、itexpectedtrackingtowardstheguidancethatitpreviouslygave.CMA($0.01)interestincomeexpectedtoincreasein3Q18despiteaverageloansdown1.2%QTDotherheadwinds(increasedliquiditylessrecoverieslongtermdebtissuance).Revealedits4Q18s

22、harerepurchasetargetisupto$500mnmatchingwhatitdidin3Q18.UnveiledaCET1targetof9.5%10.0%byyearend2019.COF$0.00HurricaneFlencecausedittocancelpresentationFITB$0.00Seeingverygooddlemarketcommercialactivitywithstrongpipelines

23、resultinginhealthyloangrowthf3Q18.GS$0.00PuttingupsolidresultsontheInvestmentBankingfrontwhileitscurrenttradingresultslikelyreflectthesummersluggishnessasvolumesin3Q18arerunningbelowthatof1H18.HBAN$0.00Reiterateditsannua

24、lloangrowthexpectationof5.56.5%stillexpects24bpsofNIMexpansionthisyear.Neverthelesswilllikelybeatthelowendofits56%revenuegrowthexpectation.ExpecttoimproveitslongtermROTCEefficiencyratiotargetsnearterm.JPM$0.03Expectstrad

25、ingrevenuesin3Q18todeclinebysingledigitsyoyfromagood3Q17(downlessthanthatadjustingftaxeffects).IBfeesin3Q18couldbestabletohigherfromaverystrong3Q17.Expectsinterestincometobecloserto$55.5bnin2018(8%yoy)upfrominitialexpect

26、ationof$54$55bn.Expectstoexceeditsinitialexpectationof7%annualfeeincomegrowththisyearwithresultspotentiallycloserto8%.Expectsexpensestoexceeditsinitialexpectationsof$63bncomeincloserto$63.5bnwiththemajityoftheincreasesis

27、revenuerelated.KEY($0.01)Notedattheendof2Q18itscommercialloanbalanceswerelowerdrivenbyutilizationratesbeingdownassomeofthetaxrefmbenefitwasusedtopaydowndebt.Thislowerlevelofutilizationrateshascontinuedinto3Q18.Whileitdid

28、n’tchangeitsfullyearloanguidanceitdoesexpectittobeatthelowerendoftherange.Expectstoapproachthehighendofits5456%cashefficiencyratiotargetbyyearend2018.MS$0.00Tradesinthesamemarketsascompetits.MTB$0.00Expectsaverageloangro

29、wthtobeapproximatelyflatin2018downfrompriexpectationsofupslightly.Seeslowsingledigitgrowthincommercialconsumerloansoffsetbycontinuedresidentialmtgagerunoff.NTRS$0.00Expects3Q18interestincometobeflattomodestlylowerfrom2Q1

30、8.Throughthefirst2monthsofthequarterithaswitnessedlowernoninterestbearingdeposits.AdditionallystablelibupwardpressureondepositpricingahigherNIIdragfromitsFXtradeshouldweigh.ThroughAugusttheequitymarketshavebeenfavablebot

31、hfthecurrentquarteraswellaslookingatmonthlagquarterlagperfmances.PNC$0.00NotedstrengthinCnarroweditsfeeincomegrowthoperatingleveragetaxrateassumptionslowereditsdepositgrowthexpectations.ReiterateditsloangrowthexpenseNCOe

32、xpectationsfmalizeditsinterestincomeguidance.STI($0.03)Expectsinterestmargintobeflattodown1bpfrom2Q18to3Q18comparedtopriexpectationsofstabletoup2bps.In2Q18sawgrowthinitsC&ICREconsumerptfolios.Whilethosetrendsarecontinuin

33、gin3Q18itnotedthepacehasslowed.Stillexpectstoseeatangibleefficiencyratioofunder60%befetheendof2019comparedto61%in2017.STT($0.09)Expects2018interestincomegrowthtobetowardtheupperendofitsfullyearguidanceof10%to13%(was20%in

34、1H18).NotedtheBLKAUCexitcostitalmost$10mnfrom2Q18theremovalofitsfinaltranchein3Q18isexpectedtocostitanother$20$25mnsequentially($0.03incremental).EstimatealsoadjustedfCRDshareissuance.USB$0.01IncreaseditsROCEtargetto14.5

35、17.5%from13.516.5%.Expectstoachievepositiveoperatingleveragein3Q18.Alsowhileitexpectstoseeonlyslightlypositiveoperatingleveragein2018comparedtoslightlynegativelastyearitseesitimprovingto100150bpsin2019withfurtherexpansio

36、npossibleovertime.BothNIIfeeincomeareexpectedtogrowbylowsingledigitsyoyin3Q18whileloansNIMshouldrisesequentially.WFC$0.00F3Q18C&ICREloansexpectedtobedownfrom2Q18whileinterestincomemarginshouldbestable.Expectsmodestgrowth

37、inservicegesin3Q18.Mtgageiginationsexpectedtobestablein3Q18withahighermargin.Hasrepurchased2.6%ofitssharesQTD.Resultsin3Q18toincludea$0.04benefitfrompickapaysalepreferredredemptionremediationaccrual.Reiterated20182019exp