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1、ContentsPIVOTALQUESTIONS...................................................................................4Q:CanChina’srailwaysystemgeneratereasonablereturns......................4WhatprogressisChinasrailwaysystemmaking
2、...................5OverviewofChina’srailwaysystem.............................................................5Financialsstillweakbutimprovementswitnessed........................................6Aggressiveexpansionleads
3、tohighleverage...............................................8WhatcanChinalearnfromdevelopedcountries..................10ChinasHSRlengthdominatewhileoperationsstilltoimprove..................10CasestudyofJapan:privatisat
4、ionisthekeydriver.....................................16CasestudyofEurope:deregulationasalongtermcatalyst.......................20WhatcandevelopingcountrieslearnfromChina.................22HSRoperationmightitselfgenerate
5、goodreturns.....................................22Whatsbeyondthefinancialbenefits.......................................................23Leveragingthecapitalmarkettofinancerailwayinvestments....................27Casestu
6、diesofChineseHSRs.......................................................................29WHATSPRICEDIN.........................................................33ChinarailwayrelatedresearchreviewChinaRailwaydetailedanaly
7、sis#3:HowwillhighwaytorailwayconversionaffectfreighttransptationinChina1142019ChinaRailwaydetailedanalysis#2:UBSEvidenceLab:WhatdidweobservefromouranalysisofHSRcommutetimes832018ChinaRailwaydetailedanalysis#1:UBSEvidence
8、Lab:howsignificantisthehighspeedrailwaywkeffect732018ChinaConstruction:UBSEvidenceLabinside:frombuilderstooperatswhatisthemarketmissinginPPP5292019ChinaRailway:UBSEvidenceLabInside:readthroughsfromtheChinadomestictravels
9、urvey3112019ChinaRailway:Whatcanweexpectfromrailwayrefm352019ChinaRailway:Revisingup2020railwayFAItoRmb850bnahisticalhigh892018ChinaRailwaySectUBSResearchPIVOTALQUESTIONSreturn?Q:CanChina’srailwaysystemgeneratereasonable
10、returnsUBSVIEWYes.Wethinkreasonablefinancialreturnscouldbeachievedbyincreasingvolumetariffsleveragingrailwaywksrefmingtariffstructures.Ontopofthefinancialreturnswebelievetherearealsosignificanteconomicsocialbenefitswhich
11、tendtobedifficulttoquantify.WeconsiderChinasHSRexpansionareplicablemodelfotherdevelopingcountries.EVIDENCE1)UBSEvidenceLabscommutingtimeanalysisof172HSRlinesfeedbackfromtravellersinitsdomestictravelsurveysuggesthigheruti
12、lisationofHSRsapotentialHSRwkexpansion.2)OurcasestudiesofJapan’sEuropesrailwaysystemsindicateflexibletariffschemesadiversifiedbusinesscouldhelpimproveoperatingprofits.3)OurindepthanalysisofHSR’sreturnshighlightsvariousbe
13、nefitsofanaggressiveexpansionoftheHSRwkincludingboostingtourismacceleratingurbanisationalleviatingpoverty.4)OurcasestudiesoftwoofChinasmostprofitableHSRsalsoChinasrailwayfootprintsabroadsuggestChina’sHSRmodelisaprofitabl
14、ebusinessmodelfotherdevelopingcountriestofollow.WHATSPRICEDINWethinkthemarkethasbeencautiousaboutChineseHSR’slowreturnhighleverage.Inadditionwesuggestthemarketdoesnotexpectrailwayrefmstoincreasetariffspromoteassetinjecti
15、onsfChina’sexistingrailwayoperatsasthishasbeendelayedfalongtime.InveststendtoquestionthehighleverageofChinasrailwaysystemespeciallythegovernmentsfocusonHSRinthepastdecade.UBSEvidenceLab’sproprietaryanalysisofrailwaysyste
16、msinChinaJapanEuropeindicatedthat:1)Chinahasthemostextensiverailwaywkinthewldbutitspricingoperatingmechanismstillhaveroomtoimprove2)thereisfinancialupsideinoperatingHSRsthroughvolumetariffimprovementswhilecostsarerelativ
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