2016-2045年新興科技趨勢(shì).emerging science and technology trends 2016-2045 - a synthesis of leading forecasts

1、,,,,,,,,Emerging Science and Technology Trends: 2016-2045A Synthesis of Leading ForecastsOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology),APRIL 2016,,,,,,This report was prepared f

2、or the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology) by FutureScout, LLC, astrategy and analytics firm specializing in helping organizations understand emerging trends and how to prepare strategical

3、ly to thrive in the face of an uncertain future. Questions regarding the preparation of this report may be directed to:Dr. Jason Augustyn President, FutureScout LLC (571) 730-0992jason@futurescoutllc.comThis report

4、 was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Army. Neither the United States Army nor any component thereof, nor any of its contractors or subcontractors makes any warranty for the accuracy, complet

5、eness, or any third party’s use of the information contained herein. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does notnecessarily con

6、stitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Army or any componentthereof or its contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily

7、 state or reflect official views or policies of the United States Army.,DISCLAIMER,,,,,,,,TABLE OF CONTENTS,ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045,EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..........................................

8、...........................1BACKGROUND ..................................................................................2EMERGING S&T TRENDS .................................................................3CROSS

9、-CUTTING THEMES...............................................................9CONCLUSION................................................................................... 12APPENDIX A: BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................

10、.................................... 14APPENDIX B: ANALYSIS METHODS............................................. 16TREND CARDS................................................................................. 18,,This i

11、s the third annual report on emerging trends in science and technology (S&T) published by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology (DASA R&T). As in prior years, the report has two p

12、rimary objectives. First, it is intended to inform leaders across the U.S. Army and stakeholders in the joint, interagency, and international community about S&T trends that are likely to influence the future operati

13、ng environment and shape warfighting capabilities over the next 30 years. Second, it is intended to spark strategic dialogue around the kind of S&T investments the Army should make to ensure that our Soldiers maintai

14、n overmatch in future operations.This 2016 version of the S&T Strategic Trends report synthesizes 32 S&T forecasts that have been published over the past five years by government agencies in the U.S. and abroa

15、d, industry leaders,international institutions, and think tanks. The objective was to identify trends that are most likely to generate revolutionary or disruptive change of interest to the Army over the next 30 years. B

16、y consolidating multiple trend analyses into a single reference document, this report aims to provide a ready reference for Army leadership as it considers the important role S&T will play in shaping the future of ou

17、r Army.Analysis of the source documents produced 690 individual trends related to science and technology, as well as trends related to broader contextual factors that will shape the evolution of S&T over the coming

18、 decades. From this data set, 24 emerging science and technology trends were identified:,ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045,1,In addition to these emerging S&T trends, this report discusses six broad

19、 contextual forces that are likely to shape the evolution of science and technology over the next 30 years: urbanization, climate change, resource constraints, shifting demographics, the globalization of innovation, and

20、the rise of a global middle class.As with previous editions of the S&T Strategic Trends report, a set of “trend cards” are included in this report. These cards provide additional detail on the S&T trends, inclu

21、ding a synopsis of each trend, alongwith summaries of enabling S&T domains, recent developments that signal how each trend might evolve, and a high-level consideration of the impacts each trend might have on societ

22、y, politics, economics,the environment, and defense. These trend cards provide a convenient reference for trends that have the most potential for influencingArmy capabilities and the future operating environment.Scie

23、nce and technology are part of a system of driving forces that will change many aspects of the world over the next 30 years. While it is impossible to accurately predict the future in detail, the trends discussed in this

24、 report will influence the course of global change with ramifications for the U.S. Army. The intent behind the analysis presented here is to inform Army leadership about where the future might be headed, and by doing so,

25、 support strategic thinking about how best to prepare the force for the road ahead.Point of ContactQuestions regarding this report should be directed to:Aaron Chan(Acting) Director, Technology Wargaming and Manufa

26、cturing Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army(Research & Technology)ASA(ALT) SAAL-ZT 703-697-0427aaron.m.chan2.civ@mail.mil,EXECUTIVE SUMMARY,Robotics and autonomous systemsAdditive manufacturingA

27、nalyticsHuman augmentationMobile and cloud computingMedical advancesCyberEnergySmart citiesInternet of thingsFood and water technologyQuantum computingSocial empowerment,Advanced digitalBlended realityTechnol

28、ogy for climate changeAdvanced materialsNovel weaponrySpaceSynthetic biologyChanging nature of workPrivacyEducationTransportation and logistics,,1. Mahnken, T.G. (2010). Technology and the American Way of War

29、 Since 1945. NY: Colum bia University Press.,ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045,2,This is the third annual report on emerging trends in science and technology (S&T) published by the Deputy Assistant

30、Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology (DASA R&T). As in prior years, the report has two primary objectives. First, it is intended to inform leaders across the U.S. Army and stakeholders in the joint, inte

31、ragency, and international community about S&T trends that are likely to influence the future operating environment and shape Army capabilities overthe next 30 years. Second, it is intended to spark strategic dialog

32、ue around the kind of S&T investments the Army should make to ensure that our Soldiers maintain overmatch in future operations. This report is part of the DASA R&T’s broader Technology Wargaming program, which se

33、eks to provide strategic foresight research and analysisin support of both S&T investment planning and Unified Quest, the Army’s annual future study program sponsored by the Chief of Staff and conducted by the Army

34、Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC).We stand on the cusp of technological revolutions on multiple fronts, in fields as diverse as robotics and synthetic biology. Technology has been central to the American way of w

35、ar throughout the nation’s history,1and it is safe to assume that scientific and technological advancements will remain an important foundation for U.S. Army capabilities over the next 30 years and beyond. At the same t

36、ime, the global economic and political landscape is undergoing the most profound realignment since the fall of the Soviet Union. The United States military has long relied on an overwhelming advantage in research, develo

37、pment, and innovation that is unlikely to persist much longer. As China, Russia, and other nations modernize their militaries through investments in science and technology, it will become essential for the U.S. Army to m

38、ake the most effective use of S&T investments to stay ahead of emerging threats.Effective investment strategies start with an understanding of emerging trends. Therefore, the aim of this edition of the S&T Stra

39、tegic Trends report is to identify the major trends in science and technology that are likely to influence Army capabilities and the future operating environment over the next 30 years. The approach toward identifying t

40、hese trends involved a comprehensive review and synthesis of open source forecasts published by government agencies in the U.S. and abroad, industry analysts, think tanks, and academic organizations. These institutions a

41、re also grappling with the influence of S&T on social, political, economic, environmental, and defense-related issues, and an analysis of the documents they produce reveals a number of common themes. Rather than dupl

42、icating the numerous S&T-related forecasts conducted by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, U.K. Ministry of Defense, the McKinsey Global Institute, and other major organizations, this report seeks to leverage t

43、heir collective insights to identify trends that will impact the U.S. Army.,In that vein, a comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify trend forecasts published by foreign and domestic government agencies,

44、 industry analysts, academic organizations, and think tanks.A total of 32 reports were selected based on the following criteria:All of the reports had to be the product of rigorous and well- documented research conduc

45、ted by reputable organizations with a track record of producing high-quality trend analysis.All of the reports had to have been published within the past 5 years.All of the reports had to address science and technolo

46、gy trends that could influence Army operations and the future operating environment over the next 30 years.All of the reports had to address a wide range of science and technology trends. Narrow forecasts related to hi

47、ghly specific industries or technology domains were not included in this analysis.Appendix A provides a complete bibliography of the sources that were used to conduct this synthesis of emerging science and technology t

48、rends. Overall, 9 sources were carried over from the 2015 Emerging Trends report, while 23 new sources were added. A content analysis of these documents (described in Appendix B) identified 690 specific trends related t

49、o science and technology as well as societal, economic, environmental, and political trends that are likely to shape the context in which scientific and technological developments will occur. Further analysis of the tren

50、d data revealed 24 common science and technology “mega-trends” that have the potential to shape future Army operations and the future operating environment. The analysis also identified six cross-cutting contextual tren

51、ds that will influence how science and technology could evolve. Details on the analysis methodology are presented in Appendix B.The remainder of this report is divided into two primary sections. The first section revie

52、ws the science and technology trends that were identified through the synthesis of open source forecasts. As with the 2015 Trends report, a set of “trend cards” has been prepared that summarizes each of these trends. Th

53、e cards, which are appended to the end of this report, provide a brief synopsis of each trend, review key scientific and technical enablers of the trend, highlight recentdevelopments that signal how each trend might evo

54、lve over the coming decades, and review some of the impacts that each trend might have on society, politics, the economy, the environment, and national defense. The second section of the report reviews six contextual tre

55、nds that appeared as common themes in many of the source documents. These trends speak to broader undercurrents that will shape the nexus among S&T, sociopolitical change, and national security through 2045.,BACKGROU

56、ND,,An analysis of the source reports identified 20 core S&T trends that will influence the world over the next 30 years:Robotics and Autonomous SystemsBy 2045, robots and autonomous systems are likely to be comm

57、onplace. Autonomous vehicles will make transportation safer and more efficient, while possibly fueling the rise of the sharing economy. Robots willcare for the elderly, deliver groceries, harvest crops, maintain public

58、infrastructure, and provide many other services that touch everyday life. Intelligent software agents, or “bots”, will extract insights from terabytes of data, automate business processes, and step into customer service,

59、 teaching, and other roles traditionally seen as “people-centric”. However, the rise of autonomous systems could displace hundreds of millions of labor and service workers, creating economic instability and the riskof s

60、ocial unrest. Networked autonomous systems will also become an attractive target for adversaries and a new priority for cyberdefense. The use of robots in military operations will expand as robotic systems gain mobility,

61、 dexterity, and intelligence, making robots effective partnerson future battlefields. At the same time, adversaries will use robots and autonomous systems in ways that challenge us ethically and tactically.Additive Ma

62、nufacturingAdditive manufacturing (3D printing) has been used in industry for over 30 years, mostly as a tool for limited-run prototyping. However, there has been remarkable innovation in 3D printing technology over t

63、he past ten years. Prices for 3D printers are falling, and the availability of open source tools and 3D models from online marketplaces likeThingiverse has fostered the growth of a vibrant community of hobbyist “makers”

64、 who are pushing the boundaries of what this technology can do. By 2040, 3D printers will be able to print objects that incorporate multiple materials, electronics, batteries, and other components. People will be able to

65、 print tools, electronics, replacement parts, medical devices, and other products on demand, customized to their wants and needs. Military logistics will likely become streamlined, as equipment and supplies will be prin

66、ted directly at their point of use. Objects will become information, and digital piracy will replace shoplifting. Terrorists and criminal organizations will print weapons, sensors, and other equipment using raw materials

67、 that will be almost impossible to track.AnalyticsIn 2015, the world generated 4.4 zetabytes of data (4.4 trillion gigabytes), and this figure is expected to roughly double every two years. This flood of data holds d

68、eep insights into consumer behavior, public health, climate change, and a range of other economic, social, and political challenges.,However, while “Big Data” has become a buzzword, less than 10% of data generated each y

69、ear ever gets analyzed. Over the next 30 years our ability to make better use of massive, dynamic data sets will improve. Automated bots will crawl unstructured data, identifying relationships that are visualized in imme

70、rsive virtual datascapes. Analytics will spread beyond the enterprise, as people gain the ability to apply big data to their personal lives. Citizens will have the ability to use data to hold governments and other major

71、institutions accountable, leading to tensions over data access. The rise of hyper-personalized marketing, government surveillance of citizens’ data trails, and high profile cases of data loss could fuel growing concerns

72、over data ownership. Potential adversaries will use data thatis stolen, purchased off dark networks, or accessed freely from open sources to compromise security and challenge U.S. defense capabilities.Human Augmentati

73、onOver the next 30 years, technology will allow us to transcend biological limits on human potential. Wearable devices connected through the Internet of Things will deliver context-sensitive information overlaid direct

74、ly onto our senses. Exoskeletons and brain-interfaced prosthetics will make us stronger and restore mobility to the elderly and infirm. Sensors and computers embedded in contact lenses and permanent implants will let us

75、 hear whispers behind walls, give us natural night vision, and allow us to immerse ourselves in virtual and augmented realities.Nootropic drugs will expand our cognitive abilities and transform work and education. Of co

76、urse, augmentation technology will come at a price, and those who cannot afford to upgrade their “human chassis” might find themselves unable to compete in the augmented economy. Networked augmentations will also be an a

77、ppealing target for hackers looking to control over our very minds and bodies. While the U.S. Army will benefit from augmenting its Soldiers, the force will face adversaries who are similarly enhanced, and an augmentatio