基于LAPS系統(tǒng)與云模式結(jié)合的冰雹天氣分析及預(yù)警研究.pdf

1、南京信息工程大學碩士學位論文基于LAPS系統(tǒng)與云模式結(jié)合的冰雹天氣分析及預(yù)警研究姓名：向玉春申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：氣象學指導教師：楊軍20100401AbstractTheLocalAnalysisandPredictionSystem(LAPS)introducedandtranslatedbyWuhanInstituteofHeavyRainintegratesavarietyofobserveddataincentralChin

2、aandprovidesrichinformationonhighresolutionmeso—scaleanalysisfieldSeveralhailweatherprocessesareanalyzedbasedontheLAPSdataandhailstormcloudissimulatedwiththethreedimensionalconvectivecloudmodelinitiatedwiththeoutputofLAP

3、S，comparingwitllthesounding，radarsurfaceobservations，throughwhichtostudytheapplicabilityandsuperiorityofLAPSdataonhailweatheranalysisandcloudmodelandthecharacteristicsofhailonwesternHubeimountainThentheindicatorsforhailf

4、orecastingbasedonLAPSandthemodelareproposedandexaminedtoseeknewapproachtowarninghailandcommandingthehailsuppressionoperations111eresultsshowthatLAPSdatahavecertainadvantage$forhailanalysisLAPSinformationshowthatbeforehai

5、locculTencethemoistureconverged，verticalmovementintensified，thesurfacetemperatureincreased，thermalinstabilityintensifiedCAPEisaccumulatedrapidlyandreachedaveryhi出valueandCINdecreasesquicklyLargeverticalwindsheartendstole

6、adtheoccurrenceoflargerhailhoweverwhentheCAPEisstrongenough，hailwillalsoappeareveniftheverticalwindshearisweakTheoutputofLAPSCanprovidehighertemporalandspatialresolutiondataforthethreedimensionalconvectivecloudmodelthant

7、hesoundingobservationsThethree—dimensionalconvectivecloudmodelinitiatedwiththeLAPSdatanearthehailoccurrencetimeshowedagoodperformanceofreproducingthecharacteristicsoftheoccurrenceanddevelopmentofhailcloud，what’Smore，itCa

8、ncapturesomecertaindetailssuchasseveraltimesofincreasementwhichWasagreementwiththeradarobservations，whichcontributetowarningconditionforhailsuppressionoperationandseedingschemeThepredictionresultsbasedontheforecastindica