2010年--外文翻譯--阿德萊德地區(qū)老年人的分布情況及其對(duì)提供服務(wù)的意義（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文2100字,1300單詞，7000英文字符</p><p>　　出處：Somenahalli S V C, Shipton M D, Bruce D. Investigating the spatial distribution of the elderly and its implications for service provision in Adelaide Metropolit

2、an Area[J]. Australasian Transport Research Forum Canberra Act Australia, 2010.</p><p>　　Investigating the Spatial Distribution of the Elderly and its Implications for Service Provision in Adelaide Metropoli

3、tan Area</p><p>　　Dr. Somenahalli, Sekhar V C1, Shipton, Matthew D2 and Assoc. Prof. Bruce, David3</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　South Australia's population str

4、ucture is set to change substantially over the next 50 years as the ageing of the baby boomer generation substantially increases the number of elderly households.</p><p>　　Elderly people are less likely to t

5、ravel long distances or make complex trips and consequently their level of access to services is often less than that of younger people living in the same area. An appropriate residential location may therefore be more c

6、ritical in old age than at any other time in life.</p><p>　　This research uses GIS software to quantify twenty variables that the literature suggests impact elderly residential location decisions. It then ex

7、amines how well each of these variables explains the current distribution of Adelaide’s elderly population. The focus of the research is on the impact of service accessibility on elderly residential distribution. The res

8、ults are used to build a conceptual framework of elderly migration that can assist decision makers in State Government, as well as ot</p><p>　　The research finds that the distribution of people aged 75 years

9、 and over is explained better by an area's access to services than it is by socio-economic, migration or housing related data. The results enable the importance of specific services to be ranked for four elderly age

10、groups (55-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85+).</p><p>　　Key words: Ageing, Elderly, Services, Accessibility, Population modelling, Liveability, Adelaide, South Australia.</p><p>　　Introduction</p>

11、<p>　　South Australia's population structure is set to change substantially over the next 50 years as the ageing of the baby boomer generation substantially increases the number of elderly households. This popu

12、lation ageing has made elderly migration more significant in absolute terms, contributing to heightened interest in the migration and residential location decisions of elderly people.</p><p>　　The need to me

13、et the service requirements of the growing elderly population is vital to the success of the Government's commitment to sustainable mobility. It is also vital since independence is fundamentally important for elderly

14、 people to retain a high quality of life as their income, health and mobility levels change (Metz, 2000 and Titheridge 2009).</p><p>　　Mobility typically decreases with age. Elderly people are less likely to

15、 travel long distances or make complex trips and consequently their level of access to services is often less than that of younger people living in the same area. An appropriate residential location may therefore be more

16、 critical in old age than at any other time in life.</p><p>　　Older people consider similar issues when they think about moving to a different suburb. For example: does the new suburb have many other elderly

17、 people living there; are there many</p><p>　　suitable one or two person dwellings in the suburb; what are the rents/property prices in the suburb and is there good access to health facilities, shopping ar

18、eas, public transportation and leisure activities? This research quantifies twenty variables, including those just listed, and examines how well each explains the current distribution of Adelaide’s elderly population. Th

19、e focus of the research is on the impact of service accessibility on elderly residential choice. The results are used to </p><p>　　Better understanding the distribution of Adelaide’s elderly population will

20、enable future growth of this population to be better managed. The findings of this paper therefore have important implications for elderly service provision and social infrastructure investment in Adelaide.</p>&l

21、t;p>　　Population Ageing</p><p>　　Since the baby-boom generation began entering school in the 1950s, it has been followed closely by marketers, policymakers, and political consultants (Frey, 2000). In the

22、next ten years many early boomers, born between 1945 and 1955, will retire from regular jobs as they make the transition from empty-nesters to retirees.</p><p>　　Between 2006 and 2011 the proportion of Sout

23、h Australia’s population aged over 65 will grow by 2.3% per annum, more than twice as fast as the total population. Between 2011 and 2021 it will grow at more than double this rate as the baby boomers move en-masse into

24、the 65 plus age group (ABS, 2008). Thereafter growth rates of the 65+ population will decrease to 1.73% in 2006-31. By 2056 25% of South Australia’s population is expected to be aged 65 years or over (in 2008 this value

25、was 15%) (ABS, 2</p><p>　　Elderly Residential Mobility</p><p>　　Place is integral to how old age is experienced and constructed (Kontos, 2000). The fit between the functional capacity of individ

26、uals and their living environments often weakens between retirement and old age (Meyer, 1985). It is well established in the literature that when elderly individuals cope inadequately with their environment there are thr

27、ee main options for improving their situation; Lawton (1982) described these as follows:</p><p>　　To increase the capability of the individual to cope with their situation;</p><p>　　To modify th

28、e individual's current housing environment to make it more manageable;</p><p>　　To move the individuals to a new residence that better fits their functional capacity. With regard to moving house (option

29、3 above) the elderly are less geographically mobile than younger persons (Bryant & El-Attar 1984). This is seen in the fact that relocation rates among adults generally decline steadily with age (ABS, 2008). Between

30、1996 and 2001, census data reveals that 21% of Australians aged 65 and over moved residence, about 4% each year (Olsberg & Winters 2005). Although this figure ma</p><p>　　One of the unique features of po

31、st retirement residential mobility is that many of the key triggers which initiate movement at younger ages are not applicable. Movement among the aged, for example, is typically not connected to career opportunities, ne

32、w marriages, or growth in family size. In contrast to younger adults, the elderly are most likely to move for amenities, to receive assistance from others, or to prepare for ageing by seeking out more suitable environmen

33、ts such as smaller housing u</p><p>　　Wiseman (1980) developed a behavioural model defining the elderly relocation process. The model splits the process into a set of interrelated decisions: when to move, wh

34、ere to move and decisions concerning living arrangements. In addition to these there is also arguably a</p><p>　　decision regarding the size and location of the ‘search space’, that is the area in which an i

35、ndividual looks for housing options. The search space is constructed by rules set by the individual such as proximity to a railway station or family members residence.</p><p>　　Litwak and Longino (1987) adva

36、nced Wiseman’s model by placing the residential mobility of older persons in a developmental perspective with three stages when mobility is likely. The first stage follows retirement, when there is no longer the need to

37、be near the place of work and so retirees are able to move to more desirable locations that were not previously practical. This move is typically facilitated by the loss of dependents from the house (i.e. children move o

38、ut) which gives more freedom i</p><p>　　阿德萊德地區(qū)老年人的分布情況及其對(duì)提供服務(wù)的意義</p><p>　　Dr. Somenahalli, Sekhar V C, Shipton, Matthew D and Assoc. Prof. Bruce, David</p><p>　　嬰兒潮時(shí)代人的老齡化大大增加了老年家庭數(shù)

39、量，澳大利亞南部人口結(jié)構(gòu)在未來(lái)50年內(nèi)勢(shì)必會(huì)出現(xiàn)巨大變化。</p><p>　　老年人不太傾向于路途遠(yuǎn)或者太復(fù)雜的旅行。而且在同一區(qū)域內(nèi)，老年人使用服務(wù)的頻率常常低于年輕人。人到晚年，一個(gè)適宜的居所也許比其他任何東西都更重要。</p><p>　　本研究采用GIS軟件來(lái)計(jì)量20個(gè)變量，因?yàn)橛醒芯空J(rèn)為這些變量會(huì)影響老年人選擇住所位置的決定。接著檢驗(yàn)這些變量如何準(zhǔn)確解釋阿德萊德地區(qū)目前的老年人

40、口分布狀況。本文重點(diǎn)研究服務(wù)便利性對(duì)老年人住所的影響。研究結(jié)果將會(huì)用于構(gòu)建一個(gè)老年人遷移的概念框架，從而協(xié)助州政府進(jìn)行政策決策。同時(shí)對(duì)于那些致力于有策略地提高阿德萊德都市地區(qū)老年人生活質(zhì)量的利益相關(guān)者也是有所裨益的。</p><p>　　本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，關(guān)于75歲及以上老年人的分布狀況，更可能是受該地區(qū)的服務(wù)便利性影響而非社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、遷移或住房相關(guān)因素。研究結(jié)果將具體服務(wù)項(xiàng)目的重要性劃分為四個(gè)老年年齡組。（55-64,

41、65-74,75-84,85+）</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：老齡化，老年人，服務(wù)，便利性，人口模型，宜居性，阿德萊德，澳大利亞南部。</p><p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　隨著嬰兒潮時(shí)代人的老齡化，老年家庭的數(shù)量大大增加，因此澳大利亞南部的人口結(jié)構(gòu)在未來(lái)50年內(nèi)一定會(huì)發(fā)生巨大變化。這種人口老齡化在某些方面使得老年人遷移

42、更加重要，有助于提升老年人對(duì)于遷移和住所選址的興趣。</p><p>　　滿足不斷增長(zhǎng)的老年人口對(duì)服務(wù)的要求，對(duì)于政府成功實(shí)現(xiàn)人口可持續(xù)流動(dòng)至關(guān)重要。隨著老年人口的收入水平、健康狀況和遷移率發(fā)生改變，獨(dú)立性是老年人保持高品質(zhì)生活重要條件，因此滿足他們的服務(wù)要求很重要。（Metz2000,Titheridge2009)</p><p>　　人口的流動(dòng)性隨年齡的增長(zhǎng)而下降。老年人更不傾向于長(zhǎng)途

43、旅行或者過(guò)程太復(fù)雜的旅行。因此在同一區(qū)域內(nèi)，老年人對(duì)服務(wù)的使用程度常常不及年輕人。因此，人到晚年或許會(huì)比其他任何年齡階段都更加需要一個(gè)舒適的居住環(huán)境。</p><p>　　老年人在考慮搬去別的住宅區(qū)時(shí)，也在考慮類似的問(wèn)題。比如：新的住宅區(qū)有沒(méi)有很多老年人呢？那里會(huì)不會(huì)有一兩個(gè)意氣相投的人？那里的租金或者物業(yè)價(jià)格如何？醫(yī)療設(shè)施、購(gòu)物、公共交通和娛樂(lè)設(shè)施是否便利？本研究共使用20個(gè)變量，（包括上文列出的）檢驗(yàn)每個(gè)變量

44、如何準(zhǔn)確解釋目前阿德萊德地區(qū)老年人口的分布。本研究著重探討服務(wù)便利性對(duì)老年人選擇住宅的影響。研究結(jié)果將會(huì)用于（從做決定的角度）構(gòu)建一個(gè)老年人遷移的概念框架。關(guān)于老年人移民決定過(guò)程的概括將會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)換為未來(lái)適用的移民模式。</p><p>　　加深對(duì)阿德萊德老年人口分布情況的理解有助于未來(lái)更好地處理人口增長(zhǎng)。本研究結(jié)果對(duì)為阿德萊德地區(qū)老年人提供服務(wù)以及投資該地區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施都有重要意義。</p><p&

45、gt;<b>　　人口老齡化</b></p><p>　　自從嬰兒潮時(shí)代人于20世紀(jì)50年代開(kāi)始入學(xué)，就受到了商人，政策決策者，和政治顧問(wèn)的密切關(guān)注。（Frey，2000）在未來(lái)10年里，很多出生于1954到1955年間的人們將會(huì)退休，就像他們由空巢老人轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橥诵輪T工一樣。 </p><p>　　在2006年到2011年間，澳大利亞南部超過(guò)65歲的人口比例每年將會(huì)增長(zhǎng)

46、2.3%，比總?cè)丝谠鏊倏煲槐丁?011年到2021年，隨著嬰兒潮時(shí)代人集體步入65歲以上高齡，該比例會(huì)以兩倍的速度增長(zhǎng)。（ABS，2008）此后，在2006-2031年間，65歲以上人口的增長(zhǎng)率就會(huì)下降到1.73%。到2056年，預(yù)計(jì)澳大利亞南部達(dá)到或超過(guò)65歲的人口會(huì)占25%（2008年只有15%）（ABS，2008）。預(yù)計(jì)超過(guò)75歲的人口增長(zhǎng)速度也會(huì)很快，在2011-2021和2021-2026兩個(gè)階段每年都會(huì)超過(guò)4%。</p

47、><p><b>　　老年人住所的機(jī)動(dòng)性</b></p><p>　　住所的建筑和歷時(shí)問(wèn)題都很重要（Kontos 2000)。個(gè)體機(jī)能與其居住環(huán)境之間的契合度常常在退休和晚年時(shí)期下降。（Meyer,1985) 研究指出，當(dāng)老年人不能很好地適應(yīng)居住環(huán)境時(shí)，可以采用三種方法改善情況，Lawton將其描述為：</p><p>　　提高個(gè)體應(yīng)對(duì)狀況的能力；

48、</p><p>　　將個(gè)體目前的住房環(huán)境改善得更整潔。</p><p>　　個(gè)體搬入更適合其行動(dòng)能力的新住處。</p><p>　　在搬房子（選項(xiàng)3）這件事上，老年人的地理位置上的機(jī)動(dòng)靈活性就不如年輕人。</p><p>　　（Bryant&El-Attar 1984). 事實(shí)上，成年人遷居的頻率總體上也是隨年齡的增長(zhǎng)而穩(wěn)定下降的。

49、（ABS 2008）。澳大利亞1996到2001年的人口普查數(shù)據(jù)顯示，65歲及以上人口中有21%的人遷居，每年遷居人口約有4%。（Olsberg&Winters2005）盡管按某些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)說(shuō)這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)相較于其他年齡層偏小，但依舊可以看出有相當(dāng)大一部分老年人在遷居。</p><p>　　退休后住所機(jī)動(dòng)性的獨(dú)有特征之一就是，很多年輕時(shí)候刺激遷居的動(dòng)機(jī)都不再適用了。比方說(shuō)，老年人遷居基本上與工作機(jī)會(huì)，結(jié)婚或者生孩子

50、無(wú)關(guān)。與年輕人不同的是，老年人遷居多是為了住得舒服、便于他人陪護(hù)、或者為了找個(gè)更適合安享晚年的環(huán)境（比如一所小點(diǎn)的房子）。（Meyer&Speare1985)</p><p>　　Wiseman（1980）開(kāi)發(fā)了一種解釋老年人遷居過(guò)程的行為模式。該模式將遷居過(guò)程分為一系列互相關(guān)聯(lián)的決定：何時(shí)搬家，搬去何處以及與生活安排相關(guān)的決定。除此之外，無(wú)疑還有一個(gè)關(guān)于搜索空間的大小和位置的決定，搜索空間就是個(gè)體尋找住

51、房選擇的區(qū)域。搜索空間由個(gè)體提出的各種要求組成，比如靠近地鐵站或者家人住所。</p><p>　　Litwak和Longino（1987）用發(fā)展的眼光分三個(gè)階段看待老年人的住所機(jī)動(dòng)性，進(jìn)一步發(fā)展了WiSeeman的模型。第一個(gè)階段是退休后，此時(shí)住所不再需要靠近工作地，因此老年人可以搬到從前不能搬的、更心儀的地方去住。由于不再依賴住房（因?yàn)楹⒆影岢鋈プ。?，老年人在選擇住所時(shí)更自由，也有了對(duì)小戶型房屋的需求。（Dun