國際投資與國際貿(mào)易中的產(chǎn)品周期【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　　（2011屆）</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）</p><p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p>　　INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN THE PRODUCT CYCLE* <

2、/p><p>　　RAYMOND VERNON </p><p>　　Location of new products,191.-The maturing product,1996.-The standardized product,202.</p><p>　　Anyone who has sought to understand the shifts in inte

3、rnational trade and international investment over the past twenty years has chafed from time to time under an acute sense of the inadequacy of the available analytical tools. While the comparative cost con-cept and other

4、 basic concepts have rarely failed to provide help, they have usually carried the analyst only a very little toward adequate understanding. For the most part, it has necessary to formulate new concepts in order to explo

5、re iss</p><p>　　As theorists have groped for some been a flowering in international trade more efficient tools and capital theory.There has But the very proliferation of theory has increased the urgency of t

6、he search for uning concepts. It is doubtful that we shall find ositions that can match the application of the theory of many prop-simplicity, power, and universality of comparative advantage and the inter-national equil

7、ibrating mechanism; but unless the search for better tools goes on, the usefulness of eco</p><p>　　The present paper deals with one promising line of generalization and synthesis which seems to me to have be

8、en somewhat neglected by the main stream of trade theory. It puts less emphasis upon comparative cost doctrine and more upon the timing of innovation, the effects of scale economies, and the roles of ignorance and uncert

9、ainty in influencing trade patterns. It is an approach with respectable sponsorship, deriving bits and pieces of its inspiration from the writing sof such persons as Willia</p><p>　　Emphases of this sort see

10、m first to have appeared when economists were searching for an explanation of what looked like a persistent, structural shortage of dollars in the world. When the shortage proved ephemeral in the late 1950s, many of the

11、ideas which the shortage had stimulated were tossed overboard as primaacie wrong.Never- theless, one cannot be exposed to the main currents of international trade for very long without feeling that any theory which negle

12、cted the roles of innovation, scale</p><p>　　THE STANDARDIZED PRODUCT</p><p>　　Figure I(ithas been omitted) , the reader will have observed, carries a panel which suggests that, at an advanced s

13、tage in the standardization of some products, the less-developed countries may offer competitive advantages as a production location.</p><p>　　This is a bold projection, which seems on first blush to be whol

14、ly at variance with the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. According to that theorem, one presumably ought to anticipate that the ex-ports of the less-developed countries would tend to be relatively Labor-intensive products.</p

15、><p>　　One of the difficulties with the theorem, however, is that it leaves marketing considerations out of account. One reason for the omission is evident. As long as knowledge is regarded as a free good, inst

16、antaneously available, and as long as individual producers are regarded as atomistic contributors to the total supply, marketing problems cannot be expected to find much of a place in economic theory. In projecting the p

17、atterns of export from less-developed areas, however, we cannot afford to dis</p><p>　　If we can assume that highly standardized products tend to have a well-articulated, easily accessible international mark

18、et and to sell largely on the basis of price (an assumption inherent in the definition)，then it follows that such products will not pose the problem of market information quite so acutely for the less-developed countries

19、. This establishes a necessary if not a sufficient condition for investment in such industries.</p><p>　　Of course, foreign investors seeking an optimum location for a captive facility may not have to concer

20、n themselves too much with questions of market information; presumably, they are thoroughly familiar with the marketing end of the business and are looking for a low-cost captive source of supply. In that case, the low c

21、ost of labor may be the initial attraction drawing the investor to less-developed areas. But other limitations in such areas, accord-ing to our hypothesis, will bias such captive</p><p>　　In speculating abou

22、t future industrial exports from the less- developed areas, therefore, we are led to think of products with a fairly clear-cut set of economic characteristics.Their production function is such as to require significant i

23、nputs of labor; otherwise there is no reason to expect a lower production cost in less-developed countries. At the same time, they are products with a high price elasticity of demand for the output of individual firms;ot

24、herwise, there is no strong incentive to </p><p><b>　　......</b></p><p>　　Accordingly, one may say that from the entrepreneur's view-point certain systematic and predictable &quo

25、t;imperfections" of the capital markets may reduce or eliminate the capital-shortage handicap which is characteristic of the less-developed countries; and, further, that as a result of the reduction or elimination s

26、uch countries may find themselves in a position to compete effectively in the export of certain standardized capital-intensive goods. This is not the statement of another paradox; it is </p><p>　　* * * *

27、 *</p><p>　　Like the other observations which have preceded, these views about the likely patterns of exports by the less-developed countries are attempts to relax some of the constraints imposed by purer an

28、d simpler models. Here and there, the hypotheses take on plausibility because they jibe with the record of past events. But, for the most part, they are still speculative in nature, having been subjected to tests of a ve

29、ry low order of rigorousness. What is needed, obviously, is continued probing to dete</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　國際投資與國際貿(mào)易中的產(chǎn)品周期</p><p><b>　　弗農(nóng)</b></p&g

30、t;<p>　　目前國際投資與國際貿(mào)易相關(guān)領(lǐng)域研究的學(xué)者都試圖尋找另一種理論或方法論或分析工具，以便比當(dāng)前已有的理論研究更能夠解釋過去二十多年里國際貿(mào)易與國際投資的動態(tài)過程及其模式轉(zhuǎn)變現(xiàn)象。相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的分析師對比較成本的分析及一些未經(jīng)處理過的概念定義，對于這方面的探討研究，有一定的幫助，但是不是很大。國際貿(mào)易與國際投資作為進(jìn)口替代發(fā)展模式的優(yōu)勢、發(fā)展過程，投資與貿(mào)易對共同市場的影響，以及一些其他重要的問題，有必要作出新定義或

31、概念，以進(jìn)一步研究。這也是里昂惕夫悖論的根本原因。</p><p>　　許多關(guān)于解釋國際投資與國際貿(mào)易更有效的手段工具及其資本模式，作為理論在慢慢地發(fā)展起來中，但有極擴(kuò)散理論增加了搜索的概念緊迫性。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，可以匹配的許多簡單而有效方法、經(jīng)濟(jì)理論，如普遍性的比較優(yōu)勢及國家間平衡機(jī)制理論，發(fā)現(xiàn)國際貿(mào)易和資本流動是下降的趨勢。這個問題是值得懷疑的。</p><p>　　概括和綜合地說，我希望本

32、文論述路線能成為貿(mào)易理研究論的一個主流路線。旨在通過比較成本學(xué)說，強(qiáng)調(diào)以較少的時間獲取更多先進(jìn)技術(shù)或工藝創(chuàng)新或組織管理創(chuàng)新，通過規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)，稍稍地不明顯地在影響著貿(mào)易模式。威廉姆斯，金德爾伯格，麥克杜格爾，霍夫邁耶，林德和布倫等人在這些方面都做過研究，這是值得肯定的。</p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們對于國際上出現(xiàn)的美元供需不平衡現(xiàn)象，試圖在探討研究這是一個持續(xù)的可能現(xiàn)象，還是只是一種結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺表現(xiàn)。二十世紀(jì)五十

33、年代末出現(xiàn)短暫性短缺的事實(shí)，證明了短缺在刺激許多人的思想，甚至將它作為錯誤認(rèn)識摒棄掉了，然而，卻暴露出人們對國際貿(mào)易的主流理論基礎(chǔ)的不穩(wěn)定性的忽視，也沒有任何理論或模式的創(chuàng)新。</p><p><b>　　標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化產(chǎn)品</b></p><p>　　圖一（圖略）各種曲線軌跡表明，處于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化高級階段某些產(chǎn)品，欠發(fā)達(dá)的國家或地區(qū)與發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)相比，作為該產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)基地存在著

34、明顯的競爭優(yōu)勢。</p><p>　　這一觀點(diǎn)看法似乎是與赫克歇爾一俄林定理完全相反。根據(jù)這一定理，預(yù)期到欠發(fā)達(dá)的國家或地區(qū)的港口往往會對勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)需求增加。這是一個對未來的國際投資與國際貿(mào)易某方面的大膽預(yù)測。</p><p>　　然而，該定理的困難之一，遺漏的一個原因是顯而易見，就是它留下的市場信息全面性、可靠性的考慮。只要知識長期被看作是可以即時即用的自由使用的美好東西，個體生產(chǎn)者

35、則會被視為是總供應(yīng)的貢獻(xiàn)者，那么市場營銷問題，就難以在經(jīng)濟(jì)理論中找到一個適當(dāng)?shù)牡匚换蛄隽恕Ｔ陬A(yù)測欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)的出口模式，我們不能無視一個事實(shí)，就是以調(diào)查海外未知市場信息而付出一定的代價，這是企業(yè)難以處理的事情。他們不希望冒險進(jìn)入陌生市場，所以會要求可靠的、全面的、多方位的遠(yuǎn)程數(shù)據(jù)的不斷流入到組織決策總部作為其對外投資與貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略選擇的參考研究。</p><p>　　我們可以這么假設(shè)（假設(shè)這是其中的一個固有的定

36、義），高度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的產(chǎn)品往往容易進(jìn)入欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)的市場，并借以價格優(yōu)勢擴(kuò)大其在市場上的份額。那么可以得出這樣的定論：這些產(chǎn)品不會構(gòu)成對欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)產(chǎn)生敏感性的市場信息等問題。在那么多行業(yè)投資、多元化投資的條件下，更有必要對這些假設(shè)及其得出的邏輯推論進(jìn)行更進(jìn)一步的研究。</p><p>　　當(dāng)然，外國投資者會根據(jù)企業(yè)的市場營銷信息和供給成本最低原則來推測投資設(shè)廠的最佳位置。在這種情況下，欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)的低勞

37、動力成本，對國際投資者有很大的吸引力。但是，根據(jù)我們的假設(shè)，這些國家或地區(qū)存在另外的對國際投資或區(qū)域投資有限制性的因素，如文化差異、習(xí)俗偏見，對高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化產(chǎn)品會有掠得心里或排斥情感。在這種情況下，就是所說的外部經(jīng)濟(jì)體在生產(chǎn)過程中所扮演的角色。在投資建設(shè)、生產(chǎn)制造過程中，經(jīng)濟(jì)要素的投入及制度規(guī)范的約束，如勞動力、技術(shù)工、能源、設(shè)備、工業(yè)原料采購按照嚴(yán)格的規(guī)范，等等，這些對于欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)是沒有必要有太多的規(guī)定性要求。問題就是，大多數(shù)的工業(yè)過程都

38、要求一種或幾種主要要素來配置生產(chǎn)工序。而我的猜測是一個獨(dú)立的產(chǎn)業(yè)在垂直整合自我維持的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)，可以通過最優(yōu)位置的選擇來避免這些問題。</p><p>　　談到欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)未來的工業(yè)出口模式及出口結(jié)構(gòu)的猜測，我們認(rèn)為，產(chǎn)業(yè)集群導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)品具有相當(dāng)明的生產(chǎn)成本低的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。該產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)過程規(guī)定了要大量的廉價勞動力投入，否則沒有理由期望在欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)降低生產(chǎn)成本進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)。同時，該高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)出需求價格彈性

39、高，否則企業(yè)是沒有動力冒風(fēng)險去開拓新的市場領(lǐng)的。此外，產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)過程并不倚重外部經(jīng)濟(jì)以及更為復(fù)雜的工業(yè)環(huán)境。地處偏遠(yuǎn)也是至關(guān)重要影響因素，這會使投資者擔(dān)心生產(chǎn)過程中的存貨供應(yīng)及其產(chǎn)品庫存的確定，這是準(zhǔn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化產(chǎn)品的規(guī)格要求，也是不容易讓企業(yè)到地處偏遠(yuǎn)的地方投資生產(chǎn)的一個顧慮因素。此外，高附加價或價值的產(chǎn)品，其運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用較體重大而價值低的要低的多，生產(chǎn)該產(chǎn)品的企業(yè)更有可能出現(xiàn)在欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)，甚至是偏遠(yuǎn)的地區(qū)。當(dāng)然，紡織產(chǎn)品標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化符合標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的

40、那種插圖是出類拔萃，但其他產(chǎn)品越來越有要求，如粗鋼，化肥肥料，新聞紙等，不易于在經(jīng)濟(jì)、交通欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)布置生產(chǎn)。</p><p><b>　　......</b></p><p>　　因此，從企業(yè)家的觀點(diǎn)立場來說，接受發(fā)達(dá)國家的國際投資是欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)消除資本市場狹小導(dǎo)致資本資金短缺障礙的一種途徑，并進(jìn)一步地進(jìn)行特定的減稅優(yōu)惠或者其他優(yōu)惠政策，發(fā)展某些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化產(chǎn)品，或資本密集

41、型產(chǎn)品，欠發(fā)達(dá)國家或地區(qū)同樣具有競爭力優(yōu)勢。另外同時聲明，這不是相互矛盾的推論，即資本匱乏的國家將發(fā)展資本密集型經(jīng)濟(jì)。在這里，包括關(guān)于在欠發(fā)達(dá)的國家的情況，我們所有關(guān)心的是對這些國家產(chǎn)業(yè)活動的影響，盡管這部分資本只是占一國總經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的一小部分。這可能只是某些特別行業(yè)所代表的，也足以在我們的正常期望。</p><p>　　就前面談到的其他意見，對出口到欠發(fā)達(dá)國家，企業(yè)可以通過這些寬松的政策、簡單的模式。在這兩個方面