財(cái)務(wù)管理e

1、Financial Statements Analysis and Long-Term Planning,Key Concepts and Skills,Know how to compute and interpret important financial ratiosBe able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approachUnderst

2、and how capital structure and dividend policies affect a firm’s ability to grow,Chapter Outline,3.1 Financial Statements Analysis3.2 Using Financial Statement Information3.3 Long-Term Financial Planning3.4 External Fi

3、nancing and Growth3.5 Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models,一、財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告及其結(jié)構(gòu)回顧主要財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表：資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、損益表、現(xiàn)金流量表。資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表：某一特定時(shí)點(diǎn)上的財(cái)務(wù)狀況表現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)狀況的基本恒等式 資產(chǎn) = 負(fù)債 + 所有者權(quán)益期初：100萬(wàn) ＝ 40萬(wàn) + 60萬(wàn)

4、期末：102萬(wàn) ＝ 40萬(wàn) + 62萬(wàn),利潤(rùn)表：反映某一特定時(shí)期內(nèi)的經(jīng)營(yíng)成果表現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)成果的等式： 收入 — 費(fèi)用 = 利潤(rùn) 12萬(wàn) － 10萬(wàn) ＝ 2萬(wàn) 原則：權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制,現(xiàn)金流量表： 表現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)狀況變動(dòng)的等式： 流動(dòng)資產(chǎn) - 流動(dòng)負(fù)債 = 長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債+所有者權(quán)益 - 長(zhǎng)

5、期性資產(chǎn) (除：短期投資) （除：流動(dòng)負(fù)債）,原則：收付實(shí)現(xiàn)制現(xiàn)金流量表：反映某一特定時(shí)期內(nèi)現(xiàn)金變動(dòng)原因,附表： 對(duì)主表內(nèi)容某方面所進(jìn)行的有針對(duì)性的說(shuō)明 如：利潤(rùn)分配表、其他業(yè)務(wù)收支明細(xì)表。注釋： 是對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表本身某些無(wú)法或難以表達(dá)的內(nèi)容所作的補(bǔ)充說(shuō)明和詳解。財(cái)務(wù)狀況說(shuō)明書： 是對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表進(jìn)行的說(shuō)明、分析、評(píng)價(jià)及對(duì)未來(lái)作出估計(jì)、判斷、預(yù)測(cè),二、會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表的局限計(jì)量屬性的問題

6、：歷史成本與公允價(jià)值程序選擇的問題：可比性內(nèi)容分類方面的問題：利潤(rùn)表有關(guān)創(chuàng)新性業(yè)務(wù)的會(huì)計(jì)處理（抽逃資金）有關(guān)信息范圍：會(huì)計(jì)信息與財(cái)務(wù)信息（財(cái)務(wù)中的現(xiàn)金流量：機(jī)會(huì)成本，非收付實(shí)現(xiàn)制）,3.1 Financial Statements Analysis,Common-Size Balance SheetsCompute all accounts as a percent of total assetsCommon-Size In

7、come StatementsCompute all line items as a percent of salesas the company grows，companies of different sizes,3.2 Ratio Analysis,Ratios also allow for better comparison through time or between companies.As we look at

8、each ratio, ask yourself:How is the ratio computed?What is the ratio trying to measure and why?What is the unit of measurement?What does the value indicate?How can we improve the company’s ratio?,Categories of Finan

9、cial Ratios,Short-term solvency or liquidity ratiosLong-term solvency, or financial leverage ratiosAsset management or turnover ratiosProfitability ratiosMarket value ratios,Computing Liquidity Ratios,Current Ratio =

10、 CA / CLQuick Ratio = (CA – Inventory) / CL保守速動(dòng)比率=現(xiàn)金+短期證券+應(yīng)收票據(jù)+應(yīng)收賬款(即可以變成現(xiàn)金的資產(chǎn))Cash Ratio = Cash / CLNWC to Total Assets = NWC / TAInterval Measure間隔期間 = CA / average daily operating costs,短期償債能力指標(biāo)的問題,不良資產(chǎn)：逾期應(yīng)收賬

11、款，長(zhǎng)期積壓的商品物資。歷史成本計(jì)價(jià)負(fù)債的屬性：預(yù)收賬款或有負(fù)債：對(duì)外擔(dān)保，未決訴訟，剩余貸款額度？,短期償債能力指標(biāo)的修正,流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)中應(yīng)扣除：（1）一年或一個(gè)經(jīng)營(yíng)周期以上未收回的應(yīng)收賬款、積壓的存貨；（2）待攤費(fèi)用；（3）用于購(gòu)買或投資長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)的預(yù)付賬款。流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)中應(yīng)加入：（1）流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)損失中可能獲得的賠償或補(bǔ)償；（2）存貨、有價(jià)證券變現(xiàn)價(jià)值超過賬面價(jià)值部分。（3）可用的貸款額度。流動(dòng)負(fù)債應(yīng)考慮加入：或有負(fù)債如對(duì)外擔(dān)保、

12、未決訴訟等可能帶來(lái)的流動(dòng)負(fù)債。流動(dòng)負(fù)債應(yīng)扣除：預(yù)收賬款,Computing Leverage Ratios,負(fù)債比率，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE) / TA(3588 - 2591) / 3588 = 28%負(fù)債權(quán)益比Debt/Equity = TD / TE(3588 – 2591) / 2591 = 38.5%D/E = D/A / (1 – D/A) = .28 / .72 = .

13、39權(quán)益乘數(shù)Equity Multiplier = TA / TE = 1 + D/E=1/(1-D/A)1 + .385 = 1.385,Computing Coverage Ratios,Times Interest Earned = EBIT / Interest691 / 141 = 4.9 times已獲息倍數(shù)，利息保障倍數(shù)負(fù)債能力 違約可能性利息：包括利潤(rùn)表中的財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用和資本化的利息與財(cái)務(wù)杠桿的關(guān)系DFL

14、=EBIT/(EBIT+I)=1/(1+1/已獲息倍數(shù))現(xiàn)金對(duì)利息的保障倍數(shù)Cash Coverage = (EBIT + Depreciation) / Interest (EBITD)EBITDA,Computing Inventory Ratios,Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold / Inventory1344 / 422 = 3.2 timesDays’ Sales in

15、 Inventory = 365 / Inventory Turnover365 / 3.2 = 114 days期末存貨or平均存貨不同行業(yè)對(duì)存貨的計(jì)價(jià),Computing Receivables Ratios,Receivables Turnover = Sales / Accounts Receivable2311 / 188 = 12.3 timesDays’ Sales in Receivables = 365 /

16、Receivables Turnover365 / 12.3 = 30 days假設(shè)：賒銷季節(jié)性銷售問題,另一種方法？,Computing Total Asset Turnover,Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Total Assets2311 / 3588 = .64 timesIt is not unusual for TAT < 1, especially if a firm has

17、 a large amount of fixed assets.Fixed assets are expensive and are meant to provide sales over a long period of time.Consider：a firm is utilizing old (and perhaps inefficient) equipment, while others in the industry ha

18、ve invested in modern equipment 周轉(zhuǎn)率高低的評(píng)價(jià),Profitability Measures,Profit Margin = Net Income / Sales363 / 2311 = 15.7%Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income / Total Assets363 / 3588 = 10.1%Return on Equity (ROE) = Net In

19、come / Total Equity363 / 2591 = 14.0%ROE will always be higher than ROA as long as the firm has debt (and ROA is positive). The greater the leverage, the larger the difference will be.,ROE is often used as a measure of

20、 how well management is attaining the goal of owner wealth maximization.ROA and ROE are returns on accounting numbers. Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA)EVA ＝稅后凈營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)－資本成本（機(jī)會(huì)成本）＝稅后凈營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)－資本占用 ×

21、 加權(quán)平均資本成本率,Computing Market Value Measures,Market Price = $88 per shareShares outstanding = 33 millionPE Ratio = Price per share / Earnings per share 88 / 11 = 8 times市盈率反映股票投資者對(duì)每一元的利潤(rùn)所愿意支付的代價(jià)。通常用來(lái)作為比較不同價(jià)格

22、的股票是否被高估或者低估的指標(biāo)。,一般而言，市盈率越低，表示公司股票的投資價(jià)值越高；反之，該股票的價(jià)格具有泡沫，價(jià)值被高估，投資價(jià)值越低。Another opinion, 市盈率越高=》公司未來(lái)成長(zhǎng)的潛力越大=》投資者對(duì)該股票的評(píng)價(jià)越高；當(dāng)一家公司增長(zhǎng)迅速以及未來(lái)的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)非?？春脮r(shí)，股票目前的高市盈率可能恰好準(zhǔn)確地估量了該公司的價(jià)值。反之，投資者對(duì)該股票評(píng)價(jià)越低。,如果某股票有較高市盈率，代表：　　(1)市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的盈利增長(zhǎng)速

23、度快?！　?2)該企業(yè)一向都有可觀盈利，但在前一個(gè)年度偶然降低了盈利?！　?3)出現(xiàn)泡沫，該股被追捧?！　?4)該企業(yè)有特殊的優(yōu)勢(shì)，保證能在低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況下持久取得盈利。　　(5)市場(chǎng)上可選擇的股票有限，在供求定律下，股價(jià)將上升。這令跨時(shí)間的市盈率比較變得意義不大。,A table of year-end P-E ratios for the S&P 500,The average P-E over the 16-year

24、is 23.77.,,一般來(lái)說(shuō)，市盈率水平為：　　 0-13：即價(jià)值被低估　　14-20：即正常水平　　21-28：即價(jià)值被高估　　 28+：反映股市出現(xiàn)投機(jī)性泡沫但在我國(guó)，sb：30-50,滬深股市歷史上有4個(gè)市盈率高峰：66倍以上：1993.2、1993.5, 2001.6，2007.10.54到55倍: 1996.12，1997.5，2000.8.42到44倍: 1998-1999，滬深股市曾分別在42和44

25、倍的市盈率遇阻回落。34倍: 1994.9，1995.5的高點(diǎn)，兩市的平均市盈率就在32到34倍之間。09年，A股地產(chǎn)上市公司平均市盈率已達(dá)50倍以上09年，以今年一季度市盈率計(jì)算：滬市A股27.53倍，深市A股56.39倍，兩市加權(quán)平均市盈率約36倍。按照這一水平計(jì)算，當(dāng)上證指數(shù)到達(dá)3478點(diǎn)時(shí)，兩市的平均市盈率為41倍。,中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的平均市盈率還應(yīng)考慮發(fā)行價(jià)因素。1997年以前，參照當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)的利率水平，管理層對(duì)IPO定價(jià)控制

26、得比較嚴(yán)，一般IPO市盈率不得超過15倍。后來(lái)為了推進(jìn)證券市場(chǎng)的市場(chǎng)化改革，對(duì)發(fā)行定價(jià)的控制漸漸放松了，閩東電力2000年發(fā)行時(shí)達(dá)到了88倍的市盈率，一般股票的平均發(fā)行市盈率也維持在40、50的水平。從理論上說(shuō)，發(fā)行市盈率越高，籌集的資金越多，上市公司潛在的發(fā)展、盈利能力就越強(qiáng)，上市公司賬面資產(chǎn)的含金量也就越高。但也意味著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越高！,利率與市盈率之間的關(guān)系：市盈率=1／1年期銀行存款利率目前美元的年利率保持在4.75％左右，所以，

27、美國(guó)股市的市盈率保持在1/（4.75％）=21倍的市盈率左右目前我國(guó)人民幣的一年期存款利率是2.79％，考慮利息稅的實(shí)際的存款利率大約為2.23％，市盈率是1/（2.23％）=44.8倍,以市盈率的高低來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)股票的投資價(jià)值時(shí)，應(yīng)注意以下三個(gè)因素：（1）由于不同國(guó)家之間市場(chǎng)利率上可能存在的差異性，不能以簡(jiǎn)單的橫向引用，來(lái)框定我國(guó)股市理性的市盈率區(qū)域。（2）市盈率是一個(gè)靜態(tài)指標(biāo)，不要過分看重市盈率指標(biāo)對(duì)投資價(jià)值評(píng)估的作用。（3）市盈

28、率指標(biāo)還必須與股票的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平相結(jié)合，才能做出合理的投資價(jià)值評(píng)判。,EPS= 本年凈利潤(rùn) 期末普通股股數(shù)期末普通股股數(shù)：攤薄，發(fā)行在外的，非全部權(quán)益價(jià)值M/B：市凈率 Market-to-book ratio = market value per share / book value per share88 / (2591 / 33) = 1.12 times,,小 結(jié),短期償債能力或流動(dòng)性比率

29、長(zhǎng)期償債能力或財(cái)務(wù)杠桿比率資產(chǎn)運(yùn)用或周轉(zhuǎn)率比率盈利性比率市場(chǎng)價(jià)值比率,3.3 The Du Pont Identity,ROE = PM * TAT * EMProfit margin is a measure of the firm’s operating efficiency – how well it controls costs.Total asset turnover is a measure of the firm

30、’s asset use efficiency – how well it manages its assets.Equity multiplier is a measure of the firm’s financial leverage.,Calculating the Du Pont Identity,ROA = 10.1% and EM = 1.39ROE = 10.1% * 1.385 = 14.0%PM = 15.7%

31、 and TAT = 0.64ROE = 15.7% * 0.64 * 1.385 = 14.0%擴(kuò)展的杜邦分析體系每股股利=股利支付率×每股盈余 =股利支付率×每股凈資產(chǎn)×權(quán)益報(bào)酬率,雷達(dá)圖。在二維空間中構(gòu)造一個(gè)有固定半徑的圓，從圓心引出p條等距的射線（亦可按一定比例），這些射線的長(zhǎng)度代表變量的數(shù)值，以直線連接射線的端點(diǎn)即形成一個(gè)星形。臉譜圖。即用臉的特征（如臉的形狀，嘴的彎曲率等）

32、來(lái)表示相關(guān)的指標(biāo)變量。沃爾評(píng)分法：將選定的財(cái)務(wù)比率用線性關(guān)系結(jié)合起來(lái)，并分別給定各自的分?jǐn)?shù)比重，然后通過與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)比率進(jìn)行比較，確定各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)的得分及總體指標(biāo)的累計(jì)分?jǐn)?shù)，從而對(duì)企業(yè)的信用水平作出評(píng)價(jià)。,3.4 Using Financial Statements,Ratios are not very helpful by themselves: they need to be compared to somethingTime-Tren

33、d AnalysisUsed to see how the firm’s performance is changing through timePeer Group AnalysisCompare to similar companies or within industriesSIC and NAICS codes,Potential Problems,There is no underlying theory, so th

34、ere’s no way to know which ratios are most relevant.Benchmarking is difficult for diversified firms.Globalization and international competition makes comparison more difficult because of differences in accounting regul

35、ations.Firms use varying accounting procedures.Firms have different fiscal years.Extraordinary, or one-time, events,3.5 Long-Term Financial Planning,Investment in new assets – determined by capital budgeting decisions

36、Degree of financial leverage – determined by capital structure decisionsCash paid to shareholders – determined by dividend policy decisionsLiquidity requirements – determined by net working capital decisions,Financial

37、 Planning Ingredients,Sales Forecast – many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimate sales growth rate)Pro Forma Statements – setting up the plan as projected (pro forma形式上的) financial statements

38、 allows for consistency and ease of interpretationAsset Requirements – the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections,Financial Requirements – the amount of financing needed to pay for the require

39、d assetsPlug Variable – determined by management decisions about what type of financing will be used (makes the balance sheet balance)Economic Assumptions – explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment,Pe

40、rcent of Sales Approach,Some items vary directly with sales, others do not.Income StatementCosts may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the profit margin is constantDepreciation and interest expense

41、may not vary directly with sales – if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constantDividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales – this affects additions to retained earnin

42、gs,Percent of Sales Approach,Balance Sheet p49Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales.Accounts payable also normally vary directly with sales.Notes payable, long-term debt, and equity g

43、enerally do not vary with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure.The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision.,Percent of Sales and EFN,Ex

44、ternal Financing Needed (EFN)The difference between the forecasted increase in assets and the forecasted increase in liabilities and equity. External Financing Needed (EFN) can also be calculated as:,3.6 External Finan

45、cing and Growth,At low growth levels, internal financing (retained earnings) may exceed the required investment in assets.As the growth rate increases, the internal financing will not be enough, and the firm will have t

46、o go to the capital markets for financing.Examining the relationship between growth and external financing :,資產(chǎn)需求額Vs留存收益增加額（p53圖）EFN：plug負(fù)債融資；權(quán)益融資沒有任何外部融資：內(nèi)部增長(zhǎng)率沒有外部股權(quán)融資，且保持負(fù)債權(quán)益比（資本結(jié)構(gòu)）不變：可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)率P51-53：3.6,The Intern

47、al Growth Rate,The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow assets using retained earnings as the only source of financing.Using the information from the Hoffman Co.ROA = 66 / 500 = .132b = 44/ 66 = .

48、66700,The Sustainable Growth Rate,The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow by using internally generated funds and issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio.Using the Hoffman Co.ROE = 66 / 2

49、50 = .264b = .667ROE based on ending, rather than beginning equity,條件：資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率；銷售凈利率不變 資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率；股利支付率不變 不增發(fā)新股 因此：銷售的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率＝可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)率 ＝資產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)率＝負(fù)債增長(zhǎng)率＝股東權(quán)益增長(zhǎng)率＝凈利增長(zhǎng)率＝股利增長(zhǎng)率＝留存收益增加額的增長(zhǎng)率＝實(shí)體現(xiàn)金流量的增長(zhǎng)率＝股權(quán)現(xiàn)金流量的增長(zhǎng)率,可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)率=權(quán)益凈利率*收益留存率/（

50、1-權(quán)益凈利率*收益留存率）=股東權(quán)益增長(zhǎng)率 =股東權(quán)益增加額/期初股東權(quán)益 =本年留存收益/（期末權(quán)益-本年留存收益）=期初權(quán)益凈利率×本期收益留存率可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)率=銷售凈利率×總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率×收益留存率×期初權(quán)益期末總資產(chǎn)乘數(shù)注意：目前的資本結(jié)構(gòu)與增資的綜合資本成本,Determinants of Growth,Profit margin – operating efficiency

51、Total asset turnover – asset use efficiencyFinancial leverage – choice of optimal debt ratioDividend policy – choice of how much to pay to shareholders versus reinvesting in the firm每股股利指標(biāo)slide35,3.7 Some Caveats,Fina

52、ncial planning models do not indicate which financial polices are the best.Models are simplifications of reality, and the world can change in unexpected ways.Without some sort of plan, the firm may find itself adrift i

53、n a sea of change without a rudder for guidance.,銷售百分比法的若干假設(shè),1、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的敏感項(xiàng)目在短時(shí)期內(nèi)隨銷售的變動(dòng)而成比例變動(dòng)，其隱含的前提是：現(xiàn)有的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債水平對(duì)現(xiàn)在的銷售是最優(yōu)的，即所有的生產(chǎn)能力已經(jīng)全部使用。2、敏感項(xiàng)目與銷售額之間成正比例關(guān)系。這一假設(shè)又包含兩方面意義：一是線性假設(shè)，即敏感項(xiàng)目與銷售額之間為正相關(guān)；二是直線過原點(diǎn)，即銷售額為零時(shí)，項(xiàng)目的初始值也為零。,3、基

54、期與預(yù)測(cè)期情況基本不變。這一假設(shè)包含三重含義：一是基期與預(yù)測(cè)期的敏感項(xiàng)目和非敏感項(xiàng)目的劃分不變；二是敏感項(xiàng)目與銷售額之間成固定比例，或稱比例不變；三是銷售結(jié)構(gòu)和價(jià)格水平與基期相比基本不變。 4、企業(yè)的內(nèi)部資金來(lái)源僅包括留用利潤(rùn)，即當(dāng)期計(jì)提的折舊全部用來(lái)更新固定資產(chǎn)。 5、銷售的預(yù)測(cè)比較準(zhǔn)確。,Quick Quiz,How do you compute and revise the ratios within each categor

55、y?What are some of the problems of financial statement analysis?What is the percentage of sales approach? How to compute EFN?What is the internal growth rate?What is the sustainable growth rate? What are the problems