未來氣候變化對中國玉米生產(chǎn)的影響評估.pdf

1、中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文未來氣候變化對中國玉米生產(chǎn)的影響評估姓名：崔巧娟申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：氣象學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：盧志光許吟隆20050501AbstractTheglobalclimateisexperiencingadistinctchangeforalmostacemuf3f，withglobalwarmerasthemaincharacteristicandthe|o瞧|climatechangetrendofChinaisnea

2、rlyaccordantwiththechangeofthewoddAgricdtnreisoneofthemostsensitivedepartmentsforclimatechangeChinaisnotonlyadevelopingcountybutalsoabigcountryeconomicallybasedontheagriculture，therefore，foodstuffsecurityaffectstheSOCial

3、stabilizationandtheeconomicdevelopmentoffinelyandsustaineddirectly。Maize，#oneofthemainthreefoodstuffcrop＆hasimportantstatusinthefoodstuffproductivityinChinaTherea∞somegoodcharacteristicsabouthighphotoefficiencylowconsume

4、andbigincreaseproductionpotentialinmaizeproductivityandtheproportionofmaizeoccupythefirstintheincreaseproductionaimin2000Soitisimportantthatevaluatingtheaffectionoffutureclimatechangeformaizeproduction。InthispapertheCERE

5、SMaize(CropEnvironmmentResourseSynthesessystem)wascalibratedandvalidatedfirstly，afterwardstheclimatescenariosmadebyPREclS(ProvidingRegionalClimateforImpactsstudies)wereinputintotheCERES—Maizemodeltovalidationthesimulatin

6、gabilityofPRECIS。BasedontheabovetwomodelsthemeteorologicaldamofBaseline(1961～1990)，A22071～2079)andB2(2071～2090)exporteddirectlybyPRECISwereusediⅡcropmodeltooutputyield，andthenumberofgrowthdateof11maizestationsillthefutur

7、eclimatechangedAtlast，theaffectionoffutureclimatechangedformaizeproductionwasevaluated飄ismodelconsideredmanyfactorsaffectingthegrowthofmaize，such舔irrigation，rainfeed，C02fextilizationandpredatingtheplantingdateby5daysand1

8、0dayswhenanalyzingthech粗geofyieldandperioddurationItfurtherindicatedhowtheproductionofmaizewasaffectedbylheincreaseofC02andPARbYusingthedatacollectedfromthefieldexperimentinChangpingExperimentalStationofChinaAgricultural

9、AcademyofScienoesTheresultsshowedm皺theCERES艇aizeroodelisapplicabletoevaluatetheclimatechangeaffectingthemaizeproductioninChina，andPRECIScouldoffermeteorologydataforCERESMaizemodelIftheaffectionofclimatechangewastheonlyfa

10、ctortakenintoaccounttheproductionofthemaizeinnortheastspringmaizezonemostlywillreduce，butwhichinhuan曲uaihaisummermaizezonewillincrease，andthenumberofgrowthperiodwillshortenmostly婦allzonesHoeverifC02fertilizationwasconsid

11、eredandrequiredwaterwasfdledinfutureclimatechange，theyieldofmaizewillincreaseinallzonesItdoesn’thavegreateffecttoyieldofmaizeundertheconditionofpredatingtheplantingdateTheyieldofmaizewasdecresedundertheconditionofralnfeo

12、dT沁numberofgrowthdateisaffectedmainlybythepredationofplnotingdateinallzones。Also，thenumberofgrowthdateshortenedmorewiththepredationofptantingdateinHuanghuaihaisummermaizezone，whileitprolongedmorewiththepredationofplantin