非洲民間資本流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　2800單詞，1.6萬英文字符，5100漢字</p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)出處：Agbloyor E K, Abor J Y, Adjasi C K D, et al. Private capital flows and economic growth in Africa: The role of domestic financial markets[J]. Journal of Interna

2、tional Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2014, 30: 137-152.</p><p>　　http://www.wenku1.com/news/617AC94B432295E5.html</p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　Private capita

3、l flows and economic growth in Africa: The role of domestic financial markets</p><p>　　Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor, Joshua Yindenaba Abor, Charles Komla Delali Adjasi,</p><p>　　Alfred Yawson</p&

4、gt;<p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　This study examines the relation between private capital flows and economic growth in Africa during the period 1990–2007. We estimate the empirical relati

5、on with a panel Instrumental Variable Generalized Method of Moments (IV-GMM) estimator which allows for arbitrary heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. Decomposing private capital flows into its component parts, we find th

6、at foreign direct investment, foreign equity portfolio investment and private debt flows all have a negative impact on economi</p><p>　　Keywords: Africa; Capital flows; Economic activity; Financial markets&l

7、t;/p><p>　　1. Introduction</p><p><b>　　如何翻譯外文文獻(xiàn)</b></p><p>　　Most African countries experienced anaemic growth after independence in the 1970s through to the early 1990s. E

8、asterly and Levine (1997) described Africa as a growth tragedy. It must be noted, however, that the growth dynamics in Africa have changed since the early 1990s. Many of the world's fastest growing economies are now

9、in Africa and most African countries are growing faster than countries in the developed world and are experiencing growth rates higher than the world average. With a world e</p><p>　　Although private capital

10、 flows on the whole have risen sharply, there are important variations in the growth of its various components. For example, the growth in FDI has outpaced the growth in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) and debt flows

11、with each component having a potentially differing impact on economic activities in Africa. Consequently, in this paper we examine how the various components of private capital flows help resolve the African growth trage

12、dy lamented by Easterly and Levine (</p><p>　　In theory, financial sector development has the potential to affect the allocation of savings and thus improves economic growth (Schumpeter, 1912). Consistent wi

13、th this view, Alfaro et al. (2004) provide evidence that strong financial markets are necessary institutions that a country must have for FDIs to have a positive influence on economic growth. They document that countries

14、 with good domestic financial markets benefit more from FDI inflows. Further, Brambila-Macias and Massa (2010) examine </p><p>　　Consequently, we extend our initial analysis to examine whether the presence o

15、f good financial markets is necessary for private capital flows to have the desired positive effect on economic growth. Our approach is innovative and different from Alfaro et al. (2004), Brambila-Macias and Massa (2010)

16、, Choong et al. (2010) and Kendall (2012) in the sense that we consider other capital flows apart from FDI. Further, we interact private capital flows with proxies for both stock market and banking sect</p><p&

17、gt;　　We find that, indeed, having a well developed financial market is a necessary condition to transform the negative effect of private capital flows into a positive. The results suggest that in the absence of a well de

18、veloped financial market, private capital flows are unlikely to improve economic growth. We obtain stronger results when we interact FDI with financial markets compared to the interaction with the other components of pri

19、vate capital flows. This likely point to the more desirous nature</p><p>　　The rest of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 examines the extant literature on capital flows and economic growth, Secti

20、on 3 details the methodology employed in the empirical analysis, in Section 4 we present the results from the empirical estimations and finally in Section 5 we conclude the paper.</p><p>　　2. Theoretical bac

21、kground</p><p>　　The popular theories that explain economic growth include the Schumpeter theory on economic growth, the Solow–Swan (neo-classical) growth theory and endogenous growth theories. According to

22、the Schumpeterian view, finance affects the allocation of savings and improves productivity growth and technological change (Beck et al., 2000). In this framework, financial markets allocate savings (which may be partly

23、from foreign capital flows) and finance innovations which may be due to new technology int</p><p>　　In his classic 1956 article Solow proposed that we begin the study of economic growth by assuming a standar

24、d neoclassical production function with decreasing returns to capital (Mankiw et al., 1992). The neo-classical theory predicts that countries with higher savings and lower population growth rates will grow at a faster pa

25、ce (see Mankiw et al., 1992). This theory highlights the importance of technological progression in the process of economic growth. It postulates that economic growth will c</p><p>　　Prior studies report pos

26、itive effects of capital flows, namely FDI and FPI on macroeconomic indicators (Borensztein et al., 1998, Bekaert and Harvey, 1998 and Bekaert and Harvey, 2000; in Durham, 2004). However, some economists argue that capit

27、al flows have no growth impact and that they may even be deleterious to growth. Others argue that the growth impact of capital flows especially FDI depend on host country conditions such as initial GDP (Blomstrom et al.,

28、 1992), trade openness (Balasubraman</p><p>　　Broadly, the literature suggests that the positive impact of capital flows on growth may crucially depend on the level of development of financial markets in the

29、 host country. Our simple conceptualization of the process through which foreign capital influences economic growth as well as how financial markets interact with foreign capital flows to spur economic growth is depicted

30、 in Fig. A.1. Foreign capital flows add to domestic investment in the host country. They also affect savings in the hos</p><p>　　4. Empirical results</p><p>　　4.1. Descriptive statistics</p&g

31、t;<p>　　Table A.1 shows the summary statistics. The mean level of FDI scaled by GDP is 2.37%. The mean level of EFPI and private non-guaranteed debt are 0.29% and 0.10%, respectively. Therefore, the volume of FDI

32、into Africa far outweighs that of EFPI and private non-guaranteed debt. The average stock market turnover and market capitalization ratios are 11.9% and 31.34% respectively. This is lower than the average stock market tu

33、rnover and market capitalization ratios of 64.46% and 84.29% for East Asia </p><p>　　The correlation matrix shows that multicollinearity is unlikely to be a problem in our data set. FDI exhibits the highest

34、correlation with total capital flows. The finance variables are highly correlated with each other. EFPI exhibits a higher correlation with the market capitalization ratio compared to market turnover.</p><p>

35、　　4.2. Regression results</p><p>　　We now discuss the results from our empirical estimations. For each capital flow variable, we report ten different regressions. Five regressions report the effect of the ca

36、pital flow and financial market development variables on economic growth. We run these five regressions because we use five financial market indicators and include one financial market indicator in the regressions at a t

37、ime due to potential multicollinearity (see Table A.2). A further five regressions report the effect of the </p><p>　　Broadly, our results are consistent with the finance growth-nexus paradigm. The results s

38、uggest that financial development whether in the form of an advanced stock market or banking sector helps spur economic growth in Africa. Both stock markets and banks improve the liquidity and tradability of assets in an

39、 economy, provide opportunities for economic agents to diversify risk, reduce information asymmetry by collecting information on deficit units, promote savings mobilization and the attraction</p><p>　　Furthe

40、r, we find population to be positively and significantly related to growth in all the estimated models. A large population seems to matter for growth because it contributes to a country's production and also stimulat

41、es high consumption for produced goods. In countries like the U.S., it is well known that consumer spending drives economic activity. Therefore, countries with a large population size benefit more by experiencing higher

42、economic activity. We also find that the level of savings </p><p>　　Financial openness is also positive and significantly related to growth in all the regression estimates. This suggests that countries with

43、more open capital accounts benefit more by experiencing higher economic activity. This is because financial openness makes it possible for these countries to receive foreign capital to add to their capital stock and achi

44、eve investment rates far above those attainable domestically. The results also suggest that institutions play a positive role in spurring eco</p><p>　　We estimate the effect of EFPI on economic activity and

45、report the results in Table A.4. Similar to the FDI results reported in Table A.3, we find a negative relation between EFPI and economic activity (see Models 2 and 7). Again, in the absence of good financial markets, the

46、 results indicate EFPI negatively influences economic activity although not always significant. These results may be due to the potentially destabilizing effect that EFPI has on stocks markets due to its inherently volat

47、ile </p><p>　　5. Conclusion</p><p>　　This study examines the relation between the various forms of private capital flows and economic growth in Africa. Our capital flows variables include FDI, E

48、FPI, private non-guaranteed debt and aggregate private capital flows. In all the empirical analysis conducted, we control for population size, savings, financial openness and institutional quality as these factors matter

49、 for economic activity. We find overwhelming evidence that private capital flows have a detrimental effect on economic grow</p><p>　　The key issue that emerges is that capital flows may be detrimental in cou

50、ntries with relatively underdeveloped financial markets. Financial markets matter in the growth process because they help allocate foreign capital towards productive ventures. Also, countries with weak financial markets

51、may be more vulnerable to financial and exchange rate crises resulting in the outflow of foreign capital and lowering their long-term economic growth. Undeveloped financial markets therefore seem to frequen</p>&l

52、t;p><b>　　譯文</b></p><p>　　非洲民間資本流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)的作用</p><p>　　阿布羅伊，約書亞，查爾斯，阿爾弗雷德</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　本研究考察了1990 – 2007年間非洲民間資本流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)

53、系。我們預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)驗(yàn)與一組工具變量廣義矩量法(IV-GMM)估計(jì)量允許任意異方差性和內(nèi)生性。將民間資本流動(dòng)的組成部分分解出來，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，外商直接投資，外國(guó)股票投資組合投資和私人債務(wù)流動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。然而，擁有強(qiáng)勁國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)的國(guó)家，能通過民間資本流入改變其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的負(fù)面影響。因此，在強(qiáng)勁的國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)背景下，民間資本流動(dòng)能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。這些結(jié)果表明，民間資本流動(dòng)需要強(qiáng)大的金融市場(chǎng)為支撐來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。最終的結(jié)果是，應(yīng)強(qiáng)勁控制

54、人口規(guī)模，儲(chǔ)蓄，金融開放和機(jī)構(gòu)質(zhì)量。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：非洲，資本流動(dòng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)，金融市場(chǎng)</p><p><b>　　1.引言</b></p><p>　　1970年代到1990年代初，大多數(shù)非洲國(guó)家獨(dú)立后經(jīng)歷了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力的時(shí)期。伊斯特利和萊文(1997)描述了非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的悲劇。但必須指出，自1990年代初開始，非洲的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力便

55、有了大大的改變。世界上許多發(fā)展最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體出現(xiàn)在非洲，大多數(shù)非洲國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度快于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率高于世界平均水平。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率約為4%，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預(yù)測(cè)，非洲撒哈拉沙漠以南地區(qū)的GDP在2011年將增長(zhǎng)5.25%，2011年將增長(zhǎng)為5.75%(貨幣基金組織，2011)。自1980年以來，流入非洲的主要資本大大增加，尤其是外商直接投資,使得1980 - 2003年期間增長(zhǎng)達(dá)8倍之多(聯(lián)合國(guó)非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)委員會(huì)，200

56、6)。</p><p>　　盡管整個(gè)民間資本流動(dòng)急劇上升，發(fā)展中的各組成部分也有了重要變化。例如，外商直接投資的增長(zhǎng)速度超過了外國(guó)組合投資的增長(zhǎng)(FPI)速度，債務(wù)流動(dòng)各組成部分對(duì)非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)存在潛在的影響力。因此，在本文中，我們?cè)噲D考察民間資本流動(dòng)各組成部分能如何幫助解決非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的問題，伊斯特利和萊文(1997)。關(guān)注非洲尤其重要，因?yàn)槊耖g資本流動(dòng)被非洲決策者和發(fā)展合作伙伴廣泛認(rèn)為是重要的投資工具，通過它

57、，非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)問題可以得以解決。這項(xiàng)研究系統(tǒng)地評(píng)估了民間資本流動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。本研究填補(bǔ)了這樣一個(gè)空白，進(jìn)一步探索民間資本流動(dòng)所需的條件并預(yù)測(cè)其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響。對(duì)來自14個(gè)非洲國(guó)家1990 - 2007年期間的資本流動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，初步結(jié)果表明，民間資本流動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生不利的影響。</p><p>　　從理論上講，控股的金融業(yè)發(fā)展基金會(huì)對(duì)儲(chǔ)蓄分配造成潛在影響，從而提高經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)速度 (熊彼特，1912年

58、)。與這相一致的是阿爾法羅(2004年)的觀點(diǎn)，他提供的證據(jù)表明，強(qiáng)大的金融市場(chǎng)是必要的機(jī)構(gòu)，一個(gè)國(guó)家重視外商直接投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生的積極影響。他們的研究文獻(xiàn)表明，擁有良好的國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)的國(guó)家從外商直接投資中收益更多。此外，埃迪·佩尼亞和馬薩(2010)認(rèn)為，如果資本流入放緩，那么其原因就是最近的全球金融危機(jī)可能會(huì)減少非洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，外商直接投資和跨境銀行貸款對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)發(fā)揮著積極和重要的作用。同樣，松(2010)說明

59、了資本流動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的聯(lián)系及金融市場(chǎng)的問題。最近，肯德爾(2012)提供的證據(jù)表明，銀行業(yè)的發(fā)展是一個(gè)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的必要條件。</p><p>　　因此，進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)展我們的初步分析得出，金融市場(chǎng)的存在是否會(huì)對(duì)民間資本流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生積極的影響。不同于阿爾法羅(2004年)的方法，馬西亞斯和馬薩(2010年)，松(2010年)與肯德爾(2012年)的研究表明，除了外商直接投資，其他資本流動(dòng)都會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生一定的影響力

60、。更進(jìn)一步的，民間資本流動(dòng)與股市、銀行業(yè)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系，我們考慮私人資本流動(dòng)和金融發(fā)展的內(nèi)生性經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。</p><p>　　我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，事實(shí)上，擁有一個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)的金融市場(chǎng)是將民間資本流入這一負(fù)面影響轉(zhuǎn)化為積極影響的必要條件。研究結(jié)果表明，缺乏發(fā)達(dá)的金融市場(chǎng)，私人資本流動(dòng)就不太可能提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。更有說服力的結(jié)論是，當(dāng)我們把外商直接投資與金融市場(chǎng)的互動(dòng)聯(lián)系起來時(shí)，其他部分私人資本流動(dòng)之間的對(duì)比就顯得更加鮮明。這可能更能說

61、明外商直接投資流動(dòng)的性質(zhì)。然而，我們的研究結(jié)果表明，國(guó)家強(qiáng)大的金融市場(chǎng)也能從工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)和債務(wù)流動(dòng)中獲益。因此，我們的研究結(jié)果與熊彼特關(guān)于金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的觀點(diǎn)是一致。</p><p>　　本文結(jié)構(gòu)如下：第二部分簡(jiǎn)述了資本流動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，第三部分采用實(shí)證分析方法對(duì)其進(jìn)行了詳盡的描述，在第四部分，我們提出實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果，最后的第五部分中，我們闡述了本文的研究結(jié)論。</p><

62、;p><b>　　2.理論背景</b></p><p>　　當(dāng)前對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論的流行解釋包括，熊彼特理論對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的解釋，斯旺（新古典的）的增長(zhǎng)理論和內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)理論。按照熊彼特的觀點(diǎn)，財(cái)政會(huì)影響儲(chǔ)蓄分配，并改善生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)和技術(shù)變革(貝克，2000)。在這個(gè)框架中，金融市場(chǎng)分配儲(chǔ)蓄(部分可能來自外國(guó)資本流動(dòng))，金融創(chuàng)新的出現(xiàn)可能歸功于外國(guó)公司新技術(shù)的引入。因此，外國(guó)資本流動(dòng)能提高資本積

63、累和技術(shù)擴(kuò)散從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。金融市場(chǎng)能提高經(jīng)濟(jì)資產(chǎn)的流動(dòng)性和交易，為經(jīng)濟(jì)主體提供分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的機(jī)會(huì)，通過收集信息減少有關(guān)赤字單位的信息不對(duì)稱，動(dòng)員社會(huì)儲(chǔ)蓄和吸引外資，改善企業(yè)的公司治理。因此，我們可以通過金融中介機(jī)構(gòu)的這些功能來支援經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。先前的研究為理論預(yù)測(cè)提供了實(shí)證支持，財(cái)務(wù)應(yīng)當(dāng)發(fā)揮其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)積極影響力 (金和萊文，1993年，貝克，2000年，艾倫和迪卡姆，2000年，阿迪斯與貝克斯，2006年，羅梅羅-阿維拉，2007年，馬努

64、，2011年，肯德爾，2012年)。金融可能會(huì)通過這些渠道影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，即提高儲(chǔ)蓄能力，物質(zhì)資本積累和全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)。</p><p>　　1956年，索洛在他的論文中提出，通過假設(shè)一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的新古典生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，我們開始研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與資本報(bào)酬遞減的關(guān)系(曼昆，1992年)。新古典理論預(yù)測(cè)，擁有高儲(chǔ)蓄和低人口增長(zhǎng)率的國(guó)家將發(fā)展的更快(曼昆，1992)。這一理論強(qiáng)調(diào)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的過程中技術(shù)發(fā)展的重要性。它假設(shè)，沒有技術(shù)

65、進(jìn)步，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)就會(huì)停止。索洛增長(zhǎng)模型認(rèn)為，貧窮國(guó)家應(yīng)該表現(xiàn)出較高的物質(zhì)和人力資本回報(bào)率。它還預(yù)測(cè)了各國(guó)人均收入的聚合，貧窮國(guó)家增長(zhǎng)的較快并以追上富裕國(guó)家。根據(jù)新古典理論，除了勞動(dòng)力和資本，其他因素也會(huì)對(duì)各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生影響。這些因素被殘余項(xiàng)或稱為全要素生產(chǎn)率所俘獲。因此，發(fā)展由系統(tǒng)外的因素來決定。擴(kuò)展的索洛模型中增加了人力資本等生產(chǎn)要素，但規(guī)模收益卻不變。擴(kuò)展的索洛模型包括人力及物力資本積累(曼昆，1992年)。因此，在這個(gè)框架中，外國(guó)

66、資本應(yīng)當(dāng)影響儲(chǔ)蓄率進(jìn)而影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。例如，在外商直接投資的情況下，引入新技術(shù)將確保經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。</p><p>　　之前的研究報(bào)告對(duì)資本流動(dòng)產(chǎn)生了積極影響，即外商直接投資和外國(guó)證券投資的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)(伯仁茨特恩，1998年，貝卡爾特和哈維，1998年，貝卡爾特和哈維，2000年；達(dá)勒姆，2004年)。然而，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，資本流動(dòng)不會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，甚至?xí)?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。其他人認(rèn)為，資本流動(dòng)特別是外商直

67、接投資的增長(zhǎng)取決于東道國(guó)條件如最初的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(勃拉姆斯，1992年),貿(mào)易開放(勃拉姆斯，1996年)，人力資本(伯仁茨特恩，1998年)，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定(世界銀行，2001年)，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施(世界銀行，2001年)和金融發(fā)展(奧木蘭和波波拉，2003年，愛馬仕和勒森克，2003年，阿爾法羅，2004年和達(dá)勒姆，2004年)。</p><p>　　廣泛地說，文獻(xiàn)表明，資本流動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的積極影響主要取決于東道國(guó)金融

68、市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展水平。在簡(jiǎn)單概念化的過程中，外資影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)以及金融市場(chǎng)之間的互動(dòng)方式，外國(guó)資本流動(dòng)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都在圖1中得以描述。外國(guó)資本流動(dòng)會(huì)增加?xùn)|道國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)投資。也會(huì)影響東道國(guó)的儲(chǔ)蓄數(shù)量。金融市場(chǎng)將社會(huì)儲(chǔ)蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為投資。這些儲(chǔ)蓄作為國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄，會(huì)誘導(dǎo)開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)資本流動(dòng)。這些外國(guó)資本投資，會(huì)增加人力資本和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，從而提高主體經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)力的水平。生產(chǎn)力水</p><p>　　平提高后的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)反過來進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)了外國(guó)資本的

69、流入。強(qiáng)大的金融市場(chǎng)需要民間資本流動(dòng)來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。</p><p><b>　　4．實(shí)證結(jié)果</b></p><p><b>　　4.1描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)</b></p><p>　　表A.1顯示了概括統(tǒng)計(jì)信息。外商直接投資的平均水平與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例為2.37%。EFPI和私人無擔(dān)保債務(wù)的平均水平分別為0.29%和0.10%

70、。因此，外商直接進(jìn)入非洲投資數(shù)量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過EFPI和私人的無擔(dān)保債務(wù)的數(shù)量。股市的平均營(yíng)業(yè)額和市值比率分別為11.9%和31.34%。低于同一時(shí)期東亞和太平洋地區(qū)股票市場(chǎng)平均營(yíng)業(yè)額和市值比率64.46%和84.29%。這表明，與東亞和太平洋地區(qū)相比，非洲的資本市場(chǎng)并不發(fā)達(dá)。在同一時(shí)期的東亞和太平洋地區(qū)，銀行信貸和私人信貸比率分別為國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的64.38%和60.74%，與之相比，銀行平均價(jià)值和私人信貸顯然較低，分別占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的46.

71、40%和35.46%。M2比率測(cè)量出金融深度平均占GDP的38.82%。東亞和太平洋地區(qū)的金融深度比率70.48%。東亞和太平洋亞洲的金融體系比非洲更勝一籌。至于金融市場(chǎng)變量，非洲的銀行業(yè)展品比股市更深入。</p><p>　　相關(guān)矩陣表明，在我們的數(shù)據(jù)集中，多重共線性不太可能是一個(gè)問題。外商直接投資與總資本流動(dòng)的相關(guān)性最高。各金融變量之間高度相關(guān)。與市場(chǎng)周轉(zhuǎn)額相比，EFPI與市場(chǎng)資本化比率的相關(guān)性更高。<

72、/p><p><b>　　4.2回歸性結(jié)果</b></p><p>　　從我們的實(shí)證估計(jì)中得出這樣的結(jié)果。對(duì)于每一個(gè)資本流動(dòng)變量，我們得出10個(gè)不同的回歸性報(bào)告。其中五個(gè)回歸性報(bào)告顯示，資本流動(dòng)和金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展變量會(huì)影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。因?yàn)槲覀冞\(yùn)用了五個(gè)金融市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)，其中一個(gè)金融市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)具有潛在的多重共線性見表A. 2)。另外五回歸性報(bào)告顯示，探究資本流動(dòng)變量和金融市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)

73、濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響，需要首先考慮資本流動(dòng)變量和金融市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)之間的相互作用。</p><p>　　廣泛地講，我們的研究結(jié)果與金融發(fā)展-關(guān)系模式是一致的。結(jié)果顯示，金融發(fā)展不論是以先進(jìn)的股票市場(chǎng)模式還是銀行業(yè)模式，都將有助于刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。股票市場(chǎng)和銀行業(yè)能提高經(jīng)濟(jì)資產(chǎn)的流動(dòng)性和交易，為經(jīng)濟(jì)主體提供機(jī)會(huì)，并分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，通過收集信息減少有關(guān)虧損單位的信息不對(duì)稱，動(dòng)員社會(huì)儲(chǔ)蓄和吸引外資，改善企業(yè)的公司治理。從本質(zhì)上講，通過將稀缺資

74、源轉(zhuǎn)向最優(yōu)生產(chǎn)力的行業(yè)，從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是金融發(fā)展的過程。金和萊文(1993年)的研究提供的結(jié)論是，財(cái)政并不僅僅是要遵循經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，熊彼特(1912)假定，非洲國(guó)家中金融促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)或許是一個(gè)正確的論斷。</p><p>　　更進(jìn)一步的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在所有估計(jì)模型中，人口數(shù)量對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有積極和顯著的影響。龐大的人口數(shù)量似乎會(huì)影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)樗欣谝粋€(gè)國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)，并能刺激產(chǎn)品高消費(fèi)。眾所周知，在美國(guó)這樣的國(guó)家，其消

75、費(fèi)者開支驅(qū)動(dòng)著經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。因此，人口數(shù)量龐大的國(guó)家會(huì)從經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中獲得更高的效益。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，一個(gè)國(guó)家的儲(chǔ)蓄水平有助于其經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。儲(chǔ)蓄是十分必要的，因?yàn)樗転橥顿Y項(xiàng)目積累資金。因?yàn)椋瑑?chǔ)蓄代表著可以通過金融系統(tǒng)借給虧損單位基金。我們的研究結(jié)果與傳統(tǒng)增長(zhǎng)理論相一致，他們都假設(shè)儲(chǔ)蓄對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)局有一定的影響。</p><p>　　回歸性結(jié)果表明，金融開放與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也存在積極顯著的聯(lián)系。這表明，國(guó)家的資本賬戶越開放獲益就越多。

76、這是因?yàn)?，金融開放使得這些國(guó)家在接受外國(guó)資本時(shí)增加了資本存量，其投資利率就遠(yuǎn)高于那些在國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)資本集聚的國(guó)家。研究結(jié)果還表明，機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)展能刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)(阿爾法羅，2004年)。否定關(guān)系表明，擁有較強(qiáng)機(jī)構(gòu)的國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度更快。制度安排會(huì)影響腐敗、司法的獨(dú)立性、法治、產(chǎn)權(quán)、社會(huì)交往、法律制度、政治自由和商業(yè)安排。顯然，所有這些問題都是一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)果。</p><p>　　我們預(yù)測(cè)了EFPI對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的影響，報(bào)

77、告結(jié)果詳見表A.4。外商直接投資的結(jié)果報(bào)告見表A.3，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)EFPI和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的負(fù)相關(guān)性(見模型2和7)，缺乏良好的金融市場(chǎng)，EFPI對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的負(fù)面影響也并不重要。這些結(jié)果可能是由于潛在的不穩(wěn)定效應(yīng)，市場(chǎng)不穩(wěn)定會(huì)使EFPI對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響。由于這些投資并不固定，外國(guó)投資者可以很容易地從東道主國(guó)家中撤回他們的資金。例如，在最近的全球金融危機(jī)環(huán)境下，股票市場(chǎng)在非洲的影響力顯著下降，因?yàn)閺倪@些市場(chǎng)投資組合的投資者紛紛撤出資金(非洲開發(fā)銀

78、行,2009年)。</p><p><b>　　5.結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　本研究考察了非洲各種形式的民間資本流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。資本流動(dòng)變量包括外商直接投資，EFPI，私人無擔(dān)保債務(wù)和聚集的民間資本流動(dòng)。在所進(jìn)行的實(shí)證分析中，我們控制人口規(guī)模，儲(chǔ)蓄，金融開放和機(jī)構(gòu)質(zhì)量，這些因素對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)來說非常重要。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在非洲，民間資本流動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生不利

79、影響。然而，我們需要考慮這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)：資本流動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響并不是孤立的，資本流動(dòng)變量與金融市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)的相互作用也會(huì)對(duì)其產(chǎn)生一定的影響。當(dāng)我們做到了這些，就能明確資本流動(dòng)變量和金融市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的積極影響。</p><p>　　出現(xiàn)的關(guān)鍵問題是，資本流動(dòng)對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)相對(duì)不發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家來講可能是有害的。在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的過程中，金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)揮了重要作用，因?yàn)樗麄兡軒椭a(chǎn)企業(yè)分配外資。同時(shí)，疲軟的國(guó)家金融市場(chǎng)可能更容易受到金融