新能源行業(yè)中國可再生能源從補(bǔ)貼驅(qū)動到成本驅(qū)動；首次覆蓋行業(yè)；首選股為隆基股份正泰電器／華能新能源（摘要）

1、<p><b>　　可再生能源</b></p><p><b>　　目錄</b></p><p><b>　　CHINA</b></p><p>　　SOLAR & WINDIN NUMBERS</p><p><b>　　6%</b>&

2、lt;/p><p>　　Solar generation as a percentage of total electricity in 2023E</p><p>　　(vs 3% in 2018)</p><p><b>　　9%</b></p><p>　　Wind generation as a percentage

3、 of total electricity in 2023E</p><p>　　(vs 5% in 2018)</p><p><b>　　25%</b></p><p>　　LCOE reduction potential for</p><p>　　solar over 2018-2023E.</p>

4、<p><b>　　22%</b></p><p>　　of the 25% LCOE change comes from capex reduction….</p><p><b>　　20%</b></p><p>　　LCOE reduction potential for</p><

5、p>　　wind over 2018-2023E</p><p><b>　　7%</b></p><p>　　of the 20% LCOE change, comes from capex reduction…</p><p><b>　　3%</b></p><p>　　…from ef

6、ficiency improvement.</p><p><b>　　13%</b></p><p>　　…from efficiency Improvement.</p><p><b>　　256GW</b></p><p>　　of solar installation we expect

7、China to add over 2018-2023.</p><p><b>　　150GW</b></p><p>　　of wind installation we expect China to add over 2018-2023.</p><p>　　PM Summary</p><p>　　Acceler

8、ating cost-reduction and improving operating environment to drive installation outlook; Buy cost leaders in upstream and efficiency leaders in downstream</p><p>　　We forecast 25%/20% cost reductions for sola

9、r/wind power in 2018-23E. We believe de-subsidization policies published in May 2018 have accelerated cost reductions for solar and wind power in China. We forecast average LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) of utility

10、-scale solar and on-shore wind power of US$0.063/kwh and US$0.060/kwh in 2018, and we expect technological advancements to drive further costs reductions of 25%/20% in 2018-23E.</p><p>　　Improving operating

11、environment. We expect the operating environment of the solar and wind sectors to gradually improve as: 1) power demand in China remains resilient in 2019 and beyond despite a potential economic slowdown; 2) the reinforc

12、ement of RPS (Renewable Energy Portfolio System) and the potential opening up of subsidy-free projects promote renewable energy investment (solar and wind in particular) over the long term.</p><p>　　Competit

13、ion still fierce despite a solid installation outlook; leaders stand out amid sector consolidation. We forecast rapidly declining generation costs and an improving operating environment to drive 256GW/150GW solar/wind in

14、stallations in 2018-23E with aggregate capex investment of Rmb1,040bn and Rmb1,083bn, respectively. We expect upstream competition to remain fierce, especially in the solar sector, and upstream consolidation to continue.

15、 We expect upstream leaders with R&D and execution s</p><p>　　Our top Buy picks are Longi, Zhejiang Chint and HNR. We believe China’s solar and wind sectors offer attractive risk and return profiles with

16、 valuations below the average of the past three year and a solid growth outlook. Except for Longi and Zhejiang Chint, our estimates are 0%-6% below consensus for 2018, broadly in line for 2019, and 2%-20% above for 2020

17、(except for Longyuan). We initiate at Buy on Longi, Zhejiang Chint, Tongwei, HNR and Goldwind-H; we initiate at Neutral on Sungrow, Longyua</p><p>　　As shown in Exhibit 1, we rank our solar and wind coverage

18、 using a framework that assesses their volume growth outlook, company-specific catalysts, upside/downside to our target price, net gearing, and cyclical exposure. All categories are equally weighted, with a maximum score

19、 of 5 and a minimum score of -5.</p><p>　　Longi and Zhejiang Chint rank highest in solar; HNR and Goldwind-H rank highest in wind.</p><p>　　圖表 1: Investment framework</p><p>　　Longi

20、76% wafer shipment growth+ Market share gain; cost reduction+ 45% upside to our Rmb26.3/sh, 12-month price target +</p><p>　　Chint45% generation growth and 117% EPC volume growth + Market sha

21、re gain; operating efficiency improvement+ 38% upside to our Rmb32.3/sh, 12-month price target + Tongwei300% poly shipment growth+ Market share gain; cost reduction+ 42% upside to our Rmb12.3/sh, 12-month price t

22、arget + Sungrow63% inverter shipment growth+ Market share gain; cost reduction+ 19% upside to our Rmb11.0/sh, 12-month price target +/- Xinyi46% PV glass shipment growth+ Market share gain</p><

23、;p>　　Longi-10% + Manufacturer, developer+/-4</p><p>　　Chint15% + Asset ownership, developer, manufacturer+/-4</p><p>　　Tongwei29% +/- Asset ownership, manufacturer+/-3

24、</p><p>　　Sungrow-27% + Manufacturer, developer+/-3</p><p>　　Xinyi59% - Manufacturer, developer+/-0</p><p><b>　　Wind</b></p><p>　　HNR152%

25、 - Asset ownership+2</p><p>　　Goldwind-H73% - Asset ownership, developer, manufacturer+/-2</p><p>　　Longyuan110% - Asset ownership+1</p><p>　　Goldwind-A7

26、3% - Asset ownership, developer, manufacturer+/-1</p><p>　　Note: “+” = +1, “-” = -1, “+/-” = 0, all categories equal weight, with 5/-5 max/min scores.</p><p>　　資料來源：Company data, Gao Hu

27、a Securities Research</p><p>　　圖表 2: Summary of our valuation methodology</p><p>　　of peer group peers historical average. Although we believe Xinyi operates with more diversified business and b

28、etter profitabilities□and growth outlook against its peers. We believe its valuation premium□is unjustified as most of our preferred picks are trading□at below average multiple of peers group.</p><p>　　HNRB

29、uy3.0HKD/sh42%EV/EBITDA6.5 -0.5std of historical HNR’s current EV/EBITDA was lower than average of past 3-yr range and comparable</p><p>　　average peers historical average. Since the beginning of 2018, H

30、NR has been trading between past 3-yr average and 1std below average. It appears there is a de-rating in 2018</p><p>　　compared to the average of 2016/17, due to investors’ concern on subsidy payment and<

31、/p><p>　　utilization. We have discounted our more positive view in our estimates, and adopt 0.5std</p><p>　　below historical average (median of YTD range) as target multiple.</p><p>　　

32、average comparable peers historical average. Since the beginning of 2018, Longyuan has been trading between past 3-yr average and 1std below average. It appears there is a de-rating</p><p>　　in 2018 compared

33、 to the average of 2016/17, due to investors’ concern on subsidy</p><p>　　payment and utilization. We have discounted our more positive view in our estimates, and</p><p>　　adopt 1std below histo

34、rical average (0.5std below HNR’s target multiple on lower EBITDA growth outlook) as target multiple.</p><p>　　Goldwind-A Neutral12.7Rmb/sh18%EV/EBITDA12.3 -1std of historical Goldwind-A’s current EV/E

35、BITDA is lower than average of past 5-yr range. Goldwind’s A-</p><p>　　average share has 47% average premium over H-share since the beginning of 2013. We believe this is due to different perception of wind i

36、nstallation outlook from on-shore and off-shore investors. We apply 1std below historical average as target mutiple.</p><p>　　資料來源：Gao Hua Securities Research</p><p>　　We adopt EV/EBITDA as the

37、primary valuation methodology for our solar and wind coverage. We select the comparable peer group as a valuation reference based on the nature of each company’s business. We apply the average historical multiple of the

38、peer group to our coverage (except for Longyuan, HNR and Goldwind-A). For Longyuan</p><p>　　and HNR, we apply -1std/0.5std below the historical average to reflect the de-rating of the two companies since the

39、 beginning of 2018 on investor concerns around subsidies and utilization; we have reflected our more positive view in our estimates as we believe these issues could gradually improve as RPS is reinforced. We apply 1std b

40、elow the historical average to Goldwind-A as it has been trading at an average 47% premium over Goldwind-H, which we attribute to differing perceptions on the wind i</p><p>　　圖表 3: Derivation summary for our

41、 12-month target prices</p><p>　　資料來源：Gao Hua Securities Research, Wind, Bloomberg</p><p>　　INDUSTRY ANALYSIS</p><p>　　Cost reductions accelerating</p><p>　　We believe

42、favorable subsidy policies have driven massive investment and rapid technological advancement across China’s solar and wind sectors, which has led to substantial cost reductions over the last five years. We estimate LCOE

43、 levels for solar/wind power in China fell 55%/19% in 2012-17. As generation costs decline rapidly and the operating environment improves, we expect China’s wind and solar sectors will gradually move from a subsidy-driv

44、en to cost-driven model.</p><p>　　圖表 4: China solar average FiT and LCOE圖表 5: China wind average FiT and LCOE</p><p><b>　　1.2</b></p><p><b>　　1.1</b></p&

45、gt;<p><b>　　1.0</b></p><p><b>　　0.9</b></p><p><b>　　0.8</b></p><p><b>　　0.7</b></p><p><b>　　0.6</b>&l

46、t;/p><p><b>　　0.5</b></p><p><b>　　0.4</b></p><p><b>　　0.3</b></p><p><b>　　0.2</b></p><p><b>　　(Rmb/kwh)&

47、lt;/b></p><p><b>　　(Rmb/w)</b></p><p><b>　　10.0</b></p><p><b>　　9.0</b></p><p><b>　　8.0</b></p><p><b

48、>　　7.0</b></p><p><b>　　6.0</b></p><p><b>　　5.0</b></p><p><b>　　4.0</b></p><p><b>　　3.0</b></p><p>

49、<b>　　2.0</b></p><p><b>　　1.0</b></p><p><b>　　0.0</b></p><p><b>　　0.7</b></p><p><b>　　0.6</b></p><

50、p><b>　　0.6</b></p><p><b>　　0.5</b></p><p><b>　　0.5</b></p><p><b>　　0.4</b></p><p><b>　　0.4</b></p>

51、<p><b>　　0.3</b></p><p><b>　　9.0</b></p><p><b>　　8.0</b></p><p><b>　　7.0</b></p><p><b>　　6.0</b></p

52、><p><b>　　5.0</b></p><p><b>　　4.0</b></p><p><b>　　3.0</b></p><p><b>　　2.0</b></p><p><b>　　1.0</b>&

53、lt;/p><p><b>　　0.0</b></p><p>　　201320142015201620172018E2023E</p><p>　　CAPEX(RHS)Coal-fired-FiTSolar-FiTSolar-LCOE</p><p>　　20132014201520162017

54、2018E2023E</p><p>　　CAPEX(RHS)Coal-fired-FiTWind-FiTWind-LCOE</p><p>　　資料來源：NEA, CEC, Gao Hua Securities Research Estimate資料來源：NEA, CEC, Gao Hua Securities Research Estimate</p><

55、p>　　2018 polices have accelerated cost reductions...</p><p>　　We believe the de-subsidization policies published in May 2018 have accelerated this process.</p><p>　　On May 18, the NEA publish

56、ed a notice stating that all the provinces which have not published 2018 wind installation plans should adopt a competitive bidding process when allocating wind project quota and setting FiTs (Feed-in-Tariff), and all on

57、-shore and offshore wind projects should be allocated quotas and FiT based on a competitive bidding process starting from 2019.</p><p>　　On May 31, the NEA, the NDRC and the MoF jointly published a notice re

58、garding solar power, stating that in order to optimize solar installation: 1) no quotas would be allocated for utility-scale solar projects that need subsidies in any form during 2018 (2017 installation: 33GW) and quota

59、for DG (distributed generation) solar projects with subsidies would be limited to 10GW (2017 DG installation: 19GW); 2)</p><p>　　feed-in-tariff of utility-scale solar farms would be reduced by Rmb0.05/kwh to

60、 Rmb0.5/0.6/0.7/kwh in Zone I/II/III and subsidies for DG projects reduced by Rmb0.05/kwh to Rmb0.32/kwh.</p><p>　　Following these policy changes (from May 31 to October 21), share prices for major solar/win

61、d names fell 31%/39% (market cap weighted average) vs. a 17% decline for the CSI300.</p><p>　　圖表 6: Share price movements for key solar and wind companies in China</p><p><b>　　1.1</b>

62、;</p><p>　　Solar Wind CSI300</p><p>　　Note: Solar names: Longi Green, Sungrow Power, Tongwei Co., Xingyi Solar, Zhejiang Chint; Wind names: Longyuan Power, Huaneng Renewable, Goldwind</p&

63、gt;<p><b>　　資料來源：Wind</b></p><p>　　Key solar products have seen a significant ASP decline during June to October (vs. January-May), as the abrupt policy changes caused a sharp decline in i

64、nstallations during 3Q18. China polysilicon/wafer/cell ASPs fell as much as 23%/37%/32% in</p><p>　　June-October vs. declines of 8%/25%/25% in January-May. Module ASPs saw a slight recovery in late August dr

65、iven by the start-up of front-runner programs.</p><p>　　圖表 7: ASP movement of key solar products in China圖表 8: Average bidding price for 2.0MW wind turbine</p><p>　　Mono module Multi module Mon

66、o cell Multi cell Mono wafer Multi wafer Polysilicon</p><p><b>　　3,800</b></p><p><b>　　3,700</b></p><p><b>　　3,600</b></p><p><b&

67、gt;　　3,500</b></p><p><b>　　3,400</b></p><p><b>　　3,300</b></p><p><b>　　3,200</b></p><p><b>　　3,100</b></p>

68、<p><b>　　3,000</b></p><p><b>　　2,900</b></p><p>　　-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%</p><p>　　Jun-Oct 2018Jan-May 2018</p><p>　　Ave

69、rage bidding price for 2.0MW turbine</p><p>　　資料來源：PV insight資料來源：Goldwind</p><p>　　We estimate average LCOE of utility-scale solar and on-shore wind power was US$0.063/kwh and US$0.060/kwh in

70、2018, and we expect technological advancement could drive further cost reductions of 25% and 200% in 2018-23E. We expect solar</p><p>　　LCOE reduction to mainly be driven by upstream capex reduction and LCOE

71、 reduction to be driven by an improvement in system efficiencies.</p><p>　　圖表 9: We estimate 25% and 20% LCOE reduction potential for solar and wind in 2018-23E</p><p>　　LCOE calculation for maj

72、or power projects in China</p><p><b>　　0.120.12</b></p><p><b>　　0.100.10</b></p><p><b>　　0.080.08</b></p><p><b>　　0.060.06

73、</b></p><p><b>　　0.040.04</b></p><p><b>　　0.020.02</b></p><p><b>　　0.00-</b></p><p>　　LCOE-2018ELCOE-2023E</p><

74、p>　　資料來源：Gao Hua Securities Research</p><p>　　Solar cost reductions driven by capex reduction</p><p>　　We forecast LCOE of utility-scale solar to fall 25% in 2018-23E (22 ppt from capex reduc

75、tion and 3 ppt from efficiency improvements). We expect unit capex for utility-scale solar power to fall from US$0.66/w in 2018E to US$0.52/w in 2023E.</p><p>　　圖表 10: We expect lower capex to be the main dr

76、iver of reduction in solar LCOE</p><p>　　Utility-scale solar LCOE/CAPEX breakdown and sensitivity analysis</p><p><b>　　0.70</b></p><p><b>　　(USD/w)</b></p

77、><p><b>　　0.07</b></p><p><b>　　0.06</b></p><p><b>　　0.600.05</b></p><p><b>　　0.50</b></p><p><b>　　0.04&

78、lt;/b></p><p><b>　　0.03</b></p><p><b>　　0.02</b></p><p><b>　　0.40</b></p><p><b>　　0.01</b></p><p><b&

79、gt;　　0.30</b></p><p><b>　　0.00</b></p><p>　　2018E2023E</p><p>　　Depreciation costFinancial costOPEX</p><p><b>　　0.20</b></p><

80、;p><b>　　0.10</b></p><p><b>　　0.00</b></p><p>　　2018E2023E</p><p>　　CAPEX(Rmb/kw)</p><p>　　2,8353,1503,5003,8504,235</p><p>

81、;　　1,1370.300.330.370.400.45</p><p>　　1,1970.280.310.350.380.42</p><p>　　1,2600.270.300.330.370.40</p><p>　　CAPEX(Rmb/kw)</p><p>　　Poly production cost

82、Poly gross profitWafer processing cost Wafer gross profitCell processing costCell gross profit Module processing costModule gross profitSolar inverter</p><p><b>　　BOS</b></p><p>

83、;　　資料來源：Gao Hua Securities Research</p><p>　　Technological advances to drive cost reductions across value chain</p><p>　　We expect technological advances to be the main driver of cost reductions

84、 across the value chain.</p><p>　　Poly-silicon: More advanced hydrogenation process to reduce electricity costs. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), electricity costs account for 48% of product

85、ion costs for polysilicon. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), average unit power consumption was 65Kwh/kg in 2018, and is expected to be further reduced to 58kwh/kg in 2025E through a more a

86、dvanced hydrogenation process. In addition, more leading players are building new capacity in regions with </p><p>　　圖表 11: Electricity is the largest component for polysilicon production</p><p>

87、;　　Cost breakdown of polysilicon production</p><p>　　圖表 12: Unit power consumption could fall from 65kwh/kg in 2018 to 58kwh/kg in 2025</p><p>　　Average unit power consumption in polysilicon pro

88、duction process</p><p>　　85.0 (Kwh/kg)</p><p><b>　　80.0</b></p><p><b>　　75.0</b></p><p>　　Electricity Silicon metal Labour</p><p>　

89、　Gas, steam, O&M and others</p><p><b>　　70.0</b></p><p><b>　　65.0</b></p><p><b>　　60.0</b></p><p><b>　　55.0</b></

90、p><p><b>　　50.0</b></p><p>　　201620172018202020222025</p><p>　　Unit power consumtion</p><p>　　資料來源：BNEF資料來源：CPIA</p><p>　　? Wafers: More a

91、dvanced diamond wire (DW) cutting to increase wafer yield, and rising mono penetration to drive efficiencies. We expect rising cost performance and better cost-reduction potential and upside for efficiency improvement to

92、 further drive market share gains by mono solutions. We believe mono wafers, which have a more favorable molecular structure, are more adaptable to more advanced DW cutting technology, which increases wafer yield and red

93、uces unit polysilicon consumption.</p><p>　　圖表 13: Global mono penetration to rise from 28% in 2017 to 55% in 2021E</p><p>　　Market share of multi and mono solution</p><p>　　圖表 14:

94、Mono wafers continue to see rising power output</p><p>　　Power output of multi and mono wafers</p><p><b>　　120%</b></p><p><b>　　5.5</b></p><p>&

95、lt;b>　　100%</b></p><p><b>　　5.0</b></p><p><b>　　80%</b></p><p><b>　　60%</b></p><p><b>　　4.5</b></p><

96、p><b>　　40%</b></p><p><b>　　4.0</b></p><p><b>　　20%3.5</b></p><p><b>　　0%</b></p><p>　　201620172018201920202021&

97、lt;/p><p>　　Multi Mono</p><p><b>　　3.0</b></p><p>　　20112012201320142015201620172018</p><p>　　Multi wafer power outputMono wafer power output</p

98、><p>　　資料來源：BNEF資料來源：BNEF</p><p>　　圖表 15: Cost breakdown of wafer production圖表 16: DW cutting enables mono wafers to reduce</p><p>　　polysilicon consumption</p><p>　　Per

99、-watt polysilicon consumption of multi and mono wafers</p><p><b>　　4.0</b></p><p><b>　　3.5</b></p><p><b>　　3.0</b></p><p><b>　

100、　2.5</b></p><p><b>　　2.0</b></p><p><b>　　1.5</b></p><p><b>　　1.0</b></p><p><b>　　0.5</b></p><p><b

101、>　　6.0</b></p><p><b>　　5.0</b></p><p><b>　　4.0</b></p><p><b>　　3.0</b></p><p><b>　　2.0</b></p><p>

102、<b>　　1.0</b></p><p><b>　　0.0</b></p><p>　　MultiMono</p><p>　　Polysilicon-to-brickBrick-to-wafer</p><p><b>　　0.0</b></p><

103、;p>　　201320142015201620172018</p><p>　　MultiMono</p><p>　　資料來源：BNEF資料來源：BNEF</p><p>　　圖表 17: BNEF expect DW cutting to enable mono wafers to reach 63pic yield per 1kg bric

104、k in 2018</p><p>　　Average wafer yield per 1kg brick and DW consumption per pic</p><p><b>　　64.02.5</b></p><p><b>　　62.0</b></p><p><b>　　

105、60.0</b></p><p><b>　　58.0</b></p><p><b>　　56.0</b></p><p><b>　　54.0</b></p><p><b>　　52.0</b></p><p>&

106、lt;b>　　2.0</b></p><p><b>　　1.5</b></p><p><b>　　1.0</b></p><p><b>　　0.5</b></p><p><b>　　50.0</b></p><

107、p><b>　　20172018</b></p><p><b>　　0.0</b></p><p>　　Multi-wafer yieldMono-wafer yield</p><p>　　Multi-DW consumption(RHS)Mono-DW consumption(RHS)</p>

108、<p><b>　　資料來源：BNEF</b></p><p>　　Cells/modules: High-efficiency cell/dual-glass solutions to drive efficiency. We expect efficiency improvement to be the key driver of cost reductions for c

109、ell/modules. In the short term, PERC (passivated emitter and rear cell) solution could expand market share from 12% in 2017 to 41% in 2020 according to BNEF. After that, mainstream solution could gradually shift to the H

110、IT (heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer) and IBC (interdigitated back contact) solutions. In addition, module manufactu</p><p>　　圖表 18: High-efficiency cells to gain market share over the long term</

111、p><p>　　Market share of different types of solar cell</p><p>　　圖表 19: Average year-end cell power output by technologies</p><p><b>　　100%</b></p><p><b>　

112、　90%</b></p><p><b>　　80%</b></p><p><b>　　70%</b></p><p><b>　　60%</b></p><p><b>　　50%</b></p><p><b

113、>　　40%</b></p><p><b>　　30%</b></p><p><b>　　20%</b></p><p><b>　　10%</b></p><p><b>　　0%</b></p><p>　

114、　2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021</p><p>　　N-type mono IBC N-type mono HIT</p><p>　　N-type mono PERT</p><p>　　P-type mono PERC/PERL P-type mono Al-BSF</p><p>　　P-type mult

115、i PERC P-type multi Al-BSF</p><p><b>　　7.0</b></p><p><b>　　6.0</b></p><p><b>　　5.0</b></p><p><b>　　4.0</b></p>&l

116、t;p><b>　　3.0</b></p><p><b>　　2.0</b></p><p><b>　　1.0</b></p><p><b>　　0.0</b></p><p>　　Multi Al-BSF Multi PERC

117、Mono Al-BSF Mono PERC N-type PERTHJT</p><p><b>　　20172018</b></p><p>　　資料來源：BNEF資料來源：BNEF</p><p>　　圖表 20: Average module efficiency forecast圖表 21: Dual-glass sol

118、ution to gain market share</p><p>　　Market share of different back-cover solution</p><p><b>　　19.0%</b></p><p><b>　　18.5%</b></p><p><b>　　

119、18.0%</b></p><p><b>　　17.5%</b></p><p><b>　　17.0%</b></p><p><b>　　16.5%</b></p><p><b>　　16.0%</b></p><p

120、><b>　　15.5%</b></p><p><b>　　15.0%</b></p><p><b>　　14.5%</b></p><p><b>　　14.0%</b></p><p>　　201320142015201620172