宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)曼昆12章

1、,,,5THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN長(zhǎng)期中的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì),長(zhǎng)期(LR)：所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量都有充足的時(shí)間作出調(diào)整。例如，超越一個(gè)合同時(shí)期。 實(shí)際（real）：沒有貨幣，或不考慮貨幣的影響。 屬于古典理論。 考慮的是一個(gè)趨勢(shì),,,,,Production and Growth生產(chǎn)與增長(zhǎng),Chapter 12,Long-Run Economics Growth is the Key to Risin

2、g Living Standard,A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.一國(guó)的生活水平?jīng)Q定于它生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)的能力。,What is economic growth?,Economic Growth: represents the expansion of a country’s potential GD

3、P or national output.Potential GDP :the level of GDP attained when all firms are producing at capacity.Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) shifts outward.,Production and Growth生產(chǎn)與增長(zhǎng),In the United States over the pas

4、t century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.在美國(guó)過去一個(gè)世紀(jì)里，按人均實(shí)際GDP衡量的平均收入每年增長(zhǎng)2％左右。1978-2006:我國(guó)GDP年均實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率為9.6%2012:我國(guó)實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)7.8%,表1. 不同的增長(zhǎng)經(jīng)歷,Copyright©2004 Sout

5、h-Western,國(guó)別 時(shí)期 期初人均GDP 期末人均GDP 增長(zhǎng)率（每年）,,日本 1890～2008 1540美元 35200美元 2.71％ 巴西 1900～2008 779 10070

6、 2.40 墨西哥 1900～2008 1159 14270 2.35 德國(guó) 1870～2008 2184 35940 2.05 加拿大 1870～2008 2375

7、 36220 1.99 中國(guó) 1900～2008 716 6020 1.99 美國(guó) 1870～2008 4007 46970 1.80 阿根廷

8、 1900～2008 2293 14020 1.69 英國(guó) 1870～2008 4080 36130 1.47 印度 1900～2008 675 296

9、0 1.38 印度尼西亞 1900～2008 891 3830 1.36巴基斯坦 1900～2008 737 2700 1.21 孟加拉國(guó) 1900~2008 62

10、3 1440 0.78,Calculating Growth Rate,The Growth Rate of GDP during a particular year.For longer periods of time, we can use average annual growth rate.For longer periods of time, we get

11、 approximately the same answer by averaging growth rate for each year.,Compounding and the Rule of 70復(fù)利計(jì)算與70規(guī)則的魔力,According to the rule of 70, if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable

12、doubles in approximately 70/x years.根據(jù)70規(guī)則，如果某個(gè)變量每年按x%增長(zhǎng)，那么在將近70/x年以后該變量翻一番。Number of years to double=70/Growth Rate,An Example of the Rule of 70,$5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per year, will double in size in 1

13、0 years 70/ 7 = 10,70規(guī)則的一個(gè)例子,每年利率為7％的5000美元投資在10年后的價(jià)值翻一番。70/ 7 = 10,20世紀(jì)90年代之前，印度的收入每50年翻一番，而韓國(guó)每10年翻一番。平均來說，一個(gè)印度人的收入將是他祖父的兩倍，而一個(gè)韓國(guó)人的收入將是他祖父的32倍……我無法想象一個(gè)人看到這些數(shù)字時(shí)不會(huì)認(rèn)為其代表了巨大的可能性。印度政府是否能采取某

14、些行動(dòng)使印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)像印度尼西亞和埃及的經(jīng)濟(jì)那樣增長(zhǎng)？如果能，那么應(yīng)該采取哪些政策呢？如果不能，那么到底是哪些‘印度的特性’使其無法這么做呢？這些問題中間所包含的人類福利含義本身就是非常重要的：一旦我們開始思考這些問題，我們就發(fā)現(xiàn)很難再去思考其他問題___羅伯特?盧卡斯（Lucas, R.）在劍橋大學(xué)所作的“馬歇爾講座”上的講話,Economic Growth Around the World,Annual growth rates t

15、hat seem small become large when compounded for many years. Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.,世界各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),看起來很小的增長(zhǎng)率在許多年的復(fù)利計(jì)算之后變得很大。復(fù)利計(jì)算 是指在一個(gè)時(shí)期內(nèi)的增長(zhǎng)率的累積。,,Tips:Small differenc

16、e in growth rate are important.Why do growth rate matter?The benefit of an earlier start Example: Standard of living in China and Japan.The rich get richer,What determines how fast economics grow?,可以用柯布—道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)說

17、明從生產(chǎn)率和要素投入增長(zhǎng)兩個(gè)角度分析經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的研究線路。 Q=A.Lα Kβ，其中Q為產(chǎn)量，L、K分別代表勞動(dòng)和資本投入量，A為技術(shù)狀況， α、 β分別代表勞動(dòng)和資本在生產(chǎn)過程中的產(chǎn)出彈性。(α+ β=1) 進(jìn)行代數(shù)變換可得到： △Y/Y= α（△L/L）+ β （△K/K）+△A/A 它表明國(guó)民收入增長(zhǎng)率可被分解為三個(gè)部分： 1、勞動(dòng)要素投入量的增長(zhǎng)率； 2、資本要素投入量的增長(zhǎng)

18、率； 3、全要素生產(chǎn)率（total factor productivity，簡(jiǎn)稱TFP）,Four Wheels of Economic Growth,The Factors of Production 生產(chǎn)要素Physical capital 物質(zhì)資本Human capital 人力資本Natural resources

19、 自然資源Technological knowledge 技術(shù)知識(shí),How Productivity Is Determined,Physical Capitalis a produced factor of production.It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production

20、process.is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services.Tools used to build or repair automobiles.Tools used to build furniture.Office buildings, schools, etc.,生產(chǎn)率是如何決定的,物質(zhì)資本是生產(chǎn)出

21、來的生產(chǎn)要素。它是生產(chǎn)過程的投入，也是過去生產(chǎn)過程的產(chǎn)出。是用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)的設(shè)備與建筑物的存量。用于生產(chǎn)或修理汽車的工具。用于生產(chǎn)家具的工具。辦公樓，學(xué)校等等…,How Productivity Is Determined,Human Capitalthe economist’s term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through educatio

22、n, training, and experience Like physical capital, human capital raises a nation’s ability to produce goods and services.,生產(chǎn)率是如何決定的,人力資本經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用來指工人通過教育、培訓(xùn)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)而獲得的知識(shí)和技能的一個(gè)術(shù)語(yǔ)。 和物質(zhì)資本一樣，人力資本提高一個(gè)國(guó)家生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)的能力。,How Productivity

23、 Is Determined,Natural Resourcesinputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits.Renewable resources include trees and forests.Nonrenewable resources include petroleum

24、and coal.can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services.,生產(chǎn)率是如何決定的,自然資源由自然界提供的用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)的投入，如土地、河流和礦藏?？稍偕Y源包括樹木和森林。不可再生資源包括石油和煤炭?？赡苁侵匾?，但它們并不是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體生產(chǎn)物品與勞

25、務(wù)中生產(chǎn)率高的必要條件。,How Productivity Is Determined,Technological Knowledgesociety’s understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. Human capital refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding

26、to the labor force.,生產(chǎn)率是如何決定的,技術(shù)知識(shí)社會(huì)對(duì)生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)的最好方法的理解。 人力資本是指把這些理解傳遞給勞動(dòng)力的資源消耗。,The Production Function 生產(chǎn)函數(shù),Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in

27、 production and the quantity of output from production.經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家經(jīng)常用生產(chǎn)函數(shù)來描述用于生產(chǎn)的投入量和生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)出量之間的關(guān)系。,The Production Function,Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = quantity of outputA = available production technologyL = quantity of la

28、borK = quantity of physical capitalH = quantity of human capitalN = quantity of natural resourcesF( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined.,生產(chǎn)函數(shù),Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = 產(chǎn)出量A = 可得到的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)

29、L = 勞動(dòng)量K = 物質(zhì)資本量H = 人力資本量N = 自然資源量F( ) 是一個(gè)表示投入如何結(jié)合起來以生產(chǎn) 產(chǎn)出的函數(shù)。,The Production Function 生產(chǎn)函數(shù),A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, 如果給定任何一個(gè)正數(shù)x，下式成立，則該生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的規(guī)模收益不

30、變。xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well. 這就是說，投入翻番就會(huì)使產(chǎn)出翻番。,The Production Function,Production functions with constant returns to scale have an inter

31、esting implication.Setting x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)Where:Y/L = output per workerK/L = physical capital per workerH/L = human capital per workerN/L = natural resources per worker,生產(chǎn)函數(shù),規(guī)模收益不

32、變的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)有一個(gè)令人感興趣的含義。設(shè) x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)這里:Y/L = 每個(gè)工人的產(chǎn)量K/L = 每個(gè)工人的物質(zhì)資本H/L = 每個(gè)工人的人力資本N/L = 每個(gè)工人的自然資源,The Production Function,The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends

33、 on physical capital per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A).,生產(chǎn)函數(shù),這個(gè)公式說明，生產(chǎn)率(Y/L)取決于每個(gè)工人的物質(zhì)資本 (K/L)，每個(gè)工人的人力資本 (H/L)，每個(gè)工人的自然資源， (N

34、/L)，以及技術(shù)狀況 (A).,Diminishing Returns,As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns.Because of diminishing returns, an incre

35、ase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while.,收益遞減,隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個(gè)單位資本中生產(chǎn)額外產(chǎn)量減少。這種特性被稱為收益遞減。因?yàn)槭找孢f減，儲(chǔ)蓄率增加所引起的更高的增長(zhǎng)只是暫時(shí)的。,,,,K/L,Q/L,,,,V,,Steady state at V in the long run,,,K/L,Q/L,,,,,,,,V,V’,Technol

36、ogical change moves the steady state from V to V’,,Which is more important for economic growth: more capital or technological change?Technological change: The key to sustaining economic growth.,Making the connection,Try

37、 to find the reasons for the rapid economic growth of China over past three decades.,,Two factors: 1.The massive movement of workers from agriculture to manufacturing jobs. 2. The transformation of its economy int

38、o a market system.Which factor is more important?,改革以來中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的源泉,Economic Growth and Public Policy經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與公共政策,Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.政府可以做很多事情來提高生產(chǎn)率和生活水平。,ECONOMIC GROWT

39、H AND PUBLIC POLICY,Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living StandardsEncourage saving and investment.Encourage investment from abroadEncourage education and training.Establish secure property rights an

40、d maintain political stability.Promote free trade.Promote research and development.,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與公共政策,提高生產(chǎn)率和生活水平的政府政策鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄和投資鼓勵(lì)來自國(guó)外的投資鼓勵(lì)教育和培訓(xùn)建立完善的產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)機(jī)制和政治穩(wěn)定促進(jìn)自由貿(mào)易促進(jìn)研究與開發(fā),The Importance of Saving and Investment 儲(chǔ)蓄與投資的重要性

41、,One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital.提高未來生產(chǎn)率的一種方法就是把更多現(xiàn)期資源投資于資本的生產(chǎn)。,Figure 1 Growth and Investment,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

42、,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,a,),,G,r,o,w,t,h,,R,a,t,e,,1,9,6,0,–,1991,(,b,),,I,n,v,e,s,t,m,e,n,t,,1,9,6,0,–,1991,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Banglade

43、sh,Chile,Rwanda,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Bangladesh,Chile,Rwanda,Investment (percent of GDP),Growth Rate (percent),0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,0,

44、10,20,30,40,,,(a) 1960-1991增長(zhǎng)率,(b) 1960-1991投資,圖1. 增長(zhǎng)與投資,Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect,As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is cal

45、led diminishing returns.Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while.,收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng),隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個(gè)單位資本中生產(chǎn)額外產(chǎn)量減少。這種特性被稱為收益遞減。因?yàn)槭找孢f減，儲(chǔ)蓄率增加所引起的更高的增長(zhǎng)只是暫時(shí)的。,Diminishin

46、g Returns and the Catch-Up Effect 收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng),In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas.在長(zhǎng)期中，高儲(chǔ)蓄率引起高水平的生產(chǎn)率和收入，但在這些變量中并沒有高增長(zhǎng)。,Dimin

47、ishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect 收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng),The catch-up effect refers to the condition that, other things being equal, it is easier for a country to grow fast if it starts out relatively poor.追趕效應(yīng)是指在其他條件相同的情況下，如果

48、一國(guó)開始時(shí)較窮，它要迅速增長(zhǎng)是容易的。,Investment from Abroad來自國(guó)外的投資,Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources.政府可以通過鼓勵(lì)來自國(guó)外的投資來增加資本積累和長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。,Investment fr

49、om Abroad,Investment from abroad takes several forms:Foreign Direct InvestmentCapital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity.Foreign Portfolio InvestmentInvestments financed with foreign money but operated

50、 by domestic residents.,來自國(guó)外的投資,來自國(guó)外的投資采取幾種形式：外國(guó)直接投資由外國(guó)實(shí)體擁有并經(jīng)營(yíng)的資本投資。外國(guó)有價(jià)證券投資用外國(guó)貨幣籌資，但由國(guó)內(nèi)居民經(jīng)營(yíng)的投資。,Education,For a country’s long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital.In the

51、 United States, each year of schooling raises a person’s wage on average by about 10 percent.Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take adv

52、antage of them.,教育,教育對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家的長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)成功至少與物質(zhì)資本投資同樣重要。在美國(guó)，每一年正規(guī)教育使人的平均收入增加10％左右。因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一種方法是提供良好的學(xué)校，并鼓勵(lì)人們利用這些學(xué)校。,Education 教育,An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, w

53、hich in turn, might enter society’s pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others.一個(gè)受過教育的人會(huì)產(chǎn)生一些有關(guān)如何最好地生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)的新思想，這些新思想進(jìn)入社會(huì)知識(shí)寶庫(kù)，并給他人帶來外部效益。,Education 教育,One problem facing some poor countries is the brain

54、 drain--the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.一些貧窮國(guó)家面臨的一個(gè)問題是人才外流——許多受過最高教育的工人移民到富國(guó)。,Property Rights and Political Stability,Property rights refer to the ability of people to exerci

55、se authority over the resources they own.An economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work.It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.

56、,產(chǎn)權(quán)和政治穩(wěn)定,產(chǎn)權(quán)是指人們對(duì)其擁有的資源行使權(quán)力的能力。價(jià)格制度發(fā)生作用的一個(gè)重要前提是經(jīng)濟(jì)中廣泛尊重產(chǎn)權(quán)。讓投資者感到他們的投資安全是必要的。,Making the connection,What explain rapid economic growth in Bostwana?The most important reason is the pro- growth policy of its government.,Fr

57、ee Trade,Trade is, in some ways, a type of technology.A country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance.,自由貿(mào)易,在某些方面，貿(mào)易是一種技

58、術(shù)。取消了貿(mào)易限制的國(guó)家將有重大技術(shù)進(jìn)步以后出現(xiàn)的同類經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。,Free Trade,Some countries engage in . . .. . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries. . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging inter

59、action with other countries.,自由貿(mào)易,一些國(guó)家實(shí)施 . . .. . . 內(nèi)向型 貿(mào)易政策, 避免與世界其他國(guó)家相互交易。 . . . 外向型 貿(mào)易政策，鼓勵(lì)與其他國(guó)家相互交易。,Research and Development,The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living.Most tec

60、hnological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors.Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.,研究與開發(fā),技術(shù)知識(shí)的進(jìn)步帶來更高

61、的生活水平。大多數(shù)技術(shù)進(jìn)步來自企業(yè)和個(gè)人所進(jìn)行的私人研究。政府通過補(bǔ)貼、減稅和專利制度來鼓勵(lì)新技術(shù)的開發(fā)。,CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup,The causes of the changes in productivity growth are elusive.The slowdown cannot be traced to the factors of prod

62、uction that are most easily measured.Many economists attribute the slowdown and speedup in economic growth to changes in technology and the creation of new ideas.,案例研究:生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)放慢與加快,生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)變化的原因是捉摸不定的。這種生產(chǎn)率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易衡量的生產(chǎn)

63、要素。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家把經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)快慢歸因于技術(shù)變革和新思想的創(chuàng)造。,Figure 2 The Growth in Real GDP Per Person,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Growth Rate,(percent,per year),1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,3.5,4.0,1,8,7,0,–,1890,1,8,9,0,–,1910,1,9,1,0,–,1930,1,9,3,0,–,19

64、50,1,9,5,0,–,1970,1,9,7,0,–,1990,1,9,9,0,–,2000,0,增長(zhǎng)率（每年百分比）,Population Growth 人口增長(zhǎng),Economists and other social scientists have long debated how population growth affects a society。 長(zhǎng)期以來，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和其他社會(huì)學(xué)家一直爭(zhēng)論人口增長(zhǎng)如何影響一個(gè)社會(huì)。,

65、Population Growth,Population growth interacts with other factors of production:Stretching natural resourcesDiluting the capital stockPromoting technological progress,人口增長(zhǎng),人口增長(zhǎng)與其他生產(chǎn)要素相互作用:使自然資源量更加緊張稀釋了資本存量促進(jìn)了技術(shù)進(jìn)步,,馬

66、爾薩斯人口論： 人口增加規(guī)律導(dǎo)致人類永遠(yuǎn)陷于貧困之中：一旦食物供給超過了維持生存水平，人口就會(huì)加速增長(zhǎng) 只有通過戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、瘟疫、災(zāi)難才能控制人口增長(zhǎng) 人口增長(zhǎng)是社會(huì)貧困的根由 依據(jù)是邊際報(bào)酬遞減：土地固定，人口增加，導(dǎo)致兩個(gè)級(jí)數(shù)：食物按算術(shù)級(jí)數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，人口按幾何級(jí)數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。 對(duì)在什么地方？ 人口增長(zhǎng)過快限制了生活水平的提高 錯(cuò)在什么地方？ 忽略了技術(shù)進(jìn)步的作用。,,,,

67、,勞動(dòng),產(chǎn)量,,Summary,Economic prosperity, as measured by real GDP per person, varies substantially around the world.The average income of the world’s richest countries is more than ten times that in the world’s poorest count

68、ries.The standard of living in an economy depends on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services.,小結(jié),按人均GDP衡量的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮在世界各國(guó)差別很大。世界最富裕國(guó)家的平均收入是世界最貧窮國(guó)家的10倍以上。一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的生活水平取決于該經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)的能力。,Summary,Productivity depends on