汽車及汽車零部件行業(yè)2019年投資策略智能汽車加速來(lái)臨

1、投資要點(diǎn)（行業(yè)評(píng)級(jí)：增持）整車端：需求穩(wěn)定，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局寡頭化01?乘用車行業(yè)增速降檔，單車均價(jià)提高，TOP3集中度提升，建議增持：上汽集團(tuán)，廣汽集團(tuán)H，受益：吉利汽車?客車需求疲軟，車企業(yè)績(jī)承壓，建議增持：宇通客車?新能源持續(xù)高增長(zhǎng)，合資廠商加速布局，產(chǎn)品線明顯豐富，建議增持：上汽集團(tuán)，寧德時(shí)代，比亞迪，受益：旭升股份、?零部件及后市場(chǎng)：汽車電子催生萬(wàn)億市場(chǎng)02?零部件：傳統(tǒng)依靠規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)零部件公司面臨較大壓力，汽車電子帶動(dòng)芯片、半導(dǎo)體等投

2、資機(jī)會(huì)，建議增持：華域汽車，視源股份，受益：中國(guó)氣研，星宇股份，德賽西威，富奧股份，一汽富維?經(jīng)銷商：行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力加劇，預(yù)計(jì)開啟整合元年，受益：中升控股03?重點(diǎn)公司盈利預(yù)測(cè)?給予“增持”評(píng)級(jí)公司：上汽集圖、廣汽集團(tuán)H、比亞迪、宇通客車、寧德時(shí)代、華域汽車、視源股份?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示04?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑、貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)帶來(lái)進(jìn)出口整車、零部件的不確定性加大。誠(chéng)信責(zé)任親和專業(yè)創(chuàng)新請(qǐng)參閱附注免責(zé)聲明2：整車企業(yè)估值仍處于歷史地位汽車（申萬(wàn)）20181

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5、1201881720180713201806082018050420180330201802232018011920171215201711102017092920170825201707212017061620170512201704072017030320170127回顧101800070006000500040003000200010000上漲幅度50004500400035003000250020001500滬深300智能汽車指