汽車(chē)行業(yè)2019年投資策略“智能駕馭，電動(dòng)未來(lái)”淘盡黃沙

1、正文目錄一、投資摘要............................................................................................................8二、行業(yè)現(xiàn)狀：19年預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)0.8%..........................................................................10（一）19年預(yù)

2、計(jì)增長(zhǎng)0.8%........................................................................................10（二）行業(yè)維持第二增長(zhǎng)階段，差異分化、強(qiáng)者更強(qiáng)...........................10（三）乘用車(chē)：需求疲軟疊加政策擾動(dòng)，18年整體表現(xiàn)較弱....................11（四）客車(chē)：行業(yè)集中度提升，海外市場(chǎng)提供成長(zhǎng)

3、空間.........................144.1公交車(chē)：新能源滲透率提高，保有量仍有提升空間..........................164.2座位客車(chē)：結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生變化，龍頭市占率提高................................174.3校車(chē)：競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局穩(wěn)定，龍頭市占率高.....................................184.4臥鋪及其他：以小型車(chē)為主.........

4、....................................194.5海外市場(chǎng)空間大，為優(yōu)秀企業(yè)打開(kāi)更大的成長(zhǎng)空間..........................19（五）卡車(chē)：銷(xiāo)量平穩(wěn)，行業(yè)盈利能力增強(qiáng)...................................205.1行業(yè)現(xiàn)狀與預(yù)判.........................................................205.2行

5、業(yè)周期性減弱，供需關(guān)系重構(gòu).........................................215.3投資角度優(yōu)選重卡零部件廠商...........................................24二、2019三條投資主線：龍頭集中化、新能源化、國(guó)企混改加速............................25（一）行業(yè)整體承壓，龍頭份額提升...........................

6、..............251.1優(yōu)質(zhì)龍頭市占率持續(xù)提升...............................................251.2自主品牌加速洗牌.....................................................29（二）新能源汽車(chē)：產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)明顯，“爆款車(chē)”成為核心看點(diǎn)..................302.1電動(dòng)車(chē)全球化成為大勢(shì)所趨...........

7、..................................302.2政策端：補(bǔ)貼退坡邊際效應(yīng)遞減，雙積分保障中長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展...................342.3供需端：多款新車(chē)型集中上市，“爆款車(chē)”成為核心看點(diǎn)......................362.419年預(yù)計(jì)新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)39%，其中新能源乘用車(chē)增長(zhǎng)45%......................43（三）行業(yè)加速整合，國(guó)企改革釋放新活力......

8、.............................453.1改革是激發(fā)央企、國(guó)企活力的第一要?jiǎng)?wù)...................................453.2先零部件后整車(chē)，改革思路明晰.........................................463.3零部件：雙百改革落地，激勵(lì)、放權(quán)、市場(chǎng)化.............................473.4整車(chē)：整體上市依然是最優(yōu)途徑.

9、........................................48圖18：公交車(chē)歷年銷(xiāo)量（萬(wàn)輛）.............................................................................16圖19：公交車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量（輛）......................................................................

10、...........16圖20：公交車(chē)歷年銷(xiāo)量中新能源滲透率...................................................................17圖21：新能源公交車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量（輛）......................................................................17圖22：公交車(chē)保有量中燃料結(jié)構(gòu)................

11、.............................................................17圖23：國(guó)內(nèi)公交車(chē)歷年保有量持續(xù)增加（萬(wàn)輛）.....................................................17圖24：座位客車(chē)歷年銷(xiāo)量（萬(wàn)輛）................................................................

12、..........18圖25：國(guó)內(nèi)大中型座位客車(chē)銷(xiāo)量結(jié)構(gòu)......................................................................18圖26：座位客車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量（輛）.............................................................................18圖27：宇通在國(guó)內(nèi)大中型座位客車(chē)市場(chǎng)占有率....

13、....................................................18圖28：校車(chē)歷年銷(xiāo)量（輛）....................................................................................19圖29：宇通在校車(chē)領(lǐng)域市占率.....................................................

14、............................19圖30：臥鋪及其他歷年銷(xiāo)量（輛）..........................................................................19圖31：臥鋪及其他月度銷(xiāo)量（輛）..........................................................................19圖32：歷年

15、客車(chē)出口銷(xiāo)量（輛）.............................................................................20圖33：宇通客車(chē)出口銷(xiāo)量（輛）.............................................................................20圖34：宇通海外市場(chǎng)毛利率高于國(guó)內(nèi).....................

16、.................................................20圖35：宇通出口單車(chē)均價(jià)高于國(guó)內(nèi)（萬(wàn)元）............................................................20圖36：廣義重卡月度銷(xiāo)量以及增速.......................................................................

17、...21圖37：分月度物流車(chē)與自卸車(chē)銷(xiāo)量占比情況............................................................21圖38：廣義重卡年度銷(xiāo)量及增速一覽......................................................................22圖39：近三年自卸車(chē)銷(xiāo)量與挖掘機(jī)銷(xiāo)量關(guān)系密切......................

18、...............................22圖40：兩者銷(xiāo)量增速走勢(shì)高度吻合..........................................................................22圖41：全國(guó)社會(huì)物流總額...................................................................................

19、.....23圖42：汽車(chē)行業(yè)年度銷(xiāo)量及同比（萬(wàn)輛）...............................................................25圖43：汽車(chē)行業(yè)月度銷(xiāo)量（萬(wàn)輛）..........................................................................25圖44：分企業(yè)（或集團(tuán)）銷(xiāo)量情況（按銷(xiāo)量前十排序）（萬(wàn)輛）........

20、.........................25圖45：上汽集團(tuán)歷年銷(xiāo)量及同比.............................................................................26圖46：上汽集團(tuán)在汽車(chē)行業(yè)市占率..........................................................................26圖47：上汽大