食品飲料行業(yè)深度報告舌尖美味，調(diào)味品估值、提價之謎

1、目錄1.經(jīng)濟下行周期，調(diào)味品板塊更受青睞............................................811調(diào)味品板塊漲跌幅優(yōu)于食品飲料板塊及滬深300指數(shù)...................812調(diào)味品板塊機構(gòu)配臵比例提升.......................................813調(diào)味品板塊估值長期高于食品板塊和滬深300指數(shù).....................92.調(diào)味品行業(yè)

2、增長空間廣闊...........................................................1021調(diào)味品行業(yè)量價齊升是常態(tài)........................................1022人均消費額仍有近4.5倍的成長空間.................................1123醬油味精市場滲透率高，復(fù)合調(diào)味品空間大......................

3、....1324海天李錦記卡位餐飲，中炬卡位家庭流通............................153.醬油——行業(yè)質(zhì)地優(yōu).................................................................1631醬油行業(yè)仍然由量升主導(dǎo)..........................................1632集中度尚待提升....................

4、..............................1733量增邏輯........................................................173.3.1.生抽代替食鹽、味精，醬油品類不斷增加..............................173.3.2.餐飲用量比家庭烹飪高..............................................1934價增

5、邏輯........................................................193.4.1.醬油價格結(jié)構(gòu)性提升，高級醬油占比不斷提升..........................193.4.2.行業(yè)性提價—成本推動..............................................213.4.3.中美貿(mào)易摩擦對大豆價格僅是短期影響，對醬油毛利率影響約為1.22pct.

6、.....................2335公司比較—海天龍頭風(fēng)范盡顯，中炬、千禾仍有改善空間..............2436日本醬油行業(yè)及龜甲萬發(fā)展借鑒....................................284.醋——亟待大單品和大品牌提升整體消費量...............................3141醋行業(yè)價升量穩(wěn).....................................

7、.............3142人均消費量不足，但短期內(nèi)很難改變................................3243四大名醋呈現(xiàn)地域口味特征........................................3444產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)升級疊加直接提價，推動平均價格增長......................3545“4N”雙梯隊競爭格局.....................................

8、.......385.腌菜——提價空間和市場下沉空間仍然廣闊...............................3951行業(yè)集中度穩(wěn)步提升..............................................3952為什么烏江榨菜脫穎而出？........................................4053消費場景決定了腌菜的消費量...........................

9、...........4154提價頻繁，公司與渠道共贏........................................4255涪陵榨菜提價的天花板在哪里？....................................446.復(fù)合調(diào)味品在餐飲渠道將迎來大發(fā)展..........................................45圖目錄圖1：各行業(yè)年初至今漲幅（算術(shù)平均）..............

10、..............................................................................8圖2：食飲細(xì)分行業(yè)年初至今漲幅（算術(shù)平均）..................................................................................8圖3：機構(gòu)配臵比例............................

11、................................................................................................8圖4：食品飲料細(xì)分板塊估值..............................................................................................................

12、9圖5：國外調(diào)味品企業(yè)估值.................................................................................................................9圖6：調(diào)味品公司估值...................................................................................

13、...................................10圖7：調(diào)味品行業(yè)市場規(guī)模...............................................................................................................10圖8：醬醋及類似制品企業(yè)單位數(shù)...........................................

14、..........................................................10圖9：調(diào)味品行業(yè)拆分量...................................................................................................................11圖10：調(diào)味品行業(yè)拆分價（元kg）...............

15、........................................................................................11圖11：調(diào)味品細(xì)分板塊變化..............................................................................................................11圖12：我

16、國調(diào)味品人均消費額遞增...................................................................................................12圖13：2017年各國調(diào)味品行業(yè)人均消費額.......................................................................................

17、.12圖14：各國調(diào)味品人均消費額時間變化............................................................................................13圖15：2016中國調(diào)味品市場滲透率.......................................................................................

18、...........13圖16：調(diào)味品公司品牌占有率變動（商超流通渠道）.......................................................................14圖17：2018年各國調(diào)味品行業(yè)集中度情況........................................................................................1

19、4圖18：調(diào)味品銷售渠道結(jié)構(gòu)..............................................................................................................15圖19：各公司渠道占比...................................................................................

20、..................................15圖20：調(diào)味品行業(yè)全景圖.................................................................................................................16圖21：醬油行業(yè)零售額及同比增速.........................................

21、..........................................................16圖22：醬油行業(yè)零售量及同比增速...................................................................................................16圖23：日本醬油行業(yè)CR3..............................

22、........................................................................................................17圖24：中國醬油行業(yè)CR3.....................................................................................................

23、.................................17圖25：人均醬油用量（年升）.........................................................................................................17圖26：醬油品類發(fā)展歷程....................................................

24、.............................................................18圖27：1g鹽約等于5ml醬油............................................................................................................18圖28：生抽占比將不斷提升...................

25、...........................................................................................18圖29：餐飲與家庭烹飪調(diào)味品用量（gkg食物）..............................................................................19圖30：餐飲行業(yè)收入及同比增速.........

26、..............................................................................................19圖31：醬油分級統(tǒng)計..................................................................................................................

27、......19圖32：海天及中炬的毛利率對比.......................................................................................................21圖33：醬油成本構(gòu)成占比................................................................................

28、.................................21圖34：大豆價格走勢........................................................................................................................22圖35：白砂糖價格走勢..........................................

29、...........................................................................22圖36：瓦楞紙價格走勢.....................................................................................................................22圖37：玻璃及塑料價格指數(shù)

30、走勢.......................................................................................................22圖38：燃料動力類價格走勢....................................................................................................

31、..........23圖39：中國大豆產(chǎn)量與進口量對比...................................................................................................23圖40：中國大豆主要進口國..............................................................................

32、................................23圖41：大豆及豆粕市場價.................................................................................................................24圖42：存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)對比...............................................