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1、FECASTINGCHANGEINMILITARYTECHNOLOGY20202040MICHAELO’HANLONFECASTINGCHANGEINMILITARYTECHNOLOGY20202040MICHAELO’HANLONEXECUTIVESUMMARY1Whatchangesarelikelyinmilitarytechnologyoverthenext20yearsThisquestionisfinatingonitsow

2、nterms.MeimptantlyansweringitiscrucialfmakingappropriatechangesinU.S.alliedweaponrymilitaryoperationswartimepreparationsdefensebudgetpriities.Tobesuretechnologyisadvancingfastinmanyrealms.Butitisnotenoughtowaveone’sarmse

3、xuberantlyaboutfuturisticmilitarypossibilities.Thestakesaretoohigh.Defenseresourcedecisionsneedtobebasedonconcreteanalysisthatbreaksdownthecategiesofmajmilitarytechnologicalinventioninnovationonebyoneexamineseach.Presuma

4、blythoseareaswherethingsarechangingfastestmaywarrantthemostinvestmentaswellasthemostcreativethinkingabouthowtomodifytacticsoperationalplanstoexploitnewopptunities(mitigatenewvulnerabilitiesthatadversariesmaydevelopasares

5、ultofthesesamelikelyadvances).Buildingonthemethodologyemployedinmyearlier2000bookTechnologicalChangetheFutureofWarfarerefinedfurtherinmyrecentpaper“ARetrospectiveontheSoCalledRevolutioninMilitaryAffairs20002020”thispaper

6、attemptstolooktwodecadesintothefuturetoaidinthisimptanttaskfAmericandefenseplanners.Mywkinghypothesisisthat20yearsislongenoughtorepresentatrueextrapolationintothefuture.Yetitisalsoshtenoughthatexistingtrendsinlabatyresea

7、rchcanhelpusunderstthefuturewithoutindulginginrampantspeculation.Sincemanydefensesystemstakeacoupleofdecadestodevelopitshouldnotbeanoverlydauntingtasktogaugehowthewldmightlookintermsofdeployablemilitarytechnology20yearsf

8、romnow.Thisapproachisnotfoolproofasdiscussedinmyfthcomingbookbutifundertakenwiththeproperdegreeofacknowledgeduncertaintycanstillbequiteuseful.Thispaper’scategybycategyexaminationofmilitarytechnologyemploysthesamebasicfra

9、mewkthatIdevelopedinmybookpublishedin2000TechnologicalChangetheFutureofWarfare.Theceofthatbookwasananalysisofongoinglikelyfuturedevelopmentsin29differenttypesofmilitaryrelatedtechnologies.Mygoalwas1ThispaperdrawsfromMich

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