美股-石油與天然氣行業(yè)-煉油與市場迷人的秋天

1、@AttractiveMGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCBennyWongEQUITYANALYST12127619626BenedictAmooRESEARCHASSOCIATE12127610332Refining&MarketingNthAmericaIndustryViewMSBaseCrackIndicatvs.HisticalRange$0$5$10$15$20$25$301471013161922252831343740

2、43464952$bblWeek5YrRange201720185YrAvg.RecentRefining&MarketingIndustryResearch:Refining&Marketing:EarningsWeekOneReadThroughs(30Jul2018)ThemeTrades:ConvictionintoEarnings–NthAmerica(19Jul2018)NthAmerica:VintageValues201

3、9(17Jul2018)USRefining&CanadianOil:NthAmericanTugofWar:CDNUpstreamvs.USDownstream(17Jul2018)streamEnergy:TheCushingConundrum(12Jul2018)Refining&MarketingRefining&MarketingAnAttractiveAutumnRefininghasoutperfmedsinceJulyy

4、etthedownstreamsetupcontinuestolookattractiveheadingintothefallwithrampingTARswideningNAmcrudedifferentialsrobustdomesticproductdem.Marking3QEPSto15%aboveConsensushighlightingDKMPCasthenamestowatch.WeexpectRefiningoutper

5、fmancetocontinuewiththeattractivesetupheadingintothefall.USRefinershaveoutperfmedCanadianproducersby21%(USproducersby18%)sinceour716NthAmericanTugofWarnote(seehere).Mebroadlyourrefiningcoveragehasalsooutpacedenergyby16%t

6、heS&Pby9%(Exhibit1).HeadingintothefallwecontinuetolikethesetupfrefinerswithrobustdomesticproductdemrampingUSturnaroundactivity(TAR)thatwilltightenupdomesticproductsupply(supptingcrackspreads)lessonoildem(wideningdomestic

7、crudepricesdifferentials).USfallturnarounds(TARs)aresettobe15%abovenmalthroughOctoberledbyrobustconactivity...Plannedmaintenanceisscheduledtoramprapidlyreach1.6MMbpdbyOctoberrepresenting~68Mbbl16%ofdomesticdembeingofflin

8、e(Exhibit2).PADDIImaintenanceactivitywilllikelybeparticularlyrobustreaching925Mbpdatpeakaveraging560Mbpd~85%abovenmaloverthenexttwomonths(Exhibit3).WealsoseeelevatedmaintenancelevelsinPADDIPADDIVaveraging170Mbpd(3.5xnmal

9、)84Mbpd(4.5xnmal)respectively.ProvidingsomeoffsetisPADDIIIturnaroundactivitybeing~60%belownmalbyaveraging213Mbpd....whileglobalturnaroundslooklargelynmal.Weexpectmaintenanceactivitytofollowanmalpathoframprelativetothefiv

10、eyearaverage(within10%)peakingatover6MMbpdinOctober.GlobalturnaroundsappeartobeexitingthefallturnaroundseasonalrathersharplywithNovemberactivitybeing30%belownmal.Howevertheretendstobeabitofalagwithinternationaldataexpect

11、someleveloftrueupinthecomingmonthsNovemberDecemberdata.NAmcrudedifferentialswideningacrosstheboard...MajNthAmericancrudespreadshavewidenedoverthelast1.5monthsweexpectthistrendtocontinuesfromsoftseasonaldem(refiningTARs)t

12、herecoveryofSyncrudegrowingNthAmericancrudevolumes.BrentWTIhaswidened125%to$7.33bblsinceJulyLLSMayahavewidened112%to$10.45bblWTIBakkenisnow$1.30bblcomparedto$0.55bbl1.5monthsago(Exhibit4)....especiallyPermianCanadiancrud

13、ediscountsfacinglogisticalconstraints.lpricescontinuestobeininvestfocusasthediscounttoWTIwasalreadywideningto~$1516bblontakeawaycongestionbefea400450MbpdPAApipelinewascurtailedfromastagetankfireon828causingWTISource:Bloo

14、mbergMganStanleyResearchMganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.AsaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMganStanleyResearch.Inves

15、tsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendofthisrept.1September4201804:05AMGMTrevisionpotent

16、ialonthequarterareHFC(49%)DK(33%)PSX(20%)asmarginsareboostedbywideningcrudespreads.Wenotethatweare18%belowConsensusonVasWestCoastcrackscontinuetolag(weloweredourregionalindexby10%)whichalsomoderatedourrevisionsfPBF(20%ab