石油化工行業(yè)2019年中期策略逆流而上、淘沙見(jiàn)金

1、請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和免責(zé)申內(nèi)容目錄1.觀點(diǎn)聚焦.........................................................................................................................................52.油價(jià)：OPEC減產(chǎn)支撐，裂解價(jià)差施壓..................................

2、...................................................62.1.需求預(yù)計(jì)Q3低Q4高..............................................................................................................62.2.OPEC的行為模式：對(duì)供需變化的對(duì)沖具有滯后性................

3、.........................................62.3.時(shí)間上的矛盾：將由裂解價(jià)差撫平.......................................................................................72.4.空間上的矛盾：美國(guó)管道將打通兩個(gè)市場(chǎng).................................................

4、.........................73.煉化：供需壓力漸顯，從綜合優(yōu)勢(shì)看護(hù)城河............................................................................83.1.供需壓力初步顯現(xiàn)....................................................................................

5、.................................83.2.盈利：聚酯上半年仍較好，成品油、烯烴下滑明顯.........................................................93.3.煉化競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)比拼..........................................................................................

6、.........................113.3.1.規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)：民營(yíng)煉化優(yōu)勢(shì)顯著..................................................................................123.3.2.路線(xiàn)：高復(fù)雜系數(shù)、PX長(zhǎng)流程、下游產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈優(yōu)勢(shì).............................................123.3.3.成品油市場(chǎng)：區(qū)域供

7、需和裂解價(jià)差與煉廠桶油利潤(rùn)相關(guān)，煉廠個(gè)體差異同樣重要133.3.4.成本控制：操作費(fèi)用有優(yōu)勢(shì)，財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用、折舊成本有劣勢(shì)...............................163.3.5.綜合比較184.油服：持續(xù)復(fù)蘇，量?jī)r(jià)彈性有望體現(xiàn)......................................................................................194.1.國(guó)際持續(xù)溫和

8、復(fù)蘇...................................................................................................................194.2.國(guó)內(nèi)再現(xiàn)“石油大會(huì)戰(zhàn)”.....................................204.3.油服公司比較：重資產(chǎn)油服公司在景氣回升期彈性更明顯..................

9、........................215.天然氣：消費(fèi)增速回落，管網(wǎng)獨(dú)立利好氣源多元化..............................................................225.1.多種壓力導(dǎo)致天然氣消費(fèi)增速回落.....................................................................................22

10、5.2.管網(wǎng)獨(dú)立有利于氣源多元化..................................................................................................246.投資觀點(diǎn)..................................................................................................

11、.....................................24圖表目錄圖1：2019年上半年主要石化產(chǎn)品價(jià)格變化......................................................................................5圖2：石化行業(yè)上市公司（分板塊）ROE變化................................................

12、..................................5圖3：三大機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)2019年原油需求預(yù)測(cè)調(diào)整情況（百萬(wàn)桶天）..........................................6圖4：2019年Q34需求增速預(yù)計(jì)前低后高（百萬(wàn)桶天）............................................................6圖5：美國(guó)8~9月煉廠檢修季對(duì)原油需求影響（萬(wàn)桶天

13、）...................................6圖6：IMO對(duì)原油加工有拉動(dòng)（百萬(wàn)桶天）......................................................................................6圖7：OPEC的減產(chǎn)情況................................................................

14、........................................................7圖8：OECD庫(kù)存情況..............................................................................................................................7圖9：Brent月差結(jié)構(gòu)變化（美金桶）......

15、..................................................................7圖10：WTI月差結(jié)構(gòu)變化（美金桶）...................................................................7圖11：二疊紀(jì)管道項(xiàng)目2019年投產(chǎn)計(jì)劃...............................................

16、............................................8請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和免責(zé)申圖53：CNG（元方）與汽油（元噸）價(jià)差.....................................................................23圖54：LNG（元噸，右）與柴油（元噸）價(jià)差............................................

17、.................23表1：主要石化產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能需求增速明細(xì)................................................................................................8表2：民營(yíng)煉化PX裝置具有規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)......................................................................

18、.........................12表3：各煉廠（煉化項(xiàng)目）單噸DDA競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力對(duì)比..........................................................................18表4：燃?xì)馄髽I(yè)面對(duì)管網(wǎng)獨(dú)立采取的策略.............................................................................