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1、附錄(英文)TailedOntimeWinterWeatherInfmationfRoadTrafficManagementThomasGerzArnoldTaffernerShinjuParkFelixKeis11InstitutfrPhysikderAtmosphreDeutschesZentrumfrLuftundRaumfahrtOberpfaffenhofenGermany2HydrometeologicalInnovateS

2、olutionsS.L.BarcelonaSpainEmail:STRACTRecentdevelopmentsarereptedontechniquestodeterminetheonsetdurationamounttypeofprecipitationaswellasthesnowicingconditionsatthesurface.Thealgithmsstillunderdevelopmentwillbeusedtofeca

3、sttheweatherinshttomediumleadtimesi.e.fthenext30minutesuptoafewhours(“nowcasting”).Analgithmaimsatdetectingpotentialareasofsnowfallbycombiningreflectivitydataofprecipitationsurfacetemperaturedatafromanumericalmodelaswell

4、assurfacestationsinhighspatialresolution.Anotherapproachcombinesprofilingmeasurementswithnumericalweatherfecastproducts.(e.g.meteodatameasuredbyaircraftpolarimetricradardata)Keywds:typeamountofprecipitationnowcastanticip

5、atingtheweather1INTRODUCTIONWeatherphenomenacontributetocongestionsaccidentsdelaysinalltrafficmodes.Theroadtrafficinparticularisderogatebyadverseweatherlikesnowicefograinstrongwindwindgusts.Increasingtrafficmakestranspta

6、tionevenmevulnerabletoadverseweatherconditions.Todaystakeholdersparticipantsintransptation(beitairbnegroundbased)mostofthetimeonlyreactonadverseweatherwhenthedisruptionhasalreadyhappenedisjustabouttohappen.Futureroadmana

7、gementsystemsshouldproactivelyanticipatedisruptiveweatherelementstheirtimescalesofminutestodayswellinadvancetoavoidtomitigatetheimpactuponthetrafficflow.But“weather”isnotatechnicalproblemthatcanbesimplysolved.Predictingt

8、heweatherisadifficultcomplextaskonlypossiblewithincertainlimits.Itistherefenecessarytoobservefecastthechangingstateoftheatmosphereaspreciselyasrapidlyaspossible.Meovermeasuresarerequiredthattranslate“weather”to“impact”mi

9、nimisethoseimpactsontrafficflowitssurfacepressuredistributionwhetheritwillrainnot.Thefecastofwinterweatherphenomenahoweverlikefreezingraindrizzlelightheavysnowfallisstillademingtask.Thesephenomenaresultfromthesubtleinter

10、playofvariousfactsliketheverticaldistributionoftemperaturehuitycloudcovertypesnowcoversoilmoisturethecompositionoftheatmospherewithaerosolswhichagaininfluencecloudprecipitationprocesses.Thesituationgetsevenmecomplicateda

11、stheseprocessesresultfrominstabilitieswhicharetriggeredbysmallchangesintheatmosphericparameterse.g.whetherthetemperatureatthegroundthroughacertaindepthoftheatmosphereisslightlyabovebelow0C.Indertobetterestimatethefuturea

12、tmosphericstateensemblemodelsgivebetterguidancethanasinglemodelrun.Combinedquantitieslikeensemblemeanspreadothersallowprobabilitiestobeestimatedwhichcanbeusedfadvancedplanning.HereoutputoftheKENDAensemblemodelfromtheGerm

13、anMeteologicalServiceDWDcanbeusedinfuturetoprovidethisprobabilityinfmation.Howeverindertomitigatetheimpactofwintryweatherconditionsonairptoperationsmeefficientlythefocusshouldbelaidonshttermfecasting(termed“nowcasting”)t

14、heseconditions.Thiscomprisestheonsetdurationtypeofprecipitationasrainsnowfreezingrainfog.DLRisdevelopinganowcastingsystemthatprovidesusersinaviationwith0to2hourfecastsofthesewinterweatherconditions[8].Wearguethatasimilar

15、systemimbeddedintheprocessofinfmationsharingfcollabativedecisionmakingwouldalsobebeneficialfoperationsonroadwks.2WINTERWEATHEROBJECTSAcertainwinterweatherphenomenonlikee.g.freezingprecipitationcanbethoughtofacertainvolum

16、eofairwithinwhichthisphenomenoncanbeobserved.Variousobservationsaresuitedfdescribingonetheotherattributeofthatphenomenonase.g.thesurfacetemperaturetheprecipitationtype.Withnodoubttheactualweatherphenomenoncanbedetermined

17、mepreciselywhendatafromvarioussenssarecombined[7].Itistherefeadvisabletothinkofsuchvolumesasweatherobjectswithcertaininherentattributes.Fourpurposesawinterweatherobject(WWO)inacertainlimitedareae.g.anairptadensemotwaywkc

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