瑞銀-美股-石油勘探與產(chǎn)品行業(yè)-北美石油勘探與產(chǎn)品按市值計價的商品更新-2019.6.19-31頁

1、investmentresearchThisrepthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE25.UBSdoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayh

2、aveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.??GlobalResearch19June2019NAmEwemakenochangestoratings.Consensusoilpricesare~20%

3、abovethestripin20202021.NGLsWahaBiggestDeclinesin2QFY20192020acrossBoardNGLshavebeenunderpressurewitha~27%declinein2Q19ascomparedto1Q19inethanea~15%decreasefrom1Q19inPropaneprices.WehighlightedthechangingNGLenvironmentpr

4、eviously(seeJune9thnote)arenowrevisingcpateestimates.WahaAECOspricedeclineshavebeenwellpublicizedournumbersarebeingrevisedtoreflectthisaswell(revisionsreflectedinFigures14).UpdatingPTsValuationWiththedeclinesinthecommodi

5、ties(includingoutyears)adjustmentstodifferentialsweverevisedcpatemodelsNAVsrespectively.AsaresultwearealsoadjustingPTsfourrevisedfreecashflowestimates.TheimpliedmultipleshavelargelyremainedtieintoourNAVsDCFs.Incaseswehav

6、eadjustedmultiplestiedtocreditconcernslineofsighttoFCF(seeUpsideDownsidesfadditionaldetails)eveninthecurrentpricingenvironment.Multiplesalsoshiftdependingonpointinthecycle.WelookatCDSdebtpricingaswellfindicationsofcredit

7、concern.Weveincludedtheupdatedbalancesheetcomparablesgivenourrevisedestimates(Figure16).UpdatingMineralsRoyaltyCoverageWehavealsoupdatedourmineralsestimatesincludingPTsfKRPMNRLVNOMPRT.Thecommoditylowerpricesareexpectedto

8、impactindustrycashflowsshaledrillingactivityatthemargin.AsummaryofthechangescanbefoundinFig7.EquitiesNthAmericaOilCompaniesSecondaryLloydByrneAnalystlloyd.byrne@12127139701WilliamAtchesonAnalystwilliam.atcheson@121271339

9、06EdwardCollAssociateAnalystedward.coll@12127132257NAmE&P19June2019??3Figure4:2021UpdatedCommodityPricingvsPriModelsSource:BloombergUBSestimatesFigure5:PTNewvs.Old&RatingsSource:BloombergUBSestimatesNewPri%Change1YearAgo

10、%ChangeWTI$50.80$55.778.9%$66.0023.0%Brent$57.38$62.378.0%$70.0018.0%l$47.24$51.868.9%$65.6128.0%Bakken$49.65$56.0111.4%$64.9223.5%WCS$38.10$41.838.9%$48.9822.2%MBComposite$26.47$28.757.9%$40.9335.3%HenryHub$2.63$2.640.3

11、%$3.2519.1%Waha$1.27$1.270.3%$2.2744.2%AECO$0.96$1.7445.0%$1.8046.7%2021ETicker1Y3Y5Y1Y3Y5YAPA4.6x7.4x8.0x4.2x6.9x7.6x$30.00Sell$27.00SellAPC5.3x6.3x6.8x4.0x5.1x5.5x$67.00Neutral$67.00NeutralBRY4.3x4.3x4.3x3.5x3.5x3.5x$1

12、5.00Buy$14.00BuyCDEV5.2x7.6x7.6x4.5x7.7x7.7x$15.00Buy$12.00BuyCHK5.5x6.3x6.6x2.1x2.2x2.7x$2.30Sell$1.60SellCLR5.9x7.6x7.8x4.8x6.1x6.1x$52.00Neutral$45.00NeutralCNQ6.0x7.0x7.0x4.5x5.3x5.3x$59.00Buy$55.00BuyCOG7.5x8.6x9.1x

13、7.2x8.6x9.0x$28.00Neutral$26.00NeutralCOP5.5x6.4x6.2x6.0x6.0x5.8x$72.00Neutral$70.00NeutralCVE6.0x6.8x7.2x4.2x5.6x6.5x$13.00Neutral$12.50NeutralCXO6.9x9.2x9.1x6.3x8.7x8.5x$176.00Buy$161.00BuyDNR5.4x7.0x7.1x2.2x2.4x2.8x$2

14、.20Neutral$1.70NeutralDVN5.9x7.4x7.3x4.3x5.4x5.2x$37.00Buy$34.00BuyECA4.2x5.9x5.7x3.2x5.0x4.8x$12.00Buy$10.00BuyEOG6.9x9.0x8.9x6.5x8.6x8.5x$122.00Buy$118.00BuyFANG5.1x8.1x9.3x4.9x7.8x8.8x$139.00Buy$135.00BuyHES7.7x8.5x7.

15、6x7.0x7.0x6.3x$61.00Neutral$60.00NeutralJAG5.0x5.5x5.5x4.4x5.2x5.2x$13.00Neutral$10.00NeutralMEG7.2x8.9x10.0x3.2x3.7x4.7x$6.00Neutral$5.50NeutralMRO4.7x5.8x5.8x3.9x4.5x4.5x$18.00Neutral$16.00NeutralMUR3.9x4.5x4.5x2.9x3.4

16、x3.4x$34.00Neutral$29.00NeutralNBL5.5x6.6x6.9x3.9x5.1x5.4x$35.00Buy$33.00BuyOAS4.5x5.4x5.7x2.5x3.3x3.4x$6.60Neutral$5.20NeutralOXY6.2x7.7x7.7x6.1x7.9x7.9x$68.00Neutral$58.00NeutralPE5.2x7.6x8.1x4.1x7.0x7.7x$27.00Buy$25.0

17、0BuyPXD6.6x8.9x9.8x6.4x9.1x9.9x$243.00Buy$205.00BuyRRC5.6x7.0x8.5x3.0x5.0x6.6x$16.00Buy$12.00BuySU6.1x7.2x6.9x5.9x6.8x6.7x$55.00Buy$53.00BuySWN4.6x6.0x6.3x2.4x3.1x3.6x$3.80Sell$3.10SellWLL4.1x5.0x5.1x2.5x2.8x2.9x$30.00Ne