2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題(含答案詳解+作文范文)_第1頁
已閱讀1頁,還剩48頁未讀, 繼續(xù)免費(fèi)閱讀

下載本文檔

版權(quán)說明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方,若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán),請進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)

文檔簡介

1、Pleaserefertopage47fimptantdisclosuresanalystcertificationonourwebsiteresearchdisclosures.21June2019SingapeEQUITIESInsideThesisinsixts2Meivevalueatoughersledding3Flexingthescenarios6RatesNIMs:Taperahead8Loansgrowth:Riskt

2、othedownside12Provisions:Manageable16Appendix:ValuationlessfavourableriskrewardWeareincrementallycautiousontheSingapebanksaswefactinlowerUSratessoftermacro.Whilethefundamentalimpactfromthesechangesissettoimpactmostlyfrom

3、2020E(bothinabsolutevs.consensus)wethinkcompanycommentarywilllikelygetmeconservativeoverthecourseof2019E(infactwesensedamecalibratedtoneonourASEANbankstourjustthisweek).Meoverwethinkourmaindownsidecases(threefourcuts)loo

4、kmelikelythanourupsidescenario(nocuts)alsomakingriskrewardlessfavourable.Wecutourestimatespricetargetsacrosstheboard(tableontheleft).Valuationslookfullespeciallypostrecentsharepricestrengthwhichwethinkwasdrivenbyexpectat

5、ionsoftradetensionresolution(whichishardtohicapmacroconditionsweresofteningevenbefethetradetalkswerestalled).WeseevalueinOCBCwhichhaslaggedpeersisabitlessimpactedbytheratechangesinourframewk.UOBisalsorelativelymeinsulate

6、dbutitsrecentsharepricemovemakesriskrewardlessattractive(tonleft)wemoveittoNeutralonvaluationgrounds.DBSismostsensitivetoratechangesinourmodelvaluationlooksfulltous.WekeepitatNeutral.ScenarioscentredontwocutbasecaseOurUS

7、economistDavidDoyleiscallingftworatecutsthroughyearendwhichwefactintoourbasecasefecastsfSGthreemonthLIBHKratesallofwhichresultsinNIMpressure.Weranscenariosaroundthiscasetakingintoaccountotherareaslikeinterestearningasset

8、growthopexprovisions:?Scenario1(maindownsidescenario):Additionalratecutsoftermacro:Highsingledigitpercentageaveragehittoearningsin2020E2021EaswellasourfairvaluesCET1stillwellsupptedthough.?Scenario2:Twoadditionalratecuts

9、pomacro:~22%hittoeachof202021Eaverageearnings~17%toourfairvaluesSilverliningwiseCET1holdsupat13.4%inthewstimpactedcase(DBS).?Scenario3:Upsidecaseassumingnoratecuts:Thisscenariodoeselicithighsingledigitupsidetoourestimate

10、sfairvalueseffectivelyactingasacounterpointtoScenario1above.MecompellingopptunitieselsewhereThebanks’CET1ratiosremainhealthyinourbasedownsidecasescanthussuppttheprogressiveDPSwearefecasting.Assuchthebanksstilloffersolidy

11、ieldsuppt.ButmeattractivelyvaluedcombinationsofyieldfundamentalscanbefoundinSingapePropertydevelopersedIndustrialswethink.MacquarieResearchSingapeBanks21June20193MeivevalueatoughersleddingBakinginMacquarie’slatestexpecta

12、tionsftwoUSratecutsin2H19…OurUSeconomistDavidDoyleisnowcallingftworatecutsthroughyearend(basecase:SepOct)webakethispathintoourbasecasefecastsfSingapethreemonthinterestrates.WealsomakeconfmingadjustmentstoourLIBshttermHKr

13、ateassumptions(our‘masterflex’framewkisoutlinedinthenextsection).Giventhetimingofthecutsvariousrepricinglagsthemainimpactonourestimatesfromtheratecutsisseenfrom2020E.…Aswellasamemixedmacrooutlook…Weflagtheslowingmomentum

14、signalledbyRicDeverellteam’sMacquarieChinaBusinessCycleIndicatwhichdoesnotyetreflectthefullimpactofincreasedUSChinatariffs.ClosertohomeASEANasawholehasbeenreptingslowereconomicgrowthledbySingape.Theregion’sdlemanposition

15、ingaUSChinatradetensionsfurtherraisesdownsideriskswethink:WhilethereismuchdiscussionofsupplychainsrelocatingtoASEANfromNthAsiawethinkthenegativeimpactofprolongedelevatedtariffswillbefeltfirst.Thisviewwasreinfcedpostourre

16、centASEANbankstour.whilethereisroomfpolicyresponseinmostASEANcountrieswethinkrisksareincreasinglytiltedtothedownsideonloansgrowthprovisions.…WerevisedownourestimatesrefreshourmainscenariosInadditiontoourcompanyspecifices

17、timatechangessummarizedonthecoverinFig13wehaverefreshedourtopdownmodelwhichhelpsgaugetheimpactofchanginginterestratesoninterestmargins(NIMs)servestocalibrateourbottomupfecasts.Wewouldn’treadtoomuchintothefecastchangesbet

18、weenthethreebanksasthereisanelementof‘resetting’atplayaswealsofmallytransfercoveragetoConradWernerWeiMingAnginthisrept.MeimptantlywenowpencilincontractingNIMsinourbasecase.AsmentionedgiventhetimingofourexpectedUSratecuts

19、mostoftheimpactisfrom2020E(Fig2)buttheeffectsarelikelytobediscountedinsharesearlierwethink.while2Q19resultsarelikelytostillcomeinsolid(NIMexpansion)wesensedamecalibratedtoneontherecentbankstour.NIMcontractionpresentsahea

20、dwindfinterestincome(NII)growththatwilllikelyprovedifficulttooffsetwithhigherloansgrowthathelessrobustmacrooutlook.Ourbasecaseassumessingleloansgrowthfthesectin2019E(inlinewithmostbanks’guidance)whichisstillsupptedbysome

21、legacypipelinebutcarriessomedownsideriskwethink.Thisisfollowedbyataperingfrom2020Easoutlinedinalatersection.FurtherdownthePmacrorisksstilltothedownsideASEANbankstourfeedback:SupplychainsnotyetmovingtoSEAsiainameaningfulw

溫馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
  • 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網(wǎng)頁內(nèi)容里面會(huì)有圖紙預(yù)覽,若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
  • 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
  • 5. 眾賞文庫僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)空間,僅對用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理,對用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
  • 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容,請與我們聯(lián)系,我們立即糾正。
  • 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。

評論

0/150

提交評論