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1、Pleaserefertopage35fimptantdisclosuresanalystcertificationonourwebsiteresearchdisclosures.21June2019AustraliaEQUITIESTheUSeconomywasstartingtoturnupbefetheincreaseintariffsinMay2019ButtheFedlookssettocutratestooffsethead

2、windsfromtheincreaseintariffsUSstocksrose10%intheyearafterthefirstcutexceptwhenrecessionfollowedSince1996ASXIndustrialsrose9%intheyearafterthefirstratecutbytheRBASource:FactSetMacquarieResearchJune2019AnalystsMacquarieSe

3、curities(Australia)LimitedMatthewBrooksCFA61282321982matthew.brooks@AustraliaEquityStrategyFollowingtheFed(theRBA)Keypoints?WiththeFedsettocutwelookatpastreturnsinneweasingcycles.?TheS&Prose10%intheyearafterthefirstcut(e

4、xceptinrecessions).?Since1996ASXIndustrialsrose~9%intheyearafterthefirstRBAcut.KeytakeawaysfromtheimpactofthefirstFedratecut1.IftheFedhikesisthisabearishsignalfstocksNo.In8of11easingcyclessince1971USstockswere10%higheray

5、earafterthefirstcut.Theexceptionswere198120012007whichwererecessions.Making‘insurancecuts’shouldreducetheriskofarecessionsupptstocks.2.WhichUSsectsoutperfmafterratecutsIfyoulookatsimilarcycleswheretheFedcutaftera“downtur

6、nphase”buttherewasnorecessioninthenextyeartheaveragereturnfUSstockswas18%ledbyPharma&BiotechTelecomSoftwareRetailCoal.ThelaggardswereGoldRealEstateConsumerServicesIndustrialMetalMiningChemicals.3.HowdoAustralianstocksfar

7、einanewFedeasingcycleLookingatsimilarperiodstheAlldsroseby12%intheyearafterthefirstFedcut.HavingtheRBAcuttingtooprovidesaddedsupptfAustralianstocks.4.HowdobondmarketsreacttothefirstratecutIn7of11easingcyclesthe10yearyiel

8、dwashigherayearlater.Cuttingshtrateshelpedsteepentheyieldcurvein10of11cycles.Thekeyexceptionwastheflatteningyieldcurveafterthe1987crashbutUSstocksrose24%despitethisflattening.5.AreratecutspositivefgoldTheaverageriseingol

9、dintheyearafterthefirstcutiszerowithpositivereturnsin5of11cases.Since1971USgoldstockshavethesecondlowestreturn(onlysteeliswse)plusthelowestoddsofapositivereturnintheyearafterthefirstFedcut.Goldstocksmayperfmfotherreasons

10、butthefirstFedcutisnotacatalyst.6.WhatifarecessionisnearIfyoulookatthe3recessionsintheyearafterthefirstFedcuttheS&P500Alldsfellbyanaverageof19%.ThebestsectswereFood&BeveragePaper&PackagingRetail.ThewstwereSteelDiversifie

11、dFinancialsTechnologyHardware.RBAratecutinJuneshouldsupptreturnsfIndustrialsIfyouexcludeResourceswhicharedrivenbytheglobalcyclesince1996thereturnfIndustrialsintheyearafterthefirstRBAcutis9%.LookingonlyatASX100stocksliste

12、dsincethe1990sthetopperfmersintheyearafterthefirstRBAratecutwereJHXCSLABCANZWOW.ThelaggardsintheyearafterthefirstRBAratecutwereAWCSTOQBETAHWPL.GlobalcyclestillakeyreturndriverinmarketswithnegativeratesAfterastudyofmarket

13、swithnegativepolicyrates(i.e.DenmarkEurozoneSwitzerlSwedenJapan)wenotetheoveralldividendyielddidnotcompress.SincetheECBadoptednegativepolicyratesHealthEquipment&SuppliesSoftware&Serviceshavebeentwoofthebestperfmerswithre

14、turnssupptedbyyieldcompression.EuroAreabankshavebeenpoperfmerssincethemovetonegativeratesbutwethinkthisatleastpartlyreflectstherecentdownturnphaseinthecycle(notjusttheimpactofNIRP).MacquarieResearchAustraliaEquityStrateg

15、y21June20193UShousingshouldbesupptedbythefallinbondyields?TheOECD’snmalisedhousingstartsindicathasbeenanegativecontributtothecompositeleadingindicatsinceMarch2018.Thelatestdatapoint(perFactSet)isfApril2019wherethedecline

16、was2.5%YoY.Thisincreasedtoafallof4.7%inMay2019butwethinkthedeclinewasduetothetoughcompasMay2018wasupover18%.?ThedeclineinlongbondyieldsthatwriesequityinvestsisapositivefUShousingasthisreduced30yearmtgageratestobelow4%.Th

17、epeakwascloserto5%in2018itwasdriventherebyFedratehikestheplannedreductionintheirbalancesheet.?ItisimptanttorealisethatthebearmarketinUSstocksinlate2018wasduepartlytoweaknessinthehousingmarket(mostlyduetohigherrates)trade

18、issues.BothwereUSgrowthheadwinds.In2019weseeUShousingbeingapotentialoffsettotradeheadwinds.?TheincreaseintheNAHBHousingMarketIndexfromalowof56inDecember2018to66inMayisanotherpositiveindicat.TheNAHBisalsoup4ptssinceMarch2

19、019.Fig2UShousinghadbeenadragonUSgrowthfromMarch2018Fig3ButtherehasbeenatroughinhousingstartsinMarch2019signallingarecoveryinUShousingSource:FactSetMacquarieResearchJune2019Source:FactSetMacquarieResearchJune2019Fig4Asid

20、efromtheinJunetheNAHBhasbeenrisingsinceDecember2018whichisapositivesignalFig5LowerbondyieldshavealsoledtolowermtgagerateswhichshouldbeanotherpositivefUShousingSource:FactSetMacquarieResearchJune2019Source:FactSetMacquari

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