中國石油消費總量控制的健康效應(yīng)分析

1、目錄ExecutiveSummary5專業(yè)術(shù)語表7前言81.石油相關(guān)污染對人群健康的危害91.1石油相關(guān)大氣污染的健康危害1.2石油相關(guān)水污染的健康危害1.3塑料污染的健康危害2.石油相關(guān)大氣污染的健康成本核算182.1核算方法2.2量化分析2.3不確定性分析3.結(jié)論及展望323.1主要結(jié)論3.2政策建議3.3展望參考文獻36weevaluatedthe2015healthcostsofpetroleumrelatedairpollut

2、ionin31provinces74cities.ResultsTheliteraturereviewshowedthatpetroleumextractionrefiningmanufactureconsumptioncouldleadtoseriousairpollutionwaterpollutionplasticpollutionendangeringtherespiratycardiovularendocrinenervous

3、systemsoftheexposedpopulation.Inadditionsomecarcinogenicpollutantscouldsignificantlyincreasetheriskofcancer.Ourresultsshowedthatin2015thenumberofexcessdeathsduetopetroleumrelatedairpollutionin31provinceswas195thoustherel

4、atedeconomiclosseswere150.68(95%CI:98.31229.19)billionyuan.Thehealthcostsperunitofpetroleumconsumptionwas278.6yuanton.In74representativecitiesthehealthcostsofpetroleumrelatedairpollutionwere88.89(95%CI:57.97135.16)billio

5、nyuantheeconomiclossesofBeijingTianjinHebeiRegionYangtzeRiverDeltaRegionPearlRiverDeltasRegionaccountedf64.6%ofthetotaleconomiclossesin74cities.Uncertainanalysis1.AtpresentthereisnostardvaluefVSLinChina.Whencalculatingth

6、ehealthcostsofpetroleumrelatedconsumptiondifferentparameterscancausetheresultsofthestudytodiffersignificantly.2.Fthelimitedconditionsofdatatheairpollutiondatainourstudywasbasedonthenationalenvironmentalmonitingsitesdidno

7、tutilizeindividualexposureassessment.3.Duetothelimitationofdataconditionsourstudyfailedtoquantitativelyevaluatethehealthcostofpetroleumrelatedwaterplasticpollutionunderestimatedtherealhealthcostsofpetroleum.ConclusionPol

8、lutantsdisgedfrompetroleumextractionrefiningconsumptionprocesseshavesignificanthealthimpactsontheexposedpopulationcreatingaheavyburdenofhealthproblemseconomiclosses.Therelevantgovernmentdepartmentsshouldfmulatepoliciesto