財務(wù)管理e

1、Financial Statements Analysis and Long-Term Planning,Key Concepts and Skills,Know how to compute and interpret important financial ratiosBe able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approachUnderst

2、and how capital structure and dividend policies affect a firm’s ability to grow,Chapter Outline,3.1 Financial Statements Analysis3.2 Using Financial Statement Information3.3 Long-Term Financial Planning3.4 External Fi

3、nancing and Growth3.5 Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models,一、財務(wù)報告及其結(jié)構(gòu)回顧主要財務(wù)報表：資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、損益表、現(xiàn)金流量表。資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表：某一特定時點(diǎn)上的財務(wù)狀況表現(xiàn)財務(wù)狀況的基本恒等式 資產(chǎn) = 負(fù)債 + 所有者權(quán)益期初：100萬 ＝ 40萬 + 60萬

4、期末：102萬 ＝ 40萬 + 62萬,利潤表：反映某一特定時期內(nèi)的經(jīng)營成果表現(xiàn)財務(wù)成果的等式： 收入 — 費(fèi)用 = 利潤 12萬 － 10萬 ＝ 2萬 原則：權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制,現(xiàn)金流量表： 表現(xiàn)財務(wù)狀況變動的等式： 流動資產(chǎn) - 流動負(fù)債 = 長期負(fù)債+所有者權(quán)益 - 長

5、期性資產(chǎn) (除：短期投資) （除：流動負(fù)債）,原則：收付實現(xiàn)制現(xiàn)金流量表：反映某一特定時期內(nèi)現(xiàn)金變動原因,附表： 對主表內(nèi)容某方面所進(jìn)行的有針對性的說明 如：利潤分配表、其他業(yè)務(wù)收支明細(xì)表。注釋： 是對財務(wù)報表本身某些無法或難以表達(dá)的內(nèi)容所作的補(bǔ)充說明和詳解。財務(wù)狀況說明書： 是對財務(wù)報表進(jìn)行的說明、分析、評價及對未來作出估計、判斷、預(yù)測,二、會計報表的局限計量屬性的問題

6、：歷史成本與公允價值程序選擇的問題：可比性內(nèi)容分類方面的問題：利潤表有關(guān)創(chuàng)新性業(yè)務(wù)的會計處理（抽逃資金）有關(guān)信息范圍：會計信息與財務(wù)信息（財務(wù)中的現(xiàn)金流量：機(jī)會成本，非收付實現(xiàn)制）,3.1 Financial Statements Analysis,Common-Size Balance SheetsCompute all accounts as a percent of total assetsCommon-Size In

7、come StatementsCompute all line items as a percent of salesas the company grows，companies of different sizes,3.2 Ratio Analysis,Ratios also allow for better comparison through time or between companies.As we look at

8、each ratio, ask yourself:How is the ratio computed?What is the ratio trying to measure and why?What is the unit of measurement?What does the value indicate?How can we improve the company’s ratio?,Categories of Finan

9、cial Ratios,Short-term solvency or liquidity ratiosLong-term solvency, or financial leverage ratiosAsset management or turnover ratiosProfitability ratiosMarket value ratios,Computing Liquidity Ratios,Current Ratio =

10、 CA / CLQuick Ratio = (CA – Inventory) / CL保守速動比率=現(xiàn)金+短期證券+應(yīng)收票據(jù)+應(yīng)收賬款(即可以變成現(xiàn)金的資產(chǎn))Cash Ratio = Cash / CLNWC to Total Assets = NWC / TAInterval Measure間隔期間 = CA / average daily operating costs,短期償債能力指標(biāo)的問題,不良資產(chǎn)：逾期應(yīng)收賬

11、款，長期積壓的商品物資。歷史成本計價負(fù)債的屬性：預(yù)收賬款或有負(fù)債：對外擔(dān)保，未決訴訟，剩余貸款額度？,短期償債能力指標(biāo)的修正,流動資產(chǎn)中應(yīng)扣除：（1）一年或一個經(jīng)營周期以上未收回的應(yīng)收賬款、積壓的存貨；（2）待攤費(fèi)用；（3）用于購買或投資長期資產(chǎn)的預(yù)付賬款。流動資產(chǎn)中應(yīng)加入：（1）流動資產(chǎn)損失中可能獲得的賠償或補(bǔ)償；（2）存貨、有價證券變現(xiàn)價值超過賬面價值部分。（3）可用的貸款額度。流動負(fù)債應(yīng)考慮加入：或有負(fù)債如對外擔(dān)保、

12、未決訴訟等可能帶來的流動負(fù)債。流動負(fù)債應(yīng)扣除：預(yù)收賬款,Computing Leverage Ratios,負(fù)債比率，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE) / TA(3588 - 2591) / 3588 = 28%負(fù)債權(quán)益比Debt/Equity = TD / TE(3588 – 2591) / 2591 = 38.5%D/E = D/A / (1 – D/A) = .28 / .72 = .

13、39權(quán)益乘數(shù)Equity Multiplier = TA / TE = 1 + D/E=1/(1-D/A)1 + .385 = 1.385,Computing Coverage Ratios,Times Interest Earned = EBIT / Interest691 / 141 = 4.9 times已獲息倍數(shù)，利息保障倍數(shù)負(fù)債能力 違約可能性利息：包括利潤表中的財務(wù)費(fèi)用和資本化的利息與財務(wù)杠桿的關(guān)系DFL

14、=EBIT/(EBIT+I)=1/(1+1/已獲息倍數(shù))現(xiàn)金對利息的保障倍數(shù)Cash Coverage = (EBIT + Depreciation) / Interest (EBITD)EBITDA,Computing Inventory Ratios,Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold / Inventory1344 / 422 = 3.2 timesDays’ Sales in

15、 Inventory = 365 / Inventory Turnover365 / 3.2 = 114 days期末存貨or平均存貨不同行業(yè)對存貨的計價,Computing Receivables Ratios,Receivables Turnover = Sales / Accounts Receivable2311 / 188 = 12.3 timesDays’ Sales in Receivables = 365 /

16、Receivables Turnover365 / 12.3 = 30 days假設(shè)：賒銷季節(jié)性銷售問題,另一種方法？,Computing Total Asset Turnover,Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Total Assets2311 / 3588 = .64 timesIt is not unusual for TAT < 1, especially if a firm has

17、 a large amount of fixed assets.Fixed assets are expensive and are meant to provide sales over a long period of time.Consider：a firm is utilizing old (and perhaps inefficient) equipment, while others in the industry ha

18、ve invested in modern equipment 周轉(zhuǎn)率高低的評價,Profitability Measures,Profit Margin = Net Income / Sales363 / 2311 = 15.7%Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income / Total Assets363 / 3588 = 10.1%Return on Equity (ROE) = Net In

19、come / Total Equity363 / 2591 = 14.0%ROE will always be higher than ROA as long as the firm has debt (and ROA is positive). The greater the leverage, the larger the difference will be.,ROE is often used as a measure of

20、 how well management is attaining the goal of owner wealth maximization.ROA and ROE are returns on accounting numbers. Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA)EVA ＝稅后凈營業(yè)利潤－資本成本（機(jī)會成本）＝稅后凈營業(yè)利潤－資本占用 ×

21、 加權(quán)平均資本成本率,Computing Market Value Measures,Market Price = $88 per shareShares outstanding = 33 millionPE Ratio = Price per share / Earnings per share 88 / 11 = 8 times市盈率反映股票投資者對每一元的利潤所愿意支付的代價。通常用來作為比較不同價格

22、的股票是否被高估或者低估的指標(biāo)。,一般而言，市盈率越低，表示公司股票的投資價值越高；反之，該股票的價格具有泡沫，價值被高估，投資價值越低。Another opinion, 市盈率越高=》公司未來成長的潛力越大=》投資者對該股票的評價越高；當(dāng)一家公司增長迅速以及未來的業(yè)績增長非?？春脮r，股票目前的高市盈率可能恰好準(zhǔn)確地估量了該公司的價值。反之，投資者對該股票評價越低。,如果某股票有較高市盈率，代表：　　(1)市場預(yù)測未來的盈利增長速

23、度快。　　(2)該企業(yè)一向都有可觀盈利，但在前一個年度偶然降低了盈利?！　?3)出現(xiàn)泡沫，該股被追捧。　　(4)該企業(yè)有特殊的優(yōu)勢，保證能在低風(fēng)險情況下持久取得盈利?！　?5)市場上可選擇的股票有限，在供求定律下，股價將上升。這令跨時間的市盈率比較變得意義不大。,A table of year-end P-E ratios for the S&P 500,The average P-E over the 16-year

24、is 23.77.,,一般來說，市盈率水平為：　　 0-13：即價值被低估　　14-20：即正常水平　　21-28：即價值被高估　　 28+：反映股市出現(xiàn)投機(jī)性泡沫但在我國，sb：30-50,滬深股市歷史上有4個市盈率高峰：66倍以上：1993.2、1993.5, 2001.6，2007.10.54到55倍: 1996.12，1997.5，2000.8.42到44倍: 1998-1999，滬深股市曾分別在42和44

25、倍的市盈率遇阻回落。34倍: 1994.9，1995.5的高點(diǎn)，兩市的平均市盈率就在32到34倍之間。09年，A股地產(chǎn)上市公司平均市盈率已達(dá)50倍以上09年，以今年一季度市盈率計算：滬市A股27.53倍，深市A股56.39倍，兩市加權(quán)平均市盈率約36倍。按照這一水平計算，當(dāng)上證指數(shù)到達(dá)3478點(diǎn)時，兩市的平均市盈率為41倍。,中國股票市場的平均市盈率還應(yīng)考慮發(fā)行價因素。1997年以前，參照當(dāng)時中國的利率水平，管理層對IPO定價控制

26、得比較嚴(yán)，一般IPO市盈率不得超過15倍。后來為了推進(jìn)證券市場的市場化改革，對發(fā)行定價的控制漸漸放松了，閩東電力2000年發(fā)行時達(dá)到了88倍的市盈率，一般股票的平均發(fā)行市盈率也維持在40、50的水平。從理論上說，發(fā)行市盈率越高，籌集的資金越多，上市公司潛在的發(fā)展、盈利能力就越強(qiáng)，上市公司賬面資產(chǎn)的含金量也就越高。但也意味著風(fēng)險越高！,利率與市盈率之間的關(guān)系：市盈率=1／1年期銀行存款利率目前美元的年利率保持在4.75％左右，所以，

27、美國股市的市盈率保持在1/（4.75％）=21倍的市盈率左右目前我國人民幣的一年期存款利率是2.79％，考慮利息稅的實際的存款利率大約為2.23％，市盈率是1/（2.23％）=44.8倍,以市盈率的高低來評價股票的投資價值時，應(yīng)注意以下三個因素：（1）由于不同國家之間市場利率上可能存在的差異性，不能以簡單的橫向引用，來框定我國股市理性的市盈率區(qū)域。（2）市盈率是一個靜態(tài)指標(biāo)，不要過分看重市盈率指標(biāo)對投資價值評估的作用。（3）市盈

28、率指標(biāo)還必須與股票的風(fēng)險水平相結(jié)合，才能做出合理的投資價值評判。,EPS= 本年凈利潤 期末普通股股數(shù)期末普通股股數(shù)：攤薄，發(fā)行在外的，非全部權(quán)益價值M/B：市凈率 Market-to-book ratio = market value per share / book value per share88 / (2591 / 33) = 1.12 times,,小 結(jié),短期償債能力或流動性比率

29、長期償債能力或財務(wù)杠桿比率資產(chǎn)運(yùn)用或周轉(zhuǎn)率比率盈利性比率市場價值比率,3.3 The Du Pont Identity,ROE = PM * TAT * EMProfit margin is a measure of the firm’s operating efficiency – how well it controls costs.Total asset turnover is a measure of the firm

30、’s asset use efficiency – how well it manages its assets.Equity multiplier is a measure of the firm’s financial leverage.,Calculating the Du Pont Identity,ROA = 10.1% and EM = 1.39ROE = 10.1% * 1.385 = 14.0%PM = 15.7%

31、 and TAT = 0.64ROE = 15.7% * 0.64 * 1.385 = 14.0%擴(kuò)展的杜邦分析體系每股股利=股利支付率×每股盈余 =股利支付率×每股凈資產(chǎn)×權(quán)益報酬率,雷達(dá)圖。在二維空間中構(gòu)造一個有固定半徑的圓，從圓心引出p條等距的射線（亦可按一定比例），這些射線的長度代表變量的數(shù)值，以直線連接射線的端點(diǎn)即形成一個星形。臉譜圖。即用臉的特征（如臉的形狀，嘴的彎曲率等）

32、來表示相關(guān)的指標(biāo)變量。沃爾評分法：將選定的財務(wù)比率用線性關(guān)系結(jié)合起來，并分別給定各自的分?jǐn)?shù)比重，然后通過與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)比率進(jìn)行比較，確定各項指標(biāo)的得分及總體指標(biāo)的累計分?jǐn)?shù)，從而對企業(yè)的信用水平作出評價。,3.4 Using Financial Statements,Ratios are not very helpful by themselves: they need to be compared to somethingTime-Tren

33、d AnalysisUsed to see how the firm’s performance is changing through timePeer Group AnalysisCompare to similar companies or within industriesSIC and NAICS codes,Potential Problems,There is no underlying theory, so th

34、ere’s no way to know which ratios are most relevant.Benchmarking is difficult for diversified firms.Globalization and international competition makes comparison more difficult because of differences in accounting regul

35、ations.Firms use varying accounting procedures.Firms have different fiscal years.Extraordinary, or one-time, events,3.5 Long-Term Financial Planning,Investment in new assets – determined by capital budgeting decisions

36、Degree of financial leverage – determined by capital structure decisionsCash paid to shareholders – determined by dividend policy decisionsLiquidity requirements – determined by net working capital decisions,Financial

37、 Planning Ingredients,Sales Forecast – many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimate sales growth rate)Pro Forma Statements – setting up the plan as projected (pro forma形式上的) financial statements

38、 allows for consistency and ease of interpretationAsset Requirements – the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections,Financial Requirements – the amount of financing needed to pay for the require

39、d assetsPlug Variable – determined by management decisions about what type of financing will be used (makes the balance sheet balance)Economic Assumptions – explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment,Pe

40、rcent of Sales Approach,Some items vary directly with sales, others do not.Income StatementCosts may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the profit margin is constantDepreciation and interest expense

41、may not vary directly with sales – if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constantDividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales – this affects additions to retained earnin

42、gs,Percent of Sales Approach,Balance Sheet p49Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales.Accounts payable also normally vary directly with sales.Notes payable, long-term debt, and equity g

43、enerally do not vary with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure.The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision.,Percent of Sales and EFN,Ex

44、ternal Financing Needed (EFN)The difference between the forecasted increase in assets and the forecasted increase in liabilities and equity. External Financing Needed (EFN) can also be calculated as:,3.6 External Finan

45、cing and Growth,At low growth levels, internal financing (retained earnings) may exceed the required investment in assets.As the growth rate increases, the internal financing will not be enough, and the firm will have t

46、o go to the capital markets for financing.Examining the relationship between growth and external financing :,資產(chǎn)需求額Vs留存收益增加額（p53圖）EFN：plug負(fù)債融資；權(quán)益融資沒有任何外部融資：內(nèi)部增長率沒有外部股權(quán)融資，且保持負(fù)債權(quán)益比（資本結(jié)構(gòu)）不變：可持續(xù)增長率P51-53：3.6,The Intern

47、al Growth Rate,The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow assets using retained earnings as the only source of financing.Using the information from the Hoffman Co.ROA = 66 / 500 = .132b = 44/ 66 = .

48、66700,The Sustainable Growth Rate,The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow by using internally generated funds and issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio.Using the Hoffman Co.ROE = 66 / 2

49、50 = .264b = .667ROE based on ending, rather than beginning equity,條件：資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率；銷售凈利率不變 資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率；股利支付率不變 不增發(fā)新股 因此：銷售的實際增長率＝可持續(xù)增長率 ＝資產(chǎn)增長率＝負(fù)債增長率＝股東權(quán)益增長率＝凈利增長率＝股利增長率＝留存收益增加額的增長率＝實體現(xiàn)金流量的增長率＝股權(quán)現(xiàn)金流量的增長率,可持續(xù)增長率=權(quán)益凈利率*收益留存率/（

50、1-權(quán)益凈利率*收益留存率）=股東權(quán)益增長率 =股東權(quán)益增加額/期初股東權(quán)益 =本年留存收益/（期末權(quán)益-本年留存收益）=期初權(quán)益凈利率×本期收益留存率可持續(xù)增長率=銷售凈利率×總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率×收益留存率×期初權(quán)益期末總資產(chǎn)乘數(shù)注意：目前的資本結(jié)構(gòu)與增資的綜合資本成本,Determinants of Growth,Profit margin – operating efficiency

51、Total asset turnover – asset use efficiencyFinancial leverage – choice of optimal debt ratioDividend policy – choice of how much to pay to shareholders versus reinvesting in the firm每股股利指標(biāo)slide35,3.7 Some Caveats,Fina

52、ncial planning models do not indicate which financial polices are the best.Models are simplifications of reality, and the world can change in unexpected ways.Without some sort of plan, the firm may find itself adrift i

53、n a sea of change without a rudder for guidance.,銷售百分比法的若干假設(shè),1、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的敏感項目在短時期內(nèi)隨銷售的變動而成比例變動，其隱含的前提是：現(xiàn)有的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債水平對現(xiàn)在的銷售是最優(yōu)的，即所有的生產(chǎn)能力已經(jīng)全部使用。2、敏感項目與銷售額之間成正比例關(guān)系。這一假設(shè)又包含兩方面意義：一是線性假設(shè)，即敏感項目與銷售額之間為正相關(guān)；二是直線過原點(diǎn)，即銷售額為零時，項目的初始值也為零。,3、基

54、期與預(yù)測期情況基本不變。這一假設(shè)包含三重含義：一是基期與預(yù)測期的敏感項目和非敏感項目的劃分不變；二是敏感項目與銷售額之間成固定比例，或稱比例不變；三是銷售結(jié)構(gòu)和價格水平與基期相比基本不變。 4、企業(yè)的內(nèi)部資金來源僅包括留用利潤，即當(dāng)期計提的折舊全部用來更新固定資產(chǎn)。 5、銷售的預(yù)測比較準(zhǔn)確。,Quick Quiz,How do you compute and revise the ratios within each categor

55、y?What are some of the problems of financial statement analysis?What is the percentage of sales approach? How to compute EFN?What is the internal growth rate?What is the sustainable growth rate? What are the problems