昌江洪水預報模型研究.pdf

1、南昌大學碩士學位論文昌江洪水預報模型研究姓名：張強申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：水利水電工程指導教師：傅春20081220abstractAbstractAsonetributaryofraoriverthechangriverflowsthroughtheJingdezhencityEachyeartheeconomiclossescausedbythefloodsinJingdezhenisveryseriousanditimpactso

2、nlocaleconomicdevelopmentextremelyWiththesocialdevelopmentandwealthaccumulation，theeconomiclossescausedbythefloodswillbegrowyearbyyaerTherefore，wemuststrengthenthesystemoffloodforecastingofthechangriverenhancefloodcontro

3、lfacilities，andmaximizetheeconomiclossescausedbytheflooddisastersThechangriverislocatedinsubhumidareasinsouthofchina，belongingtothemountainrivers，andthefloodssteepupsanddownswhichisacertaindifficultiestoforecastTheforeca

4、stingmethodofthewatershedhydrologicalforecastingondufengkengstationisforecastingexperience(experiencerelatedtainfallrunoff)Ifthefloodsareinarowfortheprocess，itisoftendifficulttoforecasttheoutcomeoftheproductiontomeetthen

5、eedsofpracticeItisthereforenecessaryfortheChangrivertOhigherforecastaccuracyoffloodforecastingmodeltobettercarryoutthefloodwarningfloodcontrolandrescueforthewinningtimeInthispaperchoosethedufcngkengstationasacontrolstati

6、onandstudyitsfloodforecastingmodeltheresearchmethodsandtheconclusionsareasfollows：(1)，utilizeXin’anjiang(threewaters)model，theSacramentomodelandtheexperiencemodelrelatedtainfallrunofftOsimulatethefloodforecastingoftheCha

7、ngriveranalysethesimulationresultsandconcludethat：Xin’anjiang(threewaters)andtheSacramentoModelcanreachhi曲precision，andXin’anjiangmodelisbetterthanSacramento，buttheexperiencerelatedtainfallrunoffmodelisofarelativelylowac

8、curacy(2)，ImprovetheevapotranspirationmoduleoftheXin’anjiangmodel，andestablishthefloodforecastingmodeloftheChangfiverThefloodsimulationresultsshowthat：Thenewmodelofthechangriverhaveagoodsimulationinthefloodforecastingoft