2013年--外文翻譯--減少旅游驅(qū)動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響研究偏見(jiàn)的方法（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文1500字，800單詞，4500英文字符</p><p>　　Atl Econ J (2013) 41:451–452</p><p>　　DOI 10.1007/s11293-013-9382-2</p><p>　　A N T H O L O G Y</p><p>　　Methodology to Reduce

2、 Bias in Tourism-Driven Economic Impact Studies</p><p>　　L. Taylor Damonte & John G. Marcis &</p><p>　　Thomas Rella</p><p>　　Published online: 5 October 2013</p><

3、p>　　# International Atlantic Economic Society 2013</p><p><b>　　JEL O10</b></p><p>　　Economic impact studies provide estimates of direct, indirect, and induced expenditures resulti

4、ng from an event in a community. Examples of specific activities are as diverse as the construction of a new stadium, the presence of a university in an area, or a specific cultural festival. When examining the economic

5、impact of a specific cultural festival that serves as a vehicle for tourism, it is tempting to assume that all spending by festival attendees is new spending to the community.</p><p>　　However, assuming that

6、 all direct spending by festival attendees at a tourism-related event is new, direct tourist spending introduces bias into the estimation of the economic impact; that is, some of the spending would occur even if the spec

7、ific event did not occur. The initial bias is then compounded when researchers introduce induced and indirect economic impacts based on the inflated estimate of new direct impacts. A more accurate estimate of new direct

8、tourist spending is one that would be </p><p>　　Travel spending has a prominent position in the family consumption structure. In the tourism market has been covered by the seller market to buyer's market

9、, tourism consumption has full freedom of choice. The restriction of the utility maximization into spending minimization principle, the tourism consumption choice must have a certain directivity, namely the tourists of d

10、ifferent tourist destination time combination will be the best choice. When it comes to tourism consumption, the vast majorit</p><p>　　Consequently, festival organizers should make it a goal to increase the

11、number of new tourists to the event each year. The purpose of this note is to summarize a methodology that allows a more accurate estimate of new tourist spending at a festival.</p><p>　　Following Crompton (

12、Journal of Sport Management, 1995), Tyrrell and Johnson (Journal of Travel Research, 2001), and Hodur and Leistritz (Journal of Convention</p><p>　　& Event Tourism, 2006), this study partitions festival

13、attendees into one of the following three categories:</p><p>　　Casual: those tourists who attended an event but for whom the event was not an important reason for their choice of travel to the area;</p>

14、;<p>　　Time Switcher: those tourists who indicated the event was a relatively important part of their decision to travel to the area but who traveled to the area one or more times per year regardless; and</p>

15、;<p>　　New: those tourists who do not historically travel to the area at least once per year and for whom the event was a relatively important reason for their choice of visit.</p><p>　　“Coastal Uncor

16、ked” is a spring festival produced by a nonprofit organization with Internal Revenue Service 501-C4 status that spotlights wines and cuisine in the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina. A survey instrument was prepared an

17、d administered to a random sample of 216 festival attendees at the May 2011 event. From the survey instrument it was determined that 30 respondents were Casual tourists, 26 were Switcher tourists, and 39 were New tourist

18、s, with the remaining respondents being local </p><p>　　Direct spending by New tourists increased by $746,617, or 295 %, from 2010 to 2011. Utilizing MIG’s IMPLAN (2005) multipliers, indirect and induced spe

19、nding resulting only from direct spending by New tourists in 2011 was estimated at $174,973 and $254,063, respectively. This is up from indirect spending of $44,305 and induced spending of $64,301 in 2010. The increase i

20、n direct spending by New tourist parties was a function of two factors: a 41 % increase in spending per party and a 180 % increas</p><p>　　This is not to say that the spending of so-called Time Switchers or

21、Casual attendees is of little value. By definition, revenue generated by Switchers, which accounted for 40.6 % of the direct spending of all tourists attending the 2011 event was revenue that could have potentially been

22、created during a higher demand period. However, as a result of this shift in travel dates, additional capacity would, in theory, be available in the market during the higher demand dates, allowing additional and </p&g

23、t;<p>　　This study demonstrates a differential effect for the three categories. Failure to distinguish between the three categories may lead to an over-estimation of the economic impact of new tourist spending at

24、a festival event.</p><p>　　減少旅游驅(qū)動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響研究偏見(jiàn)的方法</p><p>　　L.泰勒達(dá)蒙特，約翰G 馬庫(kù)斯 &托馬斯·雷拉</p><p>　　在線(xiàn)出版: 2013年5月</p><p>　　國(guó)際大西洋經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會(huì) 2013年</p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)影響研究表明在社會(huì)

25、中人們對(duì)事件進(jìn)行直接、間接和誘導(dǎo)性支出結(jié)果的預(yù)測(cè)。具體活動(dòng)的例子不勝枚舉，如新體育館的建設(shè)、某地區(qū)大學(xué)的修繕或某個(gè)特定文化節(jié)的展現(xiàn)。檢測(cè)在特定文化節(jié)作為傳遞功能中的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響時(shí)，人們往往認(rèn)為與會(huì)者的所有費(fèi)用是社會(huì)新產(chǎn)生的支出。</p><p>　　但是人們認(rèn)為參會(huì)者在旅游相關(guān)活動(dòng)中的所有直接花費(fèi)是一種新產(chǎn)生的直接性旅游開(kāi)銷(xiāo)，這種想法對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的評(píng)估產(chǎn)生了偏見(jiàn)；也就是說(shuō)，即使某些特定活動(dòng)沒(méi)有發(fā)生，但是一些支出也會(huì)產(chǎn)生

26、。當(dāng)研究者基于對(duì)新的直接結(jié)果有過(guò)高的評(píng)估，產(chǎn)生誘導(dǎo)性間接性經(jīng)濟(jì)影響時(shí)，這種最原始的偏見(jiàn)就混合而成了。對(duì)新產(chǎn)生的直接性旅游支出的更準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估是僅僅基于游客到某個(gè)地區(qū)的開(kāi)支，其費(fèi)用根據(jù)活動(dòng)的發(fā)生而產(chǎn)生。旅游支出在家庭消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中占有突出地位．在旅游市場(chǎng)已由賣(mài)方市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向買(mǎi)方市場(chǎng)之際，旅游消費(fèi)就有了充分選擇的自由．受效用最大化成支出最小化原則的制約，旅游消費(fèi)選擇必然有一定的指向性，即旅游者對(duì)不同旅游目的地的消費(fèi)時(shí)間組合將進(jìn)行最優(yōu)選擇。談到旅游消費(fèi),

27、大部分人都會(huì)將其與盲目消費(fèi)、過(guò)度消費(fèi)等聯(lián)系起來(lái).那些都是非理性消費(fèi)行為.但是作為人類(lèi)活動(dòng)行為中的很重要的一部分，非理性在我們的任何活動(dòng)行為中均有體現(xiàn);人類(lèi)活動(dòng)中的非理性有積極的一面;認(rèn)識(shí)我們消費(fèi)行為中的非理性有著十分重要的指導(dǎo)意義；同時(shí)，旅游開(kāi)發(fā)者在利用旅游者的非理性的過(guò)程中，應(yīng)該注意正確引導(dǎo)，要以更好地服務(wù)游客為原則。</p><p>　　除此之外，節(jié)日策劃者應(yīng)該從不同的角度、不同的側(cè)面烘托節(jié)日氣氛、催火節(jié)日經(jīng)

28、濟(jì)，并且制定一個(gè)目標(biāo)來(lái)增加每年參與活動(dòng)的新的游客數(shù)量。此文的意義在于總結(jié)方法論，使人們?cè)诠?jié)日時(shí)對(duì)新游客的花費(fèi)有更準(zhǔn)確的評(píng)估。</p><p>　　本文基于克朗普頓（體育管理雜志，1995年）、泰瑞爾和約翰遜（旅游研究雜志，2001年）以及霍德?tīng)柡屠姿固乩锲潱〞?huì)展與節(jié)事旅游雜志，2006年）的研究，將與會(huì)者劃分為以下三種類(lèi)型。</p><p>　　隨意型：參與盛會(huì)的旅游者，但是對(duì)他們而言，選

29、擇去某地區(qū)旅游時(shí)參與盛會(huì)并不是一個(gè)重要的理由；時(shí)間調(diào)控型： 認(rèn)為節(jié)事是他們決定去某地旅游中相對(duì)重要部分的游客，無(wú)論他們每年去該地幾次；以及新游客型：每年至少去一次從未去過(guò)某地的游客，并且對(duì)他們而言節(jié)事是他們旅游選擇的一個(gè)相對(duì)重要原因。</p><p>　　“沿海開(kāi)瓶節(jié)”是由一個(gè)非盈利性機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)起的和美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)收入署501-C4局發(fā)起的，旨在重視美國(guó)南卡羅萊納州美爾特海灘的紅酒和烹飪。研究者準(zhǔn)備好了調(diào)查工具并隨機(jī)安排2

30、16名與會(huì)者參加2011年5月的節(jié)事。</p><p>　　由調(diào)查研究表明，30名參與者是隨意型游客，26名參與者是時(shí)間調(diào)控型，39名是新游客型，而剩下的參與者是本地居民，這個(gè)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)表示隨意型/時(shí)間調(diào)控型/新游客型的平均指數(shù)分別為2.6/3.2/3.6，而每種類(lèi)型的費(fèi)用支出大約分別是2400美元/1726美元/2411美元。</p><p>　　新游客型的直接費(fèi)用從2010年增加了746

31、617美元至2011年，漲幅為295%。由美國(guó)投資移民就業(yè)模式乘數(shù)，僅產(chǎn)生于2011年新游客型直接費(fèi)用的間接性和誘發(fā)性支出分別為174973美元和254063美元。這高于2010年44305美元的間接性費(fèi)用和64301美元的誘發(fā)性費(fèi)用。新游客型部分直接費(fèi)用的增加歸結(jié)于兩個(gè)原因：每部分每年有41%的增長(zhǎng)以及新游客型與會(huì)者數(shù)量增加了180%。由上述原因，隨意型游客的百分比在2011年有所下降。</p><p>　　這

32、并不是代表說(shuō)所謂的時(shí)間調(diào)控型或隨意型的與會(huì)者的支出沒(méi)有研究意義。顯然，由時(shí)間調(diào)控型游客的費(fèi)用占了2011年所有與會(huì)者直接開(kāi)支的40.6%，這樣的開(kāi)支可能產(chǎn)生在高需求期。但在理論上，這種附加能力作為變化的旅游數(shù)據(jù)，在高需求期的市場(chǎng)中仍可用，讓額外的和潛在高消費(fèi)的游客能在旅游高峰期去目的地旅行。</p><p>　　研究表明三種分類(lèi)的不同結(jié)果。未能識(shí)別三種分類(lèi)時(shí)，也許會(huì)高估新游客在節(jié)日盛世時(shí)支出的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。</