外文翻譯--政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析——馬其頓的案例研究（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文4300字,2580單詞，13500英文字符</p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文資料翻譯</p><p>　　系 別： 經(jīng)濟(jì)系 </p><p>　　專 業(yè)： 會(huì)計(jì)學(xué) </p><p>　　姓 名： </p>

2、<p>　　學(xué) 號(hào)： </p><p><b>　　外文資料翻譯譯文</b></p><p><b>　　政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析</b></p><p>　　——馬其頓的案例研究</p><p>　　摘要：巴拉（1983）發(fā)展海外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣（公司

3、）作為政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過(guò)程的第一步，在外國(guó)直接投資決策中，他使用了一個(gè)政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)措施。然而，人口少于5百萬(wàn)或人均收入低于500美元的國(guó)家，由于市場(chǎng)規(guī)模不足而被排除在考慮之外。因?yàn)轳R其頓人口在2000000左右，人均收入9美元，本研究將嘗試?yán)没ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)上的可用的和可靠的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)確定其在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣中的位置。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣</p><p><

4、b>　　1、引言</b></p><p>　　在本文中，我們將利用現(xiàn)成的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施，分析馬其頓在二維矩陣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)位置。巴拉（1983）描述了四個(gè)步驟的過(guò)程，可用于國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和第一步是所謂的外國(guó)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣（公司）。這個(gè)矩陣允許跨國(guó)公司對(duì)國(guó)家基礎(chǔ)上只使用政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施。大多數(shù)的研究不包括少于5000000的人口和人均收入低于500美元的國(guó)家。馬其頓是第一組的一部分，它的人口有

5、2000000左右。本文將使用的想法是巴拉的模型國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和麥高文、默勒擴(kuò)展的版本。</p><p>　　關(guān)于國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，可以說(shuō)它是相關(guān)的變化，這種變化可能發(fā)生在一個(gè)國(guó)家的商業(yè)環(huán)境，也可能會(huì)降低對(duì)外投資的盈利能力。投資者需要考慮的是該國(guó)的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這兩個(gè)是國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要成分。</p><p><b>　　2、文獻(xiàn)綜述</b></p><p

6、><b>　　2.1風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別</b></p><p>　　許多研究者都傾向于將國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類。他們中的一些人同意六個(gè)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別，如下所示。許多的類別彼此重疊，了解國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)和國(guó)家政治體系與國(guó)際社會(huì)之間的相互關(guān)系。盡管許多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析師不同意這個(gè)列表，并認(rèn)為主要有兩類，分別是經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這六大類：</p><p><b>　　I轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b&g

7、t;</p><p><b>　　II匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b></p><p><b>　　III位置風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b></p><p><b>　　IV主權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b></p><p><b>　　V經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b></p><p><b

8、>　　VI政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b></p><p>　　轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是由外國(guó)政府的決定引起的限制資本流動(dòng)所產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這種限制可能會(huì)難以遣返利潤(rùn)，股息，或資本。政府在任何時(shí)候改變資本運(yùn)動(dòng)規(guī)律的權(quán)利都可以影響全社會(huì)各類投資。這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一個(gè)國(guó)家賺取外匯的能力，量化它仍然是困難的，因?yàn)樗梢詮?qiáng)迫一個(gè)純粹的政治回應(yīng)另一個(gè)問(wèn)題。</p><p>　　外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是由于匯率變動(dòng)而影響投資所形成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

9、。這種基于經(jīng)濟(jì)理論指導(dǎo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在一到兩年的時(shí)間內(nèi)分析，因?yàn)槎虝r(shí)間的外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是被貨幣交易的動(dòng)力驅(qū)動(dòng)，可以通過(guò)各種機(jī)制和期貨套期保值來(lái)消除。</p><p>　　外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)樨泿诺拇蠓H值可以減少的一些導(dǎo)致轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的失衡。</p><p>　　位置風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是在一個(gè)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易伙伴，或類似的感知特性的國(guó)家，由一個(gè)地區(qū)問(wèn)題造成的溢出效應(yīng)引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以從一個(gè)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易伙伴，國(guó)際貿(mào)易聯(lián)

10、盟，國(guó)家的大小和邊界，還有與經(jīng)濟(jì)/政治上重要的國(guó)家的距離這幾方面被定義。</p><p>　　主權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難或政治動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期，政府將拒絕遵守貸款協(xié)議條款的可能性。當(dāng)政府耗盡外匯或者由于政治原因，政府決定不尊重其義務(wù)而產(chǎn)生政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，它可以與轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相結(jié)合。</p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是當(dāng)我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生重大變化時(shí)產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這將使投資的預(yù)期收益率發(fā)生變化。這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以從基本經(jīng)濟(jì)政策

11、目標(biāo)或國(guó)家的相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)中產(chǎn)生。由于國(guó)家的處理政策，它與政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相結(jié)合。</p><p>　　政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)自一個(gè)國(guó)家的政治結(jié)構(gòu)或其政策的變化，如稅法、關(guān)稅、征收的資產(chǎn)，或限制遣返利潤(rùn)。因?yàn)樵跂|道國(guó)的一些消費(fèi)者非常忠于本地制造的產(chǎn)品，正是因?yàn)檫@種態(tài)度，政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會(huì)發(fā)生。最常見(jiàn)的行為是東道國(guó)政府政府，在那里他們可以實(shí)施特殊要求或稅收，限制基金轉(zhuǎn)移和對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)進(jìn)行補(bǔ)貼。或相反，各國(guó)政府缺乏限制。另一個(gè)可能導(dǎo)致政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行為

12、是跨國(guó)公司堵塞基金轉(zhuǎn)移或如果外匯收入不能改變成其他貨幣貨幣，而跨國(guó)公司母公司可能需要交換貨物，將不可兌換。戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)甚至戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的威脅，都可能產(chǎn)生毀滅性的后果和代表性政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。官僚主義和腐敗的人也可以使業(yè)務(wù)活動(dòng)變得復(fù)雜，增加其成本或減少收入。</p><p>　　2.2外商投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣</p><p>　　巴拉的國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過(guò)程有四個(gè)步驟。第一步是創(chuàng)建外商投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣，這樣我們就可以確定提供一個(gè)穩(wěn)

13、定的政治環(huán)境和有一個(gè)投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力的國(guó)家。第二步，將為選中的國(guó)家創(chuàng)建國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的第一步。之后，他建議建立一個(gè)對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，為第三步中每一個(gè)國(guó)家的每個(gè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行分析。第四步將創(chuàng)建風(fēng)險(xiǎn)審計(jì)，在連續(xù)的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行監(jiān)控和重新評(píng)估環(huán)境，并向跨國(guó)公司預(yù)示該國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治穩(wěn)定性的變化。</p><p>　　巴拉前面提到的二維矩陣的四個(gè)分類變量為每個(gè)政治或經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。國(guó)家政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為四類：A穩(wěn)定，B中度不穩(wěn)定，C波動(dòng)不穩(wěn)定，和D顯著

14、不穩(wěn)定。經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是分為四類：第一類表示可接受的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，第二類表示中度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，第三類為重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，第四類指定不可接受的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。他使用的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施是政府穩(wěn)定性，政府變化的頻率和公眾對(duì)政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和機(jī)構(gòu)的態(tài)度。對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，巴拉利用公司產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)潛力，人口學(xué)特征和國(guó)家的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，經(jīng)濟(jì)收入，人均國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)潛力。</p><p>　　巴拉（1983）認(rèn)為，在決定經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，人均收入和人均收入的分布是決定經(jīng)濟(jì)和政

15、治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的最重要的變量，因?yàn)槿司杖敕从沉藵撛诘慕?jīng)濟(jì)和政治管理的有效性。人均收入水平和人均收入的分布影響著經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。更均勻的人均收入分布減少了經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　通過(guò)使用這四個(gè)二維矩陣，巴拉將國(guó)家分了十六個(gè)不同的類別。國(guó)家的政治穩(wěn)定和可接受的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將會(huì)在左上角和政治不穩(wěn)定與不可接受的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)在右下角。</p><p>　　在本文中，我們將演示如何使用巴拉的矩陣和麥

16、高文、穆勒擴(kuò)展的版本，他們只使用了可以很容易地在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上找到的現(xiàn)成的措施。</p><p>　　3、馬其頓的案例研究</p><p>　　由于約2000000居民人口數(shù)量，對(duì)于馬其頓的研究，在大多數(shù)的情況下離開(kāi)了國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析?；邴湼呶暮湍障惹暗难芯?，馬其頓的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排名就是根據(jù)這些變量進(jìn)行的：政府對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資(FDI)的態(tài)度，國(guó)家的沖突程度和國(guó)內(nèi)的腐敗。還三個(gè)變量被用來(lái)衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：

17、人均國(guó)民總收入，外商投資的潛力，以及通貨膨脹率。所有這些變量都可以在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上得到并且它們都是可靠的，因?yàn)樗鼈兌紒?lái)自可靠的和受人尊敬的網(wǎng)站，這些網(wǎng)站每年都會(huì)使用可靠的方法進(jìn)行國(guó)家排名。</p><p>　　政府對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資的態(tài)度可以通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)自由指數(shù)來(lái)衡量，子指數(shù)為資本流入和對(duì)外投資。一些信息可以在赫里蒂奇的網(wǎng)站上找到。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)自由指數(shù)最高和最低的五個(gè)，分項(xiàng)指標(biāo)必須減去五。在馬其頓的情況下，這一措施指數(shù)為2。<

18、;/p><p>　　海德堡研究所發(fā)布的國(guó)際沖突晴雨表，可以再網(wǎng)站上找到，提供關(guān)于國(guó)家的沖突程度的信息。馬其頓的這個(gè)變量是2。</p><p>　　國(guó)際透明組織在每年的基礎(chǔ)上通過(guò)計(jì)算使用的貪污印象指數(shù)來(lái)感知腐敗。該指數(shù)是一個(gè)多指標(biāo)和感知的腐敗調(diào)查的加權(quán)平均。CPI的轉(zhuǎn)換是出版價(jià)值除以二。馬其頓的感知腐敗系數(shù)是1.6，了解起始值是3.8。</p><p>　　人均國(guó)民收入總

19、值數(shù)據(jù)可從由世界銀行發(fā)表的世界發(fā)展指標(biāo)報(bào)告中看到，這里我們指定：</p><p>　　——五個(gè)高收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體，</p><p>　　——四個(gè)中上等收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體，</p><p>　　——三個(gè)中下等收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體，</p><p>　　——兩個(gè)低收入和中等收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體，</p><p>　　——一個(gè)低收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體</p>

20、<p>　　馬其頓的人均GNI等級(jí)是3。</p><p>　　外商直接投資潛力是通過(guò)聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議的外商投資潛力指數(shù)衡量的，這是一個(gè)同樣的加權(quán)平均值(歸零分之，，得分最低的國(guó)家，和一個(gè)得分最高的)，包括12種不同的變量：</p><p><b>　　——人均GDP</b></p><p>　　——十年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率</p&g

21、t;<p><b>　　——出口占GDP</b></p><p>　　——每1000人平均數(shù)量的電話線</p><p>　　——商業(yè)人均能源消耗</p><p>　　——研發(fā)支出占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值</p><p>　　——大專學(xué)生人口的比例</p><p><b>　　——國(guó)家

22、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b></p><p>　　——世界自然資源的出口市場(chǎng)份額</p><p>　　——對(duì)汽車和電子產(chǎn)品零部件進(jìn)口的世界市場(chǎng)份額</p><p>　　——世界服務(wù)出口的市場(chǎng)占世界內(nèi)外商直接投資股票的份額</p><p>　　自該指數(shù)從零到一個(gè)值，它可以通過(guò)公布值乘以十并且除以二進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)換。馬其頓的值是0.6。</p>

23、<p>　　通貨膨脹率可以測(cè)量到經(jīng)濟(jì)自由指數(shù)，貨幣政策分類指數(shù)。分類指數(shù)要減去五，因?yàn)樵撝笖?shù)最高和最低的5個(gè)。貨幣政策指數(shù)是基于之前的十年的通貨膨脹率。馬其頓這個(gè)變量是0.5%，但減去5是4.5。</p><p>　　在我們確定經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的價(jià)值之后，我們用它們來(lái)找到馬其頓總的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　表1：馬其頓的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素</p>&

24、lt;p>　　繼巴拉的模型和麥高文、默勒的擴(kuò)展模型之后，我們創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)二維圖形。一個(gè)維度是經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，另一個(gè)維度是政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，兩者比例從一到五。之后，我們使用從表1中的價(jià)值來(lái)找到馬其頓的位置。就像我們?cè)趫D1中可以看到，馬其頓的位置是在左下角，只是為與國(guó)家接受外國(guó)直接投資及在右上角的國(guó)家進(jìn)行比較。</p><p>　　在我們已經(jīng)計(jì)算出的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)維度的維度，我們位于馬其頓在外國(guó)投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣（圖1）。不確

25、定區(qū)域的位置告訴我們，只有當(dāng)沒(méi)有其他國(guó)家可以投資或當(dāng)跨國(guó)公司要不惜任何代價(jià)參與這個(gè)市場(chǎng)時(shí)，馬其頓可能代表一個(gè)國(guó)家對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資。這個(gè)位置可以通過(guò)進(jìn)一步的分析，國(guó)家很容易改變，這將有助于投資決策。接近不可接受的地區(qū)可能代表一種威脅，但我們知道，這個(gè)國(guó)家正在發(fā)生大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治變革，在下一年可接受的區(qū)域，可以預(yù)計(jì)看到公司更接近馬其頓的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)職位。</p><p><b>　　5</b></p

26、><p><b>　　可接受地區(qū)</b></p><p><b>　　4</b></p><p><b>　　3</b></p><p><b>　　馬其頓</b></p><p><b>　　2</b></

27、p><p>　　不可接受地區(qū) 不確定地區(qū)</p><p><b>　　1</b></p><p>　　1 2 3 4 5</p><p><b>　　財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</b></p><p

28、>　　圖1：外國(guó)投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣—馬其頓的位置</p><p><b>　　4、結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　外國(guó)投資對(duì)于像馬其頓這樣的小國(guó)家是非常重要的。在歐洲的巴爾干半島的一部分，一些跨國(guó)公司意味著很多，尤其是當(dāng)他們做出投資決策和他們心目中的那個(gè)地區(qū)過(guò)去的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和不穩(wěn)定性。雖然這是歷史，并且和該地區(qū)的其他國(guó)家一樣，馬其頓里那個(gè)地區(qū)已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)了，還有由于人口的數(shù)量

29、，這個(gè)國(guó)家沒(méi)有任何風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析部分。</p><p>　　隨著投資的越來(lái)越重要，對(duì)政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的需要也已經(jīng)到來(lái)了。許多國(guó)家對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資都是開(kāi)放的，他們中的一些已經(jīng)打開(kāi)，也有一些對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資存在敵意。在任何情況下，跨國(guó)公司需要對(duì)國(guó)家的特定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)級(jí)，而不是從一些評(píng)估服務(wù)中發(fā)現(xiàn)總額定值。我們知道在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上我們可以得到可用的信息，并記住最重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)–經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治，任何跨國(guó)公司可以分析國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，巴拉的國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過(guò)

30、程和麥高文與默勒的擴(kuò)展版本的公司如下。</p><p>　　跨國(guó)公司需要能夠確定提供最好的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件和政治穩(wěn)定的國(guó)家，以確保長(zhǎng)期的生產(chǎn)和銷售。政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)通常可以是政府行為的結(jié)果，經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以則是微觀或宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定變化的結(jié)果。對(duì)于這兩個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，跨國(guó)公司的欲望還是穩(wěn)定的。</p><p>　　本研究中所用的對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣是一個(gè)很好的框架，任何跨國(guó)公司都可以用它來(lái)分析政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。任何跨國(guó)公司可以

31、定位自己的價(jià)值，更可能與他們的具體的在一個(gè)特定的國(guó)家的投資相結(jié)合。在這項(xiàng)研究中，我們使用初始國(guó)家研究和其他研究人員先前推薦的特定價(jià)值觀作為引導(dǎo)。在本文采用的六個(gè)獨(dú)立的變量的基礎(chǔ)上，國(guó)家的外國(guó)直接投資是可以接受，不可接受的，并且提供不確定的環(huán)境中，在我們做出接受或拒絕他們的投資決策之前，需要進(jìn)一步的研究。最后，公司幫助跨國(guó)公司的決策者，消除國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并做出正確的投資決策。米斯柯狄德羅</p><p><b&g

32、t;　　馬里安狄德羅</b></p><p>　　計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院，戈瑟德?tīng)柹虼髮W(xué)，斯蒂普，馬其頓</p><p><b>　　外文原文</b></p><p>　　Political and Economic Risk Analysis</p><p>　　——Case study of Mace

33、donia</p><p>　　Marjan Dzidrov</p><p>　　Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology,</p><p>　　Goce Delcev University, Stip, Macedonia</p><p>　　Abstract: Bhall

34、a (1983) developed Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM) as one step of the political risk analysis process, where he uses political and economic risk measures in the foreign direct investment decision making. However, c

35、ountries with population less than 5 millions or income per capita less than $500 are excluded from consideration because of the insufficient market size. Knowing that Macedonia has population around 2 million and $9.000

36、 income per capita, this research will attemp</p><p>　　Keywords: political risk, economic risk, Foreign Investment Risk Matrix.</p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　In this paper we wil

37、l analyse Macedonian risk position in the two-dimensional matrix, using readily available measures of political and economic risk. Bhalla (1983) described a four-step process that can be used for country risk analysis an

38、d the first step is called the Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM). This matrix allows a multinational company to rate countries basing on the risk and using only political and economic risk measures. Most of the resea

39、rchers do not include countries with les</p><p>　　2 Literature review</p><p>　　2.1 Risk categories </p><p>　　Many researchers have tended to separate country risk into categories. S

40、ome of them agreed on six major risk categories that are shown below. Many of the categories overlap with each other, knowing the interrelationship between the domestic economy and political system in the countries and w

41、ith the international community. Although many risk analysts do not agree with this list, and believe that the main two categories include economic risk and political risk. These are the six major categories:</p>

42、<p>　　I. Transfer Risk </p><p>　　II. Exchange Rate Risk </p><p>　　III. Location Risk </p><p>　　IV. Sovereign Risk </p><p>　　V. Economic Risk </p><p>　

43、　VI. Political Risk</p><p>　　Transfer Risk is the risk arising from a decision by a foreign government to restrict capital movements. This kind of restrictions might make a situation where it will be difficu

44、lt to repatriate profits, dividends, or capital. The right of the government to change capital movement rules at any time can affect all types of investments in the country. This risk is analyzed as a function of a coun

45、try's ability to earn foreign currency and quantifying it remains difficult, since it can be forced by</p><p>　　Exchange Risk is the risk that will affect the investment by changes in exchange rates. Thi

46、s risk, basing on the economic theory guides can be analysed in a one to two year period, since the short time exchange risk is driven by currency trading momentum and can be eliminated through various hedging mechanisms

47、 and futures arrangements.</p><p>　　Exchange risk can be identified with transfer risk, since a sharp depreciation of the currency can reduce some of the imbalances that lead to increased transfer risk.</

48、p><p>　　Location Risk is the risk caused by spillover effects caused by problems in a region, in a country's trading partner, or in countries with similar perceived characteristics. This risk can be defined

49、 from country’s trading partners, international trading alliances, country size and borders, and the distance from economically/politically important countries.</p><p>　　Sovereign Risk is the probability tha

50、t government will refuse to comply with the terms of a loan agreement during economically difficult or politically volatile times. It can be related to transfer risk when the government runs out of foreign exchange, or p

51、olitical risk when the government will decide not to respect its obligation because of political reasons.</p><p>　　Economic Risk is the risk when we have major change in the economic structure, that will bri

52、ng changes in the expected return of investment. This risk can arise from changes in fundamental economic policy goals or country's comparative advantage. It’s connected with the political risk, since both deal with

53、policy in the country.</p><p>　　Political Risk comes from the changes in a country's political structure or its policies, such as tax laws, tariffs, expropriation of assets, or restriction in repatriatio

54、n of profits. It can occur because of attitude of consumers in the host country where some consumers are very loyal to locally manufactured products. The most common action is the one from the host government, where they

55、 can impose special requirements or taxes, restrict fund transfers, and subsidize local firms. Or the opposit</p><p>　　2.2 Foreign Investment Risk Matrix </p><p>　　Bhalla’s country risk analysis

56、 process has four-steps. The first step is to create the foreign investment risk matrix where we can determine the countries that provide a stable political environment and have economic potential for a investment. Secon

57、d step will create country risk profile for the selected countries in the first step. After that, he suggested to create a foreign investment risk analysis for each project for each country in the third step. The fourth

58、step will create risk audit th</p><p>　　Bhalla’s previously mentioned two-dimensional ma-trix has four categorical variables for each political/economical risk. Country political risk is categorised into fou

59、r categories: A being stable, B being moderately unstable, C being volatility unstable, and D being substantially unstable. Economic risk is categorised into four categories: category one indicates acceptable risk, categ

60、ory two indicates moderate risk, category three major risk, and category four specifies unacceptable risk. Measur</p><p>　　Bhalla (1983) argues that income per capita and the distribution of income per capit

61、a are the most important variables in determining both economic and political risk because income per capita reflects both the underlying economy and the effectiveness of the political management. Both the level of incom

62、e per capita and the distribution of income per capita effect economic and political risk. More evenly distributed income per capita reduces both economic and political risk. </p><p>　　Using this four by fou

63、r two-dimensional matrix, Bhalla rated countries in sixteen different categories. Countries with political stability and acceptable economic risk would be in the upper left corner and those with political instability and

64、 unacceptable economic risk would be in the lower right corner.</p><p>　　In this paper, we will demonstrate how to use Bhalla’s matrix and the extended version by McGowan Jr. and Moeller where they only use

65、readily available measures that can be easily found on internet.</p><p>　　3. Case study of Macedonia </p><p>　　This research is conducted for Macedonia, country that in most of the cases is left

66、 out of the country risk analysis because of the population number that is around 2 million citizens. Basing on the previous research from McGowan Jr. and Moeller, Macedonia was ranked using this variables for the politi

67、cal risk: attitude of the government toward foreign direct investment (FDI), conflict degree of the country, and perceived corruption within the country. Also three variables were used to measure t</p><p>　　

68、The Attitude of Government toward FDI can be measured by the Index of Economic Freedom, with the sub-index for Capital Flows and Foreign Investment. Some information can be found on Heritage internet site. The sub-indexe

69、s must be subtracted by five, since the Indexes of economic freedom are highest at one and lowest at five. In the case of Macedonia, this measure index is 2.</p><p>　　Conflict Barometer published by the Heid

70、elberg Institute of International Conflict, available on site, gives information about the degree of country conflict. This variable for Macedonia is 2. </p><p>　　Perceived corruption is calculated by Transp

71、arency International on a yearly basis, using the Corruptions Perceptions Index. The index is a weighted average of a number of indexes and surveys of perceived corruption. The CPI is transformed by dividing the publishe

72、d value by two. Perceived corruption for Macedonia is 1.6, knowing that the starting value is 3.8.</p><p>　　Gross national income per capita data are available from World Development Indicators report which

73、is published by the World Bank and can be found on. Here we assign: </p><p>　　-five for a high income economy,</p><p>　　- four for an upper middle income economy,</p><p>　　- three f

74、or a lower middle income economy,</p><p>　　- two for a low and middle income economy,</p><p>　　- one for a low income economy.</p><p>　　Macedonia’s GNI per capita rating is 3.</p

75、><p>　　FDI Potential is measured by using UNCTAD’s Inward FDI Potential Index which is an equally weighted average of the values (normalized to yield a score between zero, for the lowest scoring country, and on

76、e, for the highest) including 12 different variables:</p><p>　　- GDP per capita, </p><p>　　- Growth rate of GDP for ten years, </p><p>　　- Exports to GDP, </p><p>　　-

77、 Average number of telephone lines per 1000 citizens, </p><p>　　- Commercial energy use per capita, </p><p>　　- R&D spending to GDP, </p><p>　　- Proportion of tertiary studen

78、ts in the population, </p><p>　　- Country risk, </p><p>　　- World market share in exports of natural resources, </p><p>　　- World market share of imports of parts and components fo

79、r automobiles and electronic products,</p><p>　　- World market share of exports of services, the share of world FDI inward stock. </p><p>　　Since this index has value from zero to one, it can be

80、 transformed by multiplying the published values by ten and dividing them by two. Macedonia’s value is 0.6.</p><p>　　Inflation Rate can be measured by the Index of Economic Freedom, sub-index for Monetary

81、 Policy. Here the sub-index is subtracted by five, since the index is highest at one and lowest at five. The Monetary policy index is based on the inflation rate for the previous ten years in the country. This variable f

82、or Macedonia is 0.5% but subtracted from 5 is 4.5.</p><p>　　After we determined the values for economical and political risk, we used them to find the total political and economical risk for Macedonia. <

83、/p><p>　　Table 1: Economical and Political risk factors for Macedonia.</p><p>　　Following the Bhalla’s model and the extended model by McGowan Jr. and Moeller we created a two dimensional graphic.

84、One dimension is economic risk and the other dimension is political risk, both of them scaled from one to five. After that we used the values from Table 1 to find the position of Macedonia. Like we can see in Figure 1, M

85、acedonian position is in the lower left corner, just for comparison with the countries that are acceptable for foreign direct investment and are in the upper right</p><p>　　After we had calculated the politi

86、cal risk dimension and economic risk dimension, we positioned Macedonia in the Foreign Investment Risk Matrix. (Figure 1.) Its position in the uncertain region tells us that Macedonia might represent a country for a dire

87、ct foreign investment only in a case when there are no other countries that are available for FDI or in a case when the MNC wants to participate in this market at any cost. This position can be easily changed by further

88、analysing of that country,</p><p><b>　　5</b></p><p>　　Acceptable region</p><p><b>　　4</b></p><p><b>　　3</b></p><p><

89、b>　　Macedonia</b></p><p><b>　　2</b></p><p>　　Unacceptable region uncertain region</p><p><b>　　1</b></p><p>　　1 2

90、 3 4 5</p><p>　　Financial Risk</p><p>　　Figure 1. Foreign Investment Risk Matrix - Macedonia’s position</p><p>　　4. Conclusions </p><p>　　Forei

91、gn investment is of great importance for a small country like Macedonia. Being in the Balkan part of Europe, for some MNC’s means a lot, especially when they have to make investment decision and they have in mind the war

92、 past and instability of that region. Although that is history and Macedonia, like some other countries in that region, has moved far forward from that image, still this country is not part of any risk analysis, because

93、of the number of the population.</p><p>　　With the importance of investment, the need for political and economic risk analysis comes too. Many countries are open for FDI, some of them have just opened, and a

94、lso there are those that are hostile to foreign direct investment. In any case MNCs need specific ratings of the risk of the countries, rather than the general ratings that can be found from some assessment services. Kno

95、wing that there is available information on internet, and having in mind the most important risks-economic and poli</p><p>　　Multinational corporations need to be able to determine the countries that offer t

96、he best economic conditions and political stability that ensures production and sale for a long run. Political risk usually can result from government actions and economic risk can result from changes in the micro or mac

97、roeconomic stability. For both of them, MNCs desire less instability.</p><p>　　The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix used in this research represents a good framework and any MNC can use it to analyze both, pol

98、itical and economic risk. Any MNC can specify its own values, that are more likely connected to their specific investment in a specific country. For this research, as a guidance we used values that are specific for initi