從歷史看電動自行車在中國快速轉型的主要原因【外文翻譯】

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： The transition to electric bikes in China: history and key reasons for rapid growth </p><p>　　出 處： Transport

2、ation </p><p>　　作 者： Jonathan Weinert 、Chaktan Ma and Christopher Cherry </p><p>　　The transition to electric bikes in China: history and key</p><p>　　

3、reasons for rapid growth</p><p>　　Jonathan Weinert Chaktan Ma Christopher Cherry</p><p>　　Abstract Annual electric bike (e-bike) sales in China grew from 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005.

4、 This rapid transition from human-powered bicycles, buses and gasoline-powered scooters to an all-electric vehicle/fuel technology system is special in the evolution of transportation technology and, thus far, unique to

5、China. We examine how and why e-bikes developed so quickly in China with particular focus on the key technical, economic, and political factors involved. This case study provides</p><p>　　Keywords E-bike E

6、lectric bicycle Electric scooter Two-wheel vehicle</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　Electric bikes are a category of vehicles in China that includes two-wheel bikes propelled by human pedaling

7、supplemented by electrical power from a storage battery, and low-speed scooters propelled almost solely by electricity (usually with perfunctory pedals to satisfy legal definitions). These vehicles have become a popular

8、transportation mode for Chinese consumers because they provide an inexpensive and convenient form of private mobility and are thus an attractive alternative to public tran</p><p>　　Understanding the transiti

9、on to e-bikes is important for guiding the future of personal mobility in China and other developing countries. First, China is on the brink of large-scale motorization (i.e. people buying cars). Understanding how and wh

10、y a large-scale technology system (e-bikes) is successfully adopted may provide insight and a foundation for a smoother transition to cleaner vehicle/fuel systems for personal cars as motorization continues. Secondly, ma

11、ny other developing nations in Sou</p><p>　　Electric bikes background and current status</p><p>　　There are hundreds of models of electric bikes manufactured in China. Most can be categorized as

12、 bicycle style electric bikes (BSEB) or scooter style electric bikes (SSEB) (see Fig. 1) (Jamerson and Benjamin 2005). There is a spectrum of styles between these two types that almost all electric bikes styles fall into

13、. The SSEBs have many of the features of gasoline-powered scooters such as horns, headlights, brake lights, turn signals and speedometers. Most rely exclusively on electric power, not </p><p>　　The technolog

14、y of each type of electric bike is similar. The main components of an electric battery include a hub motor, controller and battery. BSEBs typically have 36 V batteries and 180–250 W motors. SSEBs typically have larger 48

15、 V batteries and higher-powered motors 350–500 W. Electric bikes are regulated not to exceed 20 km/h, but many, especially scooters, can travel at speeds in excess of that limit and some are advertised to go 40 km/h. A s

16、mall sub-survey of 14 e-bike users reveal top s</p><p>　　E-bike issues</p><p>　　Safety is perhaps the most important issue facing e-bike growth. In November 2006, Guangzhou became the third city

17、 in China to ban e-bikes (behind Fuzhou and Zhuhai), under advice from the traffic management bureau citing traffic safety concerns (XinhuaNet 2006). This is primarily because e-bikes, while becoming faster and heavier,

18、 are very quiet. When operating, they are virtually imperceptible by ear, especially to vehicles, which makes e-bike users vulnerable but also dangerous to pedestrian</p><p>　　While e-bikes provide zero tail

19、-pipe emissions, they do emit pollution from power plants, which are 75% coal fired in China (Cherry 2006). This results in increased emissions of certain pollutants, particularly SO2, which is particularly problematic i

20、n Chinese cities. Other pollutants are low, compared to alternative modes (Cherry 2006). Lead emissions from battery production and recycling have serious health implications in China. Because of poor production and recy

21、cling practices within the le</p><p>　　The Chinese e-bike industry</p><p>　　The Chinese e-bike industry, with minimal governmental financial support and industry supervision, has developed into

22、the largest producer of e-bikes worldwide. Most produce between 10,000 and 50,000e-bikes a year, but there are six companies with an annual production of over200,000 e-bikes.</p><p>　　One reason for the larg

23、e number of companies in this industry is that component technology is mature, the network of suppliers is vast, and manufacturing is relatively simple.2 Profit margins of eight OEMs average at only 6%. There is also con

24、siderable theft of intellectual property (IP) by the small to medium companies according to interviews with the managers from larger e-companies. Because of the low barriers to entry and lax IP protection, there are many

25、 unlicensed e-bike makers selling poo</p><p>　　The companies that currently make e-bikes come from a variety of industrial backgrounds. Some are established companies producing bicycles, motorcycles, electri

26、cal appliances, and even toy cars, that shifted to making e-bikes when demand grew. Some of these companies are over 60 years old, but most did not start producing e-bikes until post-2000. Many companies with no past man

27、ufacturing experience entered the industry making e-bikes directly.</p><p>　　Important factors for rapid e-bike growth</p><p>　　The reasons for e-bike success in the 3rd phase can be categorized

28、 into three important development factors: technology, economics, and policy.</p><p>　　1、Technology factors</p><p>　　Improvements in battery and motor technology since the 90s helped expand the

29、market for e-bikes. E-bikes, reaching ranges of 50–60 km . </p><p>　　Over 95% of e-bikes sold in China use Pb-acid batteries (Jamerson and Benjamin 2005). While Pb-acid batteries have been in use for nearly

30、a century in automobiles and other applications, there have been important advances in the past decade rendering them more suitable for e-bikes.</p><p>　　During the first phase of e-bike introduction, batter

31、ies used liquid acid electrolyte instead of the fixed electrolyte used in most Pb-acid batteries today. Liquid-type required more maintenance, and if the battery or bike fell over, electrolyte leaked out and caused prope

32、rty damage. Most e-bikes today use valve-regulated Pb-acid types with gel or absorbed glass mat (AGM) electrolyte, which, in addition to improving energy density, also minimizes maintenance and electrolyte spills due to

33、its sea</p><p>　　2、Economic factors</p><p>　　The most important economic factors explaining rapid e-bike adoption in China are the rising income level of the Chinese, the decreasing cost of e-bi

34、ke technology, and the rising cost of gasoline.The rapid development of China in the past decade has raised the standard of livingof its residents, bringing the e-bike within closer reach of millions more. Between1997 an

35、d 2004, average disposable income increased 82% from $645/year to $1180/year.</p><p>　　Fuel price has risen substantially in the past 6 years. Gasoline prices in Shanghai increased 45% since 2002 from $0.39

36、to $0.56/liter (excluding inflation). Consumers purchase decisionsare sensitive to fuel cost increases since it is a more frequent payment.Along with rising gasoline prices, electricity prices fell in rural areas. This

37、price decrease was due to significant investment from central government in electricity infrastructure through rural areas nationwide, and the decision to drop </p><p>　　expand rapidly.3 One electric bike co

38、mpany estimates that in 2005 the rural consumers accounted for 20% of their national e-bike sales .</p><p>　　3、Policy factors</p><p>　　China’s rapid urbanization (the flux of rural people into c

39、ities) over the past decade, also a product of economic and political changes, is another a factor in e-bike growth. Urbanization has led to increased congestion within cities and greater demand for low-cost peripheral h

40、ousing in their suburbs. Public transportation service in most cities is crowded and slow due to congestion, which is one of the mostcommonly stated reasons e-bike users choose this mode . Buses are also inherently infle

41、x</p><p>　　Conclusions</p><p>　　E-bikes, though they floundered twice in the 80s and early 90s, experienced extraordinary growth in the late 90s to the present due to a combination of economic,

42、technical, and political factors, summarized below:</p><p>　　1. E-bike technology, specifically motors and batteries, improved significantly during the late 1990s. Simple technology, a vast supplier base, an

43、d weak IP protection made it easier for e-bike makers to enter the industry, increasing competition and driving prices down.</p><p>　　2. Due to improving economic conditions nationally, incomes of urban hous

44、eholds and the share spent on transportation both rose considerably.</p><p>　　3. E-bike prices decreased, gasoline prices rose and electricity prices in rural areas dropped, making e-bikes more competitive e

45、conomically with alternatives like gasoline-powered scooters and bus.</p><p>　　4. National and local government policy motivated by energy and air quality issues created favorable conditions for e-bike growt

46、h. Banning gasoline powered motorcycles in large city centers removed the most competitive mode from the choice set.</p><p>　　5. National e-bike standards with loop-holes and flexible guidelines created a ri

47、ch opportunity for manufacturers to create e-bikes that appealed to more users, namely, scooter-style electric bikes.</p><p>　　6. Due to changes in urban form, performance of alternative transportation modes

48、 decreased as trips lengths and congestion increased. This made trips difficult to traverse by bicycle and slow by motorized modes, particularly buses and taxis.</p><p>　　Recommendations</p><p>

49、　　E-bikes are still in their infancy and many of their negative impacts can be mitigated through technology improvements (particularly increased use of advanced battery technology), improved traffic operation strategies

50、and enforced design and performance specifications. Removing vulnerable road users like bikes and e-bikes and encouraging truly unsafe modes like cars is a poor policy direction. Rather than prohibit electric bikes, the

51、industry, government and users need to address the problematic</p><p>　　transportation systems and mode choice as China motorizes. </p><p>　　Looking forward, this analysis hints at future techno

52、logy evolution paths for China’s 450 million bike users, 22 million current e-bike users, and burgeoning car population. In smaller cities and countryside where incomes are rising, e-bikes may eventually replace bicycles

53、. China’s experience may also have a trickle-down effect in other developing countries with high 2 WV use (e.g. India, Vietnam) and mounting urban transportation problems. Speculating on the future of technology evolutio

54、n and t</p><p>　　In any case, the implications of how and where this technology system develops are huge. These implications, both positive and negative, on urban traffic, industry development, energy use, a

55、nd environmental impacts, warrant further investigation.</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　從歷史看電動自行車在中國快速轉型的主要原因</p><p>　　喬納森·維納特 Chaktan·馬 斯托弗·克里</p>&

56、lt;p>　　【摘 要】電動自行車（電動車）在中國年度銷售額從1998年的40,000到2005年的1000萬。本文從人力自行車,公共汽車和用汽油作動力的滑板車過渡到特殊燃油系統(tǒng)的全電動車，到目前為止,中國在交通運輸上的發(fā)展是獨一無二的。我們研究如何以及為什么電動自行車在中國發(fā)展這么快，特別側重于關鍵的技術，經(jīng)濟和政治因素。這項個案研究重要的見解決策者在中國和國外如何及時監(jiān)管政策可以改變數(shù)以百萬計選購，并創(chuàng)建一個新模式運輸。這些

57、經(jīng)驗教訓對中國尤其重要，不僅因為它涉及從大型交通到個人車輛，還向其他國家尋求更多交通可持續(xù)形式。</p><p>　　【關鍵詞】電動自行車 電動滑板車 兩輪車</p><p><b>　　簡介</b></p><p>　　電動自行車，是指以蓄電池作為輔助能源在普通自行車的基礎上，安裝了電機、控制器、蓄電池、轉把閘把等操縱部件和顯示儀表系統(tǒng)的機電

58、一體化的個人交通工具。這些車輛,已成為一個受歡迎的運輸方式,因為他們?yōu)橹袊M者提供廉價和便利的形式的私人流動,因此對比公共交通或定期騎自行車，是一個有吸引力的選擇。由于他們能耗低,排放低，他們?yōu)閲以S多擁堵城市地區(qū)的政府所推動。電動車在中國交通的占有額日益增加，在中國,和在一些城市像成都和蘇州,甚至超過了自行車模式份額。</p><p>　　在中國和其他發(fā)展中國家，因為個人移動性日益重要，電動車引領未來或許成為

59、趨勢。第一,中國在大型機動化(即邊緣人購買轎車)。一個大型技術系統(tǒng)(電動車)成功應用是因為可以提供有技術,又環(huán)保的車輛/燃油系統(tǒng)，個人汽車的動力化還在繼續(xù)。其次,許多其他發(fā)展中國家比如東南亞(印度和越南等)，車輛使用正面臨著同樣的空氣質量和能源問題。這些國家可能可以向中國學習經(jīng)驗,采取電動車。</p><p><b>　　電動車的背景和現(xiàn)狀</b></p><p>　

60、　數(shù)百個型號的電動自行車在中國生產(chǎn)。大多數(shù)可以分為幾類,如（BSEB）自行車風格電動車和機車風格(SSEB)。有一種風格在這兩者之間,幾乎所有電動車風格都涉及。SSEB有許多如摩托車汽油頭燈、角,剎車燈,以汽油為動力的滑板車的許多特點。大多數(shù)完全依賴電力，而不是人力。BSEB在外觀和功能標準更像自行車,包括功能踏板。在很多城市,電動車是允許在自行車道行駛的,從監(jiān)管的角度，他們被看作是一個自行車(即頭盔、司機許可證是不需要)。</p

61、><p>　　每一種類型的電動車技術是相似的。主要部件電動電池包括一個轂電機、控制器和電池。BSEB通常有36 V電池和180-250 W電機。SSEB通常有較大的48 V電池和高動力馬達 350-500 w，電動車電機規(guī)范不超過20公里/小時,但很多人,特別是摩托車、可以駕駛的速度超過這個限制達到40公里/小時。一個電動車用戶的調查報告顯示，最高的速度從25 - 40公里/小時到25 - 50公里和范圍,需要6 -

62、 8小時給電池充電。電動車電池充電,是一個標準的插座,因此不需要新的基礎設施。大多數(shù)的電動車用戶接受采訪，他們一般在家里晚上給電動車充電，因為電費晚上便宜。在城市地區(qū),這通常意味著載著或電池或整個電動車成多層次的公寓大樓。這也是常見到自行車被指控的經(jīng)常使用商店前面標準插座充電。</p><p><b>　　電動車問題</b></p><p>　　安全問題是影響電動車行

63、業(yè)迅速發(fā)展的重要因素。2006年11月,由于來自交通管理局的建議，廣州成為繼福州和珠海后中國第三個禁止電動車的城市(新華網(wǎng)2006)。這主要是因為電動車變得更快更安靜。操作時,他們幾乎是不知不覺用聽覺,特別是對車輛,使電動車用戶成為弱勢群體，危險的行人。起草新的國家電動車標準時電動車的安全問題是重點考慮的,需要修改和激烈的爭論。</p><p>　　當電動自行車提供尾部排氣管零排放,75%的煤在中國，燃煤會排放污

64、染(櫻桃2006)。這個結果在增加,尤其是某些污染物質排放二氧化硫,而這里面尤為顯著的是在中國的城市里。其他污染物很低,與替代模式相比(櫻桃2006)。在中國，鉛蓄電池生產(chǎn)和回收帶來嚴重的健康影響。因為惡劣的生產(chǎn)和資源回收工作在領導電池行業(yè),30-70%電池中的鉛消失在環(huán)境中。</p><p><b>　　中國電動車工業(yè)</b></p><p>　　中國電動車產(chǎn)業(yè)以最

65、小限度的政府財政支持和工業(yè)監(jiān)視、已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為全球最大的電動車生產(chǎn)者。大多數(shù)生產(chǎn)商年產(chǎn)一到五萬電動車,但有六家公司,年生產(chǎn)20萬電動車。</p><p>　　原因之一,是因為廣大企業(yè)在這產(chǎn)業(yè)組成部分技術成熟,網(wǎng)絡供應商巨大,和制造成本相對較低，平均只有6%。采訪了大公司經(jīng)理，得知也有相當?shù)闹R產(chǎn)權盜版。因為低進入壁壘以及散漫的知識產(chǎn)權保護,有許多無證電動車制造商出售劣質但價格便宜電動車。幾個OEM預測,在未來的幾年

66、中,電動車數(shù)量和電動車制造商數(shù)量將會大幅下降。當前的電動車公司來自多種工業(yè)背景。一些知名企業(yè)生產(chǎn)自行車、摩托車,電器、甚至玩具車,讓電動車需求轉移了。有些公司已有60年以上,但大多數(shù)沒有開始生產(chǎn)電動車直到2000年。許多公司沒有過去的制造經(jīng)驗直接進入電動車制造業(yè)。</p><p>　　電動車快速增長的重要因素</p><p>　　電動車成功的原因在第三階段可分為三個重要的發(fā)展因素:技術、經(jīng)

67、濟、和政策。</p><p><b>　　1、工藝因素</b></p><p>　　90年代以來，電池、馬達技術改進極大地幫助擴大了電動車市場。電動車的行駛范圍,達到60公里。</p><p>　　電動車在中國銷售95%使用的是Pb-acid電池。Pb-acid電池在汽車和其他應用上已經(jīng)使用了近一個世紀,在過去的十年中的重要進展使其更適合電動車

68、。在第一階段的電動車使用的是液體酸電池電解液而不是固定電解質用于更多Pb-acid電池的今天。Liquid-type需要更多維護,如果電池或騎自行車跌倒、電解液泄漏出去,會造成財產(chǎn)損失。大多數(shù)電動車現(xiàn)在所使用的valve-regulated Pb-acid凝膠或吸收類型與玻璃墊電解質丟失,從而,除了提高能量密度,也使其密封自然，減少電解液溢出。</p><p><b>　　2、經(jīng)濟因素</b>

69、;</p><p>　　中國電動車快速增長的另一個重要原因是經(jīng)濟增長,主要因為隨著收入水平的增長，汽油價格的上升，而電動車技術的成本卻在降低，這就導致了越來越多的人選擇電動車。</p><p>　　在過去的十年里，中國的經(jīng)濟快速增長，人均收入也隨之快速增長。從1997年到2004年,人均可支配收入增加82%。</p><p>　　在過去的6年燃油價格持續(xù)上升。汽油價

70、格在上海自2002年以來增加了45%,從3.9 到0.56美元/升(不含通貨膨脹)。消費者購買決策都是敏感的，燃料成本的增加因為它更強烈的需求。隨著油價上漲、電力價格下跌,在農(nóng)村地區(qū)，這個價格降低是由于中央政府在電力上進行重大投資，在全國建設農(nóng)村基礎設施。在此之前,電在農(nóng)村地區(qū)價格比市區(qū)高50%。這價格下降結合增長的收入使農(nóng)村電動車市場擴大迅速.一個電動車公司估計在2005年的農(nóng)村消費者占20%。</p><p>

71、;<b>　　3、政策因素</b></p><p>　　在過去的十多年來，中國迅速城市化(農(nóng)村人口向城市大量流動),這是社會的產(chǎn)物,經(jīng)濟和政治的變化,也是是電動車增長另外一個因素。城市化已導致城市比低成本周邊住宅需求的郊野的交通更加擁擠。在大多數(shù)城市，由于公共交通服務擁擠不堪,緩慢的擁堵,也是電動車普及的原因。公共汽車還固有的路線，從起始點到目的地。由于旅行長度延伸和家庭需求快捷、輕松,承載

72、模式，傳統(tǒng)的自行車也變得越來越不適合。調查結果表明,電動車用戶正經(jīng)歷比自行車更大范圍和更少的旅行時間。旅行平均長度和頻率高于10% - 20%自行車;平均操作速度高上海和昆明31-35%。</p><p><b>　　結論</b></p><p>　　電動車行業(yè)盡管在80年代和90年代早期掙扎了兩次,直到90年代晚期才有成長的經(jīng)驗。到現(xiàn)在的由于組合的經(jīng)濟,技術、政治因

73、素,總結了如下:</p><p>　　1。在1990年代晚期，電動車技術,特別是電機、電池、有顯著的提高。簡單的技術供應商,猶如一幅巨大以及薄弱的IP的保護使各國電動車制造商進入產(chǎn)業(yè),加快競爭和價格下降。</p><p>　　2。由于國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭收入和花在交通上的比例均有所上升很大。</p><p>　　3。電動車物價下跌了,汽油價格上漲和電力價格在

74、農(nóng)村地區(qū)下降使電動車更有競爭力,替代汽油燃料的摩托車和汽車。</p><p>　　4。國家和地方政府政策出于能源和空氣質量問題為電動車增長創(chuàng)造了有利的條件，大城市的中心禁止汽油動力摩托車。</p><p>　　5。國家電動車標準,以獲得和靈活創(chuàng)造了豐富的指導方針機會創(chuàng)造電動車s制造商吸引更多的用戶,即scooter-style電動車。</p><p>　　6。由于城

75、市化進程中,城市形態(tài)的變化，表現(xiàn)為交通方式擁擠的增加。而消費者需要的是旅行時間的減少和旅行長度的增加，這使旅行很難。</p><p><b>　　建議</b></p><p>　　在初期階段，電動車的許多負面影響可以通過技術改進(特別是越來越多的高級電池技術)進行減輕,改善交通運營策略設計、性能指標和實施規(guī)格。鼓勵電動車和自行車的發(fā)展使用，減少汽車的數(shù)量，才是正確的方

76、向。政府和用戶需要解決電動車制作、使用和技術方面的問題，而不是禁止電動車產(chǎn)業(yè)。這可能使這個模式在未來得到更好的發(fā)展,能顯著的影響交通系統(tǒng)和模式的選擇。</p><p>　　展望未來,技術分析顯示中國將新增加4.5億的自行車用戶,2200萬電動車用戶。在小城市和農(nóng)村,電動車比例將上升，最終取代自行車。中國的經(jīng)驗也對其他發(fā)展中國家(例如。印度、越南),越來越多的城市交通問題，有涓滴效應。隨著未來科技的演化和趨勢，在中