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1、investmentresearchThisrepthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE15.UBSdoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayh

2、aveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.??GlobalResearch23June2019DiscountBrokersSnowballschance:Estimatesviewedasunreal

3、isticgivenenvironmentHowcheaparethesestocksAdifficultenvironmentgetswseexpenseflexibilitytobetestedThediscountbrokerswerealreadyfacingadifficultenvironmentasinvestyieldseekingfcashequivalentshadlimiteddepositgrowthnowthe

4、likelihoodofinterestratecutsseemstobeincreasing(basedontheFFfwdcurve).Thissuggestspressureonassetyieldswillincreaseoverthecomingquarterswithverylittleroomfoffsettinglowerdepositcostsduetoabsolutelowlevelsofdepositcosts(i

5、esub50bps).Thisleavesexpenseflexibilityastheprimarylevermanagementhastopullbutitisunclearhowaggressivefirmswillbegiventhecompetitiveenvironment.MultipleshavecompressedbutInvestsviewconsestimatesastoohighFromourconversati

6、onswithinvestsbuysideestimatesseemtobe1015%belowsellsideconsensus.Itisoursensethatourupdatednumbersareclosertoinvestestimatesbasedonour2020estimatesdiscountbrokermultipleshavenotcompressedmuchvsacouplemonthsago(whenestim

7、ateswereviewedasmereasonable).Therefewedonotbelievethestocksareascheapastheyappear.Meoverifconsensusisslowtomovelowerthereisincreasedriskofvaluetraps.LoweringestimatesPTsfthegroupThediscountbrokersfacemountingenvironment

8、alheadwindsastheoutlookflowerSTratesshouldweighonearningsestimates.Weareloweringouraverage20192020estimatesby4%12%respectively.Notablywearegivingsomeexpensecreditinourestimatesalthoughwebelievetherearelimitstohowmuchmana

9、gementteamsarewillingtocut.NotablyweexpectAMTDcouldbemostaggressiveincuttingcostswhichisonereasonwhywebelievethatstockcanbearelativeoutperfmer.RemaincautiousonthegroupseelimitedNTsupptpositivecatalystsWeremaincautiousont

10、hediscountbrokersgiventheenvironmentalpressureoflowerSTyieldswithlimitedfundingcostrelief.FurtherwedonotexpectthediscountbrokerstoreratehigherdespitethelowerearningspowerlikelyintheNTbecausethestocksdidnotseepositivevalu

11、ationinflectionuntilthetapertantrum(wheninvestshadlineofsighttohigherSTrates).Therefewebelievemultipleexpansion(adjustingflagstoestimaterevisions)isstillalongwayoff.EquitiesAmericasDiversifiedFinancialBrennanHawkenCPAAna

12、lystbrennan.hawken@12127139439AdamQ.BeattyCFAAnalystadam.beatty@12127132481??GlobalResearch23June2019DiscountBrokers23June2019??3TDAmeritradeHoldingCpBetterpositionedtoweatherthestmPerceptionthatAMTDmeexposedtocyclicalri

13、sksisoverdoneAMTDhasahighqualityfranchisethatwebelieveiswellpositionedtooutperfmpeersinthecurrentenvironmentdueitsgreaterexposuretotradinglesserrelianceonrates.DespiteapervasiveviewthatAMTDisatthemostriskofEPScutsinadown

14、turnourstressedanalysisfromlastfall(seenotehere)showedthatisnottrue.SpecificallywefinditunlikelythatthereisariskofcommissioncutsinadecliningmarketAMTDhashisticallyseenDARTsincreaseindecliningmarkets(evenin08–09befethinks

15、wim).LoweringCY2019CY2020EPSestimatesWeareloweringourcalendar2019EPSestimateby20cto$3.90ourcalendar2020EPSestimateby55cto$3.95duetothefwardcurvenowreflecting3FFcutsoverthenext12months.WeestimateoneFFcutincalendar3Q4Qthis

16、yearoneinthebeginningofCY2020.Valuation:loweringpricetargetOurnew$56pricetargetassumesaroughly14xmultiple(unchanged)onourCY2020EPSest.Weareusing14xbecauseitisroughlyequivalenttowhereAMTDtradedbefethetapertantrum(in2013)w

17、henratesexpectationsbecamemehawkish.AMTDhasahighqualityfranchisethatwebelieveiswellpositionedtooutperfmpeersinthecurrentenvironmentdueitsgreaterexposuretotradinglesserrelianceonrates.EquitiesAmericasDiversifiedFinancial1

18、2monthratingBuy12mpricetargetUS$56.00Pri:US$65.00Pri:US$65.00PriceUS$49.92RIC:AMTD.OBBG:AMTDUSTradingdatakeymetrics52wkrangeUS$60.7545.87Marketcap.US$28.0bnSharesos560m(COM)Freefloat42%Avg.dailyvolume(000)2589Avg.dailyva

19、lue(m)US$133.8Commonshequity(0919E)US$8.62bnPBV(0919E)3.2xdebtEBITDA(0919E)0.2xEPS(UBSdiluted)(US$)0919EFromTo%chCons.Q11.091.0901.11Q20.930.9300.93Q3E0.980.98NM0.96Q4E1.020.9751.000919E4.023.9714.000920E4.383.89114.2609

20、21E4.834.22124.48BrennanHawkenCPAAnalystbrennan.hawken@12127139439AdamQ.BeattyCFAAnalystadam.beatty@12127132481Highlights(US$m)0916091709180919E0920E0921E0922E0923ERevenues3325.03677.05452.05887.75789.06012.26368.66735.8

21、EBIT(UBS)1317.01633.02583.03083.92966.03140.53389.13643.8earnings(UBS)809.0976.01913.02220.22113.52244.42430.82621.8EPS(UBSdiluted)(US$)1.521.843.363.973.894.224.645.07DPS(US$)0.680.720.841.201.401.601.802.00(debt)cash38

22、.0(1083.0)251.0(550.7)(188.3)490.61321.22180.8Profitabilityvaluation0916091709180919E0920E0921E0922E0923EEBITmargin%39.644.447.452.451.252.253.254.1ROIC(EBIT)%27.024.532.136.532.334.337.039.7EVEBITDA(ce)x12.012.710.98.58

23、.78.17.36.6PE(UBSdiluted)x20.822.516.612.612.811.810.89.8EquityFCF(UBS)yield%4.75.37.08.98.59.09.710.3dividendyield%2.21.71.52.42.83.23.64.0Source:CompanyaccountsThomsonReutersUBSestimates.UBSadjustedEPSisstatedbefegoodw

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