[雙語翻譯]工程造價(jià)建筑合同外文翻譯--施工合同中的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估（原文）

1、 Procedia Engineering 122 ( 2015 ) 120 – 128 1877-7058 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-n

2、d/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Operational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineering - meeting of EURO working group and 15th German-Lithuanian-Polish colloqu

3、ium doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2015.10.015 ScienceDirectAvailable online at www.sciencedirect.comOperational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineering - EURO working group meeting and 15th German-Lithuanian-

4、Polish colloquium (ORSDCE 2015) Financial risk estimation in construction contracts Agnieszka Dziadosza, Andrzej Tomczykb, Oleg Kaplińskic a Institute of Structural Engineering, Poznan Univesity of Technology bCommerci

5、al enterprise with headquarters in Poznań c Facutly of Architecture (IAP), Poznan Univesity of Technology Abstract Risk, as a factor adversely affecting the project, is taken into account as early as at the first stag

6、e of the investment process when the tender is won for a contract. The risk level, identified for a particular construction contract, is a serious factor influencing the decision about accepting the contract or not. Th

7、e key issue is proper identification of contract risk. The risk factors which have a significant impact on the success of the project, and are most common ones, are then analyzed. The method of verification depends on

8、the company's experience in the construction industry. The task of the article is to present the results of studies focused on separating and determining the frequency of financial risk factors in construction proj

9、ects and their impact on project implementation. We have analyzed 30 construction projects (office buildings, production halls, educational buildings, demolition works, etc.) completed in north-western Poland. The deg

10、ree of risk (planned and real) for the contract was set as a percentage in relation to the size of contract (costs in million PLN). The aim of the study was to verify the existence of relationship between the kind of s

11、tructure, the size of contract, and the scope and degree of risk. Statistical approach has been used. This study is a prelude to determining the contract risks identification procedure (i.e., estimating reserves to be

12、used in unforeseen circumstances) so that the company could be competitive, and the price offer to be provided to investors could be advantageous. Click here and insert your abstract text. © 2015 The Authors. Pub

13、lished by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Operational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineering - meeting of EURO working group and 15th German-Lithuani

14、an-Polish colloquium. Keywords: construction contracts, risk management, financial risk, decision-making process in construction project. * Corresponding author. Tel.: +0-000-000-0000 ; fax: +0-000-000-0000 . E-mail add

15、ress: Agnieszka.Dziadosz@put.poznan.pl © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review un

16、der responsibility of the organizing committee of the Operational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineering - meeting of EURO working group and 15th German-Lithuanian-Polish colloquium122 Agnieszka Dzia

17、dosz et al. / Procedia Engineering 122 ( 2015 ) 120 – 128 Here, risk can be regarded as a commodity which has its price. A number of factors which may affect the price can be excluded from the agreement. You can

18、 also agree with investors that including risks in the cost is an unnecessary multiplication of costs and an unnecessary burden on the budget of the project. It concerns cases where risks may not occur at all or the oc

19、currence of risks can be reduced in collaboration with the investor. The most common types of contracts are: a lump sum contract, a quantity survey contract, and GMP (guaranteed maximum price) contract. The first is use

20、d quite often by private investors and almost always by the public investors. In principle, the contractor bears all the risks in this type of agreement and, therefore, the contractor should include everything in the o

21、ffer. It is quite difficult because not everything can be predicted. Firstly, it results in price increase since the contractor must, after all, provide additional financial resources to cover the unexpected costs and,

22、 secondly, if this is not done problems with liquidity during the execution of the contract may occur. In theory, such problems do not concern investors, but only apparently. When there are problems with project finan

23、cing, the contractor seeks a remedy, using different alternative plans. Usually, quality suffers; often the deadline has to be shifted. Despite the use of penalties against the contractor, losses associated with the su

24、bsequent completion of investments are difficult to estimate and disproportionate to the penalties imposed, often larger than may seem from the penalties. A court settlement as an option is not always profitable. Court

25、 proceedings may be long, and the outcome uncertain. In a contract based on unit prices, serious risks associated with the quantities of materials and labour are marginal. It greatly facilitates submitting the offer an

26、d minimizes the risks. Errors associated with the bill of quantities occur in a half the studied contracts. In 30 analyzed cases, errors occurred in 16 (representing 53.3%, while for 29 contracts, it was 51.52%). The l

27、east risks are associated with a GMP contract. There, working according to an open-book principle, the contractor and the investor collaborate in order to optimize costs and jointly select subcontractors. Risk in a cons

28、truction project 3.Risk, or measurable part of uncertainty, should be treated as an opportunity to deviate from the desired level. Therefore, positive deviation (a chance) and negative (a loss) must be taken into accou

29、nt. Raftery [22] says: Risk and uncertainty characterize situations where the actual outcome of a particular event or activity is likely to deviate from the estimate of forecast value The literature quotes many divisi

30、ons and classifications of risk factors, such as: according to character, impact, origin, categories of decisions taken to achieve specific objectives, risk measures, etc. [1-32]. A thorough presentation of categories

31、risk was given in [24-26]. The basic classification of random factors includes the following groups: financial risk, technological risk, economic risk, risk of the organization, management risk, time-span risk, and leg

32、al risk. Each project may be analyzed according to the so-called check list. However, given the unique nature of the projects, variety of conditions of work execution, a check list should be flexible, allowing for spec

33、ification of risk factors in relation to the investment. Construction companies usually analyze most common risk factors, and those that have major impact on the implementation of work. Verification methods depend on t

34、he experience of companies in the construction industry. The presented studies concern the previously scheduled in-groups and risk factors. The aim of the analysis is to identify the factors with the biggest impact on

35、implementation of the contract. An attempt to demonstrate their dependence on the selected parameters, such as size of the contract has been made. It is worth mentioning that there have been similar thematic studies,

36、carried out on the basis of questionnaire surveys in the US, UK, Hong Kong, China, devoted to the identification and prioritization of risk factors and risk evaluation techniques [7,10,12, 13, 15, 28 ]. Research methodo

37、logy 4.Thirty (2008-2013) construction projects were analyzed in terms of likelihood of risk (mainly large structures, such as: halls, industrial plants, teaching halls, warehouses, etc.). The aim of the research was t

38、o identify main risk factors and classify them into the general groups. The research was based on information from contract managers; the resulting data accounted for both planned and real risk (expressed in percentage

39、 units relative to the value of contract). These analyzes are the first step towards developing a risk assessment procedure for contracts in relation to the adopted endogenous variables (e.g. time of execution, contrac