分時(shí)電價(jià)下電蓄熱供熱系統(tǒng)的負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)及經(jīng)濟(jì)性決策分析.pdf

1、重慶大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文分時(shí)電價(jià)下電蓄熱供熱系統(tǒng)的負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)及經(jīng)濟(jì)性決策分析姓名：張晉文申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：工程熱物理指導(dǎo)教師：張新銘20050301重慶大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文英文摘要IIABSTRACTTheelectricpowerstagetechniqueisanimptanttechnicaltooltoremovethepeakloadfillthevalleythistoinsureeconomicalopreationofele

2、ctric.therearetwokindsofcoldthermalenergystageequipments.Theuseofthemcanoptimizeresourcearrangementprotectecologicalenvironment.Theelectricthermalenergystageisaprimaryapplicationoftheelectrictechnologyofpowerstage.Ithasi

3、mpotantsignificancetodotheeconomicaldecisionmakinganalysisofit.Theloadpredictingisanessentialcomponentintheeconomicdecisionmakinganalysis.InthepaperANNmethodhasintroduced.Manyinfluncefactstothethermalweretakenintoconside

4、ration.ABPshttermmodelofloadpredictionwasestablished.ConsideringtheproblemsofconvergingoperatingofBPmoodelGAmethodwasusedtoamenditsvalueofweignthresholdinaccountofsignatitgpromblemthecapabilityoftwoarthmeticinMATLABweret

5、ested.Bysumminguptheresultsattainedamodelofshttermwasadvancedcanmeprecislypredictthethermalloadmesimpleinoperationconvergencequiker.Meanwhilethepaperhasprovidedanexampleofthesmalltownattainedasetofloadcurveofactualpredic

6、ting.Ananalysisonreasonsoferrwasdiscussedindetail.Basedonloadpredicationthepaperappliedthebasicprincipleofanalyzingmethodoftechnicaleconomyestablishedatargetfunctionofelectricsystemofthermalenergystagewhichincludedtheope

7、ratingiginalconsumptioninaccdancewiththetimesharinggepolicyofourcountry.introducingthestagerateinthefunctiontransfmedtargetfunctiontoafunctionofthermalstagerate.Byusingofanexamplethemethodproposedabovewasfullyconfirmedth

8、ebestthermalstageratefasmalltown.Theinfluenceontheeconomicaloperationoftheelectricthemalstagesystemtheratioofpeaktovalleypowerwasalsodicussed.Thedatedetaileddeterminasticanalysiswasproposed.Keywds:TimesharinggeElectricth