天津市需水量預(yù)測及水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展策略研究

1、天津大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文天津市需水量預(yù)測及水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展策略研究姓名：常淑玲申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：環(huán)境科學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：尤學(xué)一20070601ABSTRACTNowadaysthefreshwaterresourcesarequitelimitedallovertheworldWiththeaccelerationofpopulation，theimprovementofthepeople’Slivingstandardsandthedev

2、elopmentofeconomytherapidincreaseofwaterdemandleadtoseriouscontradictionbetweenthesupplyanddemandThecrisisofwaterresourceshasbecomeoneofthegreatestconcernsforstatesmenandscholarsaroundtheworldWatershortageisagreatproblem

3、forchina，tooTianjinseverelysufferstheshortageofwaterresourcesThescarcityofwaterhashinderedtheeconomicdevelopment’111echaracteristicandprimaryproblemsofwaterresourcesofTianjinarediscussedinthisdissertationAccordingtothefu

4、nctionofwaterresourcesutilization，thecitywaterdemandsystemisdividedintofoursubsystems，’whichcorrespondtothewaterdemandoftheresidentliving，primaryindustryindustryandentironmentThesesystemshaveinteractionandrestrictionByad

5、optingtheeconomicproductionvalueperpersonandthenumberofpersonemployed，thewaterdemandofpertenthousandoutcomesispredictedbythemodelofmultiplereTheigressionsdynamicwaterdemandmodelSfirstlyestablishedforTianjinBycarefullycom

6、paringtheresultsofdifferentmodels，thedynamicmodelischosentOpredictthewaterdemandofTianjinAccordingtothismodel，thewaterdemandofTianjinis2675billionm3intheyearof2020Inthisprediction，themostpartsofwaterareconsumedbymeprimar

7、yindustry，butthelargestwaterconsumerwillbereplacedbytheindustryinthecomingfewyearsSomemajorfactors，suchaswaterprice，industrystructure，populationandprecipitation，influenceseverelythedemandofwaterBycarefullybalancingthesef

8、ourfactors，thestrategyofsustainableutilizationforwaterresourcesandthetheoryofsustainabledevelopmentofTianjineconomyarepresentedAtthesametime，wepredictthatthemaxoftotaldemandwater10ftheprimaryindustryandindustryis2854bill

9、ionm5byLogisticmodelWaterdemandisverynecessaryforplanningthecitydevelopmentandarrangingwatersupplyThepredictionmodelpresentedhereestablishesagoodtheoreticalbasisforbuildingwatersavingsocietyandoffersusefulreferencetoothe