道橋外文翻譯--發(fā)展中國家公路bot方案的經(jīng)濟評價

1、<p><b>　　附錄1 英語翻譯</b></p><p>　　FINANCIAL EVALUATION OF ROAD PROJECTS UNDER BOT SCHEME IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES</p><p><b>　　ABSTRACT</b></p><p>　　The pas

2、t decade has witnessed many developing countries opening up their economy resulting in greater private sector participation in road infrastructure projects. These countries traditionally followed economic evaluation for

3、the project appraisal. The economic evaluation includes intangible costs and benefits of the project which do not appear in cash flow statement. Hence the economic evaluation cannot indicate the financial performance of

4、a project. Therefore, financial evaluation is importa</p><p>　　INTRODUCTION</p><p>　　Studies show that transport generates growth by facilitating trade, both nationally and internationally, and

5、by increasing access to health and education facilities as well as local and national amenities. At the macroeconomic level, cross-country studies have confirmed that investment in transport raises growth by increasing t

6、he social return to private investment. On the other hand, at the microeconomic level, transport improvements directly lower agricultural input prices and hence production</p><p>　　Since the amount of resour

7、ces, going into the transportation projects is very high; these projects need to be evaluated in comparison with other infrastructure projects as well as among themselves. The whole process of project evaluation is known

8、 as project appraisal. One of the important parts, of project appraisal report is the economic evaluation. The economic analysis compares alternatives, which, helps planners choose the best way to accomplish their object

9、ives4. The most widely accepted pa</p><p>　　Financial Evaluation in Context of Developing Countries</p><p>　　The transport infrastructure projects forms the basis of country's economic growt

10、h and hence government needs to exercise control over them, but the investment requirements to fulfill the demand is far too large compared to what governments could provide. Due to this, the transportation sector had se

11、en commercialization since last few decades. Since, the incentive for private players to step into the road sector is the return on investment; the financial analysis becomes extremely important. The</p><p>

12、　　The analysis of projects is necessarily based on uncertain future events and involves implicit or explicit probability judgments. There is considerable uncertainty in the capital cost estimates. It is not unusual that

13、road designs, on which the cost estimates are based, may be changed during construction. This necessitates sensitivity or switching value analysis to minimize risk7. The risk analysis gives critical variables and assesse

14、s how likely deviations are, and identifies the factors that a</p><p>　　the project.</p><p>　　In developed nations, the models to evaluate the financial performance of Build Operate and Transfer

15、 (BOT) projects already exist. In UK Net Present Value (NPV) of the cashflows is calculated under different scenarios as a measure of financial performance of the BOT projects8. However, in France Internal Rate of Return

16、 (IRR) is also used along with NPV for financial analysis of the project9. Since, infrastructure projects are quite different from industrial projects; the government laws related </p><p>　　and tax are also

17、different. Such models have to be developed keeping in view the laws affecting the cashflows of the project. But in developing countries like India, use of such models is very rare. The paper discusses financial evaluati

18、on of BOT projects in developing countries especially India where public sector is slowly opening up for private players. Over the years, the government policies in developing countries like India have changed to promote

19、 private sector involvement. For example, i</p><p>　　projects get tax benefit under section 80 (IA) for eight years in a row. They are also allowed to provide depreciation using “sinking fund” method and car

20、ry forward their operating losses during first eight years of operation. Another important issue pertaining to BOT project is estimation of traffic and toll rates. For instance, in India, two wheelers are toll free in mo

21、st of the BOT projects. However; they constitute nearly</p><p>　　50% of the total traffic volume in many instances. This becomes even more critical keeping in consideration the limited data available for tra

22、ffic projections and standard of “willingness to pay” in developing countries. This necessitates the sensitivity and scenario analysis of volume of traffic and toll rates. This paper presents a financial evaluation model

23、 using simulation methodology addressing the abovementioned issues. The working of the model is demonstrated through a case study.</p><p>　　THE BOT SCHEME</p><p>　　Numerous forms of private part

24、icipation have been experimented with an unequal record of success10. The Build Operate and Transfer (BOT), is the most familiar form, whereby the project is developed by the private sector. It takes the responsibility f

25、or funding, designing, building and operating the facility for sufficient period, to service and repay the debt raised, then control is transferred back to public sector11. </p><p>　　The main parties involve

26、d in BOT project can be broadly divided into five categories: Granting agency,Concessionaire or Promoter or SPV (special purpose vehicle), Financiers, Consultants & Contractors and Road users. The granting agency pro

27、vides the contract to the concessionaire to design, built and operate the facility. In return, the concessionaire collects the toll from road users for a specified time called concession period. The revenues produced are

28、 used to payback the financiers.</p><p>　　Since, infrastructure projects are capital intensive, financing of funds is one of the important issues. Private financing and raising resources for such projects is

29、 a challenging task for the private sector. The traditional sources of funds for BOT projects are Debt and Equity12. Financial institutions in India favor low Debt/Equity ratio, and for BOT projects in India, this ratio

30、usually varies in the range of 1.5 to 2.3. An important feature is the construction period since, in public sector </p><p>　　would reduce the profitability of the project and increase the interest commitment

31、 on debt. In addition, there is an incentive to finish construction ahead of time and avail the maximum benefit by operating and collecting tolls for a longer duration of time12. Another relevant issue pertaining to BOT

32、projects is toll charges since, user charges forms the major part of revenues collected. The determination of the toll rates demands due consideration from granting agency as well as from concession</p><p>　

33、　Financial Evaluation</p><p>　　The financial analysis consists in comparing revenue and expenses recorded by the concerned economic agents in each project alternative (if relevant) and in working out the cor

34、responding financial return ratios. The process of financial evaluation consists of estimation of cash flow and calculation of performancemeasuring factors.</p><p>　　The cash flow statement presents cash inf

35、lows and outflows for the entire duration of the project, i.e. the concession period. The cash flow takes into consideration, the inflows and outflows from the real sphere(i.e. revenues from toll and outflows for constru

36、ction, operation and maintenance costs) and from the financial sphere (inflow of capital from equity, and outflows for dividends and debt service). A wide range of criteria are applied to cash flows to judge their worth.

37、 Discounted cash fl</p><p>　　rate (IRR). Therefore, Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) is used where reinvestment rate is given as an input. The use of non DCF techniques like ‘payback period’ and ‘a(chǎn)cco

38、unting rate of return’ have become rare since time duration of infrastructure projects in very large and these techniques do not consider the time value of money.</p><p>　　In a typical BOT project, there are

39、 tremendous risks and uncertainties for both granting agency as well as the concessionaire, which include political, institutional, financial, environmental and technical risks. Therefore, identification and allocation o

40、f risks are essential. All these risks directly or indirectly affect the cash flow statement of the project and therefore risk analysis for critical parameters like construction cost, maintenance cost, operation cost, tr

41、affic volume and toll rev</p><p>　　Acceptance Criterion</p><p>　　The projects are accepted or rejected financially based on their NPV or IRR. The general acceptance criteria for BOT projects in

42、India are:</p><p>　　1. NPV should be positive for discount rate of 17-18%. This rate takes into account the usual cost of capital of about 13-15% and approximately 4% as risk premium.</p><p>　　2

43、. In the present economic scenario, project with IRR in the range of 18-23% is acceptable.</p><p>　　FINANCIAL MODEL</p><p>　　The BOT projects are high-risk projects, and behave differently when

44、compared to industrial projects. The risks in such projects are very high in the initial stages; the gestation period is also quite long and hence its takes a long time for a project to show net positive cash flow. To st

45、udy the dynamic behavior of such projects, financial analysts rely on mathematical models. Experiments with different scenarios are conducted on the model in order to draw inferences and hence measure the risk i</p>

46、;<p>　　Input to Model</p><p>　　The basic input to the simulation model for BOT projects can be broadly divided into three categories namely policy parameters, macro-economic indicators and stochastic

47、input variables.</p><p>　　Policy Parameters</p><p>　　These are crucial decision variables and under total control of the granting agency, usually the government. The important policy variables i

48、nclude construction period, concession period and the mode wise toll rates. Since, toll structure is fed as an input the model can accommodate any desired combination of toll rates forvarious modes.</p><p>

49、;　　Macro-Economic Indicators</p><p>　　The important feature of these variables is that they are governed by the situation prevailing in the country and are not under the control of the decision makers invest

50、ing in the BOT project. The variables under this head with respect to BOT projects comprise of interest rate, discount rate, inflation rate and debt-equity ratio.</p><p>　　Stochastic Input Variables</p>

51、;<p>　　The variable that cannot be determined accurately and are hence uncertain comes, under this class of variables. For BOT projects, this class contains construction, maintenance and operation costs and the nu

52、mber of vehicles using the facility.</p><p>　　Assumptions</p><p>　　The basic assumption in the use of simulation model for BOT projects are the following:</p><p>　　1. Repayment of d

53、ebt and interest would start only after one year of operation (moratorium period).</p><p>　　2. All costs and revenues are discounted using a common discount rate.</p><p>　　3. Annual maintenance

54、cost is taken as a percentage of construction cost for the first year of operation and is assumed to increase at the inflation rate for subsequent years.</p><p>　　發(fā)展中國家公路BOT方案的經(jīng)濟評價</p><p><

55、b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　過去十年間許多發(fā)展中國家開放經(jīng)濟，更多的私營部門參與到公路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目中來。這些國家對項目評估采取傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟評估，包括無形成本評估和現(xiàn)金流動表中未能顯示的項目的優(yōu)越性評估，所以經(jīng)濟評估不能反映項目的財政業(yè)績。因此財務評估在BOT方案的公路項目私營化和商業(yè)化中非常重要。這些方法在發(fā)達國家中很常見，但在發(fā)展中國家其融資手段，稅率和記賬技術(shù)都截然不同。因此，為

56、審核項目的財政業(yè)績和估計包括的風險，良好的財務模型是必須的。本論文為BOT項目提供一項仿真財務模型。該模型將公路長度，交通施工的成本和通行收費考慮在內(nèi)，進行財務評估，并單獨計算項目的內(nèi)部收益率（IRR）和純現(xiàn)值（NPV）。此外，該模型對關(guān)鍵的項目參量執(zhí)行靈敏度分析和方案分析。Pune（印度）一個40km的公路擴建項目作為本論文的案例分析，來演示仿真模型的運行。該模型提供財務狀況良好的項目和內(nèi)部收益率（IRR）。靈敏度分析表明交通容量和通

57、行收費為此項目財政業(yè)績最靈敏的參量。</p><p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　研究表明通過便利國內(nèi)和國際貿(mào)易、提高醫(yī)療、教育設(shè)施以及地方和國家公共設(shè)施的利用交通運輸不斷發(fā)展。一方面，從宏觀經(jīng)濟水平來看，跨國研究已證實通過私人投資的社會收益人們對交通運輸?shù)耐顿Y也在增長。另一方面，從微觀經(jīng)濟水平來看，交通運輸?shù)母倪M直接降低農(nóng)業(yè)投入價格和生產(chǎn)成本，提高

58、市場利用率，和產(chǎn)出多樣化，間接便利農(nóng)村非農(nóng)經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。交通運輸?shù)闹匾圆]有因國家工業(yè)化而消失。1980年至1992年間，國際商品貿(mào)易平均每年增長4.9%。20世紀80年代之前，發(fā)展中國家的交通運輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施主要由國營部門經(jīng)營，提供一切運輸方式。在交通運輸行業(yè)中，鐵路通常為國營部門壟斷，而空運和海運也通常屬國營部門。與之相比，公路和內(nèi)陸水運由私營部門占主導地位。</p><p>　　由于資源有限，實施交通運輸項目的

59、費用很高，這些項目必須經(jīng)過與其它基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目評估比較后方可實施，這一全過程叫做項目評估。項目評估報告的一個重要部分是經(jīng)濟評估。經(jīng)濟分析通過比較備選方案，幫助規(guī)劃人選擇實現(xiàn)目標的最佳方案。描述項目經(jīng)濟業(yè)績最常用的參量是效益成本比率和純現(xiàn)值。但是有些因素與經(jīng)濟業(yè)績相關(guān)而效益成本比率又無法反映，所以世界銀行開發(fā)了一種高級的工程經(jīng)濟分析工具來進行分析。自交通運輸項目商業(yè)化以來，財務評估也是評估報告的一個重要部分。</p><

60、p>　　發(fā)展中國家的財務評估</p><p>　　交通運輸設(shè)施項目是一個國家經(jīng)濟增長的基礎(chǔ)，因此政府須有掌控權(quán)，但為滿足需求而需要的投資額很大，只靠政府提供是不夠的。鑒于這個原因，在過去的幾十年間交通運輸部門已經(jīng)商業(yè)化。因為投資回收是吸引私營者投資公路部門的激勵因素，所以財務分析就相當重要，因為項目周期的財務分析使投資者可以預計回收的風險和項目盈利期限。</p><p>　　項目分析

61、必須建立在變化莫測的未來可能發(fā)生的事件的基礎(chǔ)上，包括潛在的或明顯的各種可能性判斷。投資費用估計有很大的不確定性。公路設(shè)計是造價估算的前提，而公路設(shè)計可能在施工過程中改變，這種情況也不少見，因此為降低風險進行靈敏度和改變的價值分析成為必然。風險分析至關(guān)重要，它可以使投資者了解偏差如何，確定造成項目最大風險的因素。</p><p>　　發(fā)達國家評估建造-運行-轉(zhuǎn)讓（BOT）的財務業(yè)績的模型已經(jīng)存在。在英國資金流動的純

62、現(xiàn)值是根據(jù)不同方案計算，以確定BOT項目的財務業(yè)績。而在法國內(nèi)部收益率和純現(xiàn)值一起作為項目的財務業(yè)績分析。因為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目和工業(yè)項目截然不同，所以政府的相關(guān)法律，比如貶值和稅收也不同，進而影響項目的資金流動，因此必須不斷開發(fā)模型適應法律。但在發(fā)展中國家比如印度這種模型的運用很少。本論文探討發(fā)展中國家特別是印度的BOT項目財務評估，在印度國營部門逐漸向私營投資者開放。多年來，發(fā)展中國家比如印度的政府政策已經(jīng)改變，鼓勵私營部門的參與，比如，

63、印度公路部門的BOT項目因（IA）第80條連續(xù)八年獲得課稅受益。他們也獲許可以通過償債基金方法提供貶值和在前八年運行中結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)營損失。與BOT項目相關(guān)的另一重要因素是交通量和通性費估算。舉例來說，在印度大部分的BOT項目中，二輪車駕駛者是不需交納通性費的，然而多數(shù)情況下此類駕駛者占交通量的50%。這導致交通運輸規(guī)劃的數(shù)據(jù)資料很有限，發(fā)展中國家“愿意付費”的標準也至關(guān)重要。因此交通量和通性費的靈敏度和方案分析就成為必然。本論文就以上問題運用

64、仿真的方法論提出一項財務評估模型，其具</p><p><b>　　BOT方案</b></p><p>　　各種形式的民間參與已經(jīng)有了數(shù)不清的成功試驗了. 建設(shè)經(jīng)營轉(zhuǎn)讓(BOT),是最常見的方式,即由私營部門發(fā)展項目. 要負責籌資、設(shè)計、建設(shè)和運營設(shè)施足夠時間,償還債務并獲得利潤,然后再轉(zhuǎn)移給政府部門運營.</p><p>　　BOT項目的主要

65、部分大致可分為五部分:機構(gòu)批準,土地所有者或推動者或SPV(特殊目的公司)、投資者、工程承包和科學道路使用者. 特許機構(gòu)提供的合同設(shè)計、建造和運營設(shè)施. 作為回報, 在一定的期限內(nèi)特許從道路使用者收取使用費. 由此產(chǎn)生的收入用來償還債務.</p><p>　　因為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目都是資金密集型項目，資金的籌集是主要問題之一。對于私營企業(yè)，私人投資并為這些項目籌集資源是一項很艱巨的任務。BOT項目資金的傳統(tǒng)來源是債務和

66、股東。在印度金融機構(gòu)比較青睞低負債/持股比例，在印度對于BOT項目，這個比例通常在1.5到2.3這個范圍內(nèi)。在公共部門項目的施工階段，拖延時間是一個很普遍的現(xiàn)象。但是在BOT項目中特許方會特別注意這個，因為任何時間的拖長都會使得利潤的減少和負債利息的增加。此外，獎勵提前完工，可以獲得最大的經(jīng)營效益和獲得更長的收費時間。對于BOT項目的另一相關(guān)問題是關(guān)于通行費，因為使用通行費是收回成本的主要形式。收費高低要求適當考慮允許代理方和被允許方。

67、征收最低收費是政府的社會理想目標。高收費同樣也許會使交通轉(zhuǎn)移到免費道路，尤其在發(fā)展中國家，在那里人們愿意付出的非常的少。</p><p><b>　　財務評價</b></p><p>　　財務分析包括對比進款和分析每個替代項目（只要有關(guān)）的有經(jīng)濟作用的有關(guān)費用記錄和算出收益率。財務評價的過程包括估計資金流動量預測制約因素的發(fā)展規(guī)律。資金流量表可以表明整個延長時期即特許

68、期工程的資金流入和流出狀況?，F(xiàn)金流量的考慮,從實際狀況的流入和流出范圍(即收費收入和建設(shè)、運行和維護費用的支出)和金融領(lǐng)域(出售股票的資金流入、還本付息和紅利的支出)。應用于資金流量的一個廣泛便準去衡量他們自己的價值?？紤]貨幣時間價值. 凈現(xiàn)值(凈現(xiàn)值)和內(nèi)部收益率(回報)的現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)技術(shù)是最廣為接受現(xiàn)金技術(shù)。在資金流動折現(xiàn)技術(shù)計算中最重要的是折現(xiàn)率應考慮項目中的資金風險，即考慮適當?shù)娘L險溢價。內(nèi)部收益率是現(xiàn)值的資金流入等于現(xiàn)值的資金

69、流出時的回報率或折現(xiàn)率，然而內(nèi)部收益率作為投資行為的一種衡量有一個缺點，因為它假設(shè)了從項目中回收的又再用去投資的資金是以同一個比率的。因此用于再投資的修正內(nèi)部收益率是作為一種投入的。像‘回報期’和‘回收計算利率’等非資金折現(xiàn)技術(shù)已經(jīng)變得稀有了，因為基礎(chǔ)項目的時間是非常長的，但這些技術(shù)并沒有考慮資金的時間價值。</p><p>　　一個典型的BOT工程對于特許方和被特許方都有有巨大的風險和不確定性, 其中包括政治、

70、體制、財政、技術(shù)和環(huán)境風險。因此，有必要確定和分擔風險。所有這些風險直接或間接地影響著項目的資金流動表，因此對主要因素像建設(shè)費用、維修費用、經(jīng)營成本、交通量及收費收入的風險分析是應該被做的。</p><p><b>　　接受標準</b></p><p>　　一個項目被接受還是被反對是基于凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率的。在印度一個BOT項目普遍接受的標準是：</p>

71、<p>　　凈現(xiàn)率因該積極地為折現(xiàn)率的17%～18%。這個速度考慮了資金成本的13%～15%和大約4%的風險溢價。</p><p>　　在目前的經(jīng)濟情況下,項目的回報率在18%至23%的幅度是可以接受的。</p><p><b>　　金融模式</b></p><p>　　BOT項目是高風險項目，并且與工業(yè)項目表現(xiàn)得不同。這些項目中在

72、初期階段風險是非常高的；建設(shè)期是一個相當長的時間，要顯示一個項目的凈資金流動就需要花更長一段時間了。金融分析師是依靠數(shù)學模型來研究這些項目的動態(tài)行為的。為了得出推論而進行的基于模型的不同方案的試驗，從而來衡量風險。因而這可能是沒有實際費用產(chǎn)生的預先操作系統(tǒng)。</p><p><b>　　模型的輸入</b></p><p>　　BOT項目輸入模擬模型的基本因素大致可分為

73、三類:政策因素,宏觀經(jīng)濟指標和隨機投入變數(shù)。</p><p><b>　　政策因素</b></p><p>　　這是由特許機構(gòu)控制和完全決定的關(guān)鍵變數(shù)，通常是政府。重要的政策變量包括建設(shè)期、特許期和明智的收費方式。因為，收費結(jié)構(gòu)是收入模式的根本，這種收入模式能為各種模式提供其所需的費率組合。</p><p><b>　　宏觀經(jīng)濟指標&

74、lt;/b></p><p>　　這種因素的一個重要特征是，它們是由該國的局勢控制而不是由BOT項目的投資決策者控制的。在這一因素主導下的BOT項目的變數(shù)包括利率、折現(xiàn)率、通貨膨脹和負債率。 </p><p><b>　　隨機投入變數(shù)</b></p><p>　　不能被正確確定的和不能確定是否會出現(xiàn)的變數(shù)都屬于這一類型的變數(shù)。對于BOT項

75、目，這類型的變數(shù)包括建設(shè)、維修和營運費用以及使用設(shè)施的車輛數(shù)量。</p><p><b>　　假設(shè)</b></p><p>　　用于BOT項目模擬模型的基本假設(shè)如下：</p><p>　　運營后一年才開始償還債務和利息（暫停期）。</p><p>　　所有費用和收入按共同的折現(xiàn)率折現(xiàn)使用。</p><