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1、<p><b> ?、?外文翻譯</b></p><p><b>  外文翻譯之一:</b></p><p>  Newer canons of common-stock investment</p><p>  Authors: Benjamin·Graham</p><p>

2、  Nationality: USA</p><p>  Source: Security analysis</p><p>  Released time and page numbers:1934 366——375頁(yè)</p><p>  The trend of earnings,although most dangerous as a sole basis

3、for selection,may prove a useful indication of investment merit. If this approach is a sound one, there may be formulated an acceptable canon of common-stock investment, containing the following elements:</p><

4、p>  1. Investment is conceived as a group operation, in which diversification of risk is depended upon to yield a favorable average result.</p><p>  2. The individual issues are selected by means of quali

5、tative and quantitative tests corresponding to those employed in the choice of fixed-value investments.</p><p>  3. A greater effort is made, than in the case of bond selection, to determine the future outlo

6、ok of the issues considered.</p><p>  Secular Expansion as Basis. May the ownership of a carefully selected, diversified group of common stocks, purchased at reasonable prices, be characterized as a sound in

7、vestment policy? An affirmativeanswer may be developed from any one of three different kinds ofassumptions relating to the future of American business and the policyof selection that is followed. The first will posit tha

8、t certain basic andlong-established elements in this country’s economic experience may stillbe counted upon. Th</p><p>  If these fundamental conditions still obtain, then common stocks with suitable exhibit

9、s should on the whole present the same favorable opportunities in the future as they have for generations past. The cardinal defect of instability may not be regarded, therefore, as menacing the long-range development of

10、 common stocks as a whole. It does indeed exert a powerful temporary effect upon all business through the variations of the economic cycle, and it has permanently adverse effects upon individual</p><p>  In

11、our Introduction we point out that the experience of the last fifteen years weighs against this proposition. Without seeking to prophesy the future, may it not suffice to declare that the investor cannot safely rely upon

12、 a general growth of earnings to provide both safety and profit over the long pull? In this respect it would seem that we are back to the investor’s attitude in 1913— with the difference that his caution then seemed need

13、lessly blind to the powerful evidences of secular growth </p><p>  Selection Based on Margin-of-safety Principle. The approach to common-stock investment is based on the margin-of-safety principle. If the an

14、alyst is convinced that a stock is worth more than he pays for it, and if he is reasonably optimistic as to the company’s future,he would regard the issue as a suitable component of a group investmentin common stocks. Th

15、is attack on the problem lends itself to two possible techniques. One is to buy at times when the general market is low,measured by quantita</p><p>  Factors Complicating Efforts to Exploit General Market Sw

16、ings. A glance at the chart on page 6, showing the fluctuations of common-stock prices since 1900, would suggest that prices are recurrently too high and too low and that consequently there should be repeated opportuniti

17、es to buy stocks at less than their value and to sell them out later at fair value or higher. A crude method of doing this—but one apparently encouraged by the chart itself—would consist simply of drawing a straight line

18、 th</p><p>  Perhaps such a “system” would be as practical as any, but the analyst is likely to insist on a more scientific approach. One possible refinement would operate as follows:</p><p>  1

19、. Select a diversified list of leading industrial common stocks.</p><p>  2. Determine a base or “normal” value for the group by capitalizing their average earnings at some suitable figure, related to the go

20、ing long term interest rate.</p><p>  3. Determine a buying point at some percentage below this normal value and a selling point above it. (Or buying and selling may be done “on a scale down” and “on a scale

21、 up.”)</p><p>  A method of this kind has plausible logic to recommend it, and it is favored also by an age-old tradition that success in the stock market is gained by buying at depressed levels and selling

22、out when the public is optimistic. But the reader will suspect at once that there is a catch to it somewhere. What are its drawbacks?</p><p>  As we see it, the difficulties attending this idea are threefold

23、: First, although the general pattern of the market’s behavior may be properly anticipated, the specific buying and selling points may turn out to have been badly chosen, and the operator may miss his opportunity at one

24、extreme or the other. Second, there is always a chance that the character of the market’s behavior may change significantly, so that a scheme of operation that would have worked well in the past will cease to be prac<

25、/p><p>  The Undervalued-individual-issue Approach. The other application of the principle of investing in undervalued common stocks is directed at individual issues, which upon analysis appear to be worth subs

26、tantially more than they are selling for. It is rare that a common stock will appear satisfactory from every qualitative angle and at the same time will be found to be selling at a low price by such quantitative standard

27、s as earnings, dividends, and assets. Issues of this type would undoubtedly be </p><p>  We incline strongly to the belief that this last criterion—a price far less than value to a private owner—will constit

28、ute a sound touchstone for the discovery of true investment opportunities in common stocks. This view runs counter to the convictions and practice of most people seeking to invest in equities, including practically all t

29、he investment trusts. Their emphasis is mainly on long-term growth, prospects for the next year, or the indicated trend of the stock market itself. Undoubtedly an</p><p>  Whether or not our own concept of c

30、ommon-stock investment is a valid one may be more intelligently considered after we have given extended treatment to the chief factors that enter into a statistical analysis of a stock issue. The need for such analysis i

31、s quite independent of our investment philosophy. After all, common stocks exist and are actively dealt in by the public. Those who buy and sell will properly seek to arm themselves with an adequate knowledge of financia

32、l practice and with the t</p><p><b>  中文譯文之一:</b></p><p><b>  普通股投資的新原則</b></p><p>  作者:本杰明·格雷厄姆</p><p><b>  國(guó)籍:美國(guó)</b></p>

33、;<p><b>  來(lái)源:證券分析</b></p><p>  發(fā)表時(shí)間及頁(yè)碼:1934 366——375</p><p>  盡管將收益趨勢(shì)指標(biāo)作為選擇投資對(duì)象的唯一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)極具危險(xiǎn)性,但它仍不失為一項(xiàng)反映投資品質(zhì)的有效指標(biāo)。如果這種方法是可取的,我們就可以構(gòu)造一組可以接受的普通股投資原則,它們包括:</p><p>  1.投

34、資應(yīng)被視為一種組合性操作,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散措施時(shí)獲得令人滿意的平均結(jié)果的保證。</p><p>  2.具體證券的選擇應(yīng)采用與固定價(jià)值投資選擇所采用的定性和定量檢驗(yàn)措施相對(duì)應(yīng)的檢驗(yàn)措施。</p><p>  3.對(duì)比債券選擇而言,更為重視對(duì)所考察證券前景的分析。</p><p>  基本條件:持有一組仔細(xì)挑選的、以合理的價(jià)格分散購(gòu)買的普通股,是否可以被定義為一種正確的投資策

35、略呢?要對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題作出肯定回答必須基于這樣一個(gè)假設(shè),即這個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展歷程中某些基本的和早已形成的規(guī)律仍一如既往的可靠。它們包括:(1)整個(gè)國(guó)家的福利和盈利能力將繼續(xù)增進(jìn);(2)這種增進(jìn)本身反映在重要的公司企業(yè)在資源和利潤(rùn)方面的增長(zhǎng);(3)這種增長(zhǎng)主要是追加資本的投資和未分配收益的再投資的正常過(guò)程所帶來(lái)的。第三個(gè)假設(shè)強(qiáng)調(diào)了在累計(jì)盈余和未來(lái)贏利能力方面存在著明顯的因果關(guān)系,因此普通股的選擇并非完全是一個(gè)撞大運(yùn)或依靠憑空猜測(cè)的工作,他必須

36、以在聯(lián)系現(xiàn)行市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的前提下對(duì)過(guò)去記錄所進(jìn)行的分析為根據(jù)。</p><p>  如果這些基本條件依然存在,那么具有良好歷史記錄的普通股,從整體上來(lái)說(shuō)將和前幾十年一樣的為人們提供有力的機(jī)會(huì)。因此,不穩(wěn)定性這個(gè)根本的弱點(diǎn)將不會(huì)威脅到普通股整體的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的波動(dòng),不穩(wěn)定性確實(shí)為所有工業(yè)部門(mén)帶來(lái)了巨大的短期影響,而且對(duì)個(gè)別企業(yè)和工業(yè)部門(mén)具有永久性的負(fù)面作用。但對(duì)于這兩種危險(xiǎn),后者可以一方面通過(guò)精挑細(xì)選,并更重

37、要的通過(guò)充分的分散或來(lái)加以化解;前一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則可以通過(guò)采取矢志不移的堅(jiān)持以合理價(jià)格進(jìn)行沒(méi)意向購(gòu)買的方法來(lái)加以防范。</p><p>  在我們的介紹中,我們指出了過(guò)去十五年的表現(xiàn)對(duì)于這種觀點(diǎn)是不利的。一個(gè)依然存在的事實(shí)是,總的來(lái)說(shuō),良好的歷史記錄能夠?yàn)楣镜那熬疤峁┍炔涣加涗浉鼮槌浞值谋WC。即使充分考慮到未來(lái)的種種不確定性,這個(gè)結(jié)論的正確性也是難以被推翻的。誠(chéng)然,任何一個(gè)具體的企業(yè)都可能從失敗中復(fù)興,或者由興盛走向

38、沒(méi)落;但是如果以一組企業(yè)作為考察單位的話,實(shí)力雄厚的公司幾乎都要比效益差和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)不良的企業(yè)更有前途。</p><p>  基于邊際安全原則的選擇</p><p>  普通股投資的方法是基于邊際安全原則的。如果分析家確信一只股票的價(jià)值是高于購(gòu)買它所需的價(jià)格,而且分析家對(duì)于公司的未來(lái)持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度,那么,他可以把它看做構(gòu)成普通股投資的組合中的理想的一部分。這就涉及到兩個(gè)技術(shù)性的問(wèn)題。第一就是

39、在市場(chǎng)處于底部時(shí),以一組量化的價(jià)值指標(biāo)間或的買入。很可能這個(gè)購(gòu)買會(huì)被證明是具有代表性的,是相當(dāng)活躍的債券。第二個(gè)技巧就是去發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)值被低估的個(gè)股,這即使是市場(chǎng)未處于相對(duì)低位時(shí)也是很可能做到的。在另外的一種情況中,邊際安全存在于當(dāng)證券在低于分析師計(jì)算的它們的內(nèi)在價(jià)值出售時(shí)。但考慮到意外情況的發(fā)生和心理因素的作用,這兩種方法差別很大。</p><p>  利用一般的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)使這種努力變得復(fù)雜化??匆谎鄣诹?yè)的圖表,展示

40、了普通股自1900年以來(lái)的變動(dòng)情況,顯示了價(jià)格重復(fù)的出現(xiàn)過(guò)高和過(guò)低的同時(shí),也提供了在價(jià)格低于他們的價(jià)值時(shí)買入何在價(jià)格高于他們的公允價(jià)值或更高時(shí)賣出的機(jī)會(huì)。一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單也被改圖表自身所反映的方法,就是在過(guò)去市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)范圍的中間畫(huà)一條直線,當(dāng)價(jià)格低于這條線的某一部位買入,然后在高于這條線的某一部位賣出?;蛟S這樣的一個(gè)系統(tǒng)顯得很實(shí)在,但分析家更傾向于堅(jiān)持一種更科學(xué)的方法。一種可能的改良會(huì)是這樣:</p><p>  1.挑選

41、一組廣泛的行業(yè)龍頭公司的普通股</p><p>  2.對(duì)于這組股票確定一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)或者標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的價(jià)值,以一個(gè)合適的數(shù)值來(lái)資本化它們的平均收益,這一數(shù)值要與長(zhǎng)期利率相聯(lián)系。</p><p>  3.在低于和高于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)價(jià)值某一百分比時(shí)確定一個(gè)買入點(diǎn)和賣出點(diǎn)。</p><p>  這樣的一種方法有一種是是而非的邏輯來(lái)使它受歡迎,他也被一種在證券市場(chǎng)中被證明是正確的古老傳統(tǒng)所青睞,

42、即在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條時(shí)買入,在大眾樂(lè)觀時(shí)賣出。但公眾或許偶爾會(huì)疑慮:它是吸引人的,那它的缺點(diǎn)是什么?</p><p>  正如我們所看到的,理解這樣一種觀點(diǎn)的困難之處展現(xiàn)在眼前:第一,雖然市場(chǎng)的一般走勢(shì)或許是可以合理預(yù)期的,但確定的買點(diǎn)和賣點(diǎn)顯然是難于選擇的,操作者或許會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)底部的機(jī)會(huì)和別的機(jī)會(huì)。第二,市場(chǎng)行為的特點(diǎn)會(huì)有很大的概率顯著改變,因此,這樣的一種操作策略在過(guò)去被證明是正確的不一定在未來(lái)能發(fā)揮實(shí)際的作用。第三,這

43、個(gè)方法本身需要相當(dāng)?shù)男愿裆系膱?jiān)強(qiáng)。它涉及的買賣通常是與大眾流行的看法背道而馳的,當(dāng)看到證券在買入后下跌,賣出后上漲,并且在學(xué)多人熱衷于市場(chǎng)時(shí)遠(yuǎn)離市場(chǎng)。盡管有這些不足,我們的觀點(diǎn)依然是極力推薦它。</p><p>  價(jià)值被低估問(wèn)題的解決方法。被低估的普通股投資原則的另一個(gè)運(yùn)用是直接的個(gè)別問(wèn)題,他們運(yùn)用于當(dāng)出售價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于他們應(yīng)有的價(jià)值時(shí)。一只股票在每一方面同時(shí)符合量化的指標(biāo),并且在一個(gè)相對(duì)于她的每股收益來(lái)說(shuō)是低的

44、價(jià)位出售,這種情況是非常少見(jiàn)的。如果是債權(quán)屬于這種類型,那么毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)他們是屬于購(gòu)買的類型,同時(shí)這也是我們?cè)诘谒恼陆o出的投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的補(bǔ)充。更具實(shí)際意義的問(wèn)題是這樣的,那就是這種投資方法是否能準(zhǔn)確的運(yùn)用于從數(shù)量化指標(biāo)看起來(lái)非常便宜的普通股投資上。這類證券能夠被大量找到,它是作為這樣的一種結(jié)果存在的,那就是股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)于公司通常具有的美好的增長(zhǎng)前景的困惑。因?yàn)閷?duì)成長(zhǎng)方面的過(guò)分強(qiáng)調(diào),許多設(shè)立已久,具有良好的財(cái)務(wù)狀況,在他們各自行業(yè)具有重要地位和可能

45、是注定會(huì)留存下來(lái),并且在相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間里能創(chuàng)造利潤(rùn)的公司,由于沒(méi)有投機(jī)性或成長(zhǎng)方面的吸引力,被市場(chǎng)所歧視,特別是長(zhǎng)時(shí)間以來(lái)的低利潤(rùn),導(dǎo)致他們以顯著低于私人所有而具有的價(jià)值的股價(jià)出售。</p><p>  我們強(qiáng)烈的傾向于最后的一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——價(jià)格顯著低于相對(duì)于私人所有的價(jià)值,這將會(huì)是在普通股投資中發(fā)現(xiàn)投資機(jī)會(huì)的可靠標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)與絕大多數(shù)人在股票投資中的實(shí)際操作背道而馳,包括幾乎所有投資者所信賴的。他們強(qiáng)調(diào)的重點(diǎn)在于長(zhǎng)

46、期的增長(zhǎng),以及對(duì)于來(lái)年的預(yù)期,或者證券市場(chǎng)本身所標(biāo)明的趨勢(shì)。無(wú)疑,任一這三種視點(diǎn)當(dāng)中的一個(gè),可能會(huì)帶來(lái)成功,這種成功是基于經(jīng)驗(yàn)和天賦。但我們并不十分確信這幾個(gè)方法能夠發(fā)展成為一個(gè)被每一個(gè)投資者經(jīng)過(guò)仔細(xì)學(xué)習(xí)后抱有信心的系統(tǒng)或者一個(gè)技術(shù)。因此,我們必須發(fā)出我們的獨(dú)特聲音,來(lái)對(duì)抗這種在市場(chǎng)中被使用的方法,縱然很好的掌握它們可能真的會(huì)帶來(lái)贏利。在市場(chǎng)交易中,預(yù)測(cè)來(lái)年各個(gè)公司的收益,挑選一個(gè)最好的新聞媒體來(lái)做長(zhǎng)期的擴(kuò)張,所有這些在華爾街都有用武之

47、地。</p><p>  我們對(duì)于普通股投資的分析是否有效,需要在我們給出拓展的方法之后才能仔細(xì)甄別,這種方法就是對(duì)一只股票的主要方面進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)分析。而對(duì)于這種分析的需求是不依賴于我們的投資理念的。大眾應(yīng)該學(xué)會(huì)用足夠的金融實(shí)務(wù)知識(shí),以及對(duì)于有效分析公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表十分必要的工具和技巧來(lái)武裝自己。</p><p><b>  外文翻譯之二:</b></p>&

48、lt;p>  Intelligent Investing</p><p>  Author: warren buffett</p><p>  Nationality: USA</p><p>  Source and Classification: The essays of warren buffett</p><p>  Rele

49、ased time and page numbers:2004; 93--94</p><p>  Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments. Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is t

50、hrough an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.</p><p>  Shou

51、ld you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering. Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy. What an investor needs is the abi

52、lity to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected": You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of

53、 competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing it</p><p>  To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing, or emerging m

54、arkets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though

55、, investment students need only two well-taught courses-How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.</p><p>  Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a p

56、art interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards-

57、so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, d</p><

58、;p>  Though it's seldom recognized, this is the exact approach that has produced gains for Berkshire shareholders: Our look-through earnings have grown at a good clip over the years, and our stock price has risen

59、correspondingly. Had those gains in earnings not materialized, there would have been little increase in Berkshire's value.</p><p><b>  中文譯文之二:</b></p><p><b>  聰明的投資</b&g

60、t;</p><p><b>  作者:沃倫·巴菲特</b></p><p><b>  國(guó)籍:美國(guó)</b></p><p>  來(lái)源:巴菲特致股東的信</p><p>  發(fā)表時(shí)間及頁(yè)碼:2004,93—94</p><p>  讓我對(duì)你們自己的投資談一些看法。大

61、多數(shù)投資者,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者和個(gè)人投資者,會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)擁有普通股的最佳途徑是投資收費(fèi)低廉的指數(shù)基金。那些走這條路的投資者肯定能夠戰(zhàn)勝絕大多數(shù)投資專家創(chuàng)造的凈收益(扣除管理費(fèi)和開(kāi)支以后)。</p><p>  但是,如果你選擇建立自己的投資組合,那么有幾種思想值得牢記。聰明的投資并不復(fù)雜,盡管說(shuō)他容易也遠(yuǎn)不現(xiàn)實(shí)。一個(gè)投資者需要的是正確估價(jià)選中的公司的能力。這一這個(gè)詞“選中的”:你不必成為每一家公司,或者許多公司的專家,你只需要

62、能夠?qū)υ谀苣芰Ψ秶鷥?nèi)的公司股價(jià)。范圍的大小并不重要:但是,了解它的邊界必不可少。</p><p>  要成功的進(jìn)行投資,你不需要了解β值,現(xiàn)代投資組合理論,有效市場(chǎng)理論,期權(quán)定價(jià),或者新興市場(chǎng)。實(shí)際上,你最好對(duì)此一無(wú)所知。當(dāng)然,這不是大多數(shù)商學(xué)院里盛行的觀點(diǎn),這些學(xué)科在商學(xué)院的金融課程中占有重要的地位。盡管,我們認(rèn)為投資專業(yè)的學(xué)生只需要2門(mén)教授得當(dāng)?shù)恼n程——如何評(píng)估一家公司,以及如何考慮市場(chǎng)價(jià)格。</p&g

63、t;<p>  作為一名投資者,你的目標(biāo)應(yīng)當(dāng)僅僅是以理性的價(jià)格買入一家有所了解的公司的部分股權(quán),在從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始的5年、10年和20年里,這家公司的收益實(shí)際上肯定可以大幅增長(zhǎng)。在時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)河中,你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)只有幾家公司符合這些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——所以一旦看到一家合格的,就應(yīng)當(dāng)買入相當(dāng)數(shù)量的股票。你還必須忍受偏離你的指導(dǎo)方針的誘惑,如果你不愿意擁有一家股票10年,那就甚至不要考慮擁有它10分鐘。把總的盈利會(huì)在未來(lái)幾年中不斷增長(zhǎng)的公司聚集到一個(gè)投資

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