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1、<p><b> Ⅲ.外文翻譯</b></p><p><b> 外文翻譯之一:</b></p><p> Newer canons of common-stock investment</p><p> Authors: Benjamin·Graham</p><p>
2、 Nationality: USA</p><p> Source: Security analysis</p><p> Released time and page numbers:1934 366——375頁</p><p> The trend of earnings,although most dangerous as a sole basis
3、for selection,may prove a useful indication of investment merit. If this approach is a sound one, there may be formulated an acceptable canon of common-stock investment, containing the following elements:</p><
4、p> 1. Investment is conceived as a group operation, in which diversification of risk is depended upon to yield a favorable average result.</p><p> 2. The individual issues are selected by means of quali
5、tative and quantitative tests corresponding to those employed in the choice of fixed-value investments.</p><p> 3. A greater effort is made, than in the case of bond selection, to determine the future outlo
6、ok of the issues considered.</p><p> Secular Expansion as Basis. May the ownership of a carefully selected, diversified group of common stocks, purchased at reasonable prices, be characterized as a sound in
7、vestment policy? An affirmativeanswer may be developed from any one of three different kinds ofassumptions relating to the future of American business and the policyof selection that is followed. The first will posit tha
8、t certain basic andlong-established elements in this country’s economic experience may stillbe counted upon. Th</p><p> If these fundamental conditions still obtain, then common stocks with suitable exhibit
9、s should on the whole present the same favorable opportunities in the future as they have for generations past. The cardinal defect of instability may not be regarded, therefore, as menacing the long-range development of
10、 common stocks as a whole. It does indeed exert a powerful temporary effect upon all business through the variations of the economic cycle, and it has permanently adverse effects upon individual</p><p> In
11、our Introduction we point out that the experience of the last fifteen years weighs against this proposition. Without seeking to prophesy the future, may it not suffice to declare that the investor cannot safely rely upon
12、 a general growth of earnings to provide both safety and profit over the long pull? In this respect it would seem that we are back to the investor’s attitude in 1913— with the difference that his caution then seemed need
13、lessly blind to the powerful evidences of secular growth </p><p> Selection Based on Margin-of-safety Principle. The approach to common-stock investment is based on the margin-of-safety principle. If the an
14、alyst is convinced that a stock is worth more than he pays for it, and if he is reasonably optimistic as to the company’s future,he would regard the issue as a suitable component of a group investmentin common stocks. Th
15、is attack on the problem lends itself to two possible techniques. One is to buy at times when the general market is low,measured by quantita</p><p> Factors Complicating Efforts to Exploit General Market Sw
16、ings. A glance at the chart on page 6, showing the fluctuations of common-stock prices since 1900, would suggest that prices are recurrently too high and too low and that consequently there should be repeated opportuniti
17、es to buy stocks at less than their value and to sell them out later at fair value or higher. A crude method of doing this—but one apparently encouraged by the chart itself—would consist simply of drawing a straight line
18、 th</p><p> Perhaps such a “system” would be as practical as any, but the analyst is likely to insist on a more scientific approach. One possible refinement would operate as follows:</p><p> 1
19、. Select a diversified list of leading industrial common stocks.</p><p> 2. Determine a base or “normal” value for the group by capitalizing their average earnings at some suitable figure, related to the go
20、ing long term interest rate.</p><p> 3. Determine a buying point at some percentage below this normal value and a selling point above it. (Or buying and selling may be done “on a scale down” and “on a scale
21、 up.”)</p><p> A method of this kind has plausible logic to recommend it, and it is favored also by an age-old tradition that success in the stock market is gained by buying at depressed levels and selling
22、out when the public is optimistic. But the reader will suspect at once that there is a catch to it somewhere. What are its drawbacks?</p><p> As we see it, the difficulties attending this idea are threefold
23、: First, although the general pattern of the market’s behavior may be properly anticipated, the specific buying and selling points may turn out to have been badly chosen, and the operator may miss his opportunity at one
24、extreme or the other. Second, there is always a chance that the character of the market’s behavior may change significantly, so that a scheme of operation that would have worked well in the past will cease to be prac<
25、/p><p> The Undervalued-individual-issue Approach. The other application of the principle of investing in undervalued common stocks is directed at individual issues, which upon analysis appear to be worth subs
26、tantially more than they are selling for. It is rare that a common stock will appear satisfactory from every qualitative angle and at the same time will be found to be selling at a low price by such quantitative standard
27、s as earnings, dividends, and assets. Issues of this type would undoubtedly be </p><p> We incline strongly to the belief that this last criterion—a price far less than value to a private owner—will constit
28、ute a sound touchstone for the discovery of true investment opportunities in common stocks. This view runs counter to the convictions and practice of most people seeking to invest in equities, including practically all t
29、he investment trusts. Their emphasis is mainly on long-term growth, prospects for the next year, or the indicated trend of the stock market itself. Undoubtedly an</p><p> Whether or not our own concept of c
30、ommon-stock investment is a valid one may be more intelligently considered after we have given extended treatment to the chief factors that enter into a statistical analysis of a stock issue. The need for such analysis i
31、s quite independent of our investment philosophy. After all, common stocks exist and are actively dealt in by the public. Those who buy and sell will properly seek to arm themselves with an adequate knowledge of financia
32、l practice and with the t</p><p><b> 中文譯文之一:</b></p><p><b> 普通股投資的新原則</b></p><p> 作者:本杰明·格雷厄姆</p><p><b> 國籍:美國</b></p>
33、;<p><b> 來源:證券分析</b></p><p> 發(fā)表時間及頁碼:1934 366——375</p><p> 盡管將收益趨勢指標(biāo)作為選擇投資對象的唯一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)極具危險性,但它仍不失為一項反映投資品質(zhì)的有效指標(biāo)。如果這種方法是可取的,我們就可以構(gòu)造一組可以接受的普通股投資原則,它們包括:</p><p> 1.投
34、資應(yīng)被視為一種組合性操作,風(fēng)險分散措施時獲得令人滿意的平均結(jié)果的保證。</p><p> 2.具體證券的選擇應(yīng)采用與固定價值投資選擇所采用的定性和定量檢驗措施相對應(yīng)的檢驗措施。</p><p> 3.對比債券選擇而言,更為重視對所考察證券前景的分析。</p><p> 基本條件:持有一組仔細(xì)挑選的、以合理的價格分散購買的普通股,是否可以被定義為一種正確的投資策
35、略呢?要對這個問題作出肯定回答必須基于這樣一個假設(shè),即這個國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展歷程中某些基本的和早已形成的規(guī)律仍一如既往的可靠。它們包括:(1)整個國家的福利和盈利能力將繼續(xù)增進(jìn);(2)這種增進(jìn)本身反映在重要的公司企業(yè)在資源和利潤方面的增長;(3)這種增長主要是追加資本的投資和未分配收益的再投資的正常過程所帶來的。第三個假設(shè)強(qiáng)調(diào)了在累計盈余和未來贏利能力方面存在著明顯的因果關(guān)系,因此普通股的選擇并非完全是一個撞大運或依靠憑空猜測的工作,他必須
36、以在聯(lián)系現(xiàn)行市場價格的前提下對過去記錄所進(jìn)行的分析為根據(jù)。</p><p> 如果這些基本條件依然存在,那么具有良好歷史記錄的普通股,從整體上來說將和前幾十年一樣的為人們提供有力的機(jī)會。因此,不穩(wěn)定性這個根本的弱點將不會威脅到普通股整體的長期發(fā)展。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的波動,不穩(wěn)定性確實為所有工業(yè)部門帶來了巨大的短期影響,而且對個別企業(yè)和工業(yè)部門具有永久性的負(fù)面作用。但對于這兩種危險,后者可以一方面通過精挑細(xì)選,并更重
37、要的通過充分的分散或來加以化解;前一種風(fēng)險則可以通過采取矢志不移的堅持以合理價格進(jìn)行沒意向購買的方法來加以防范。</p><p> 在我們的介紹中,我們指出了過去十五年的表現(xiàn)對于這種觀點是不利的。一個依然存在的事實是,總的來說,良好的歷史記錄能夠為公司的前景提供比不良記錄更為充分的保證。即使充分考慮到未來的種種不確定性,這個結(jié)論的正確性也是難以被推翻的。誠然,任何一個具體的企業(yè)都可能從失敗中復(fù)興,或者由興盛走向
38、沒落;但是如果以一組企業(yè)作為考察單位的話,實力雄厚的公司幾乎都要比效益差和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)不良的企業(yè)更有前途。</p><p> 基于邊際安全原則的選擇</p><p> 普通股投資的方法是基于邊際安全原則的。如果分析家確信一只股票的價值是高于購買它所需的價格,而且分析家對于公司的未來持樂觀態(tài)度,那么,他可以把它看做構(gòu)成普通股投資的組合中的理想的一部分。這就涉及到兩個技術(shù)性的問題。第一就是
39、在市場處于底部時,以一組量化的價值指標(biāo)間或的買入。很可能這個購買會被證明是具有代表性的,是相當(dāng)活躍的債券。第二個技巧就是去發(fā)現(xiàn)價值被低估的個股,這即使是市場未處于相對低位時也是很可能做到的。在另外的一種情況中,邊際安全存在于當(dāng)證券在低于分析師計算的它們的內(nèi)在價值出售時。但考慮到意外情況的發(fā)生和心理因素的作用,這兩種方法差別很大。</p><p> 利用一般的市場波動使這種努力變得復(fù)雜化。看一眼第六頁的圖表,展示
40、了普通股自1900年以來的變動情況,顯示了價格重復(fù)的出現(xiàn)過高和過低的同時,也提供了在價格低于他們的價值時買入何在價格高于他們的公允價值或更高時賣出的機(jī)會。一個簡單也被改圖表自身所反映的方法,就是在過去市場波動范圍的中間畫一條直線,當(dāng)價格低于這條線的某一部位買入,然后在高于這條線的某一部位賣出?;蛟S這樣的一個系統(tǒng)顯得很實在,但分析家更傾向于堅持一種更科學(xué)的方法。一種可能的改良會是這樣:</p><p> 1.挑選
41、一組廣泛的行業(yè)龍頭公司的普通股</p><p> 2.對于這組股票確定一個基礎(chǔ)或者標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的價值,以一個合適的數(shù)值來資本化它們的平均收益,這一數(shù)值要與長期利率相聯(lián)系。</p><p> 3.在低于和高于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)價值某一百分比時確定一個買入點和賣出點。</p><p> 這樣的一種方法有一種是是而非的邏輯來使它受歡迎,他也被一種在證券市場中被證明是正確的古老傳統(tǒng)所青睞,
42、即在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條時買入,在大眾樂觀時賣出。但公眾或許偶爾會疑慮:它是吸引人的,那它的缺點是什么?</p><p> 正如我們所看到的,理解這樣一種觀點的困難之處展現(xiàn)在眼前:第一,雖然市場的一般走勢或許是可以合理預(yù)期的,但確定的買點和賣點顯然是難于選擇的,操作者或許會錯過底部的機(jī)會和別的機(jī)會。第二,市場行為的特點會有很大的概率顯著改變,因此,這樣的一種操作策略在過去被證明是正確的不一定在未來能發(fā)揮實際的作用。第三,這
43、個方法本身需要相當(dāng)?shù)男愿裆系膱詮?qiáng)。它涉及的買賣通常是與大眾流行的看法背道而馳的,當(dāng)看到證券在買入后下跌,賣出后上漲,并且在學(xué)多人熱衷于市場時遠(yuǎn)離市場。盡管有這些不足,我們的觀點依然是極力推薦它。</p><p> 價值被低估問題的解決方法。被低估的普通股投資原則的另一個運用是直接的個別問題,他們運用于當(dāng)出售價格遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于他們應(yīng)有的價值時。一只股票在每一方面同時符合量化的指標(biāo),并且在一個相對于她的每股收益來說是低的
44、價位出售,這種情況是非常少見的。如果是債權(quán)屬于這種類型,那么毫無疑問他們是屬于購買的類型,同時這也是我們在第四章給出的投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的補充。更具實際意義的問題是這樣的,那就是這種投資方法是否能準(zhǔn)確的運用于從數(shù)量化指標(biāo)看起來非常便宜的普通股投資上。這類證券能夠被大量找到,它是作為這樣的一種結(jié)果存在的,那就是股票市場對于公司通常具有的美好的增長前景的困惑。因為對成長方面的過分強(qiáng)調(diào),許多設(shè)立已久,具有良好的財務(wù)狀況,在他們各自行業(yè)具有重要地位和可能
45、是注定會留存下來,并且在相當(dāng)長的時間里能創(chuàng)造利潤的公司,由于沒有投機(jī)性或成長方面的吸引力,被市場所歧視,特別是長時間以來的低利潤,導(dǎo)致他們以顯著低于私人所有而具有的價值的股價出售。</p><p> 我們強(qiáng)烈的傾向于最后的一個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——價格顯著低于相對于私人所有的價值,這將會是在普通股投資中發(fā)現(xiàn)投資機(jī)會的可靠標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。這個觀點與絕大多數(shù)人在股票投資中的實際操作背道而馳,包括幾乎所有投資者所信賴的。他們強(qiáng)調(diào)的重點在于長
46、期的增長,以及對于來年的預(yù)期,或者證券市場本身所標(biāo)明的趨勢。無疑,任一這三種視點當(dāng)中的一個,可能會帶來成功,這種成功是基于經(jīng)驗和天賦。但我們并不十分確信這幾個方法能夠發(fā)展成為一個被每一個投資者經(jīng)過仔細(xì)學(xué)習(xí)后抱有信心的系統(tǒng)或者一個技術(shù)。因此,我們必須發(fā)出我們的獨特聲音,來對抗這種在市場中被使用的方法,縱然很好的掌握它們可能真的會帶來贏利。在市場交易中,預(yù)測來年各個公司的收益,挑選一個最好的新聞媒體來做長期的擴(kuò)張,所有這些在華爾街都有用武之
47、地。</p><p> 我們對于普通股投資的分析是否有效,需要在我們給出拓展的方法之后才能仔細(xì)甄別,這種方法就是對一只股票的主要方面進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計學(xué)分析。而對于這種分析的需求是不依賴于我們的投資理念的。大眾應(yīng)該學(xué)會用足夠的金融實務(wù)知識,以及對于有效分析公司財務(wù)報表十分必要的工具和技巧來武裝自己。</p><p><b> 外文翻譯之二:</b></p>&
48、lt;p> Intelligent Investing</p><p> Author: warren buffett</p><p> Nationality: USA</p><p> Source and Classification: The essays of warren buffett</p><p> Rele
49、ased time and page numbers:2004; 93--94</p><p> Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments. Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is t
50、hrough an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.</p><p> Shou
51、ld you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering. Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy. What an investor needs is the abi
52、lity to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected": You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of
53、 competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing it</p><p> To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing, or emerging m
54、arkets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though
55、, investment students need only two well-taught courses-How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.</p><p> Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a p
56、art interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards-
57、so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, d</p><
58、;p> Though it's seldom recognized, this is the exact approach that has produced gains for Berkshire shareholders: Our look-through earnings have grown at a good clip over the years, and our stock price has risen
59、correspondingly. Had those gains in earnings not materialized, there would have been little increase in Berkshire's value.</p><p><b> 中文譯文之二:</b></p><p><b> 聰明的投資</b&g
60、t;</p><p><b> 作者:沃倫·巴菲特</b></p><p><b> 國籍:美國</b></p><p> 來源:巴菲特致股東的信</p><p> 發(fā)表時間及頁碼:2004,93—94</p><p> 讓我對你們自己的投資談一些看法。大
61、多數(shù)投資者,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者和個人投資者,會發(fā)現(xiàn)擁有普通股的最佳途徑是投資收費低廉的指數(shù)基金。那些走這條路的投資者肯定能夠戰(zhàn)勝絕大多數(shù)投資專家創(chuàng)造的凈收益(扣除管理費和開支以后)。</p><p> 但是,如果你選擇建立自己的投資組合,那么有幾種思想值得牢記。聰明的投資并不復(fù)雜,盡管說他容易也遠(yuǎn)不現(xiàn)實。一個投資者需要的是正確估價選中的公司的能力。這一這個詞“選中的”:你不必成為每一家公司,或者許多公司的專家,你只需要
62、能夠?qū)υ谀苣芰Ψ秶鷥?nèi)的公司股價。范圍的大小并不重要:但是,了解它的邊界必不可少。</p><p> 要成功的進(jìn)行投資,你不需要了解β值,現(xiàn)代投資組合理論,有效市場理論,期權(quán)定價,或者新興市場。實際上,你最好對此一無所知。當(dāng)然,這不是大多數(shù)商學(xué)院里盛行的觀點,這些學(xué)科在商學(xué)院的金融課程中占有重要的地位。盡管,我們認(rèn)為投資專業(yè)的學(xué)生只需要2門教授得當(dāng)?shù)恼n程——如何評估一家公司,以及如何考慮市場價格。</p&g
63、t;<p> 作為一名投資者,你的目標(biāo)應(yīng)當(dāng)僅僅是以理性的價格買入一家有所了解的公司的部分股權(quán),在從現(xiàn)在開始的5年、10年和20年里,這家公司的收益實際上肯定可以大幅增長。在時間的長河中,你會發(fā)現(xiàn)只有幾家公司符合這些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——所以一旦看到一家合格的,就應(yīng)當(dāng)買入相當(dāng)數(shù)量的股票。你還必須忍受偏離你的指導(dǎo)方針的誘惑,如果你不愿意擁有一家股票10年,那就甚至不要考慮擁有它10分鐘。把總的盈利會在未來幾年中不斷增長的公司聚集到一個投資
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