外文翻譯--宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)是否影響公司的盈利能力

1、<p>　　中文2620字，1286單詞</p><p><b>　　外文翻譯 </b></p><p><b>　　原文 </b></p><p>　　Is there a macroeconomic impact on the profitability of the company</p>&

2、lt;p>　　Material Source:Academy of Economic Studies Author:Bucharest</p><p><b>　　Abstract </b></p><p>　　This paper aims at identifying a potential impact of the macroeconomic en

3、vironment on the profitability of the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. This research derives from the most recent literature on the macroeconomic determination of the capital structure of companies locat

4、ed into emerging countries. Indeed, as for these corporations, there has been agreed on the risk transfer between sovereign and corporate spreads, but every emerging country incurs a particular approach and </p>&

5、lt;p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　Global economy triggered corporate sector internalization. Companies became more and more integrated into a borderless world, designing and implementing strategies in order to

6、 reduce costs through economy of scale and outsourcing </p><p>　　Meanwhile, corporations are more and more exposed to disequilibrium’s originating from the international environment. Macroeconomic volatility

7、 impacts them more consistently, especially from the perspective of their creditworthiness and profitability. </p><p>　　Economic cycle is closely related to corporate profitability. During boom periods, prof

8、itability potential increases while recession brings it down. An economic downturn triggers the probability to not be able to generate enough cash-flow in order to cover the financial obligations. </p><p>　　

9、During the last decade, analysts agreed on the fact that corporate default does not imply only an idiosyncratic side, but also a systemic one, resulting from the correlation of the company with the macroeconomic environm

10、ent. </p><p>　　This paper aims at highlighting out the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the profitability of the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, broken down by sector. There have

11、been selected three variables closely linked to the macroeconomic volatility ? current account deficit, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuation- that have been integrated into an OLS regression grouping also indicator

12、s reflecting the financial soundness of the company. The conclusions regarding the poten</p><p>　　Trend of profitability </p><p>　　Recently there has been developed a consistent literature on th

13、e macro determination of the corporate default see Mc Neil, Frey and Embrachts, 2005. Links between micro and macro variables closely related to corporate default have been pointed out. Alves 2005 and Shahnazarian and As

14、berg-Sommer 2007 found cointegration relationships between the macro and Moody s KMV expected default frequency EDF variables. Short term interests, GDP and inflation are closely linked to EDF. Similar approaches have<

15、;/p><p>　　Castren et al. 2007 included domestic output, inflation, nominal interest rate and real exchange rate as endogenous variables into a VAR model while aggregated default frequency and foreign macro vari

16、ables were incorporated as exogenous variables. They concluded that default frequency and macro indicators have a similar trend. </p><p>　　This paper follows up the rationale of Jacobson et al. 2005 who conc

17、eived macro variables as corporate default regressors using the logit methodology. What it differentiates this approach is precisely the fact that there will be developed an OLS regression at the level of the corporate p

18、rofitability which is conceived as the key element of the corporate financial soundness. There have been selected three variables closely linked to the macroeconomic volatility ? current account deficit, economic</p&g

19、t;<p>　　The research aims at revealing to what extent profitability is triggered by variables at the firm level and by variables related to the macro environment. The conclusions regarding the potential impact of

20、the macro side on the profitability tend to differ according to the corporate sector, some being more impacted than the others. </p><p>　　Macroeconomic factors </p><p>　　In order to reveal the m

21、acroeconomic impact on corporate profitability, there has been performed a regression integrating profitability reflected into the net margin as endogenous variable and a series of financial ratios related to liquidity,

22、size and solvency as exogenous variables. Regressors included also macroeconomic variables ? current account deficit, exchange rate volatility and real economic growth. </p><p>　　Database integrated financia

23、l information related to the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, broken down by sector. The industries analysis focused on were represented by materials, finished goods producers, fertilizer producers, ener

24、gy and pharmaceuticals. The period financial information was related to was represented by the interval 1997-2007. </p><p>　　In a first stage, regression included only firms related variables, linked to the

25、idiosyncratic side of the corporate profitability </p><p>　　Secondly, regression was enlarged by the macro related indicators. The key element originates from the way statistic output evolved from one regres

26、sion to another, especially from the perspective of the macro indicators impact </p><p>　　Statistic output points out that profitability is impacted to a high extent by solvency, liquidity and size indicator

27、s. Material and chemical industry profitability is correlated negatively with liquidity while the other industries seem to be positively correlated. This conclusion is quite interesting. A good liquidity indicator impact

28、s in a positive way profitability. Profit creates good opportunities in order to bring liquidity into the company, but it does not necessarily imply liquidities in</p><p>　　Size is correlated positively with

29、 profitability while solvency and indebtedness indicators are correlated in most of the cases negatively. </p><p>　　Enlarging the regressions by the macro variables creates a clear opportunity for the R-squa

30、red and adjusted R-squared to increase. In all the cases, R-squared and Adjusted R-squared increase at least by 10%. The most significant change is recorded in the case of the pharmaceutical industry R-squared increases

31、from 0.55 to 0.78. </p><p>　　Profitability is highly impacted by the macroeconomic indicators at the level of 4 out of the 5 industries. The only industry which is not impacted by macro environment is repres

32、ented by the finished goods industry. Its profitability is impacted only at the firm level. Current account deficit impacts negatively profitability at the level of the material, fertilizers producers and pharmaceutical

33、industries while chemical and energetic industries are impacted positively. This impact is explained b</p><p>　　Overall, macro related variables determine to a high extent corporate profitability. In order t

34、o provide an accurate assessment of the corporate profitability, it is necessary for the analysts to consider also the macro environment the company activates in. The conclusions of this paper must be interpreted within

35、the context of the limitations imposed by the database dimension. Future research will keen on integrating into the research other macro related indicators </p><p><b>　　譯文</b></p><p>

36、;　　宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)是否影響公司的盈利能力</p><p>　　資料來源: 科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)研究 作者:布加勒斯特 </p><p><b>　　摘 要 </b></p><p>　　本文的寫作主旨在于識別宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境對列示在布加勒斯特證券交易所的公司的盈利能力產(chǎn)生的潛在影響。這項(xiàng)研究源自于大多數(shù)關(guān)于新興國家的公司運(yùn)用宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)測定公司資本結(jié)構(gòu)的近代文獻(xiàn)。事

37、實(shí)上,對于這些公司,已經(jīng)達(dá)成了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在主權(quán)和企業(yè)公司之間的轉(zhuǎn)變的一致意見,但每一個新興國家的公司都有各自特定的方式并且往往普遍地趨向于衰減。因此,這項(xiàng)研究更集中于突顯出公司盈利能力的宏觀測定,并且將會開發(fā)出一種復(fù)雜的方法,繼而將特別的和系統(tǒng)的途徑相融合。 </p><p><b>　　1導(dǎo)言 </b></p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)的全球化引發(fā)了公司部門的內(nèi)部化。各式各樣的公

38、司越來越多地融入到無邊界的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)當(dāng)中,并且為了減少成本,它們計(jì)劃和實(shí)施了規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)和外部采購的策略。 </p><p>　　與此同時,各公司也正在越來越多地暴露出它們來自于國際環(huán)境的非均衡狀態(tài)。宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的波動對它們的影響更具有一貫性,特別是在它們的信譽(yù)程度方面和盈利能力方面。 </p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)周期與企業(yè)的盈利能力密切相關(guān)。在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時期,會引起公司盈利能力的增長,而在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時期

39、,會引起公司盈利能力的下降。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷而引發(fā)的盈利能力的下降會使得企業(yè)不能夠產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金流來覆蓋企業(yè)的各項(xiàng)金融債務(wù)。 </p><p>　　在過去的十年中,分析師們一致認(rèn)同這樣一個事實(shí),就是企業(yè)的違約現(xiàn)象不僅僅是出現(xiàn)在個別的公司,而是一個普遍的現(xiàn)象,這是因?yàn)樵诤暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下公司之間是具有相關(guān)性的。</p><p>　　本文的主旨在于突顯出宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境影響列示在布加勒斯特交易所的公司的盈

40、利能力的影響程度,并且按部門進(jìn)行分解。目前已選定了三個與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波幅密切相關(guān)的變量??收支往來賬戶赤字,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和匯率波動,它們已被納入了最小平方法線性回歸分組指標(biāo),同時也反映了公司的財(cái)務(wù)健全程度,并且得出了有關(guān)企業(yè)盈利能力宏觀方面的潛在影響會根據(jù)企業(yè)部門的不同而有所不同的結(jié)論,跟其他部門相比,其中一些部門受到的影響更大。 </p><p>　　2盈利能力的趨勢的分析 </p><p>　

41、　最近,已經(jīng)建立起了一致的關(guān)于企業(yè)在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)下違約的一致的文學(xué)體系(見Mc Neil, Frey and Embrachts,2005)。微觀變量和宏觀變量之間的聯(lián)系與公司違約密切相關(guān)的事實(shí)已被指出。Alves(2005)和Shahnazarian和Asberg-Sommer(2007)發(fā)現(xiàn)了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和穆迪縣KMV公司(法國電力公司)預(yù)期違約的頻數(shù)之間的關(guān)系。短期利益、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和通貨膨脹與預(yù)期違約的頻數(shù)是密切相關(guān)的。類似的方法通過A

42、spachs, Goodhart,Tsomocos和Zicchino(2006)以及Pesaran,Schuermann和Weiner(2006)而得到發(fā)展。通過對這些觀點(diǎn)的訂閱認(rèn)知到宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境會對企業(yè)的各部門產(chǎn)生影響,而Pesaran,Schuermann和Weiner(2006)透露這種關(guān)系即源自于宏觀方面對公司的影響可以被模式化或者形式化。他們發(fā)現(xiàn),企業(yè)因違約而產(chǎn)生的盈利能力和權(quán)益價(jià)值影響著國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值。 </p>

43、<p>　　Castren等(2007)的觀點(diǎn)包括國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總量,通貨膨脹,名義利率和實(shí)際匯率在VAR模型中表現(xiàn)為內(nèi)生變量,而被匯總的違約頻數(shù)和外部的宏觀變量則被合并納入為外生變量。他們的結(jié)論是違約頻數(shù)的變動趨勢和宏觀指標(biāo)的變動趨勢有所相似。 </p><p>　　本文追蹤Jacobson等人(2005)的基本原理,他們運(yùn)用多元邏輯的研究方法設(shè)想宏觀變量和企業(yè)違約頻數(shù)。而不同于前種做法的另一種方法是制定

44、一個公司盈利能力水平的最小二乘方線性回歸,同時把公司的盈利能力被設(shè)想成為是一個對公司財(cái)務(wù)健全起關(guān)鍵作用的因素。目前已選定了三個與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波幅密切相關(guān)的變量-收支往來帳戶赤字,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和匯率波動,它們已被納入了最小二乘方線性回歸分組指標(biāo),同時也反映了公司的財(cái)務(wù)是否健全。 </p><p>　　這項(xiàng)研究旨在揭示由企業(yè)的變量水平與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的關(guān)系而引發(fā)的對公司盈利能力的影響程度。得出的結(jié)論是針對企業(yè)的不同部門,企業(yè)盈

45、利能力受宏觀方面的影響會有所不同,跟其他部門相比,其中的一些部門受到的影響更大。 </p><p>　　3宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響盈利能力的因素 </p><p>　　為了揭示了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)對企業(yè)盈利能力的影響程度,已進(jìn)行了對盈利能力的綜合的回歸分析,反映到類似于內(nèi)生變量的凈利潤和一系列與流動性有關(guān)的財(cái)務(wù)比率,規(guī)模和類似于償付能力的外生變量。 回歸量也包括宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量??收支往來賬戶赤字,匯率波動和實(shí)際經(jīng)

46、濟(jì)增長率。 </p><p>　　數(shù)據(jù)庫已經(jīng)綜合了有關(guān)在布加勒斯特證券交易所列示的上市的公司的財(cái)務(wù)信息,并把它們以產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行細(xì)分。工業(yè)行業(yè)的分析焦點(diǎn)主要是有代表性的原材料、產(chǎn)成品、材料供應(yīng)商、動力和藥物。與這些周期性的財(cái)務(wù)信息有關(guān)的代表區(qū)間選定在1997年?2007年。 </p><p>　　在第一階段,回歸分析只包括與公司有關(guān)的鏈接公司盈利能力的特殊方面的變量。 </p>&

47、lt;p>　　在第二階段,回歸分析范圍由于增加了與宏觀方面有關(guān)的指標(biāo)而有所擴(kuò)大。起關(guān)鍵性作用的元素來源于從一種回歸分析到另一種回歸分析的統(tǒng)計(jì)輸出的方式,特別是來源于對宏觀指標(biāo)的影響的透視。</p><p>　　統(tǒng)計(jì)輸出指出,盈利能力受到償付能力,流動性和規(guī)模性指標(biāo)的廣泛影響。材料和化工行業(yè)的盈利能力與流動性呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,而其他工業(yè)企業(yè)的盈利能力似乎與流動性呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。這一結(jié)論是很有趣的。一個好的流動性指標(biāo)

48、對盈利能力產(chǎn)生積極影響。利潤為公司創(chuàng)造好的流動性,但它并不一定意味著流動性與盈利能力的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義在材料和化學(xué)工業(yè)中奏效。 </p><p>　　在大多數(shù)的工業(yè)企業(yè)中,規(guī)模性與盈利能力呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而企業(yè)的償債能力和債務(wù)指標(biāo)則與盈利能力呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。 </p><p>　　通過宏觀變量擴(kuò)大回歸分析范圍給R平方和對R平方增加調(diào)整創(chuàng)造了一個明晰的機(jī)會。在所有的這些案件中,R平方和調(diào)整后的R平方至少

49、增加了10%。其中最顯著的變化出現(xiàn)在制藥工業(yè)的案例中(R平方從0.55增加至0.78)。 </p><p>　　盈利能力受到宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)高度影響的有4-5個行業(yè)。唯一的一個不受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境影響盈利能力的行業(yè)是工業(yè)產(chǎn)成品行業(yè)。其盈利能力只受公司標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的影響。收支往來賬戶赤字在原材料行業(yè)對盈利能力產(chǎn)生消極影響,而在化肥生產(chǎn)、制藥、化學(xué)和動力行業(yè)收支往來賬戶赤字對盈利能力產(chǎn)生積極影響。這種影響被解釋為與行業(yè)的最終的消費(fèi)量

50、有關(guān)。動力和化學(xué)產(chǎn)業(yè)的收支往來賬戶赤字與平常的消費(fèi)量存在高度相關(guān)性,而其他行業(yè)都沒有相同程度的相關(guān)性。在制藥和原材料行業(yè),與商品有關(guān)的通常消費(fèi)量并不能反映出一個正在增長的收支往來賬戶赤字。實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率對在這一水平上的所有行業(yè)的盈利能力均產(chǎn)生積極的影響,因此一個繁榮的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境有利于促進(jìn)企業(yè)的盈利能力的假定得到了證實(shí)。匯率波動對企業(yè)盈利能力的變化是產(chǎn)生消極影響的,這只有在制藥行業(yè)才奏效。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)是符合藥品主要集中于進(jìn)口這一假設(shè)的,這