外貿(mào)外文翻譯---對(duì)中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備快速增長(zhǎng)的反思

1、<p><b>　　附錄</b></p><p>　　Rethinking Fast Growth in China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　Yuanlong Wang</p><p>　　I．Introduction</p><p>　　Since2000

2、, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 had reached US$286.4bn. By the end of2003, it had reached US$4

3、03.3bn and in 2004 it reached US$609.9bn. In l 999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for l 5.6 percent of its GDP. The ratio has been growing continually and Was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004, making China the

4、second largest foreign exchange reserve holder in t</p><p>　　China has reserves of US$771 bn by the end of June 2005. However, China has a larger ratio of foreign exchange reserve to GDP than Japan. In 2005,

5、 China’s ratio of foreign exchange reserve to GDP was 37 percent, whereas that of Japan was 18 percent. By the end of December 2005, China’s foreign exchange reserves had expanded further to reach US$818.87bn.</p>

6、<p>　　II．Cause of China’s Sustained High Growth</p><p>　　of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　The main reason for China’s sustained fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves in recent year

7、s, is continual surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance of payments. In terms of sources, foreign exchange reserves can be divided into creditor’s rights-based reserve and debt-based reserve. The

8、 former is reserve from current accounts, whereas the latter is from the capital accounts．Foreign exchange reserves of developing countries are mainly composed of debt-based reserve. Sinc</p><p>　　It is note

9、worthy that since 2004, the expectation for renminbi appreciation has been growing continually and a large amount of speculative capital has swarmed in. The Central Bank has adopted a compulsory foreign exchange settleme

10、nt policy to maintain the relative stability of the renminbi exchange rate, which is an important factor behind expanding foreign exchange reserves. Seen from the current situation and the development trend in the near f

11、uture, the factors that have caused expansion of C</p><p>　　Admittedly, the sustained surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance of payments in recent years are the main reason for its

12、continually fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves. However, two fundamental factors are worth considering：(i) flaws in the formation of the renminbi exchange rate regime are the institutional root cause of sustained h

13、igh growth of foreign exchange reserves and (ii) the various theoretical misconceptions about China’s foreign exchange reserves have </p><p>　　In terms of institutional causes, the eruption of the 1997 Asian

14、 financial crisis held back the process of the China’s reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime.The renminbi came under great pressure to depreciate. To maintain the stability of the renminbi exchange rate, there was

15、a forced departure from the original“managed floating exchange rate regime.” In the wake of the crisis, the Chinese economy was afected by the global economic recession and worsening deflation, which has gradually ma<

16、/p><p>　　In terms of policy orientation, there have long been many theoretical misconceptions regarding the basic functions and roles of foreign exchange reserves：for example, that foreign exchange reserves equ

17、al economic strength, exaggeration of the function of foreign exchange reserves, and accumulating reserves without definite and justifiable reasons. All these factors have strongly pushed the sustained high growth of Chi

18、na’s foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>　　III．Analysis of the Theoretical Misconceptions on</p><p>　　China's Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　1．Regarding the Opinion that Forei

19、gn Exchange</p><p>　　Reserves Equal Economic Strength</p><p>　　Since the 1990s, there has been a popular opinion that the more foreign exchange reserves China has, the better it is, and that the

20、 growth of foreign exchange reserves reflects China’s economic strength and improvement of its international status. The rapid growth in foreign exchange reserves is seen as a sign of sound economic operation. In reality

21、, this is a biased viewpoint that fails to appreciate China’s actual economic condition．</p><p>　　Foreign exchange reserve is a balancing item for international payments, which is closely related to various

22、aspects of the economy and to changes in the world economy. In considering the rational scale of foreign exchange reserves, one must take into account various factors in the economy，including the scale and development pa

23、ce of the national economy, the level of economic opening up and foreign dependency, the level and structure of foreign trade development, the level of utilization of fore</p><p>　　In determining a rational

24、scale of foreign exchange reserves, China needs to be aware of the internationally accepted empirical standards, and to consider its own actual economic conditions, that is, the imperfect macroeconomic regulation system,

25、 unstable macroeconomy, imperfect market economic system, relatively fragile financial system and foreign exchange regime, and inconvertibility of the renminbi. In addition, China is undergoing economic transition and fa

26、ces many uncertainties. Therefore,</p><p>　　(1)Everything Needs to be “within Limits,”and so does the Scale of Foreign Exchange</p><p><b>　　Reserves</b></p><p>　　(2)The

27、Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves does not Necessarily Represent the Overall Economic Strength of a Country</p><p>　　(3)In General, Growth of Foreign Exchange Reserves does not Necessarily have a Positive C

28、orrelation with Economic Operation</p><p>　　Exaggeration of the Function of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　With the rapid development of financial globalization, the basic functions of forei

29、gn exchange reserve have also undergone changes. The demand for foreign exchange reserves is not only for transactions and risk prevention, but there is also “development-oriented demand'’. Especially in the case of

30、emerging-market countries, increasing attention is often paid to foreign exchange reserves as a way to boost public morale, strengthen international credibility, to improve financing capacity in the in</p><p&g

31、t;　　(1)Foreign Exchange Reserves can Only Adjust Temporary Imbalance of International Payments</p><p>　　It is only a temporary measure to use foreign exchange reserves to balance international payments. It i

32、s implemented only for saving time in domestic economic restructuring. When a country encounters a large amount of deficit in international payments over a relatively long period of time, although foreign exchange reserv

33、es can be used to intervene in the process, its role will be limited no matter how large the scale of the reserve is. If foreign exchange reserves were to diminish rapidly, publ</p><p>　　(2)Large-scale Forei

34、gn Exchange Reserves are not the Decisive Factor in the Prevention of Financial Crisis</p><p>　　The Asian financial crisis that broke out in the 1990s is a typical case for the study of modern financiaI cris

35、is. Some Asian economies became severely affected as a result of interest rate changes in international markets, increases in foreign debt, abnormal changes in international capital flow and the speculative attack by int

36、ernational hot money. Although those countries were all holding high level of foreign exchange reserves before the crisis burst out, they still could not manage to survi</p><p>　　China successfully survived

37、the Asian financial crisis. A rather popular view is that it was because of China’s high-level foreign exchange reserves. Such a view deserves discussion. Admittedly, China was able to make use of high-level foreign exch

38、ange reserves for the demand of transactions, crisis prevention and development. In particular, it did play an active role in bolstering confidence in the economic development. However, those were not the key factors. In

39、 fact, during the Asian financia</p><p>　　With China’s relatively stringent foreign exchange management, it is worth discussing the necessity to maintain a large pool of foreign exchange reserves as an anti-

40、withdrawal emergency fund. For example, consider whether high-level foreign exchange reserve can really help to improve the confidence of foreign investors. By the end of 2004, Japan had foreign exchange reserves of US$8

41、44.5bn, ranking first in the world. Chinese Taiwan，in the same period, owned US$240bn foreign exchange reserves and</p><p>　　3. Making Reserve “For the Reserve’s Sake”</p><p>　　Regarding China’s

42、 foreign exchange reserves, there is a theoretical misconception that leads to advocating reserve for reserve’s sake. This view is derived from the idea that foreign exchange reserves equal economic strength, and the vie

43、w that deifies the function of foreign exchange reserve. This view is manifested in two ways．</p><p>　　(1)Passive Holding of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　Under the influence of the view th

44、at foreign exchange reserves equal economic strength, and the more reserves the better, some take a one-sided view that precautionary holding of foreign exchange reserves will avert peril, and reserves should not be used

45、 until the critical moment. As a result, foreign exchange reserves have in reality not been effectively utilized although there has been a large pool of them. Reflecting such a view, in the management of foreign exchange

46、 reserves, such factors as</p><p>　　(2)Taking the Increasing of Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Policy Objective</p><p>　　Foreign exchange reserves are the important part of a country’s monetary

47、policy. Change in reserves is an item for balancing international payments, and it is usually a result of intervention in the foreign exchange market by the central banks of various countries. Change in the reserve aims

48、to stabilize the exchange rate. Therefore, change in the foreign exchange reserve in itself is not a policy objective, but, rather, keeps the exchange rate stable to protect the export competitiveness of dom</p>&

49、lt;p>　　No doubt, the various theoretical misconceptions regarding the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves are important factors in the country’s sustained rapid expansion of reserves, a mater that brews risk.&l

50、t;/p><p>　　IV．Adjustment of Foreign Exchange Reserve Policies</p><p>　　China’s foreign exchange reserves have maintained a high growth rate. Although large-scale foreign exchange reserves have stre

51、ngthened financial security, the security of the foreign exchange reserve asset itself is worrisome. China has paid a high price and shouldered high risks for its large pool of foreign exchange reserves. There are furthe

52、r high risks, such as loss of interest and the shrinking of the real value of its foreign exchange reserves. The large scale of foreign exchange reserves </p><p>　　1. Control the Scale of Foreign Exchange Re

53、serves</p><p>　　First, China’s foreign exchange reserves should be maintained at a reasonable leve1. From an international perspective, it is generally accepted that the minimum foreign exchange reserves sho

54、uld be able to sustain imports for at least 3months, a period that is considered the warning threshold. Based on intemational experience, the warning limit for the ratio of foreign exchange reserve to foreign debt balanc

55、e is 30 percent. From China’s point of view, its imports over 3 months in 2004 would have</p><p>　　Second, China needs to choose the appropriate time to adjust relevant macroeconomic</p><p>　　po

56、licies and strategies that have led to the sustained surplus in its balance of international payments, including foreign trade, foreign investment and industrial policies. Regarding trade policy, for instance, China has

57、long implemented the traditional trade strategy that is based on the basic principle of creating foreign exchange through exports. This has led to sustained trade surplus and rapid expansion of foreign exchange reserves,

58、 which not only exacerbates the pressure for renminbi appr</p><p>　　2. Strengthen Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves</p><p>　　In the current situation, apart from controlling the scale of f

59、oreign exchange reserves, it is more importan t for China to implement sound man agement and use of reserves. First, it should be well man aged so as to produce the maximum economic and social benefits. In managing forei

60、gn exchange reserves, besides reducing its adverse impacts on the macroeconomy, the most urgent task is to bring out the positive role of the large pool of renminbi deposits and foreign exchange reserves in boosting e<

61、;/p><p>　　對(duì)中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備快速增長(zhǎng)的反思</p><p><b>　　I．序言</b></p><p>　　從2000年起，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備一直快速增長(zhǎng)。2001年底，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備已超過(guò)2000億美元；2002年底，達(dá)到2864億美元；2003年底，達(dá)到4030億美元；及至2004年底，這一數(shù)字已達(dá)到6099億美元。在1999年，中國(guó)的外匯

62、儲(chǔ)備占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的15.6%。這一比例不斷增長(zhǎng)，到2004年已經(jīng)達(dá)到36.88%，至此中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為僅次于日本的世界第二大外匯儲(chǔ)備國(guó)。根據(jù)日本財(cái)政部在2005年7月公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到2005年6月底，日本的外匯儲(chǔ)備總額為8435億美元。</p><p>　　2005年6月底，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備達(dá)到7710億美元。但中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例要大于日本。2005年，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的37%，而日本是

63、18%。2005年12月底，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備已經(jīng)增長(zhǎng)到8188.7億美元。</p><p>　　II．中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)的原因</p><p>　　近年來(lái)中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)的主要原因是中國(guó)國(guó)際收支平衡中經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本項(xiàng)目的長(zhǎng)期盈余。從來(lái)源來(lái)看，外匯儲(chǔ)備可以分為以債權(quán)人權(quán)利為基礎(chǔ)的儲(chǔ)備和以債務(wù)為基礎(chǔ)的儲(chǔ)備。前者來(lái)自于經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目，后者來(lái)自于資本項(xiàng)目。而發(fā)展中國(guó)家的外匯儲(chǔ)備主要是由以債務(wù)

64、為基礎(chǔ)的儲(chǔ)備構(gòu)成。自20世紀(jì)90年代后半期以來(lái)，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備來(lái)源的結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了很大變化。從1994年到1996年，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備主要由以債務(wù)為基礎(chǔ)的儲(chǔ)備構(gòu)成。所增長(zhǎng)的外匯儲(chǔ)備主要來(lái)自于外國(guó)直接投資引起增加的資本項(xiàng)目。從1997年開始，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的債權(quán)人權(quán)利部分開始不斷增長(zhǎng)。不過(guò)，在2003-2004年間，以債務(wù)為基礎(chǔ)的儲(chǔ)備大幅反彈。在此期間，資本項(xiàng)目的盈余從2003年的527.26億美元激增到2004年的1106.6億美元，2004年中國(guó)

65、的外匯儲(chǔ)備增加了2066.81億美元。這與不斷增長(zhǎng)的對(duì)人民幣升值的預(yù)期和追求投機(jī)收益的國(guó)際“熱錢”的涌入密切相關(guān)。</p><p>　　值得注意的是，自2004以來(lái)，對(duì)人民幣升值的預(yù)期不斷增長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)大量投機(jī)資本蜂擁而至。中央銀行采取了強(qiáng)制性的外匯儲(chǔ)備結(jié)算政策來(lái)維持人民幣匯率的相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，而這正是外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)重要因素。從目前的狀況和近期的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)看來(lái)，造成中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)的因素還將持續(xù)存在。</p>

66、<p>　　無(wú)可否認(rèn)，近年來(lái)中國(guó)的國(guó)際收支平衡中，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本項(xiàng)目的持續(xù)盈余是中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備不斷快速增長(zhǎng)的主要原因。不過(guò)，還有兩個(gè)基本因素值得考慮：（i）人民幣匯率制度形成中的缺陷是外匯儲(chǔ)備持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)的體制根源；（ii）關(guān)于中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的各種理論誤解使得政策搖擺不定，也促使了中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)。</p><p>　　在體制根源方面，1997年爆發(fā)的亞洲金融危機(jī)抑制了中國(guó)人民幣匯率制度的改革

67、進(jìn)程。當(dāng)時(shí)人民幣承受了巨大的貶值壓力。為了維持人民幣匯率的穩(wěn)定性，中國(guó)不得不遠(yuǎn)離原本的“可控制的浮動(dòng)匯率制度”。危機(jī)結(jié)束后，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)受到了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和不斷惡化的通貨緊縮的影響，這使得人民幣匯率制度實(shí)際上轉(zhuǎn)變成為“與美元掛鉤的匯率制度”。除了外部影響，中國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和戰(zhàn)略，例如有關(guān)外貿(mào)、外國(guó)資本、外匯儲(chǔ)備、和產(chǎn)業(yè)政策上的錯(cuò)誤，也導(dǎo)致了人民幣匯率制度形成的畸變。這種畸變的一個(gè)明顯特征就是銀行的強(qiáng)制性外匯結(jié)售和封閉的銀行間外匯市場(chǎng)。在此

68、種體制框架之下，強(qiáng)制性外匯結(jié)售的執(zhí)行，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的可兌換性，以及中央銀行對(duì)指定辦理外匯業(yè)務(wù)銀行的控制，都意味著銀行、企業(yè)和居民不能依照自己的意愿持有外匯。與此同時(shí)，中央銀行以國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備的形式持有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的外匯。這樣的安排必然會(huì)導(dǎo)致外匯儲(chǔ)備的持續(xù)加速增長(zhǎng)。</p><p>　　在政策傾向方面，長(zhǎng)期存在著許多對(duì)于外匯儲(chǔ)備的基本功能和作用的理論誤解：例如，將外匯儲(chǔ)備等同于經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，夸大外匯儲(chǔ)備的功能，在沒有明確合理理由

69、的情況下積累外匯儲(chǔ)備。所有這些因素都有力的推動(dòng)了中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)。</p><p>　　III．關(guān)于中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備理論誤解的分析</p><p>　　關(guān)于外匯儲(chǔ)備等同于經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的觀點(diǎn)</p><p>　　自20世紀(jì)90年代起，有一種很普遍的觀點(diǎn)：中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備越多越好，外匯儲(chǔ)備的增長(zhǎng)反映著中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和國(guó)際地位的提高。外匯儲(chǔ)備的高速增長(zhǎng)被看做是經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行良好

70、的標(biāo)志。 事實(shí)上，這是一種不能正確評(píng)價(jià)中國(guó)實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的片面觀點(diǎn)。</p><p>　　外匯儲(chǔ)備是國(guó)際收支的一項(xiàng)平衡項(xiàng)目，它與本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個(gè)方面和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的種種變化密切相關(guān)。在考慮外匯儲(chǔ)備的合理規(guī)模時(shí)，必須要考慮到本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各種因素，包括國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)模和發(fā)展速度，經(jīng)濟(jì)開放和對(duì)外依賴的程度，外貿(mào)發(fā)展的水平和結(jié)構(gòu)，國(guó)外投資的利用程度和國(guó)際融資的能力，經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整和規(guī)范的效率，以及外匯管理系統(tǒng)。從國(guó)際角度來(lái)看，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家擁有

71、更強(qiáng)的綜合實(shí)力和更好的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控框架。他們本國(guó)的貨幣是可兌換的，并且可用于國(guó)際支付。因此他們對(duì)于外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求就相對(duì)較弱。與此相反，發(fā)展中國(guó)家受低發(fā)展水平和不完善的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控系統(tǒng)的束縛，他們的外匯資源短缺，并且本國(guó)貨幣常常不能用于國(guó)際支付。因此它們?cè)趪?guó)際市場(chǎng)中的依賴性很高，對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求也很大。</p><p>　　在決定外匯儲(chǔ)備的合理規(guī)模時(shí)，中國(guó)需要知道國(guó)際公認(rèn)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，需要考慮本國(guó)的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況:不完

72、善的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控系統(tǒng)，不穩(wěn)定的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)，不完善的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系，相對(duì)脆弱的金融體系和外匯制度，以及人民幣的不可兌換性。另外，中國(guó)正在經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，面臨著許多的不確定性，因此需要持有外匯儲(chǔ)備以備不時(shí)之需。</p><p>　　但這并不意味著擁有越多的外匯儲(chǔ)備，經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)越好，原因有以下幾點(diǎn)：</p><p>　　任何事情都需要有“度”，外匯儲(chǔ)備也不例外。</p><p>

73、　　外匯儲(chǔ)備的規(guī)模并不一定代表著一個(gè)國(guó)家的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力。</p><p>　　一般說(shuō)來(lái)，外匯儲(chǔ)備并不一定與經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況成正比。</p><p>　　2. 對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備功能的夸大之詞</p><p>　　隨著金融全球化的快速發(fā)展，外匯儲(chǔ)備的基本功能也有了變化。對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求不再僅僅是為了交易和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范，還出現(xiàn)了“以發(fā)展為導(dǎo)向的需求”。尤其是在新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家，外匯儲(chǔ)備得到

74、了越來(lái)越多的關(guān)注，它已經(jīng)變成了提高公眾士氣，加強(qiáng)國(guó)際信譽(yù)，改善在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的融資能力，降低變革風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一種方式。這種對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求就被稱之為“以發(fā)展為導(dǎo)向的需求”，人們對(duì)于外匯儲(chǔ)備功能的理解有了一定的發(fā)展。過(guò)去，外匯儲(chǔ)備只被用來(lái)彌補(bǔ)國(guó)際收支赤字和維持本國(guó)貨幣匯率穩(wěn)定?，F(xiàn)在它被用作維護(hù)一個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)際聲譽(yù)和增強(qiáng)其在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的手段。然而，對(duì)于外匯儲(chǔ)備作用變化的片面理解形成了一個(gè)似是而非的觀點(diǎn)：外匯儲(chǔ)備數(shù)量上的變化是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)是否運(yùn)行良好的

75、一個(gè)重要的評(píng)判標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或信心指數(shù)。在這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)中，外匯儲(chǔ)備的主要功能并不在于它的效用，而在于它作為一項(xiàng)指數(shù)的作用。因此，漸漸形成了一種主流認(rèn)識(shí)，認(rèn)為一個(gè)國(guó)家擁有越多的外匯儲(chǔ)備越好。進(jìn)而外匯儲(chǔ)備的功能被神化，它調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支的作用被夸大。事實(shí)上，外匯儲(chǔ)備調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支和防止金融危機(jī)發(fā)生的作用是有限的，并且僅限于以下兩個(gè)方面：</p><p>　?。?）外匯儲(chǔ)備只能調(diào)節(jié)暫時(shí)的國(guó)際收支失衡。</p><p&g

76、t;　　用外匯儲(chǔ)備來(lái)平衡國(guó)際收支只是一個(gè)臨時(shí)措施，它只能為國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)重組節(jié)省時(shí)間。如果一個(gè)國(guó)家在相對(duì)較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期內(nèi)面臨高額的國(guó)際收支逆差，盡管外匯儲(chǔ)備可以用來(lái)干預(yù)這一過(guò)程，但不管這個(gè)國(guó)家的外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模有多大，它的作用都是有限的。如果外匯儲(chǔ)備減少的太快，公眾的信心也許會(huì)崩潰，這可能會(huì)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性的影響。</p><p>　　（2）大規(guī)模的外匯儲(chǔ)備并不是防止金融危機(jī)發(fā)生的決定性因素。</p>&

77、lt;p>　　20世紀(jì)90年代爆發(fā)的亞洲金融危機(jī)是研究現(xiàn)代金融危機(jī)的一個(gè)典型案例。由于國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的利率變化，外債的增加，國(guó)際資金流動(dòng)的異常變化以及國(guó)際熱錢的投機(jī)性沖擊，一些亞洲國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)受到了很大的影響。盡管那些國(guó)家在危機(jī)爆發(fā)前全都持有大量的外匯儲(chǔ)備，他們?nèi)匀徊荒茉诖罅客稒C(jī)資本的沖擊下幸存。主要原因是這場(chǎng)危機(jī)的起因非常復(fù)雜，包括錯(cuò)誤的政府政策，不斷惡化的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)，投資者信心和市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的突然變化，脆弱的金融體系以及金融監(jiān)管中的錯(cuò)誤。而

78、根本原因是當(dāng)時(shí)的大背景，即重塑的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)格局，加速的金融全球化和自由化以及結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題，政策失誤，這些統(tǒng)統(tǒng)加劇了危機(jī)對(duì)這些經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型國(guó)家的影響。所以，即使他們擁有大量的外匯儲(chǔ)備也無(wú)濟(jì)于事。</p><p>　　中國(guó)從亞洲金融危機(jī)中幸存了下來(lái)。一種比較普遍的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為這是中國(guó)擁有大量外匯儲(chǔ)備的緣故。這種觀點(diǎn)值得探討。誠(chéng)然，中國(guó)可以利用大筆的外匯儲(chǔ)備以滿足交易，防范危機(jī)和發(fā)展的需求。特別是外匯儲(chǔ)備的確在增強(qiáng)信心，發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)方

79、面發(fā)揮了積極的作用。但這些并不是中國(guó)幸存于亞洲金融危機(jī)的關(guān)鍵因素。事實(shí)上，在亞洲金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)期間，中國(guó)只有1500億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備。同巨額的國(guó)際投機(jī)熱錢相比，這僅僅是滄海一粟，它防范金融危機(jī)的作用十分有限。中國(guó)幸存于亞洲金融危機(jī)的一個(gè)重要原因是中國(guó)尚未開放其資本市場(chǎng)，并嚴(yán)格控制其資本項(xiàng)目。幸虧有這樣一道“防火墻”，大規(guī)模的投機(jī)資本被擋在了門外。</p><p>　　鑒于中國(guó)相對(duì)嚴(yán)格的外匯管理制度，保持大量的外匯儲(chǔ)

80、備作為防提款緊急基金的必要性值得探討。例如，考慮一下大量的外匯儲(chǔ)備是否真的有助于增強(qiáng)外國(guó)投資者的信心。到2004年底，日本的外匯儲(chǔ)備為8445億美元，位列世界第一。中國(guó)臺(tái)灣同期的外匯儲(chǔ)備為2400億美元，而且其外匯儲(chǔ)備占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比率很高。但到目前為止，沒有數(shù)據(jù)顯示日本或臺(tái)灣對(duì)外國(guó)投資者有多少吸引力。相反，美國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備只夠維持不到一個(gè)月的進(jìn)口，這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于理論上的警戒線。盡管如此，沒有一個(gè)國(guó)家或個(gè)人會(huì)懷疑美國(guó)的國(guó)際支付能力。作為證明

81、，美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期保持著他吸引外資的優(yōu)勢(shì)。1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)時(shí)，受到影響的亞洲國(guó)家全都持有大量的外匯儲(chǔ)備，但沒有一個(gè)躲過(guò)了這場(chǎng)危機(jī)。</p><p><b>　　3．為了儲(chǔ)備而儲(chǔ)備</b></p><p>　　關(guān)于中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備，有一種理論上的誤解：提倡為了儲(chǔ)備而儲(chǔ)備。這種誤解起源于外匯儲(chǔ)備等同于經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和將外匯儲(chǔ)備功能神化的觀點(diǎn)，表現(xiàn)在以下兩個(gè)方面：</p&g

82、t;<p>　　（1）被動(dòng)持有外匯儲(chǔ)備</p><p>　　在外匯儲(chǔ)備等同于經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，外匯儲(chǔ)備越多越好的觀點(diǎn)影響之下，有些人片面的認(rèn)為預(yù)先持有外匯儲(chǔ)備能防止危險(xiǎn)，并且不到緊急時(shí)刻不得使用。結(jié)果盡管中國(guó)擁有大量的外匯儲(chǔ)備，但實(shí)際上它們并沒有得到有效的利用。基于這種觀點(diǎn)，外匯儲(chǔ)備管理中的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，社會(huì)效益，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制，運(yùn)行效率，貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)及其資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)等因素統(tǒng)統(tǒng)都被忽略了。這使外匯儲(chǔ)備的管理變得僵硬死板。&l

83、t;/p><p>　?。?）將增加外匯儲(chǔ)備作為政策目標(biāo)</p><p>　　外匯儲(chǔ)備是一個(gè)國(guó)家貨幣政策的重要組成部分。儲(chǔ)備的變化用于平衡國(guó)際收支，它通常是各國(guó)的中央銀行干預(yù)外匯市場(chǎng)的結(jié)果。改變儲(chǔ)備的目的是為了穩(wěn)定匯率。因此改變外匯儲(chǔ)備本身并不是政策目標(biāo)，而是要保持匯率穩(wěn)定以保護(hù)本國(guó)企業(yè)的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。這與促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和確保充分就業(yè)的措施密切相關(guān)，而這兩者都是保持發(fā)展平衡的關(guān)鍵內(nèi)部因素。顯然，改變

84、外匯儲(chǔ)備并不是貨幣政策的唯一目標(biāo)。但在中國(guó)卻有將外匯儲(chǔ)備不斷增長(zhǎng)作為政策目標(biāo)的趨勢(shì)。</p><p>　　毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，關(guān)于中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模的各種理論誤解是的中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)的重要因素，并且正醞釀著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　IV．對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備政策的調(diào)整</p><p>　　中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備一直保持著高增長(zhǎng)率。盡管大規(guī)模的外匯儲(chǔ)備加強(qiáng)了金融安全，但外匯儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)本身的

85、安全卻仍然令人擔(dān)憂。中國(guó)已經(jīng)為其龐大的外匯儲(chǔ)備付出了高昂的代價(jià)，承擔(dān)了巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。還有更多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在等著，例如利息損失和外匯儲(chǔ)備實(shí)際價(jià)值的縮水。大規(guī)模的外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展已有一系列的不利影響，并且制造了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的現(xiàn)狀已經(jīng)變成了威脅金融安全的一個(gè)重要隱患。因此，目前迫切需要調(diào)整中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備政策。</p><p>　　1.控制外匯儲(chǔ)備的規(guī)模</p><p>　　首先，中國(guó)的外匯

86、儲(chǔ)備應(yīng)該保持在合理的水平內(nèi)。國(guó)際上普遍認(rèn)為，外匯儲(chǔ)備應(yīng)該能夠維持至少3個(gè)月的進(jìn)口，3個(gè)月是公認(rèn)的警告閥值。依據(jù)國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)，外匯儲(chǔ)備占外債余額的警戒比率為30%。從中國(guó)的角度來(lái)看，2004年中國(guó)3個(gè)月的進(jìn)口需要大約1400億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備，但還需要700億美元來(lái)滿足外匯儲(chǔ)備占外債余額的警戒比率。如果考慮到外國(guó)投資者將利潤(rùn)轉(zhuǎn)移到他們本國(guó)，金融改革以及其他不時(shí)之需，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模應(yīng)該大體保持在3000-4000億美元這樣一個(gè)合理的范圍內(nèi)。&

87、lt;/p><p>　　其次，中國(guó)需要選擇一個(gè)合適的時(shí)機(jī)，對(duì)導(dǎo)致其國(guó)際收支持續(xù)順差的相關(guān)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和策略作出調(diào)整，包括外貿(mào)，國(guó)外投資和產(chǎn)業(yè)政策。例如，關(guān)于貿(mào)易政策，中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)實(shí)行傳統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略，即依據(jù)通過(guò)出口創(chuàng)造外匯的基本原則，這就導(dǎo)致了貿(mào)易的持續(xù)順差和外匯儲(chǔ)備的高速增長(zhǎng)，不僅加劇了人民幣升值的壓力，還帶來(lái)了巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此外，增強(qiáng)以人民幣匯率為基礎(chǔ)的決心，矯正其扭曲的形成機(jī)制，將會(huì)改善外匯市場(chǎng)，增強(qiáng)匯率靈活性和完

88、善匯率形成機(jī)制，這樣就能阻止外匯儲(chǔ)備的高速增長(zhǎng)。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，調(diào)整相關(guān)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，包括外貿(mào)政策和策略，正是確保中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備安全的需要。</p><p>　　2. 加強(qiáng)外匯儲(chǔ)備的管理</p><p>　　就目前的情況看來(lái)，除了要控制外匯儲(chǔ)備的規(guī)模，更重要的是中國(guó)要實(shí)施健全的外匯儲(chǔ)備管理和使用制度。首先，應(yīng)當(dāng)妥善管理外匯儲(chǔ)備，以便產(chǎn)生最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益。管理外匯儲(chǔ)備，除了要降低其對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)