globaleconomiccrisis&workersrightsissuesforunions全球

1、Global Economic Crisis & Workers Rights: Issues for Unions全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)與工人權(quán)利工會(huì)面臨的問題,What caused the global economic crisis?全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的根源,- Immediate causes直接原因 Fundamental roots of the crisis 危機(jī)的根源 What can we learn fr

2、om it? 給我們的教訓(xùn),Background of the crisis危機(jī)的背景,US Internet stocks crash in 2001-02 – to counter threat of recession, interest rate lowered to 1% in 2003 - easy money availability set off housing market boom & specul

3、ation 2001－2002年美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫崩潰－為免于衰退，2003年利率下調(diào)至1％－輕易獲得貸款帶來房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫和投機(jī)Housing loans market was lucrative since these loans could be sold as securities (CDOs) to other banks & financial institutions, who in turn bundled t

4、hese CDOs into giant securities & sold it to others & so on – the value of these securities now runs into trillions (no one has any exact idea)由于貸款可作為證券銷售，房地產(chǎn)貸款市場(chǎng)利潤(rùn)可觀，購(gòu)買這些房地產(chǎn)證券的銀行和投資機(jī)構(gòu)將這些證券與大的證券捆綁打包賣給其他人，一環(huán)接一環(huán)，最

5、后大大抬高了這些證券的價(jià)格,Background of the crisis危機(jī)的背景,To cover risk of default on CDOs, buying institutions bought insurance (credit default swaps) – which generated huge profits for insuring companies - CDS market is said to b

6、e as big as $45 trillion – both CDOs & CDS market is not regulated by govt.為掩蓋CDO帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，收購(gòu)這些CDO的機(jī)構(gòu)開始買保險(xiǎn)，給保險(xiǎn)公司帶來巨額利潤(rùn)C(jī)risis erupted when housing interest rates were raised in Aug 2007, housing loan defaults started

7、, housing market crash & CDOs became worthless… banks & insurance Cos. fail ? liquidity crunch ? real economy faces credit squeeze ? consumption, building activity & cash flows reduce ? US recession + globali

8、zation ? global troubles 隨著2007年8月提高住房貸款利率，危機(jī)爆發(fā)，引發(fā)房貸壞賬，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤，CDO嚴(yán)重貶值,Impact on Asia對(duì)亞洲的影響,Outflow of capital from Asia (>100 billion $$$ in 2008) – what was its impact on Asian economies, stock markets &

9、currencies?資本從亞洲外流-對(duì)亞洲各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體、證券市場(chǎng)和貨幣的影響？Impact of recession in western markets on Asian production & economic growth西方市場(chǎng)衰退，影響亞洲產(chǎn)品和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)Impact of credit squeeze on domestic investments, industry & jobs 壓縮信貸對(duì)國(guó)

10、內(nèi)投資、工業(yè)和就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)的影響Remittances, foreign aid, govt revenue go down匯款、外援資金、政府財(cái)政收入下滑,Impact on Asia對(duì)亞洲的影響,Workers pension funds - globally pension funds lost over 5 trillion $ between 2007 & 2008) – in some countries wh

11、ere pensions were privatised (ex in Latin America), they lost more工人養(yǎng)老基金-2007-2008年間全球養(yǎng)老金減少5萬億美元—在一些養(yǎng)老金私營(yíng)化的國(guó)家，損失更加嚴(yán)重，如拉美。Implications for collective agreements & industrial relations (wage cuts, wage freeze, rise

12、 in casual unprotected work, higher work loads, forced unpaid leave, default on social security contributions, violations of FoA) 對(duì)集體合同和產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)系的影響（包括削減工資、臨時(shí)工作崗位增加、工作量增加、強(qiáng)迫不帶薪休假、欠付社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)金、違反結(jié)社自由權(quán)等）,Possible Impact according t

13、o ILO國(guó)際勞工組織預(yù)測(cè)可能帶來的影響,Increase in unemployment by over 50 million in 20092009年，全球失業(yè)人數(shù)將增加5千萬About 200 million people into extreme poverty, majority in developing countries約2億人陷入赤貧，多在發(fā)展中國(guó)家Working poor (earning below

14、US$2 per person, per day) can go up to 1.4 billion (45% of the world’s employed)工作貧困人口將增加至14億，占全球總受雇人口的45%。Conditions of self employed & workers in informal employment much worse非正規(guī)部門自雇業(yè)者的狀況更加惡化,But - what are th

15、e root causes of the global economic crisis?但是這場(chǎng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的根源何在？,The root causes根源,Crisis of over production/over capacity & erosion of profitability (due to social inequalities that limit purchasing powers) - Need fo

16、r constantly increasing profits requires capital to keep looking for new markets – for cheap labour, cheap sources of raw materials, new markets to invest & sell 生產(chǎn)過?；蛏a(chǎn)能力過剩危機(jī)（由于社會(huì)不公限制人們的購(gòu)買力）-資本的逐利原則使得資本不斷尋找新的市場(chǎng)，以得到

17、廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)力、廉價(jià)的原材料和新的投資和銷售市場(chǎng)。lack of regulation of financial markets & institutions - ‘markets know the best’ philosophy – greed & speculation - de-regulation of economy & labour markets 金融市場(chǎng)缺乏監(jiān)管-“市場(chǎng)萬能”理論，導(dǎo)致貪婪和投

18、機(jī)行為失控-對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)自由化lets look at post war economic history of the world ! 試看戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展歷史,The root causes根源,1945 -1970s : welfare state, keynesian economic policies, strong unions, rapid economic growth – this period ca

19、me to end in late 1970s due to - increased global competition, tremendous rise in productive capacities (Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil), reducing profitability – on top of this process came oil price shocks1945

20、-1970S：福利國(guó)家、凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、強(qiáng)工會(huì)、高速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，直到上世紀(jì)七十年代結(jié)束，主要原因在于全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇、生產(chǎn)能力劇增、利潤(rùn)降低，以及石油價(jià)格危機(jī)Post 1970s - Neo-liberal restructuring of economies - Reaganism & Thatcherism & structural adjustment (1980s) - redistribute incom

21、es towards the rich on the theory that rich invest & that will promote economic growth – have these policies worked?上世紀(jì)七十年代以后-新自由主義經(jīng)濟(jì)改組-里根主義、撒切爾主義和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整（八十年代）,…then came Globalization帶來全球化,Integration of China, Ind

22、ia, Brazil, Russia, & many other emerging market economies – as production centres, markets, sources of cheap labour, raw materials中國(guó)、印度、巴西、俄羅斯和其他新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的一體化-作為生產(chǎn)中心、市場(chǎng)、廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力和原材料來源Almost 40-50% of the profits of US

23、 corporations come from their operations & sales abroad now, especially in China.美國(guó)企業(yè)40-50%的利潤(rùn)來自中國(guó)在內(nèi)的海外市場(chǎng)But - Globalization increases the problem of over-capacity, which depresses prices & profits但是-全球化帶來了能力

24、過剩問題，造成價(jià)格和利潤(rùn)削減,Rise of Financialization 金融本位主義出現(xiàn),Declining profits in industry & agriculture gave spurt to financial sector investments 工業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)下降刺激金融行業(yè)投資Financial sector creates profits but it doesn’t create new v

25、alue 金融行業(yè)創(chuàng)造利潤(rùn)但不能創(chuàng)造新價(jià)值Growth of trading in derivatives (Value of credit derivatives market is estimated at more than 8 times the global GDP)金融衍生品貿(mào)易的出現(xiàn),Financialization of Economy經(jīng)濟(jì)的金融本位主義,Growth of (unregulated) priva

26、te equity capital/hedge funds and their operations in mfg sector - profits are made by selling-off assets of companies, downsizing, reducing investment in plant & equipment, shutting down mfg operations, outsourcing

27、production, share buy backs – all in the name of maximizing share-holder value 私人或無序證劵資本及操作-出售企業(yè)、裁員、減少企業(yè)設(shè)備投資、外包等帶來的利潤(rùn)Even mfg companies play markets rather than produce (Ex GE, GM, Porsche) – even social security fun

28、ds MFG企業(yè)也開始做市場(chǎng)游戲，而不是進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)-包括社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)基金,Volatility of financial sector金融部門的不穩(wěn)定性,financial crises since capital markets were deregulated & liberalized in the 1980s自上世紀(jì)八十年代資本市場(chǎng)放開和自由化之后出現(xiàn)的金融危機(jī)- Japan in 1989-91日本- F

29、inland, Italy, UK, Sweden in 1992芬、意、英、瑞- Mexican financial crisis in 1994-95墨西哥- Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98亞洲金融危機(jī)- Russian Fin Crisis in 1998俄羅斯- Argentine Fin collapse in 2001-02阿根廷- US technology stoc

30、ks crash in 2000-01美國(guó),So, what needs to be done?怎么辦？,What is Capital saying? Create of Global Financial Regulatory Coordinating Council (comprised of private banks, IMF, WB), … BUT emergency action should not provide th

31、e basis for a permanent larger role for the public in the international financial system - Institute of International Finance (financial sector’s global lobby organization)資本如何說？創(chuàng)立一個(gè)全球金融管理協(xié)調(diào)委員會(huì)（包括私有銀行、IMF、WB），但必須采取緊急行動(dòng)，

32、為公共在國(guó)際金融體制中發(fā)揮更大作用奠定基礎(chǔ)。,Union view工會(huì)的觀點(diǎn),End deregulation of employment market & ensure respect for fundamental rights of workers (FoA & CB rights)停止就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的無序化，保證工人的基本權(quán)利（包括結(jié)社自由和集體談判權(quán)）Ensure basic social security

33、 for all (effective social protection measures would have minimized ‘impact of economic crisis’ and assisted in improving effectiveness of stimulus/recovery packages)確保所有人享有基本社會(huì)保障（采取有效的社會(huì)保護(hù)措施，盡量減少經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的影響，提高刺激資金的有效性。）E

34、liminate tax havens, tax evasion, transfer pricing & currency transaction tax – to dampen speculation.應(yīng)采取適當(dāng)?shù)恼?，減少避稅天堂、逃稅、轉(zhuǎn)嫁價(jià)格和貨幣交易稅-打擊投機(jī)行為,Union view工會(huì)的觀點(diǎn),What should be the objectives of International financial m

35、arkets ? expand the casino in more orderly fashion OR to channel resources into real economy? Greater regulation of financial markets so that these serve the objectives of real economy 國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)的目標(biāo)是什么？有序擴(kuò)大這種“賭場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”，還是增加實(shí)體經(jīng)

36、濟(jì)的資源？What else???其他,ILO Approach國(guó)際勞工組織的建議,Tripartite dialogue with social partners - should play a key role in addressing the economic crisis & developing policy responses at national level. 社會(huì)伙伴三方對(duì)話-解決危機(jī)，制定應(yīng)對(duì)政策

37、Pre-condition for effective social dialogue: ??? 有效三方對(duì)話的前提條件 ILO promotes Global Jobs Pact 國(guó)際勞工組織提倡全球就業(yè)契約,ILO’s Global Jobs Pact全球就業(yè)契約,Framework for national & international policies aimed at: 國(guó)家和國(guó)際政策

38、框架的目標(biāo)在于：A global economic recovery with job creation and the provision of social protection to working people and their families at its core;全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，增加就業(yè)，提供社會(huì)保護(hù)Stronger regulatory framework for the financial sector;加強(qiáng)

39、對(duì)金融業(yè)的監(jiān)管Efficient and well-regulated trade and markets;提高貿(mào)易和市場(chǎng)的效率和監(jiān)管,ILO’s Global Jobs Pact全球就業(yè)契約,Policy options identified include: 政策選擇可包括：Employment incentive public investment;刺激就業(yè)公共投資Special employment progra

40、mmes特殊就業(yè)計(jì)劃Support for enterprises支持企業(yè)發(fā)展Broadening social protection and minimum wages擴(kuò)大社會(huì)保護(hù)，提高最低工資,Atleast one lesson for Asia給亞洲的警示,Over dependence on exports & western markets Almost 60% of final demand for

41、 Asian goods comes from developed countries. Exports account for about 47% of developing Asia’s output 對(duì)出口和西方市場(chǎng)的過于依賴：亞洲商品60%出口到發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家。出口占亞洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家總量47%。For economic & social stability at home - Asian countries need

42、development & expansion of domestic markets – this implies Decent Work & respect for fundamental labour standards. 國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定—亞洲國(guó)家需發(fā)展國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，促進(jìn)體面勞動(dòng)，遵守基本勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。,Sources & further readings參考書目,Wall Street Meltdown

43、 Primer – by Walden Bello, published on Friday, Sept 26, 2008 by Foreign Policy in Focus Talking Points: Economic Meltdown – by Chuck Collins, Oct 27, 2008, Institute for Policy Studies (www.ips-dc.org)How bailouts Dwa

44、rf other global crisis spending – by Andersen, Cavanagh & Redman, Institute of Policy Studies, Nov 24, 2008Voices from the South – Impact of the financial crisis on developing countries – Institute of Development St

45、udies, Nov 2008 (www.ids.ac.uk/go/financial-crisis-impact)ILO Global Employment Trends Report 2009IUF (www.iuf.org): The G20 and After–Questions for Labour, 15 Dec 2008Source: Financial Times, Asia and the crisis: Unl

46、ucky numbers By David Pilling, February 9 2009 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65599c38-f6e1-11dd-8a1f-0000779fd2ac.html RECOVERING FROM THE CRISIS: A GLOBAL JOBS PACT - http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---r