上海市水資源利用模式可持續(xù)性定量研究.pdf

1、2.12.2弓!言..............……、....................................................................……5論文背景.........……，....................................................................……5論文目標(biāo)與意義.........................……，.

2、..........................................……6創(chuàng)新點..........................……，.....................................................……6水資源的可持續(xù)利用.....................................................................……7水資源可持續(xù)

3、利用概念.............................................……，..............……7水資源可持續(xù)利用指標(biāo)..................................................................……8指標(biāo)對測量上海水資源利用模式可持續(xù)性的含義...............................……11上海水資源狀況及水資源利用模式.

4、.........................................……，……11相對可用清潔水資源量指標(biāo)的構(gòu)造.................................................……12上海清潔水短缺及其影響因素.......................................................……13上海清潔水可用性主要影響因素..................

5、...................……，........……13上海水資源量............................................................................……14上海水資源污染狀況...................................................................……15上海水污染主要影響因素.........

6、.....................................……，........……17經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對水污染程度的影響.......................................................……19產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化對水污染程度的影響.................................................……20技術(shù)進步對水污染程度的影響...............

7、...............……，..................……24污染緩解措施對水污染程度的影響.................................................……25上海污染水量演變......................................................................……26上海水廠生產(chǎn)力.......................

8、..............................................……，…27人口增長、遷移對清潔水可用性的影響...........................................……28CWA模型.................................................................................……28上海水需求演變及其影響因素.

9、......................................................……31水需求影響因素......................……，............................................……31人口增長、遷移對水需求的影響....................................................……31經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對水需求的影響.

10、............................................................……32產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化對水需求的影響.......................................................……32技術(shù)進步對水需求的影響................……，......................................……34用水減少措施對水需求的影

11、響.......................................................……34水需求模型...............................................................................……35人均相對清潔水可用性..............................................................

12、..……38可用清潔水占水需求的比例...........................................................……38RCWA演變對可持續(xù)性的意義......................................................……40生態(tài)環(huán)境需水量對RCWA的影響...................................................…

13、…41討論及結(jié)論...............................................................................……42結(jié)論........................................................................................……42不足之處及有待繼續(xù)探索問題......................

14、................................……43參考文獻(xiàn)..................................................................................……441勺︸﹃J..…司.且111，工I勺‘內(nèi)J，J，J2勺︸勺︸3，.‘勺‘內(nèi)」月片乙月3.4.33.4.43.4.53.53.63.74.4.14.24.34.44.54.64.755.15

15、.25.36.6.16.27.AbstraCtShanghai，situatedontheHuangPu側(cè)verandontheYang’tZeRiverEstuary，stillsuffersaeutelyfromaIaekofavailablecleanwater，mainlyduetoPoorwaterquality.ThisresearchPaPeraimsfirsttobuildathoughtheoreticalfounda

16、tionftheaPPlieationofPrevioussustainabilityresearchtoShanghai’5waterresoureesusagemodel.WethenanalysethefactsaffeetingwaterPollutionlevelstheavailabilityof，demf，eleanwaterinthecity.Thetrendsassoeiatedwitheleanwateravaila

17、bilitydemandsineetherefmandoPeninguPProvideevidenceastothesustainabilityofShanghai’sWaterusagemodel.InordertounderstandthesustainabilityofShanghai’5waterusagemodel，ourPaperintrodueesindieatsofeleanwateravailability，CWA，a

18、ndrelativeeleanwateravailability，RCWA，whiehmeasurestheratioofeleanwateravailabilitytodemand.Theseindieatstakewaterqualityintoaccount，which15essentialfanyanalysisofShanghai’5waterresources.WeaPPlyregressionanalysistodeter

19、minetheinflueneeandrelativeimPortanceofeaehfaetorinourmodeltoCWA，waterdemand，andthensubsequentlytCWA.ThisProvidesuswithourbasisfdiscussingthesustainabilityofShanghai’5waterusagemodel.RaPideconomiedeveloPmenthasledtoaeons

20、iderabledeereaseintheavailableeleanwaterandaeorresPondinginereaseindemandfcleanwater.Asaresult，RCWAeurrentlystandsataround65，indieatingademandataround150%ofavailability，throwingintoseriousdoubtthesustainabjlityofShanghai

21、’5waterusagemode].OfthefaetorsalleviatingtheinereaseinwaterdemandandwaterPollutioneausedbyraPideconomicdeveloPment，wefindthatthechangeincomPositionofthecity’5industryduringtheindustrialtransitionhasexertedasignificanteff

22、eetbothonitsPollutionintensityonitswaterintensity，whjehhavedeereased勿40%60%resPeetive]yoverthePeriodfrom1978.This，intUm，hashadasignificanteffeetonbothwaterdemandandeleanwateravailability.ChangingPollutionintensityhasiner

23、easedRWCAby26PereentagePointswhilstthecorresPondingfigurefwaterintensityehange1537PereentagePoints.Inaddition，technologica]ProgresshasledtoanincreaseinRCWAof49PereentagePointsandgovernmentmeasureshaveledtoanincreaseof48P

24、ereentagePoints.GiventhehistiealtrendsinRCWAsineetherefmandoPeninguP，weseethatShanghaireaehedalowPointin1996butthateonditionsareimProving.OurPaPerintroducessustainabilityeriteriafwaterusagemodelsbasedontheRCWAindieat.5in

25、eetheeurrentimProvementtrendhasonlylastedf15years50far，andsincetheavailableeleanwater15stillinsuffieienttosatisfydem，it15notPossibletoeoneludethatShanghai’5waterusagemodel15sustainable.However，ifeurrenttrendseontinue，it1

26、5PossiblethatShanghai’5waterusagemodelcanaehievesustainability，thoughthiswilltakeatleastagenerationand15notassured，astrendsinPollutionintensityandwaterintensitywillnotnecessarilyeontinueatthesamerate.Keywords:Sha刀ghai，.、