海外醫(yī)藥行業(yè)風(fēng)雨前行，逆周期飛揚又一年

1、HealthcareAnalystZhangYidongzhangyd@.cnSAC:S0190517070001SFC:BIS749ContactIsabellaCaicaiyingchen@.cnSFC：BLT552XiangQiujingxiangqiujing@.cnACountercyclicalIndustryGoingUpWithFluctuation11282018Newpoliciescausenewmarketpat

2、ternsnewdifferentiation.Withtherealizationof“universalcoverage”ofmedicalinsurancetheagingofthepopulationthecostcontrolofmedicalinsuranceisaninevitabletrend.Inthefuturedrivenbyrefinedfeescontrollingclinicalpathwaymanageme

3、ntdrugratiocontrollingvolumeprocurementthestructuraldifferentiationofthepharmaceuticalindustrywillbealongtermtrend.Thedifferencesbetweenproductswillbecomelargerlargerthestructuralopptunitiesinpharmaceuticalswillbehighlig

4、hted.Despitechallengesdifficulties2018isstillayearofharvest.Theperfmanceofthepharmaceuticalsecthasincreasedfurtherin2018.Despitethepolicydisturbanceinthethirdquartertheperfmanceofmostcompaniesisstillinastablerange.Thisye

5、arlistedpharmaceuticalcompanieshaveobtainedfruitfulnewdrugswhichlaysthefoundationfmediumtermgrowth.ThestockpriceofthesectsinmedicaldevicesChinesemedicinespharmaceuticalcirculationCROperfmedwell.Howeverthepharmaceuticalse

6、ctmedicalservicessectbothfellabout20%whichmeansthatthestockpricevaluationcontinuedtodifferentiateamongsects.In2019themedicalindustrywillstillbecountercyclicalcontinuetogrowtherewillbestilllotsofinvestmentopptunitiesinthe

7、subsects:?Inthepharmaceuticalsectunderthegeneraltrendofcostcontrolofmedicalinsurancetheindustrysecologyisfacingreshaping.LeadingenterpriseswithR2)uncertaintyintheprogresssuccessrateofnewproductdevelopment3)uncertaintyinm

8、arketingafterapproving.Overweight（Maintained）圖表目錄表1、2015年2018年藥品審評審批政策................................6表2、優(yōu)先審評發(fā)布進展.........................................................................................7表3、優(yōu)先審評代表品種獲批上市的

9、時間（天）..................................................8表4、一致性評價關(guān)鍵政策梳理.............................................................................8表5、通過一致性評價品種發(fā)布進展........................................................

10、.............9表6、47城市藥品集中采購品種與競爭格局（一致性評價數(shù)據(jù)截止2018.11.15）..................................................................................................................................13表7、競爭程度決定基藥中標(biāo)價維護能力（20112013年）....

11、.........................18表8、抗癌藥醫(yī)保準(zhǔn)入專項談判藥品結(jié)果...........................................................21表9、基本藥物目錄調(diào)入和調(diào)出的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)...............................................................23表10、部分重點公司品種調(diào)入基藥目錄情況............

12、..........................................25表11、未進入國家醫(yī)保目錄的新納入基藥品種..................................................26表12.港股醫(yī)藥板塊近一年收入利潤增長...........................................................29表13.港股醫(yī)藥公司和子版塊上半年業(yè)績情況..

13、................................................29表14：已披露三季報香港上市公司業(yè)績情況......................................................30表15：2018年港股上市醫(yī)藥公司新藥及仿制藥上市一覽表.............................31表16.2018年港股醫(yī)藥板塊部分新上市獨角獸公司一覽........

14、.........................32表17.港股未盈利生物科技公司上市情況總結(jié)（截止2018.11.23）.................32表18.港股醫(yī)藥公司和子版塊估值情況...............................................................34表19：全國性流通商業(yè)20172018Q3收入利潤情況.............................

15、.............37表20：各省市完全執(zhí)行兩票制的時間.................................................................37圖1、國家醫(yī)療保障局職能整合...........................................................................11圖2、分級診療解決醫(yī)療供需矛盾...............

16、........................................................27圖3、醫(yī)生資源是醫(yī)療體系的核心.......................................................................27圖4、全國各地分級診療政策措施最新進展.......................................................

17、28圖5、上?！?11”模式示意圖.........................................................................28圖6、我國醫(yī)聯(lián)體合作示意圖...............................................................................28圖7.中藥配方顆粒市場規(guī)模（億元）.................

18、...............................................39圖8.配方顆粒銷售額占中藥飲片比例................................................................39圖9.復(fù)星醫(yī)藥（2196.HK）........................................................................

19、............43圖10.中國中藥（0570.HK）..................................................................................43圖11.康哲藥業(yè)（0867.HK）..................................................................................43圖12.

20、石藥集團（1093.HK）..................................................................................43圖13.國藥控股（1099.HK）..................................................................................43圖14.中國生物制藥（1177.HK）...

21、.....................................................................43圖15.三生制藥（1530.HK）..................................................................................44圖16.綠葉制藥（2186.HK）...............................