建筑材料行業(yè)關(guān)注需求主線，把握核心龍頭

1、內(nèi)容目錄1.復(fù)盤上半年，建材板塊引領(lǐng)周期...............................................................................61.1.水泥及消費(fèi)白馬繼續(xù)引領(lǐng)行業(yè)...................................................................................61.2.EPS向上，水泥基本面超預(yù)期.

2、..................................................................................72.當(dāng)下仍需重視基建投資需求.......................................................................................82.1.中美結(jié)構(gòu)性紛爭或?qū)㈤L期持續(xù)..................

3、.................................................................82.2.消費(fèi)需求整體仍在筑底階段.......................................................................................92.3.基建仍是穩(wěn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要政策工具................................

4、.............................................102.4.地產(chǎn)政策改善預(yù)期逐步增強(qiáng).....................................................................................142.5.流動(dòng)性、信用環(huán)境整體有所改善....................................................

5、.........................153.水泥：南北持續(xù)分化，周期?重?在彈性.............................................................173.1.半年回顧：供需兩端持續(xù)超預(yù)期.............................................................................173.2.需求：提估值關(guān)鍵因

6、素，區(qū)域分化北增南穩(wěn)...........................................................173.2.1.華北：需求預(yù)期增強(qiáng)，受益周邊漲價(jià)............................................................183.2.2.長三角：量價(jià)?求穩(wěn)?，平滑波動(dòng)............................................

7、...........................193.2.1.西北：邊際改善兌現(xiàn)，量價(jià)彈性向上............................................................213.2.2.華南：人口財(cái)政決定長期需求，雨水壓制看好后期量價(jià)反彈.....................213.3.供給：環(huán)保常抓不懈，錯(cuò)峰成為常態(tài)化...............................

8、...................................213.4.投資建議..................................................................................................................224.玻璃：下半年重點(diǎn)關(guān)注龍頭基本面變化........................................

9、...........................244.1.玻璃價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，Q1行業(yè)盈利整體下滑...........................................................244.2.需求走弱，竣工起色仍需等待.................................................................................254.3.供給略

10、有提升，庫存壓力較大.................................................................................264.4.純堿價(jià)格趨于穩(wěn)定....................................................................................................274.5.投資建議.....

11、.............................................................................................................285.玻璃纖維：行業(yè)的量價(jià)拐點(diǎn)臨近..............................................................................295.1.19年行業(yè)筑底，拐

12、點(diǎn)漸近........................................................................................295.2.后續(xù)新增產(chǎn)能壓力降低............................................................................................295.3.需求結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化，長期增長可期..

13、...............................................................................305.3.1.風(fēng)電需求好轉(zhuǎn).................................................................................................315.3.2.汽車輕量化帶動(dòng)需求.............

14、.........................................................................325.3.3.PCB穩(wěn)步增長，電子紗用量提升...................................................................335.4.投資建議...............................................

15、...................................................................356.成長建材存在結(jié)構(gòu)性機(jī)會(huì)........................................................................................356.1.前后端需求的相對強(qiáng)弱有望發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)化............................

16、..........................................356.2.防水行業(yè)：推薦東方雨虹，關(guān)注科順股份..............................................................386.3.瓷磚行業(yè)：關(guān)注帝歐家居...........................................................................

17、..............396.4.建筑涂料：行業(yè)穩(wěn)增，國產(chǎn)品牌崛起......................................................................406.5.塑料管材：B端邏輯關(guān)注收入增速，存量博弈考驗(yàn)企業(yè)本質(zhì)...............................416.6.石膏板：關(guān)注北新建材...................................