21843.上海高校人才規(guī)模統(tǒng)計(jì)及ecm模型預(yù)測(cè)

1、學(xué)校代碼：10270分類號(hào)：O21學(xué)號(hào)：122200684碩士學(xué)位論文上海高校人才規(guī)模統(tǒng)計(jì)及ECM模型預(yù)測(cè)學(xué)院：數(shù)理學(xué)院專業(yè)：概率論與數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)研究方向：試驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)研究生姓名：趙夢(mèng)雅指導(dǎo)教師：岳榮先、房云完成日期：二零一五年三月AbstractShanghaiNmalUniversityMasterofScienceAbstractAbstractOnthebackgroundfknowledgeeconomyweusestatistica

2、lmethodstopredictShanghaiuniversitiesstudents.Basedonhisticaldatasfrom1998to2013weuseECMmathematicsmethodtopredictthenumberofShanghaiuniversitiesfulltimeundergraduatescollegestudentsadulteducationonlineeducationstudentst

3、hearticlecanprovidecertainreferencebasisfrecruitmentofShanghaiuniversities’studentsinthefuture.Firstlywegivesomeintroductionaboutthebackgroundoftalent’scalerelevantmathematicstheyinthearticle.Secondlyweusetwomethodsoneis

4、thefloatingofstudentsmethoditisamethodtopredictthenumberoffulltimeundergraduatescollegestudents.Tobeginwithbirthstheywillgototheprimaryschoolinsixyearsthentheywillgotouniversitiesineighteenyears.TheotherisECMmathematicsm

5、ethodweuseprincipalcomponentanalysisthenumberofstudentsfourcovariates’values——ShanghairesidentpopulationGDPPCthesecondthirdindustryoutput，thenwefitECMpredictfourcovariates’numericalvaluesinadozenyearswecandeducethenumber

6、aboutfulltimeundergraduatescollegestudentsgraduatestudentsinadozenyears.Basedonnumbervalueratiobetweenfulltimeundergraduatescollegestudentsadultonlineeducationstudentswecanwkoutnumberratioaboutthefuturethenwepredictthenu

7、mberofadulteducationonlineeducation.FinallyweseparatelytakeoutlastyeardatalasttwoyearsdatalastthreeyearsdatatofitECMthenwecomparetheresultstohisticaldataobtaintheconclusionthatECMpredictionisclosetoreality.KeyWds:talents