基于云理論和層次分析法的城市電力空間負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè).pdf

1、華北電力大學(xué)(北京)碩士學(xué)位論文基于云理論和層次分析法的城市電力空間負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)姓名：張杰超申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：電氣工程；電力系統(tǒng)及其自動(dòng)化指導(dǎo)教師：劉宗歧201103華北電力人學(xué)碩十學(xué)位論文Abstract111ispaperpreSentsaspatialloadf0recaLstingmethodbaS酣oncloudthe0叮鋤d鋤al”ichierarchyprocessSpatialloadforecastingistheb

2、asisofdistributionn酏workplaJlning，andithingesonchoosingsuitableloaddensityBecauseloadd鋤sityisinfluencedbymaIlyuncenainfactorS，howtoselectthesuitableloaddens時(shí)becomesaComplicateddecisionprobl鋤Basedonla唱e鋤ountsofdatainVesti

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4、ly’establishhi酗ical鋤alysismodels，fomjud腫entm枷x懿accordingtomecXp喇enceofexperts鋤dcalculatethc跚bieCtiveweightsofinnuencingfaCtorsThirdly，calculatesyntheticalweightsbaSedon0bjeCtivewei曲ts孤dsubjectiVewei曲tsFinally’usingthesyI

5、ltheticalweightstoforec刪也eoptimalloaddensity鋤dtheValueofloadb硒edonsanlpledataaIldthelltakethesuperimpositioncurve嬲t11etotalloadcurveoftheprcdictedareaThesyIltheticalweigIltsproposedinthispaperc鋤tal【eacC0untoftheobjective

6、regul撕tyaIldtheexp“enceofexpensonthep閽niseofconsid鰣ngmanyinfluencingfactorSTheselectingofloaddensitybaSesonalargenumberofsampledata’rhispaperexpandslimitedsaⅡlpledatabycloudgeneratorSSothatoveroomesthedi銜cultyofgettings鋤

7、pledataIIlputtingmeValuesofinnuencingfactorsina百v饑”掰oft11eareatobepredicted，memodelc鋤workouttheloaddensityoftheareaiIlthegiv鋤ye孔Thismethodc觚110toIllypredictthespatialdistributionoftheelectricpowerload，butalS0p砌cttlleevol