輸配分開環(huán)境下供電公司的經(jīng)營風險控制方法研究.pdf

1、華北電力大學（北京）博士學位論文輸配分開環(huán)境下供電公司的經(jīng)營風險控制方法研究姓名：王成文申請學位級別：博士專業(yè)：技術(shù)經(jīng)濟及管理指導教師：譚忠富申曉留20080601華北電力大學博士學位論文摘要AbstractFormanyyearsefforts，theelectricitymarketreformofChinahasachievedinitialresultsFromtherecentlystatues，”theSeparationo

2、fGridandGeneration”hasbasiclyfinished，andthereformwillenterthenextimportantstepOneofthemainworksofthenextstepisthe”SeparationofTransmissionandDistribution”，whichmeansthatthetransmissionenterpriseanddistributionenterprise

3、willbeseparatedstepbystepbaseontheoriginalbasisPowerGridCompanyisresponsibleforthenondiscriminatorytransmissionservicestotheotherelectricitymarketmembers，andthedistributionenterprisesaremainlyresponsibleforrepresentingth

4、euserstopurchaseelectricityfromgeneratingcompanies，andtransmittotheuserssafetlyFromtherecentlyelectricitymarketstructure，thesupplycompanyisundertakingtheresponsibilityinsteadofthetransmissionanddistributioncompanyinthe”S

5、eparationofTransmissionandDistribution”environment，anditsroleandfunctionhavechangedalotintheelectricitymarketThisbringsbothchancesandriskstothesupplycompanyHoweverthefurtherfreedomoftheelectricitymarketasksforthatthesupp

6、lycompanyhavetopayattentiontotheriskprobleminitscommonmanagementTherefore，itisimportantforimprovingthemanagementefficiencyandthesmoothtransitionofthesupplycompanytesearchtheriskmanageproblem，andithasgreatfunctionandthesi

7、gnificanceThisisthebackgroundofthispaperandthemeaningfulcontributionsofthepaperareshownasfollows：1)ConsideringtheCharacteristicsthatthesupplyenterprisecanbuyelectricityfromseveraltradingcenterinthe’’SeparationofTransmiss

8、ionandDistribution”environment，theoptimalmodelofcrosspricingstrategyanddistibutionofelectricenergystrategyareconstructed；2)Consideringtheproblemsthatthepowercompanymayfacetheriskofdefaultgeneration’Scontractissuesandthel

9、ongtermcontractarrangements，thefuzzyprobabilityisusedtoexpressthedefaultgeneration’Scontractundertheunfullycondition，andtheoptimaldynamicprogrammingmodelforlong—termcontractsisbuilt，andthedropdimensionalsemianalyicalmeth

10、odispresenttosolvethemodel；3)Thefuzzysettheoryisusedtoexpresstheuncertaintyreserverate，andthesemi—variancetheoryisusedtoexpresstheriskofthereservepriceBaseonthesemi—variancetheorytheelectricityreservecapacityfuzzystrateg