政府財(cái)政和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長以政策的視角看斯里蘭卡發(fā)展中的經(jīng)濟(jì)【外文翻譯】

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： Government Finances and Economic Growth:A Policy-Perspective on The Developing Economy of SRI LANK </p><p>　　出 處： Asia-Pacific Development Journal

2、 </p><p>　　作 者： Partha Pratim Ghosh </p><p>　　In this paper, we analyse the fiscal policy orien

3、tation of the developing economy of Sri Lanka in the context of the growth performance of the economy during the period 1975-2000, using an integrated input-output and macroeconometric model. The paper draws upon the Gov

4、ernment’s policy approach towards faster economic growth. The empirical findings show that the Government’s budget deficits are not primarily the result of an excess of consumption over revenue. Rather, other current exp

5、enses, such</p><p>　　According to economic theory, fiscal deficits and government debt squeeze out the growth potential of an economy (Abel and Bernanke, 2001).This is not true of a demand-constrained econom

6、y. It also does not hold true when the Government runs a deficit to make investment expenditures, since investment leads to growth.Many developing countries have been interested in reducing Government activities in the r

7、ealm of economics, consonant with encouragement to the private sector. In this paper, we have </p><p>　　Modern growth theory encourages Government investment in the areas of infrastructure, education, health

8、 and similar areas.In a developing economy that requires a high rate of growth, we should encourage both private investment and government investment.The Government stated that meeting the challenge of bringing the publi

9、c debt under control required decisive action in two areas. The first objective was to create an environment where national income grew faster than the public debt, permitting t</p><p>　　Although neoclassica

10、l economists claim that permanent reductions in Government purchases would lead to permanent increases in disposable income and stimulate private consumption, there is no concrete evidence of such forward-looking behavio

11、ur, even in developed economies such as the United States of America or in a developing Asian economy, such as India.Any cut in the excess of current expenditures over Government final consumption expenditures, if feasib

12、le, may augment resources for investment</p><p>　　We began with the proposition that total investment has two components: domestic and foreign. It emerged that domestic investment was not operating under an

13、accelerator-type of mechanism, because the coefficient of lagged GDP was statistically insignificant even at the 10 per cent level.</p><p>　　Export demand for the country’s products was not found to be depen

14、dent on real income of the world. The estimated form omits the income-effect supposed to be operating through world-GDP because its coefficient was statistically insignificant.</p><p>　　Integrating the real

15、and monetary sectors. In the macroeconometric sub-model, we wanted to take into account both real and monetary factors in the economy. The proposed integration was attempted through the real rate of interest, which in tu

16、rn was modelled as the money rate of interest net of the inflation rate. However, neither the consumption nor investment functions estimated showed significant coefficients for the real rate of interest. </p><

17、p>　　Consumption. Four main categories were identified: (a) food, beverages and tobacco; (b) textiles, clothing and footwear; (c) electricity, water and gas; and (d) other manufactured products. All four were found to

18、be strongly related to disposable GDP alone.</p><p>　　Investment. The model identified two major categories of investment expenditure: (a) construction and land development; and (b) machinery and equipment m

19、anufacturing.</p><p>　　Some of the main categories of exports were identified as: (a) other agricultural products; (b) garments; (c) nonmetallic products; (d) other manufactured products; and (e) machinery a

20、nd equipment manufacturing.</p><p>　　Import details. The main categories of imports were identified as: (a) rubber; (b) other agricultural products; (c) textiles; (d) food processing; (e) chemicals and chemi

21、cal products; (f) non-metal products; (g) other manufactured products; (h) machinery and equipment manufacturing; and (i) basic metals.</p><p>　　Therefore, to incorporate monetary and fiscal policy in the mo

22、del later on, we have used the alreadyintroduced credit-channel variables, namely, bank credit to the private sector and bank credit to the Government. The Government’s interest payments and transfers to the private sect

23、or can be singled out as the main reason for the growing budget deficit, leading to monetization through bank credit to the Government sector and inflation in the economy.The major conclusion that we reached is that pr&l

24、t;/p><p>　　The Government policy document (Sri Lanka 2002) relied on the initiative of the private sector to increase investment and step up growth in the economy.As per the official policy, the role of the Gov

25、ernment would be to create an environment conducive to private investment in the economy. Our purpose is to discover whether the Government can, in addition, generate resources for its own investment, which we believe wi

26、ll attract, support and supplement the proposed private investment in the economy</p><p>　　The Government’s view rightly expressed concern over the current deficit rather than the overall deficit, because ca

27、pital expenditures by the Government in the form of building infrastructure or through similar activities enhances the future growth potential rather than reducing it. However, in the context of public debt,there is a ba

28、sic distinction between internal and external debt. An internal debt is like redistribution from one section of the society to another. As such, it entails no net b</p><p>　　Summary:In the present paper, we

29、have analysed the twin problems of Government budget deficits and mounting public debt in Sri Lanka in the context of economic growth. While analysing the data on the Government budgets from 1975 to 2000, the authors fou

30、nd a current primary surplus throughout. The Government’s current purchases of goods and services have not exceeded its total tax and non-tax collections. However, the total current expenditures of the Government have fa

31、llen short of the tax and n</p><p>　　In order to reverse this trend, the Government’s policy document Regaining Sri Lanka (Sri Lanka, 2002) proposed a two-pronged action plan consisting of reductions in the

32、Government’s expenditures as well as increased revenue through a “world-class Revenue Authority”. The authors find that the past trend of the Government’s total tax and non-tax revenues is close to the projections of rev

33、enues made in the policy document, under the proposed revenue system. Therefore, the only two areas where the </p><p>　　An outline of the integrated macroeconometric and input-output model developed for the

34、Sri Lankan economy shows clearly, through historical simulations, that Government investment could play a significant role in accelerating economic growth in Sri Lanka. Simulation exercises based on the macroeconometric

35、model also highlight the potential of private investment and FDI in generating economic growth.However, increasing Government investment and bank credit to the Government are not synonymous. Th</p><p>　　The

36、growth rate of the GDP of Developing countries can be substantially increased by encouraging market-based private-sector participation, and by systematically reducing the current deficits in the Government budget to rele

37、ase resources for investment. In following this policy, the Government has to provide a strong positive and credible signal to the private sector by reducing its current primary deficits, curbing current account expendit

38、ures and focusing on investment. The present paper there</p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　政府財(cái)政和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長:以政策的視角看斯里蘭卡發(fā)展中的經(jīng)濟(jì)</p><p>　　本文運(yùn)用了整合的微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)輸入輸出模型，旨在分析1975至2000年期間經(jīng)濟(jì)增長業(yè)績背景

39、下，發(fā)展中國家在經(jīng)濟(jì)成長中的財(cái)政政策方向。本文的研究核心是快速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長情況下政府政策。經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)表明政府預(yù)算赤字并不是對財(cái)政收入過度消費(fèi)的結(jié)果。其他現(xiàn)金支出，例如政府轉(zhuǎn)移支付和利息支付，或多或少成為了導(dǎo)致國家增加公共負(fù)債的主要原因。 政府投資在全部政府開支中所占的比例在逐年減少，這將會(huì)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的一個(gè)主要障礙。與此同時(shí)，政府預(yù)算赤字復(fù)發(fā)會(huì)導(dǎo)致國家債務(wù)的上漲，赤字貨幣化會(huì)產(chǎn)生通貨膨脹的壓力。為了遏制這些發(fā)展趨勢并鼓勵(lì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，減少政府預(yù)

40、算中的現(xiàn)金赤字是首要任務(wù)。國內(nèi)個(gè)人投資，國外直接投資和政府投資應(yīng)該結(jié)合起來成為互補(bǔ)的力量，共同確保國家經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長。 </p><p>　　Abel and Bernanke（2001）研究表明根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論，財(cái)政赤字和政府債券擠壓著經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在增長。這不是需求約束經(jīng)濟(jì)的真正原因。雖然投資可以導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，但這也不是政府運(yùn)行赤字來增加投資費(fèi)用的原因。許多發(fā)展中國家希望減少政府在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域中的活動(dòng)，鼓勵(lì)個(gè)體經(jīng)

41、濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展。本文嘗試建立一個(gè)系統(tǒng)的模型，它包含了發(fā)展中國家的全部財(cái)政情況概要，并且用整合的微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)輸入輸出模型來解釋從政府財(cái)政數(shù)據(jù)分析中得到的結(jié)果。</p><p>　　增長理論鼓勵(lì)政府在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施領(lǐng)域，教育領(lǐng)域，健康領(lǐng)域和相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的投資。高速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)要求經(jīng)濟(jì)高效率，在私人投資和政府投資方面都需要鼓勵(lì)。政府強(qiáng)調(diào)在可控制的情況下在兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域采取果斷行動(dòng)，引進(jìn)公共債券，迎接挑戰(zhàn)。第一個(gè)目標(biāo)是創(chuàng)造一個(gè)國家收入比公共債券

42、增長得快，允許國家超負(fù)荷債券負(fù)擔(dān)的情形。第二個(gè)目標(biāo)是通過減少預(yù)算赤字來減慢好和最終改變公共債券增長。這個(gè)終將使公共費(fèi)用減少同時(shí)增加收入。這種調(diào)節(jié)是不可避免的，而且不得不通過有效的管理保證負(fù)擔(dān)共享是公平的，保證對社會(huì)多數(shù)的易受傷害的成員不是一種強(qiáng)制的超負(fù)荷負(fù)擔(dān)。在不限制經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮條件的改革實(shí)施也是必要的。為了經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，官方正確的表達(dá)了關(guān)注目前超額的赤字而不是全部的赤字，因?yàn)橥ㄟ^政府在構(gòu)建基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施或通過相類似的活動(dòng)形式的資金費(fèi)用是有利于

43、提高未來經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在的發(fā)展而不是減少資金費(fèi)用。試圖通過重建財(cái)政的立場來發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎，而不是通過減少政府在物品和服務(wù)購買，不是創(chuàng)造過激需求不足，也不是為了達(dá)到既定的GDP財(cái)政赤字目標(biāo)率而減少政府投資。政府消費(fèi)是經(jīng)濟(jì)過度需求的一部分。這一部分的減少會(huì)影響資金的利用率，除非在私人領(lǐng)域消費(fèi)或投資或凈出口有相應(yīng)的增加。</p><p>　　雖然非古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家聲稱在政府采購永久性的減少是導(dǎo)致可支配收入永久性增加和刺激私人消費(fèi)

44、，但仍沒有關(guān)于此超前行為看法的具體的證據(jù)，甚至是在美國這種發(fā)達(dá)國家或亞洲如印度這類的發(fā)展中國家。在政府稅收和非稅收收入的不同赤字類型顯示了最終公共物品和服務(wù)現(xiàn)有的消費(fèi)的過度性。由于市場缺陷的存在，減少最終消費(fèi)支出或許不能保證私人消費(fèi)的相應(yīng)增長。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)鍵是政府投資，作為預(yù)算赤字的一部分呈下降趨勢。作為目前收入超過目前消費(fèi)一部分的政府投資同樣也是下降趨勢。在這種情況下，政府應(yīng)該試圖增加公共投資資源來使人們感到受到鼓舞而參加私人領(lǐng)域。如

45、果任何現(xiàn)有的收入增加超過政府最終消費(fèi)支出的減少是可行的那么或許政府應(yīng)增加資源的投資以此來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在發(fā)展。人們普遍認(rèn)為非經(jīng)濟(jì)政府支出取決于發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的宏觀管理的諸多問題。</p><p>　　我們開始命題，總投資有兩部分組成：國內(nèi)和國外。它出現(xiàn)了國內(nèi)的投資沒有根據(jù)的加速器類型的機(jī)制運(yùn)行，因?yàn)橄禂?shù)滯后，即使在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分之10級也是沒有統(tǒng)計(jì)意義的。國家對產(chǎn)品的出口要求并不依賴于國際實(shí)際收入，此估計(jì)模型忽略了假定

46、通過國際GDP運(yùn)行的收入效應(yīng)，因?yàn)樗南禂?shù)是沒有統(tǒng)計(jì)意義的。</p><p>　　整合實(shí)際收入和貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。在微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的次級模型中，我們想要把經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的實(shí)際收入和貨幣兩方面的因素都考慮進(jìn)來。然而，消費(fèi)和投資估計(jì)功能都沒有針對實(shí)際利率顯示出有意義的參數(shù)。</p><p>　　消費(fèi)。我們給出對消費(fèi)主要四種類型的界定：1，實(shí)物，飲料和煙草；2，絲織品，服裝和鞋類；3，電力，水資源和氣體資源；

47、4，其他制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這四類消費(fèi)僅僅與可支配GDP緊密地聯(lián)系。</p><p>　　投資：此模型定義了兩種主要投資支出的類型：1，設(shè)施建設(shè)和土地發(fā)展投資；2，機(jī)械生產(chǎn)和設(shè)備制造投資。主要出口類型被界定為如下幾個(gè)類型：1，其他農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品；2，服裝；3，非金屬產(chǎn)品；4，其他制造產(chǎn)品；5，機(jī)械生及設(shè)備制造產(chǎn)品。</p><p>　　進(jìn)口明細(xì)：主要進(jìn)口類型被定義為如下幾類：1，橡膠制品；2，

48、其他農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品？；3，絲織品；4，加工食品；5，化學(xué)制劑及化工制品；6，非金屬產(chǎn)品；7，其他制造產(chǎn)品；8，機(jī)械及設(shè)備制造產(chǎn)品；9，金屬礦產(chǎn)。</p><p>　　因此，為了稍后在模型中整合貨幣政策和財(cái)政政策，我們采用已經(jīng)介紹過的信貸媒介變量，即銀行對私信貸和銀行對政府信貸。政府利息支付和政府對私轉(zhuǎn)移支付是造成預(yù)算赤字增長的主要原因。這些政府支付最終通過銀行對政府信貸和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的通貨膨脹導(dǎo)致貨幣的大量制造。我們得出

49、的主要結(jié)論是：個(gè)人通過銀行對私信貸和FDI的投資與政府通過銀行對公信貸的投資是互補(bǔ)的。高通貨膨脹率導(dǎo)致高通脹率預(yù)期。此種高通脹預(yù)期會(huì)通過其對供應(yīng)方的不利影響降低潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。因此，雖然政府投資在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的角色十分關(guān)鍵，但明白銀行對政府信貸也許并不是增長政府投資最好的方式也是十分重要的。</p><p>　　政府的政策文件(斯里蘭卡2002)依賴私人部門的積極性增加投資,加快經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。根據(jù)政府政策，政府的職能

50、應(yīng)該是創(chuàng)造一個(gè)環(huán)境有利于民間投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)。我們的目的是要發(fā)現(xiàn)政府是否能產(chǎn)生資源,此外,由于私人的投資,相信會(huì)吸引、支持和補(bǔ)充該民間投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)。為此,我們使用斯里蘭卡中央銀行2003年年報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)做了一個(gè)簡單的實(shí)驗(yàn)。</p><p>　　政府的觀點(diǎn)的恰當(dāng)?shù)谋磉_(dá)了預(yù)算赤字而不是全部赤字,因?yàn)檎M(jìn)行基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的形式或通過類似的活動(dòng)的資本支出,提高未來發(fā)展?jié)摿?而不是減少。然而,公共債務(wù)的含義中,有一個(gè)基本的區(qū)分內(nèi)部和外部

51、的債務(wù)。因此 ，假如我們把債務(wù)人和債權(quán)人放在相同的立足點(diǎn)上它沒有承擔(dān)任何債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。一個(gè)外債,另一方面,對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)和關(guān)系到它所資信國際捐贈(zèng)人絕對是一個(gè)凈負(fù)擔(dān)。增加政府預(yù)算赤字會(huì)增加現(xiàn)有公共債務(wù)。在將來如果政府提高稅率會(huì)抵消這筆債務(wù),但效率低下。為了重新得到斯里蘭卡(斯里蘭卡2002),政府正在被提議的建筑“世界級的收入權(quán)威”成立。</p><p>　　這篇論文，在斯里蘭卡經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的背景下，我們分析了有關(guān)政府的財(cái)政赤

52、字和越來越多的公共債務(wù)中的兩個(gè)問題。在分析了從1975年到2000年政府預(yù)算的數(shù)據(jù)時(shí),學(xué)者們發(fā)現(xiàn)了所有基本項(xiàng)目通貨的順差。政府目前購買的物品與勞務(wù)沒有超出它的整體稅收和非稅收的物品。然而,經(jīng)常支出項(xiàng)目總額達(dá)到了政府部門的稅收和非稅收的其它收入。政府投資支出在預(yù)算赤字的比率也低。這使作者得出這樣的結(jié)論: 在經(jīng)濟(jì)中，政府的財(cái)政轉(zhuǎn)移支付制度及其利息在過去的債務(wù)的兩個(gè)主要原因,導(dǎo)致了預(yù)算赤字累計(jì)的滾雪球式的國債。持續(xù)的內(nèi)部種族沖突也把重?fù)?dān)落在了

53、政府身上。</p><p>　　為了扭轉(zhuǎn)這一趨勢,政府的政策文件恢復(fù)斯里蘭卡(斯里蘭卡,2002)，提出組成的一種行動(dòng)計(jì)劃減少政府支出，以及提高了收入通過"世界級的收入局”。 研究發(fā)現(xiàn), 在提議的稅收制度下，整體稅收和基建政府收入過去的趨勢是接近預(yù)期政策文件的收入計(jì)劃。因此，只有兩個(gè)地區(qū)，在那些地區(qū)政府確實(shí)有空間來運(yùn)作，以轉(zhuǎn)移支付社會(huì)福利計(jì)劃的形式試圖抵消過去的債務(wù)。目前的研究量化到一定程度,將有可能讓

54、政府增加資源通過削減福利支出。圖表上顯示的實(shí)際資源增加的程度實(shí)際很可能在1988年后,如果政府間消費(fèi)支出系列里經(jīng)常支出的比率已經(jīng)降低到兩點(diǎn)五個(gè)百分點(diǎn)(相當(dāng)于一半的實(shí)際匯率)。這些額外的資源可以增大地區(qū)政府投資，這些地方的私人投資不易有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過這種方式,政府預(yù)算赤字可以減少,政府投資就會(huì)刺激增長。</p><p>　　對于斯里蘭卡的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，一個(gè)超大型集合經(jīng)濟(jì)體的概述和投入產(chǎn)出模型可以清楚地看到，通過歷史模擬，政

55、府的投資在加快斯里蘭卡經(jīng)濟(jì)增長會(huì)發(fā)揮重要作用。模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)基于超大型經(jīng)濟(jì)模型也突顯了私人投資的潛力，以及帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中吸引了外商直接投資。然而,加大政府投入力度和銀行信貸政府不是同義詞。研究結(jié)果表明,后者已在很大程度上被用來彌補(bǔ)政府預(yù)算赤字,這些赤字源自于的多于收入的的超額經(jīng)常支出。對政府銀行信貸的增加造成貨幣基礎(chǔ)能夠迅速擴(kuò)大, 在斯里蘭卡創(chuàng)造了高通貨膨脹率。高通貨膨脹率導(dǎo)致高通脹率預(yù)期。此種高通脹預(yù)期會(huì)通過其對供應(yīng)方的不利影響降低潛在的經(jīng)

56、濟(jì)增長。因此，雖然政府投資在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的角色十分關(guān)鍵，但明白銀行對政府信貸也許并不是增長政府投資最好的方式也是十分重要的。</p><p>　　發(fā)展中國家的GDP增長率可以通過兩個(gè)方面從根本上得到提升，一是鼓勵(lì)公眾參與以市場為基礎(chǔ)的個(gè)人經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)，二是系統(tǒng)地降低政府預(yù)算中的現(xiàn)金赤字從而為投資釋放更多可利用資源。為了更好地實(shí)施這項(xiàng)策略，政府部門應(yīng)該通過減少其主要現(xiàn)金赤字、限制現(xiàn)金開支以及集中力量發(fā)展投資，為個(gè)人經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)