服務貿易和出口競爭力一個實證分析【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　Service Trade and Export Competitiveness: An Empirical Analysis</p><p>　　Material Source: http://www4.fe.u

2、c.pt/eefs/abstracts/nair-54.pdf </p><p>　　Author:Joy Mazumdar</p><p>　　Liberalization of trade in services has been an ongoing part of the World Trade Organization's agenda in recent years u

3、nder the auspices of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Producer services such as transportation, telecommunications, management consulting, engineering consulting, banking, insurance, marketing and finan

4、cial services have all become increasingly important both in their role in the domestic economy and in international trade. Liberalization of trade in services w</p><p>　　This paper examines whether service

5、trade contributes to increased trade in manufactured goods. One argument put forth for liberalizing service trade is that service imports may be necessary, especially for developing countries, to enhance their internatio

6、nal competitiveness and boost exports (see, for example, Hoekman and Braga (1997), OECD). Markusen et al. (2000) note that "..imported services may provide crucial missing inputs which allow a country to produce and

7、 export goods in which the co</p><p>　　There are numerous other examples illustrating the role of foreign services in facilitating trade in goods. DHL Express is the largest international air express service

8、s provider in India. DHL's Worldwide Medical Express (WMX) range of temperature-controlled logistics solutions for the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries in India facilitates India's efforts to become a

9、global outsourcing hub for the pharmaceutical industry and provides a single window that takes care of everything from p</p><p>　　There are several possible mechanisms through which service imports could fac

10、ilitate exports. Services could be an input into production so that service imports could increase both the output and export of goods. They could also reduce transportation costs/ information costs and therefore increas

11、e exports at any given level of output. Services may also facilitate fragmentation of production and hence lead to international outsourcing activities. Finally, country-specific services may be needed t</p><p

12、>　　The key questions we address in this paper are the following: Do service imports indeed help in increasing manufactured goods exports? Are there certain types of services that facilitate exports more than others? D

13、o service imports have a greater role in facilitating trade in developing countries than in developed countries? Our aim is to see whether service imports have an impact on exports at the economy wide level. Although it

14、would be ideal to have data on service exports from all countries,</p><p>　　There is a substantial theoretical literature incorporating the effects of producer services in international trade models. Several

15、 models treat producer services as intermediate inputs produced with constant returns to scale, and are based on the Ricardo-Viner framework (Jones and Ruane, 1990) or the Heckscher-Olin framework (Hirsch, 1989; Melvin,

16、1989; Burgess, 1990; Djajic and Kierskowski, 1989). Other models (Markusen 1989; Francois, 1990; Ishikawa 1992; Marrewijck et. Al 1996, 1997; Markus</p><p>　　Since services are inputs into production the re

17、lation between service trade and goods trade is closely linked to the one that looks at the connection between factor mobility and goods trade (see Mundell(1957), Markusen (1983), Svennson (1984) and Markusen and Svensso

18、n (1985)). Mundell (1957) pointed out that trade in factors and trade in goods can be substitutes. However, Markusen (1983) shows how trade in factors and goods can be complements when goods trade is not based on factor

19、 endowments.</p><p>　　Other papers have emphasized the role of services in reducing transaction costs. In Jones and Kierzkowski (1990), increasing returns and advantages from specialization encourage firms t

20、o fragment the production process into production blocks that are located in different countries. Services (such as administration, transportation and financial services) are required to connect and coordinate such produ

21、ction blocks. Service trade therefore makes such fragmentation possible and leads to increased </p><p>　　The service and goods trade link that we seek to capture in this paper is the one in which services im

22、ports are an input in the production of goods. Trade in this framework will be due to differentiated goods instead of endowments and so, as Markusen (1983) points out, imports of service inputs can increase exports. The

23、model can be interpreted, under certain conditions, as one in which service imports can reduce the costs of doing trade (such as transportation and communication) as well (see Ap</p><p>　　The framework that

24、we use for estimating the impact of service imports on goods exports is linked to two strands of the empirical literature in international trade. The first one relates sectoral output to factor endowments (e.g., Harrigan

25、 (1995b), Bernstein and Weinstein (2002)). The second is the large literature on estimating gravity equations that relate exports to GDP of trading countries. Our paper is linked to papers that relate sectoral exports to

26、 either country GDP or sectoral output (s</p><p>　　Our key results indicate that, on average, service imports have a significant effect on exports in the case of developing countries but not in the case of i

27、ndustrialized nations. The positive impact is significant in most cases for business and telecom. There is not much evidence that access to transport services helps exports. Financial services are consistently negative

28、, and significant in most cases, perhaps because of the Rybczynski type effect that could occur if these services are used m</p><p>　　In recent years, there have been ongoing multilateral negotiations regard

29、ing the liberalization of international trade in services such as transportation, management consulting, engineering consulting, banking, insurance, marketing and finance. Apart from the direct gains experienced by the s

30、ervice industries, it has been argued that liberalization of service trade may facilitate goods trade among countries. We develop a theoretical model analyzing the impact of trade in services on manufactured</p>&

31、lt;p>　　Our results indicate that service imports in general are more important for developing countries compared to industrialized nations in terms of providing essential inputs required for either production or for t

32、he trading process itself. Access to business and telecommunication services helps exports. The availability of transportations services does not necessarily stimulate exports. Financial services seem to have a negative

33、effect on exports. This could be because they are used more intensivel</p><p>　　An important caveat to keep in mind is that these results are based on data on cross border trade in services only and does not

34、 include services provided through affiliates. The provision of services through affiliates may be particularly important for financial services. So, it is possible that the negative effect of financial services may disa

35、ppear once we take this mode of service provision into account. One should also keep in mind that financial services import data does not include foreign</p><p>　　Our analysis has important policy implicatio

36、ns for trade negotiations: even if a country is hesitant to liberalize all types of service trade, it may be worthwhile to liberalize certain kinds of service trade that facilitate greater exports. The positive impact o

37、f certain types of services, such as telecommunication and business, on manufactured goods trade provides a politically persuasive argument for liberalizing service trade in these areas. </p><p><b>　　

38、譯文</b></p><p>　　服務貿易和出口競爭力：一個實證分析</p><p>　　資料來源: http://www4.fe.uc.pt/eefs/abstracts/nair-54.pdf </p><p>　　作者：Joy Mazumdar</p><p>　　服務貿易自由化已是近年來世界貿易組織根據(jù)服務貿易總

39、協(xié)定（GATS）的議程的一部分。如無論是在其國內經(jīng)濟中的作用和國際貿易,交通、電信、管理咨詢、工程咨詢、銀行、保險、營銷和金融服務工商業(yè)支援服務，都變得越來越重要。服務貿易自由化成為世貿組織議程的一部分是在其列為增加期望，服務貿易將導致嚴重的福利收益的基礎上。這些收益預期產(chǎn)生是在生產(chǎn)服務提供了必要的投入，并滿足消費的事實上，如運輸和電信服務。</p><p>　　本文探討是否有助于提高制成品貿易中的服務貿易。一個

40、論點提出了服務貿易自由化對服務進口可能是必要的，特別是對發(fā)展中國家，用以提高其國際競爭力和擴大出口（如，Hoekman和Braga（1997年）所述，經(jīng)合組織）。Markusen等（2000）指出，“.. 服務進口可能提供重要的投入，在自然比較優(yōu)勢情況下允許一個國家生產(chǎn)和出口在該國的商品，當然短缺資源輸入除外。這存在著龐大的剩余價值潛力。如，阿拉伯海灣地區(qū)可能有巨大的石油供應，但專業(yè)知識，才能將它推向市場。幾百億美元的外國專才可能有一個

41、價值數(shù)十億美元的回報。”</p><p>　　有許多說明了外國服務在促進貨物貿易中的作用的其他例子。 DHL快遞公司是印度全球最大的國際航空快遞服務提供商。 DHL的全球醫(yī)療快遞（WMX）為在印度的努力使印度成為了制藥行業(yè)的全球外包中心，它提供了一個制藥和生命科學等行業(yè)的溫度控制的物流解決方案，從包裝開始，照顧一切文件，跟蹤運輸，在規(guī)定的溫度限制下運輸和分布貨物.Hitachi有限公司使用的仍然是UPS供應鏈解決

42、方案的服務，以實施一項日立環(huán)球存儲技術公司（GST）的全球分銷系統(tǒng)。這有助于日立“獲得一個單一，整合，運輸，報關，分撥和直接交付可伸縮的來源，他們還挖掘專業(yè)技術和設計，以提高速度和靈活性的系統(tǒng)?！?國際物流和保證組織專家Hortens Vasquez，在日立簡潔地概括了UPS發(fā)揮的重要作用時，表示，“UPS供應鏈解決方案，其服務不斷更新使日立全球分銷系統(tǒng)可以專注于他們做的最好的——共建廣泛產(chǎn)品組合的世界級存儲技術的產(chǎn)品。“資料定量使用C

43、GE模型分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)一些證據(jù)表明，服務貿易自由化對出口產(chǎn)生很大的影響（羅賓遜等人（1999））。</p><p>　　有幾種可能的機制，使服務進口可以促進出口。服務可以是一到生產(chǎn)輸入，這樣既可以增加服務進口的產(chǎn)量和出口貨物，還可以降低運輸成本/信息成本，從而增加在任何給定產(chǎn)品的出口產(chǎn)出水平。服務也可能促進生產(chǎn)分散，從而導致國際外包活動。最后，國家特定的服務可能需要出口到一個特定國家，如美國服務，其廣告和法律服務可能

44、需要出售到美國市場。</p><p>　　本文中的關鍵問題是：做服務確實有助于增加制成品出口？是否有某些類型的服務促進出口比他國多？服務進口在促進發(fā)展中國家貿易比國家中起更大的作用？我們的宗旨是在經(jīng)濟層面上服務進口是否會對出口造成影響。鑒于取得來自所有國家的服務出口數(shù)據(jù)很難，我們專注于美國的服務出口和美國商品的限制進口的數(shù)據(jù)。</p><p>　　有大量的理論文獻提出分析生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)影響的

45、國際貿易模型。作為中間的幾個模型，將生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)，生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的不斷投入與回報，并根據(jù)Ricardo-Viner模型(Jones and Ruane, 1990) 或Heckscher-Olin 模型(Hirsch, 1989; Melvin, 1989; Burgess, 1990; Djajic and Kierskowski, 1989)及其他模型 (Markusen 1989; Francois, 1990; Ishikawa 19

46、92; Marrewijck et. Al 1996, 1997; Markusen et. al 2000)，分析規(guī)模報酬遞增的生產(chǎn)者服務業(yè)。</p><p>　　由于服務投入到生產(chǎn)之間的服務貿易和貨物貿易的關系是緊密相連的，并期待在流動性因素之間的連接貨物貿易 (見Mundell(1957), Markusen (1983), Svennson (1984) and Markusen and Svensson

47、 (1985))。Mundell（1957）指出，在貨物貿易中的因素及貿易可以替代。然而，Markusen（1983）展示了這些因素和貨物貿易如何在貨物貿易方面補充而不是以要素稟賦為基礎。另一方面，Markusen（1988）展示了服務投入的自由貿易如何在各國最終產(chǎn)品的價格相等下保持國家產(chǎn)品貿易的均衡。</p><p>　　其他文件都強調在降低交易成本中服務的作用。在Jones和 Kierzkowski（1990

48、），增加收益和專業(yè)化優(yōu)勢，鼓勵位于不同的國家的企業(yè)投入生產(chǎn)片段。服務（如管理，運輸和金融服務）需要連接和協(xié)調等生產(chǎn)區(qū)塊。服務貿易有可能因此使這種區(qū)塊分裂，并導致中間產(chǎn)品的貿易增加。Deardorff （2000）研究的貿易服務，他描述為“服務的需求所引致的直接貿易?！痹S多服務在促進貨物和（比自己除外）其他服務貿易中至關重要。最明顯的例子是，需要運輸服務貿易的貨物。減少服務貿易的貿易壁壘，像任何其他中間投入一樣，降低成本提供這些服務，可以

49、刺激最終產(chǎn)品的貿易。</p><p>　　服務和貨物貿易的聯(lián)系，在本文中假設服務進口是商品生產(chǎn)投入。在這個框架內的貿易是等稟賦的而不是有區(qū)別的商品，如Markusen（1983）指出，服務輸入進口可能增加出口。該模型可以解釋，在一定條件下，可以降低進口哪些服務貿易（如運輸和通訊），以及其費用（見附件3）的同時可以增加服務進口貨物和出口上的輸出。我們的貿易品部門都被看作是壟斷競爭，我們假設所有的服務都是進口的，而且

50、提供在進口扭曲情況下的世界價格。我們注意到，雖然我們預期進口生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)將刺激一個國家的商品出口，但如果進口的服務部門主要是在非貿易部門，這可能不會發(fā)生。為結合這種可能性，在均使用進口的投入服務情況下，將貿易與非貿易因素考慮進模型。這導致的可能性，實際上可能會降低服務進口貨物的出口。這是由于Rybczynski類型的影響而發(fā)生，由于貿易部門的服務吸引資源流入，遠離貿易部門，并減少了后者的大小。</p><p>　

51、　我們使用的框架，估計服務進口與出口是兩個在國際貿易貨物的實證文獻股的影響。第一項是關于要素稟賦部門產(chǎn)出（如Harrigan（1995年），Bernstein和Weinstein（2002））。第二個是關于引力方程，涉及國家的出口貿易對國內生產(chǎn)總值。本文鏈接到本文中所提的有關這兩個國家國內生產(chǎn)總值或部門產(chǎn)出（見Harrigan（1996年），F(xiàn)eenstra（2001年）等）。在我們的框架，涉及到我們國家的生產(chǎn)要素部門的出口，我們將其作

52、為解釋變量，而不是部門的產(chǎn)出（或國內生產(chǎn)總值），因為我們正在尋找部門產(chǎn)出的決定因素，其中包括要素稟賦和服務。但是，我們重點的決定因素，不是各種制造行業(yè)之間的差別，而是國家制造業(yè)與經(jīng)濟其他行業(yè)（主要非貿易的服務部門和農業(yè)部門）的要素稟賦上的差異。在我們的框架，服務進口像要素稟賦，當然不像我們通常假設的要素稟賦和取決于其中對服務貿易的限制。</p><p>　　我們的主要結果表明，平均而言，發(fā)展中國家服務進口對出口的

53、國家案件發(fā)展有顯著影響，但不是在工業(yè)化國家。其積極影響在大多數(shù)情況下，電信業(yè)務具有重要意義。沒有多少證據(jù)表明，便利的運輸服務會幫助出口，在大多數(shù)情況下金融服務業(yè)是一貫消極，也許是因為Rybczynski類型的影響，如果使用這些服務的行業(yè)比其他制造業(yè)居多，這可能發(fā)生。我們的研究結果支持了這一概念，在一般情況下，服務和貨物貿易是補充，而不是替代品。</p><p>　　近年來，先后有進行中的有關國際貿易自由化的多邊談

54、判，如運輸，管理咨詢，工程咨詢，銀行，保險，營銷和金融服務。除了服務行業(yè)經(jīng)驗豐富而導致的直接收益，服務貿易自由化可能會促進各國之間的貨物貿易。我們開發(fā)的理論模型分析了貿易制成品貿易服務的影響，并測試結果經(jīng)驗。理論模型預測認為，整體（國家一級）對可貿易部門的出口服務，進口產(chǎn)品的影響可正可負。該標志將取決于是否使用服務的部門或多或少與非貿易部門相比。如果服務貿易部門中使用更深入的服務進口產(chǎn)品，其影響肯定會有積極的；如果采用進口服務貿易部門相

55、比非貿易部門加緊則服務進口產(chǎn)品的影響是模糊的；如果進口服務的非貿易部門相比于貿易部門是相當高的強度，其影響可能是負面的。</p><p>　　我們的研究結果表明，一般的服務更適用于發(fā)展中國家的進口相比于無論是在提供生產(chǎn)或交易過程中本身所需要的基本投入的工業(yè)化國家的國家重要方面。結合商品和電信服務有助于出口，運輸服務的供應情況并不一定刺激出口，而金融服務似乎已經(jīng)對出口產(chǎn)生負面影響，這可能是因為它們在發(fā)展中國家更深入

56、地被用在非貿易部門。</p><p>　　一個重要且要記住的警告是，這些結果是基于對跨境服務貿易的數(shù)據(jù)，并不包括通過分支機構提供的服務。該聯(lián)營公司提供的服務，對金融服務可能特別重要。因此，一旦我們考慮到這種服務提供模式，它有可能造成的對金融服務的負面影響可能會消失。人們還應該牢記，金融服務的進口數(shù)據(jù)不包括外國資本的流入。因此，它是可能的，后者是與商品出口呈正相關，而前者則不是。我們的研究結果支持了這一概念，在一般