第八章人力資源規(guī)劃-寶雞網(wǎng)站建設(shè)投標(biāo)ppt手機(jī)

1、第八章 人力資源規(guī)劃,CHP8 Human Resource Planning,案例,北京桑科制造公司的營(yíng)銷經(jīng)理趙旺在每周經(jīng)理例會(huì)上說：“我有個(gè)好消息，我們可以與麥多德公司簽訂一大筆合同。我們所要做的就是在一年而不是兩年內(nèi)完成該計(jì)劃。我告訴過他們我們能夠做到。”,然而人力資源副經(jīng)理王林的話卻讓每個(gè)人都必須面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)，她說：在我看來，我們現(xiàn)有的工人并不具備按麥多德公司的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)生產(chǎn)出優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)品所需要的專業(yè)知識(shí)。在原來兩年的計(jì)劃進(jìn)度表中，我們

2、曾計(jì)劃對(duì)現(xiàn)有工人逐步進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)，但是按現(xiàn)在這個(gè)新的時(shí)間表我們將不得不到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上招募那些具有該方面工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的工人?；蛟S我們有必要進(jìn)一步分析一下這個(gè)方案，看看是否確實(shí)需要這么做。如果我們要在一年內(nèi)而不是兩年中完成這一計(jì)劃，人力資源成本將大幅度上升。不錯(cuò)，趙經(jīng)理，我們能夠做到這一點(diǎn)，但是由于有些約束條件，這個(gè)計(jì)劃的效益會(huì)好嗎？,假設(shè)： 你分別是營(yíng)銷經(jīng)理、人力資源經(jīng)理、公司總經(jīng)理，面對(duì)這種情況，你的態(tài)度是什么？,策之而知得失之計(jì)

3、，作之而知?jiǎng)屿o之理，形之而知生死之地，角之而知有余不足之處。 —《孫子兵法·虛實(shí)》,人力資源規(guī)劃（Human Resource Planning）的含義,在企業(yè)發(fā)展和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)劃的指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行人員的供需平衡，以滿足企業(yè)在不同發(fā)展時(shí)期對(duì)人員的需求，為企業(yè)的發(fā)展提供符合質(zhì)量和數(shù)量要求的人力資源保證。Employment or personnel planning is the process o

4、f deciding what positions the firm will have to fill, and how to fill them.,概念理解(1),HRP要在企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)劃的基礎(chǔ)上來進(jìn)行。Strategic Analysis What human resources are needed and what are available?Strategic FormulationWhat is requi

5、red and necessary in support of human resources?Strategic ImplementationHow will the human resources be allocated?,Clarify performance expectations and future management methods: values, guiding principles business

6、mission objectives and priorities resource allocations,Identify people-relatedbusiness issues,Define HR strategies,objectives, and action plans,Implement HRprocesses, policies and practices,Implement processes to

7、achieve desired results: business goals company strengths/weaknesses external opportunities/threats source of competitive advantage,Establish the context: business goals company strengths/weaknesses external opp

8、ortunities/threats source of competitive advantage,Strategic Analysis,StrategyFormulation,Strategy Implementation,,,,,,,,Linking the Processes of HRP and Strategic Planning,,,,Ensuring the Fit between HR and Strategy

9、,External Fit (or External Alignment)Focuses on the connection between the business objectives and the major initiatives in HR.Internal Fit (or Internal Alignment)Aligning HR practices with one another to establish a

10、configuration that is mutually reinforcing.,Reminder: Organization Strategy Model,概念理解(2),HRP包括對(duì)企業(yè)特定時(shí)期內(nèi)的人員供給和需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)、根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果采取相應(yīng)的措施進(jìn)行供需平衡。HRP對(duì)企業(yè)人力資源供給和需求的預(yù)測(cè)要從數(shù)量和質(zhì)量這兩個(gè)方面來進(jìn)行。,Results of Inadequate HR Planning,Vacant posit

11、ions create costly inefficienciesOvertime hours at premium costSimultaneous layoffs and hiringMass layoffs requiring:Severance payExtended notice periodsineffective training, development, career planningTurnover o

12、f high performersProblems with employment equity goalsInability to meet operational and strategic plans,Purpose of HRP,HRP’s purpose is the effective deployment of human resources through:Anticipating organizational

13、 labor supply and demand.Providing expanded employment opportunities Guiding the development and training the workforce.,人力資源規(guī)劃的內(nèi)容,Comprehensiveness of planning“Plan-based HRP” is part of organization’s business plann

14、ingHRP for special projects--planned or unplanned needs,,Assignment plan,HRP的意義和作用,有助于企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的制定有助于企業(yè)保持人員狀況的穩(wěn)定有助于企業(yè)降低人工成本的開支對(duì)HRM的其他職能具有指導(dǎo)意義,Relationships,人力資源規(guī)劃的程序,人力資源規(guī)劃的程序,implement the balanceable plan,HRP and Envi

15、ronmental Scanning,Environmental ScanningThe systematic monitoring of the major external forces influencing the organization.Economic factors: general and regional conditionsCompetitive trends: new processes, services

16、, and innovationsTechnological changes: robotics and office automation Political and legislative issues: laws and administrative rulings Social concerns: child care and educational priorities Demographic trends: age,

17、 composition,and literacy,Scanning the Internal Environment,Cultural AuditsAudits of the culture and quality of work life in an organization.How do employees spend their time? How do they interact with each other? Ar

18、e employees empowered?What is the predominant leadership style of managers?How do employees advance within the organization?BenchmarkingThe process of comparing the organization’s processes and practices with those o

19、f other companies.,FORECASTING DEMAND,Considerations Product/service demand Technology Financial resources Absenteeism/turnover Organizational growth Management philosophy,Techniques Trend analysis Managerial est

20、imates Delphi technique,Techniques Staffing tables Markov analysis Skills inventories Management inventories Replacement charts Succession Planning,External Considerations Demographic changes Education of the wo

21、rkforce Labor Mobility Government policies Unemployment rate,FORECASTING SUPPLY,BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND,(Shortage) Recruitment Full-time Part-time Recalls,(Surplus) Reductions Layoffs Terminations Demotions

22、 Retirements,,,人力資源需求的預(yù)測(cè)Forecasting Personnel Needs,人力資源需求的分析Strategy and plansProduct and service demandProjected turnoverQuality and skills of your employeesStrategic decisions to upgrade the quality of products

23、 or services or enter into new marketsTechnological and other changes resulting in increased productivity.The financial resource available to your departmentWorkload of a positionEfficiency changing,,人力資源需求預(yù)測(cè)的方法主觀判斷

24、法 Managerial Estimate Management forecasts are the opinions (judgments) of supervisors, department managers, experts, or others knowledgeable about the organization’s future employment needs. 德爾菲法Delphi techn

25、ique The Delphi technique is a method for obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts over two or more rounds.,差距,,德爾菲法的特征匿名性多次有控制的反饋綜合性德爾菲法的步驟確定預(yù)測(cè)題目，選定專家小組；設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查表，準(zhǔn)備有關(guān)材料； 征詢專家初次判斷意見；綜合整理收回的各

26、位專家初次判斷意見，作出定量化的歸納，加以必要說明。并反饋給各位專家，請(qǐng)他們?cè)俅嗡伎?，提出判斷意見；?jīng)過反復(fù)征詢意見后，做出預(yù)測(cè)值。,,德爾菲法的優(yōu)點(diǎn)：  （1） 各專家能夠在不受干擾的情況下，獨(dú)立、充分地表明自己的意見；  （2） 預(yù)測(cè)值是根據(jù)各位專家的意見綜合而成的，能夠發(fā)揮集體的智慧；  （3） 應(yīng)用面比較廣，費(fèi)用比較節(jié)省。德爾菲法的缺點(diǎn)：   在綜合預(yù)測(cè)值時(shí)，僅僅是根

27、據(jù)各專家的主觀判斷，缺乏客觀標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而且顯得強(qiáng)求一致。,趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法Trend analysis The study of a firm’s past employment needs over a period of years to predict future needs.回歸分析Regression analysis比率預(yù)測(cè)法Ratio analysisA forecasting technique for

28、determining future staff needs by using ratios between a causal factor and the number of employees needed.Assumes that the relationship between the causal factor and staffing needs is constant,,趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法例題 某公司過去8

29、年人員的數(shù)據(jù)如下，請(qǐng)預(yù)測(cè)今后第二年和第四年人力資源的需求是多少,趨勢(shì)線可以表示為,a b的確定根據(jù)最小平方法,,這樣就可以預(yù)測(cè)出今后第二年和第四年的人力資源需求為,,,Ratio Analysis比率分析,,# patients 病人 = 100# nurses 護(hù)士 = 25patient 病人/nurse 護(hù)士 ratio比率 = 4/1,If there are 315 patients,how many nurs

30、es are needed?如果有315個(gè)病人，需要多少護(hù)士？,人力資源供給的預(yù)測(cè)Forecasting Personnel supply,Forecasting the Supply of Outside CandidatesFactors impacting the supply of outside candidatesGeneral economic conditionsLabor MarketsExpected u

31、nemployment rateattraction of enterpriseAttitude toward job,,Forecasting the Supply of inside Candidates現(xiàn)有人力資源的分析 人力資源自身的自然變化（退休、生育），主要是對(duì)年齡、性別、身體狀況等等進(jìn)行分析。人員流動(dòng)的分析（重要前提假定：人員的質(zhì)量不發(fā)生變化） 人員由企業(yè)流出人員在企業(yè)內(nèi)部流動(dòng),,人員的質(zhì)量分析（

32、假定： 人員沒有發(fā)生流動(dòng)） 顯性原因：如工資的增加技能的培訓(xùn)隱形原因加班加點(diǎn)工作分享、縮短工作時(shí)間,人力資源供給預(yù)測(cè)的方法,Skill InventoriesReplacement ChartsMarkov Analysis,Internal supply Forecasting Tools,Skill InventoriesFiles of personnel education, experience, inter

33、ests, skills, etc., that allow managers to quickly match job openings with employee backgrounds.,,Personnel replacement chartsCompany records showing present performance and promotability of inside candidates for the mo

34、st important positions.,,,Figure 4.6,,人力資源水池模型,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,12,3,4,2+3,,,,1,(23),36,9,60,27,90,36,,,職位層次,,,A,B,,將提升到上一層次,,外部,招聘,,將提升到本層次,,退休＋辭職,（提升受阻）,A現(xiàn)有人員B可提升人員,,,,,,調(diào)入6人,現(xiàn)有30人,,調(diào)出和離職10人,未來供給28人,調(diào)入6人,現(xiàn)有50人,調(diào)出和離職1

35、2人,未來供給40人,,晉升5人,,降職3人,,晉升8人,降職3人,,降職4人,,內(nèi)部供給總量115人,,馬爾科夫模型是用來預(yù)測(cè)等時(shí)間間隔點(diǎn)上（一般為1年）各類人員分布狀況的一種動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)。Markov analysis shows the percentage (and actual number) of employees who remain in each job from one year to the next, as

36、well as the proportions of those who are promoted, transferred, or exit the organization.,,,,,,,,,某類人員的轉(zhuǎn)移率（p）=,本類人員原有數(shù)量,轉(zhuǎn)移出本類人員數(shù)量,,,例題1：已知三類人員的轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和現(xiàn)在三類人員分布狀況，如果每年向第一類補(bǔ)充80人，求未來人力資源供給分布狀況。,,,,,已知人員轉(zhuǎn)移率p，t＝0時(shí)人員分布情況，每年向A類補(bǔ)充人

37、數(shù)80人 根據(jù)馬爾可夫計(jì)算公式 可知，某類人員在t時(shí)刻的供給量N＝該類人員總數(shù)×留存率＋補(bǔ)充人數(shù). 其中，補(bǔ)充人數(shù)=下類人員總數(shù)×晉升率＋該類招聘人數(shù)＋上類人員總數(shù)×降職率,列表預(yù)測(cè)2007－2010年三類人員供給情況,例題2：假設(shè)某企業(yè)有四類職位，從高到低依次是A,B,C,D,各類人員的分布情況如下表，請(qǐng)預(yù)測(cè)一下未來人員的分布。,,,,解：,Balancing demand and supp

38、ly of HR人力資源供需的平衡,Dealing with an oversupply of personnel人員供給過剩處理,Freeze hiring 凍結(jié)雇傭Restrict overtime 限制超時(shí)Retrain/redeploy 重新培訓(xùn)/調(diào)動(dòng)Switch to part-time employees 轉(zhuǎn)成兼職員工Use unpaid vacations 采用無薪休

39、假,Use a shorter workweek 采用縮短的工作周Use pay reductions 采用減少工資Use sabbaticals 采用周期性休息Encourage early retirements 鼓勵(lì)提前退休,,Hire additional workers 雇傭另外的工人Improve productivity through training 通過培

40、訓(xùn)提高生產(chǎn)力Use overtime 采用超時(shí)Add additional shifts 增加另外的班次,Reassign jobs 重新分配工作Use temporary workers 使用短期工人Improve retention 改善留置率,,Dealing with an Undersupply of Personnel人員供給不足處理,Human Resource Plannin

41、g ProcessExternal EnvironmentInternal Environment,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Strategic Planning,Human Resource Planning,Forecasting Human Resource Requirements,,Comparing Requirements and Availability,Forecasting Human Resource Ava

42、ilability,Surplus of Workers,Demand = Supply,No Action,Restricted Hiring, Reduced Hours, Early Retirement, Layoff, Downsizing,Shortage of Workers,Recruitment,Selection,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Human Resources Planning Model,,

43、Employment Forecasting,,Supply Analysis,Balance Supply and Demand,,Leads to,Resultingin,CONSIDERATIONS,INTERNAL,RECRUITMENT,Full-Time Part-Time Recalls,REDUCTIONS,Terminations Layoffs Demotions Retirement,Staffing

44、Tables Markov Analysis Skills Inventories Management Inventories Replacement Charts Succession Planning,Product/Service Economics Technology Financial Resources Absenteeism/ Turnover Growth Management Philos