固定收益2019年度策略珍惜當(dāng)下

1、目錄120182018年債市整體走勢(shì)回溯年債市整體走勢(shì)回溯...............................................................................................................................................................................................

2、.......................................................................................................................................................................42通脹：通脹：CPICPI中樞小幅抬升，價(jià)格難共振中樞小幅抬升，價(jià)格難共振...............

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4、.....................................................................52.1關(guān)注豬肉疫情，CPI高點(diǎn)在明年上半年.................................................................................................................................

5、..............52.2PPI延續(xù)小幅回落態(tài)勢(shì)...............................................................................................................................................................................73經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力大，需求持續(xù)萎縮

6、經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力大，需求持續(xù)萎縮..............................................................................................................................................................................................................

7、........................................................................................................................113.1基建企穩(wěn)托底投資，但增速有限.................................................................................

8、...........................................................................113.2地產(chǎn)依然低迷，明年有待政策減壓.............................................................................................................................

9、.........................123.3消費(fèi)受地產(chǎn)拖累，下行明顯....................................................................................................................................................................133.4進(jìn)出口未來(lái)仍有壓力

10、...................................................................................................................................................................................134貨幣政策回顧與展望貨幣政策回顧與展望....................

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12、..................................................................................................................................145策略回顧與展望策略回顧與展望.........................................................................

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14、.................................................................................................17120182018年債市整體走勢(shì)回溯縱觀18年上半年，債市整體收益率大幅下行，推升債市走牛的因素主要來(lái)自于經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面下行的預(yù)期、海外地緣政治和貿(mào)易摩擦頻起、以及流動(dòng)性的邊際寬松。18年年初受監(jiān)管政策密集出臺(tái)的影響，10年期國(guó)債收益率曾上行至3

15、.98%附近，但這也是半年內(nèi)收益率最高點(diǎn)，之后一路下行至4月初的3.7%左右。1年期國(guó)債收益率下探至3.2%附近。這段期間，債市收益率的下行最先受益于流動(dòng)性的邊際寬松。1月下旬開(kāi)始，央行開(kāi)始呵護(hù)市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性，舉措包括臨時(shí)準(zhǔn)備金動(dòng)用安排（CRA）累計(jì)釋放臨時(shí)流動(dòng)性近2萬(wàn)億元，普惠金融定向降準(zhǔn)釋放長(zhǎng)期流動(dòng)性約4500億元，這都使得年初以來(lái)的資金面情況明顯好于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。雖然春節(jié)后迎來(lái)MLF到期、CRA到期和2月稅期，但由于金融機(jī)構(gòu)CRA到期節(jié)奏

16、與現(xiàn)金回籠大體匹配，二者得以對(duì)沖。3月初開(kāi)始，中美貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端開(kāi)啟，金融市場(chǎng)短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好驟降，同時(shí)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始擔(dān)憂國(guó)內(nèi)需求回落的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，也帶動(dòng)了國(guó)內(nèi)債市收益率繼續(xù)下行。4月央行開(kāi)啟降準(zhǔn)，次日國(guó)債期貨大幅跳空高開(kāi)，但急速下降的收益率似乎透支了降準(zhǔn)的利好作用，尤其是后來(lái)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始討論央行貨幣政策并未大幅轉(zhuǎn)向，未來(lái)流動(dòng)性寬裕的預(yù)期被消耗，之后債市基本處于震蕩整理階段。圖表圖表11818年債市收益率走勢(shì)回顧年債市收益率走勢(shì)回顧4.50001.00004.0